Author Archive

In a Flurry of Moves, the Dodgers Maintain Continuity While Eying a Three-Peat

Nick Turchiaro and Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

While winning three World Series with the Dodgers, Max Muncy and Enrique Hernández have both made their marks in October, with the former setting the franchise record for postseason home runs (16) and the latter doing so for games played (92). Both will remain in Dodger Blue for awhile longer, with a chance to increase those totals — and chase a third consecutive championship. On Thursday, a day ahead of their pitchers and catchers reporting to Camelback Ranch, the Dodgers announced that Muncy has agreed to an extension for 2027, and that Hernández, a free agent, will again return to the fold. A day earlier, Los Angeles announced that it had re-signed righty Evan Phillips, who missed last year’s postseason run due to Tommy John surgery and was non-tendered in November. Amid the ensuing roster crunch, the Dodgers designated catcher Ben Rortvedt for assignment for the second time this winter, and traded previously DFA’d lefty Anthony Banda to the Twins for international bonus money.

That’s a lot to pick through, creating ripples up and down the roster. We’ll start with Muncy, who with the retirement of Clayton Kershaw is now the longest-tenured Dodger, having joined the team in 2018. The 35-year-old slugger was already signed for 2026, because in November the Dodgers picked up the $10 million option on his previous two-year, $24 million extension. His new contract — his fourth extension in the past six years, all of them so team-friendly that he’s never had a base salary above $13.5 million — guarantees him another $10 million, with $7 million for his 2027 salary and another $3 million as a buyout for a $10 million club option for ’28.

Those are bargain prices given the production and track record of Muncy, who has evolved from a cast-off by the A’s into a two-time All-Star and a pillar of the Dodgers lineup. While he was limited to 100 games in 2025 due to a bone bruise in his left knee — suffered on July 2, moments before Kershaw notched his 3,000th career strikeout — and then an oblique strain in mid-August, he hit .243/.376/.470 with 19 home runs in 388 plate appearances. Both his 137 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR were his highest since his All-Star 2021 campaign, but hardly out of character. Limited to 73 games in 2024 due to an oblique strain and a displaced rib, he hit .232/.358/.494 (133 wRC+) with 15 homers and 2.3 WAR in just 293 plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »


Finding Homes: Free Agents Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Civale, Jonah Heim

Kevin Jairaj, Patrick Gorski, Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Jordan Montgomery helped the Rangers win their first World Series in 2023, but since then, things haven’t gone so well for him. First, he had a rough trip through free agency, then pitched poorly after signing a one-year deal with Arizona, left Scott Boras’ agency, publicly blasted Boras, got blasted by Diamondbacks managing partner Ken Kendrick… and underwent his second Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of the 2025 season. While rehabbing, he was even traded to the Brewers in a salary dump. After all that drama, now he’s a Ranger again.

On Wednesday morning, the day after Rangers pitchers and catchers reported to the team’s spring training facility in Surprise, Arizona, the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant reported that the 33-year-old lefty will join Texas on a one-year deal with a $1.25 million base salary and as-yet-unreported incentives. Montgomery had his surgery last April 1, so he won’t be ready until sometime in midseason, but the hope is that he can help the Rangers down the stretch.

With camps opening this week, Montgomery isn’t the only free agent who’s found a new home. On Tuesday, fellow starter Aaron Civale signed a one-year contract with the A’s, while Montgomery’s former Rangers batterymate Jonah Heim inked a one-year deal with the Braves. I’ll round all of these up below. Read the rest of this entry »


Justin Time: Verlander Rejoins Tigers as Camp Opens

Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last week was a huge one for the Tigers’ rotation. First, Framber Valdez agreed to terms on a three-year, $115 million deal, and then Tarik Skubal won a record-setting $32 million salary in arbitration. On Tuesday, the day before the team’s pitchers and catchers were scheduled to report to the Tigers’ spring training facilities in Lakeland, Florida, that rotation was in the news again, as Justin Verlander agreed to a reunion via a one-year deal. Shortly afterwards, the team revealed that Reese Olson, who was already reportedly behind schedule, recently underwent surgery for a torn labrum and will miss the season. Additionally, the Tigers added free agent outfielder Austin Slater on a minor league deal.

First and foremost, this is both a homecoming for Verlander, the best right-handed pitcher in team history by WAR (57.9), and potentially his last lap, as he’ll turn 43 on February 20, and will be the majors’ oldest player so long as Rich Hill doesn’t mount a comeback. Drafted out of Old Dominion with the second overall pick in 2004, Verlander debuted with a pair of starts for the Tigers in July 2005, then spent nearly 12 full seasons in Detroit (2006–17) before being traded to the Astros on August 31, 2017. During that time, he won the American League Rookie of the Year award (2006), as well as the AL MVP and the first of his three Cy Youngs (both 2011), while helping the Tigers to four division titles, a Wild Card berth, and two pennants (2006, ’12); he also threw the first two of his three no-hitters for them, in 2007 and ’11. He collected more hardware in Houston in the form of two Cy Youngs and two World Series rings, but while he may have cemented his Hall of Fame credentials elsewhere, odds are a Tigers cap will adorn his plaque.

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Verlander’s contract is for $13 million, though $11 million of that is deferred on a schedule that begins paying out in 2030. While that will bring the average annual value of the deal down a bit, the Tigers now project to pay the Competitive Balance Tax for the first time since 2017; according to RosterResource, their $256.3 million estimated luxury tax payroll is squarely over the first threshold of $244 million. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/10/26

12:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Happy pitchers and catchers day to all, even if your team — those besides the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Giants, Braves, and Red Sox — reports tomorrow or Thursday instead of today

12:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: You can check that information here if you don’t know. https://www.mlb.com/news/spring-training-2026-first-workout-dates

12:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: If you missed it, my latest piece was a tribute to a pair of rubber-armed lefties from the 1960s and ’70s, namely Mickey Lolich (who passed away last week) and Wilbur Wood (who passed away in mid-January). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-300-a-tribute-to-the-ultra-durable-mic…

12:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: A few of you asked/requested I write about Wood but I was swamped by Hall of Fame coverage at the time so couldn’t get to it but… well, Father Time remains undefeated.

12:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Lolich is the third member of the Tigers for whom I’ve written a tribute during my time at FanGraphs after AL Kaline and Bill Freehan. From the 1968 Cardinals I also wrote up Lou Brock, Orlando Cepeda, and Bob Gibson when they passed. The World Series took place before I was born but I’ve got a pretty decent working knowledge of it.

12:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: anyway, next on my plate is a roundup of some smaller transactions as camps open. We’ll see just who that contains when the bell rings. And now, on with the show…

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The 300: A Tribute to the Ultra-Durable Mickey Lolich and Wilbur Wood

Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Network.

All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Denny McLain was the ace of the 1968 Tigers, going 31-6 with a 1.96 ERA en route to both the American League Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards, but during that year’s World Series against the defending champion Cardinals, he was outshined by teammate Mickey Lolich. While McLain started and lost Games 1 and 4 before recovering to throw a complete-game victory in Game 6, Lolich went the distance in winning Games 2, 5, and 7, the last of which secured the Tigers’ first championship in 23 years. By outdueling Bob Gibson — the previous year’s World Series MVP and the author of a 1968 season to rival McLain’s — in Game 7, Lolich secured spots both in Fall Classic lore and the pantheon of Detroit sports heroes.

Lolich died last Wednesday at an assisted living facility in Sterling Heights, Michigan at the age of 85. Beyond his World Series heroics, he was a three-time All-Star with a pair of 20-win seasons and top-three Cy Young finishes. A power pitcher whose fastball was clocked as high as 96 mph, he struck out more than 200 hitters in a season seven times, with a high of 308 in 1971. Even today, he’s fifth in strikeouts by a lefty with 2,832, behind only Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, CC Sabathia, and Clayton Kershaw, and 23rd among all pitchers.

But for as much as anything, Lolich is remembered for piling up innings. In that 1971 season, he went 25-14 while making 45 starts, completing 29 of them and totaling 376 innings — leading the AL in all of those categories except losses — with a 2.92 ERA (124 ERA+). He also topped 300 innings in each of the next three seasons, including 327 1/3 in 1972, when he went 22-14 with a 2.50 ERA.

“No pitcher in 125 years of Tigers big-league life was so tied to durability, or so paired his seeming indestructibility with such excellence during his time in Detroit,” wrote the Detroit News’ Lynn Henning in his tribute to Lolich. “No pitcher in Tigers history quite matched his knack for taking on inhuman workloads that could forge even greater gallantry at big-game moments.” Read the rest of this entry »


February Free Agent Watch: Framber’s Off the Board But Rotation Options Abound

Joe Rondone/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK and Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Two years ago, Zac Gallen was one of the top pitchers in baseball. Building upon a breakout 2022 season in which he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting, he went 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, and 5.2 WAR in 210 innings for the Diamondbacks, making his first NL All-Star team, helping an upstart Arizona squad reach the World Series — where he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his Game 5 start — and placing third for the Cy Young. Since then, however, it’s been mostly downhill. After hitting free agency on the heels of a season in which his ERA ballooned to 4.83 and his WAR dipped to 1.1, the 30-year-old righty remains unsigned, and pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training camps next week.

With Wednesday’s news that Framber Valdez signed a three-year, $115 million deal with the Tigers, Gallen is the only remaining free agent from among the nine who declined $22.025 million qualifying offers. He’s also the best-available player remaining on our Top 50 Free Agents list — where Ben Clemens placed him 19th — but hardly the only one. In fact, one can almost cobble together a passable rotation out of the starters still on the market, namely Gallen (19th), Chris Bassitt (35th), Lucas Giolito (36th), Zack Littell (49th), and Justin Verlander (50th). They’d be a stronger unit if we turned the clock back to 2022 or ’23, but for ’26 those five project to combine for 9.1 WAR, which would tie the White Sox for 27th on our Depth Charts. With Valdez instead of Giolito in my first draft of this article — going by 2026 projected WAR, the latter’s ranking doesn’t match where Ben placed him — the quintet projected to produce 11.4 WAR, which would rank 19th, ahead of three playoff teams from last year, namely the Cubs, Guardians, and Padres. Neither of those totals includes reinforcements who would have improved their standing a bit, since no team gets by on just five starters alone.

In parallel with Tuesday’s roundup of the best position players still available, what follows here is a run through the best free agent starters who’ve yet to sign. I’ll be working in order of projected WAR. Read the rest of this entry »


February Free Agent Watch: Useful Role Players Available to a Good Home

Nathan Ray Seebeck and Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

If you were looking to reunite the 2019 Yankees for some reason, you could get a jump on rounding them up using our Free Agent Tracker. Based on our Depth Charts projected WAR for the upcoming season, four of the top 10 unsigned position players logged playing time with that 2019 squad, which in that season of the juiced ball hit more homers (306) than all but two teams in major league history. That tally of free agents doesn’t even include DJ LeMahieu, whom they released last summer and still owe $15 million for 2026. Several other Yankees of more recent vintage dot the list as well. Does everybody else know something that Brian Cashman doesn’t?

Perhaps, but that’s outside the scope of this article, and you’re going to have to wait a few paragraphs for those names. With the calendar having flipped to February, and pitchers, catchers, and World Baseball Classic-participating position players all due to report to spring training next week, it’s worth taking a look at the most notable free agents still searching for landing spots. Just one of the position players still available cracked our Top 50 Free Agents list, but several of the others are capable role players. I’ll take a look at the best of them here, and round up the pitchers — a group that includes three starters from our Top 50, including fourth-ranked Framber Valdez — in my next installment.

I’ll generally be working in order from highest projected WAR to lowest, though I’ve grouped some of these players — generally the ones coming off a combination of injuries and subpar performances — at the end. And yes, I’ll get to those 2019 Yankees along the way. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/3/26

12:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Greetings from Brooklyn, where it’s almost freezing — which seems genuinely balmy after temperatures in the teens all last week. We’re apparently in the midst of the longest stretch of sub-freezing days in NYC in the past 65 years. Hoping my new space heater arrives today, but wish it had been around last week (I have a lower-powered but less energy-efficient one).

12:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: After taking a few days off last week to recuperate from te Hall of Fame election cycle crunch, yesterday I wrote about the Giants signing Luis Arraez to a one-year deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-second-thought-giants-sign-free-agent-l…

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Today I have the first of a two-piece series covering the still-available free agents. This one rounds up the position players and will probably go up while I’m mid-chat; apologies if I have to duck out here and there to answer an editorial query.

12:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Two things to note before we get started, both of which went by on Bluesky. First, today is the day that the BBWAA has published the ballots of all Hall of Fame voters who granted permission; apparently it includes about 100 which aren’t in Ryan Thibodaux’s Tracker. He and his team will be adding those. https://bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballots/

12:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Second, distinguished FG alum Eno Sarris has updated Stuff+ and the new data will be making its way to our site soon (https://bsky.app/profile/enosarris.bsky.social/post/3mdxtcmtwi2)

12:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show

Read the rest of this entry »


On Second Thought: Giants Sign Free Agent Luis Arraez

David Frerker-Imagn Images

After getting what amounted to replacement level production at second base last season, the Giants have a new man for the keystone. The good news is that he’s a three-time batting champion, and he’s not outrageously expensive. The bad news is that lately he hasn’t been an incredibly productive hitter despite his high batting averages, and what’s more, second base could be a stretch. However it shakes out, on Saturday the Giants agreed to terms with free agent Luis Arraez on a one-year, $12 million deal.

Arraez, who will turn 29 on April 9, spent last season and most of the previous one with the Padres after being acquired from the Marlins in a May 4, 2024 trade. While he won his third straight batting title in 2024 and made his third consecutive All-Star team, his time with San Diego was one of diminishing returns on both sides of the ball. Last year again he led the NL with 181 hits, but his .292/.327/.392 slash line only amounted to a 104 wRC+, the lowest mark of his career and down from a 109 wRC+ (on .314/.346/.392 hitting) in 2024. By comparison, he hit for a 130 wRC+ (.316/.375/.420) when he won the AL batting title with the Twins in 2022 and a 131 wRC+ (.354/.393/.469) when he won the NL batting title in ’23. He slipped from being more or less a three-win player (6.1 WAR in 2022–23) to a one-win player (2.0 WAR in 2024–25).

Arraez is an odd duck, an anachronism in that the things he’s best at don’t fit this historical moment particularly well. At a time when home run and strikeout rates are near their all-time highs and batting averages closer to an all-time low, he’s the game’s most contact-oriented hitter, as well as the active leader in batting average (.317). That makes him a fun player to theorize about, as colleague Davy Andrews did when he recently pondered the possibility of Arraez signing with the Rockies, whose spacious ballpark would’ve provided him with the most room to run up his batting average on balls in play by dumping single after single in front of outfielders playing deep. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/26

12:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s a very chilly day here in Brooklyn (21 degrees) with the snow piled high on the curb. I think we got 10-12″ on Sunday. My basