Author Archive: Matt Martell

A few weeks ago, I led the mailbag with some quick thoughts on the thrilling AL Central race between the White Sox and the Guardians. When I wrote that introduction, Cleveland had just won two of its final three regular-season games against Chicago, and the two teams were tied atop the division.

Neither club was all that good, but each was intriguing in its own way. The White Sox, of course, had the worst playoff odds of any team in the American League on Opening Day and were coming off three straight 100-loss seasons. The Guardians, meanwhile, were postseason regulars, and this year, they had trailed Chicago in the standings for most of the summer before mounting a September comeback. Cleveland maintained its division lead for the rest of the season, but only barely. The Guards finished 85-77; the Sox, 84-78. Their head-to-head records were also separated by just one game, with Chicago holding the advantage there. Now, as the two teams enter tonight’s ALDS Game 5 in Cleveland, the margin between them remains as thin as garlic slices in a mafia movie. Both clubs still aren’t exactly playing crisp baseball — the series has featured bewildering bullpen decisions, befuddling ABS challenges, and more hit-by-pitches (six) than home runs (four) — but they’ve been a ton of fun to watch.

In this week’s mailbag, we’re answering your questions on the worst regular-season players to start regularly for a playoff team, the best starting pitcher matchups in a postseason Game 3, and holy WAR. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — For one brief moment, all had been forgiven. The unreasonable hope, the unbearable burden, the unfulfilled potential — it all had led to this point, when the local kid and lifelong Yankee fan finally made good.

Anthony Volpe stepped into the box in the bottom of the sixth inning with a runner on first, two out, and the Yankees down by two and facing elimination in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. After taking a Griffin Jax sweeper in the dirt for a ball, the one-time second coming of Derek Jeter, who’d stalled and backtracked and flamed out in frustrating fashion, turned on a sinker running in on his hands and lifted a high-arching fly ball to left field that just cleared the wall for a game-tying home run. As he made his way around the bases, all the emotions of the last four years came pouring out of him.

But just after he crossed the plate, the six umpires came together and called for a crew chief review. Reality set in as the replay repeated on the jumbotron in center field, showing different angles of the same disappointing event. Several minutes of deliberation made it official: The home run was overturned. A fan in the first row had reached over the wall with both hands and touched the ball before it rolled up his arms and into his lap.

Volpe was awarded second base, as the umpires determined that the ball would not have been caught even if the fan hadn’t interfered with it. They also concluded that George Lombard Jr., who began the play on first and was running on contact with two outs, would’ve scored on the play. That run turned out to be the final one of the game for either team, as the Rays held on to beat the Yankees, 4-3, and complete the sweep. Read the rest of this entry »

Cam Schlittler threw the Red Sox a curveball in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series. Well, actually, he threw them a lot of curveballs — 32, to be exact.

In the Yankees’ resounding 9-0 win over their archrivals last week at Yankee Stadium, the 25-year-old flamethrower went 6 1/3 scoreless innings, giving up just two hits and one walk while striking out 10 and throwing a career-high 117 pitches. Except for the pitch count, his final line reflects the same dominance we’ve seen repeatedly throughout a 2026 season in which Schlittler went 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA, a 2.56 FIP, and 6.2 WAR across 193 2/3 innings. The difference this time was how he got there, and it poses a new challenge for opposing batters when he starts against the Rays in Game 2 of the ALDS on Monday night at Tropicana Field.

Schlittler turned to the curveball early and often, utterly baffling a Boston lineup that was geared up for his signature three-fastball repertoire. Instead, they got a heavy dose of the hook and couldn’t handle it. In Game 1, he threw his curveball 27.4% of the time. The Red Sox swung at 16 of the 32 curves they saw from Schlittler, whiffing on eight of them, fouling off six, and putting two in play; the first of those two fair balls was a softly hit lineout to shortstop in the fifth inning, while the second came when Wilyer Abreu lined the right-hander’s last pitch of the game to right field for a single. Four of Schlittler’s 10 strikeout pitches were curveballs, all during his first time through the order. Read the rest of this entry »

Today marks the start of the Division Series, and we can only hope that these four matchups are more exciting than three of the four first-round series. Excluding the Braves-Phillies series — which went the full three games, two of which featured late lead changes — the closest scoring margin in a Wild Card Series game was three runs, and there were more games decided by at least seven runs (three) than by three (two).

That’s not to say that these other series were snoozers. I covered the Yankees-Red Sox series, and the atmosphere in the Bronx made for an electric experience regardless of the final scores, while the energy pulsing through Petco Park for the Padres-Cubs games was palpable on the broadcast. That wasn’t the case in Houston, where the Astros fell behind early in both games and got booed for their poor play. But those two games were at least a bit closer, and it was still enjoyable enough to watch the White Sox win after three consecutive 100-loss seasons. The real issue was that the result of those three series never really felt in doubt after the winning teams jumped out to early leads. Here’s to more back-and-forth affairs and outcomes that hang in the balance.

In this week’s mailbag, we’re answering your questions about the ideal playoff format, whether the White Sox are benefiting from divine intervention, whether it’s better to have elite hitting and below-average pitching or vice versa in the postseason, and the highest single-season WAR for a player who finished in the negative. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve made it to the final weekend of the regular season, and while all but two of the 12 playoff teams have been determined, two divisions titles and one Wild Card berth are still up for grabs. Both the Guardians and White Sox have already clinched a spot in the American League bracket, but only one game separates them in the standings. Cleveland, the first-place team, needs to win the division outright because Chicago owns the tiebreaker. The stakes are high; the victor earns the second seed in the league, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage in the Division Series, while the loser has to play the entire best-of-three Wild Card Series on the road.

The club that finishes second will face either the Astros or the Rangers, who both lost Friday night and fell to 79-81. There’s a very real chance that AL West winner will become the first playoff team ever to finish a full-length season with a losing record. Houston holds the tiebreaker. This race is emblematic of two things wrong with the current rules: 1) We should not allow losing teams to make the postseason, and 2) ties should be settled by one-game playoffs, not math. As if to provide further support for my second point, over in the National League, the surging Diamondbacks are making a last-gasp bid to overcome the reeling Phillies for the final Wild Card spot. Riding a six-game winning streak into Saturday, Arizona is just one game behind the Phillies, but crucially, the Snakes would get in if they finish with the same record. The two teams split their six regular-season matchups — head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker — but the Diamondbacks have the better intra-divisional record, which is the second tiebreaker. Goofy! It’s still going to be a fun baseball weekend, and the playoffs are sure to be a thrill, but think of how much more excitement there would be if we had not one, not two, but three Game 163s on Monday. What could have been.

Before we get to this week’s mailbag, I have one quick programming note. We’ll still be doing our weekly mailbag during the postseason, but we might move around the specific day it runs depending on the playoff schedule. As we did last year, our plan is to do a mailbag before every postseason round, beginning with the Division Series. Also, in case you missed David Appelman’s announcement from Thursday, this year you will need a FanGraphs Membership to read our postseason coverage. You can find all the details in David’s post, but considering our mailbags are also exclusive to FanGraphs Members, most of you reading this probably won’t notice the change. However, what you will notice and appreciate is the other major part of David’s announcement: This October, we’re committed to having staff at every World Series game, allowing for additional reported work and greater access to players and team personnel, with more in-person coverage throughout the earlier rounds as well. In recent years, we’ve had in-person World Series coverage only when the games were played in a city where one of our writers lived. Now, we’ll be there no matter what. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to both keep reading this mailbag and get access to our postseason coverage, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

The most exciting story as we approach the final week of the regular season is, at least by my accounting, the race for first place in the American League Central. On one side, we have the Chicago White Sox, a team that two years ago broke the modern record for the most losses in a season. Their outlook entering this season reflected their recent history. On Opening Day, Chicago had the worst playoff odds in the AL, with a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs, a 0.6% chance of winning the division, and a 0.1% chance of securing a first-round bye. And yet: The White Sox held at least a share of the division lead for 96 days this year, including a 73-day stretch from the start of play on July 5 until the end of the day Wednesday, when the Cleveland Guardians won the rubber match of a three-game set against the South Siders.

Unlike Chicago, Cleveland has seven playoff berths, including six division titles, in the past 10 years. The Guardians are winning the same way they always do, with excellent pitching, defense, and baserunning. Now, their lineup is deeper than it’s been at any point in the 2020s, though it’s still not exactly good.

In Wednesday’s game, the Sox had a one-run lead over the Guards, who were batting in the bottom of the sixth with a runner on first, two out, and Austin Hedges — he of the lifetime 54 wRC+ — at the plate against the left-handed Hagen Smith, who had relieved lefty starter Anthony Kay the previous inning. Hedges walked, prompting White Sox manager Will Venable to replace Smith with yet another lefty, Sean Newcomb. Up next for Cleveland was backup center fielder Petey Halpin, a left-handed hitter who was in the lineup for the injured lefty killer Angel Martínez. Halpin entered the game 1-for-35 on the season against southpaws, and though he did record a single in his first at-bat against Kay, what happened next still ranks among the most unexpected events of the 2026 campaign. Facing a 3-1 count, Halpin turned on a belt-high sinker and launched a no-doubt three-run homer to put the Guardians on top for good.

After an off day Thursday, Cleveland began a three-game series at home against the Athletics on Friday, while Chicago played the second of its four-game set against Detroit. As of Friday afternoon, our Playoff Odds gave the Sox a 50.9% chance to win the division and an 80.3% shot to make the postseason; for the Guards, those odds were, respectively, 49.1% and 77.0%.

We’ll talk a little bit more about the Guardians in this week’s mailbag, when we answer a question about shortstop Brayan Rocchio. We’ll also discuss a bonkers idea to get rid of batting lineups and the shortest season-long winning streak for a team that finished with the best record in baseball. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

In last week’s mailbag, I ran through the list of teams that posted losing seasons and finished with positive run differentials. The question was inspired by this year’s Tigers, who were 64-75 (.460) when I wrote my response the previous afternoon, despite outscoring their opponents by 0.34 runs per game. I wrapped up my answer by mentioning that the Tigers could become the first team ever to lose 90 or more games during a season in which they scored more runs than they allowed. So before we get to this week’s mailbag, I’d like to provide an update on Detroit’s chance at history.

As of Friday afternoon, the Tigers had gone 3-4 in their past seven games, bringing their overall record to 67-79 (.459) with a per-game run differential of 0.377. Fittingly, all four of their losses in that span were decided by one run, while their margin of victory in their three wins was +12. They are the worst team in the majors this season in one-run games, with a record of 14-27 (.341). Their .459 winning percentage on the season puts them on pace for between 87 and 88 losses this year.

This week, I’ll answer the inverse of that question and discuss teams that finished above .500 with negative run differentials. We’ll also see how different baseball would be if teams could use a DH for every position, find the teams that score the most runs on bases-loaded walks and hit-by-pitches, and look at how teams should deploy their relievers in the ninth and 10th innings of tie games. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Angels unexpectedly announced that longtime owner Arte Moreno had agreed to sell the organization to Stan Kroenke, the icositetra-billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Rams of the NFL, the Denver Nuggets of the NBA, the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL, the Colorado Rapids of MLS, the Colorado Mammoth of the National Lacrosse League, and Arsenal Football Club, both the men’s team of the English Premier League and the women’s team of the Super League. The deal is reportedly for $4 billion, a record price for the sale of a controlling stake in an MLB franchise, surpassing the $3.9 billion sale of the San Diego Padres to Kwanza Jones and José E. Feliciano earlier this summer.

Forbes estimates Kroenke’s net worth to be $24.3 billion, making him the new wealthiest MLB owner, ahead of Steve Cohen, who’s worth about $23 billion. Ben Clemens wrote about the sale on Wednesday, and I’d encourage you to check it out for everything that you need to know about the Angels under Moreno and the ever-increasing values of MLB franchises. That second part is what I want to stress, especially as it pertains to the seemingly inevitable lockout coming this offseason. Rob Manfred and the 30 team owners are going to push for a salary cap, and to support their case, many of them will both cite the need for competitive balance and claim that baseball is a bad business. When they do, think back on the two record-setting sales from this year and understand the real reason why management has shut down the sport. But let’s not get too caught up in the doom and gloom right now, because the upshot of the sale is the Angels’ future looks a whole lot more promising under Kroenke than it did under Moreno.

That’s the last we’ll talk about the business of baseball today. Instead, in this week’s mailbag, we’ll answer your questions about teams that finished the season below .500 with a positive run differential, the single-game feat most correlated with career success, the pitchers who had the longest careers while pitching their first and last games on the same field, and the ideal hot dog per game ratio. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Three months ago, when MLB and the MLB Players Association made their first proposals for baseball’s next collective bargaining agreement, I wrote about how these offers were designed to be rejected, and that they would continue to be until January at the earliest. For that reason, I haven’t devoted much space in these mailbags to the various rounds of bargaining that have taken place this summer. We have real baseball games to cover.

That said, I couldn’t help but laugh when I saw the most drastic change in MLB’s latest proposal: In the offer sent to the union on Thursday, the league proposed instituting two free agent signing periods during the offseason, the first stretching from the first day of the Winter Meetings until December 21, and the second beginning the first week of February. The first period of no free agent signings would allow teams to trade players and re-sign their own free agents, while the second would be a complete blackout of big league transactions. So why is that funny? Well, because the league made clear that the players wouldn’t be able to get these free agent signing periods unless they agreed to a salary cap, as if the transaction limitations would be enough of a sweetener to get the players to give in. The union doesn’t want free agent signing periods because they would give ownership greater leverage during negotiations, potentially resulting in unfavorable contracts. Bruce Meyer, the interim executive director of the MLBPA, called the proposal “unserious.” We’ve got a long way to go.

If you want to read more about the latest proposal, you should check out Michael Baumann’s writeup from Friday. Otherwise, let’s get on to this week’s mailbag. We’ll be answering your questions about Julio Rodríguez’s hitting, the greatest World Series ever, and what would happen if home runs became automatic triples. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

As you all probably know, at the start of every season, the FanGraphs staff puts together our bold predictions for the coming year. Each is, to varying degrees, plausible but unlikely, which is what makes it such a fun exercise. Anyway, entering the 2025 season, my bold prediction was: Corbin Carroll will become the fifth-ever 20/20/20/20 player — 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 home runs, and 20 stolen bases in a single season — joining Frank Schulte in 1911, Willie Mays in 1957, and Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins, who both did it in 2007. Carroll ultimately fell just three triples short of the threshold, while tallying 32 doubles, 31 homers, and 32 steals.

I decided not to run it back this year, figuring that wouldn’t be as fun, though I am very much still rooting for it to happen. The 20/20/20/20 Club is one of the most exclusive baseball has to offer. Pulling it off requires a precise combination of power, speed and instincts, and it has to happen at the exact right moment in a player’s career. As I wrote in my bold prediction: “A player needs to have enough pop to hit 20 homers, but not so much that the majority of his extra-base hits land in the seats. He also needs the speed to steal bases and stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. His instincts must be sharp, so he can know when to attempt the extra base without running into outs.”

Last Saturday, when I saw that Carroll had doubled and tripled in a 10-3 Diamondbacks win over the Braves, I pulled up his player page to check on his progress. He was up to 26 doubles, 15 triples, 18 homers, and 16 steals. He stole a base the next day, and after going without an extra-base hit in Arizona’s three-game series against the Red Sox, Carroll entered play Friday at 26 doubles, 15 triples, 18 homers, and 17 steals with 34 games left to play. This prompted my own question for this week’s mailbag, which I will get to momentarily. We’ll also answer your questions on the worst player to ever hit three home runs in a game, the biggest drop-off for a player in the season after finishing second in the MVP voting, and teams missing the playoffs despite leading the league in run differential. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »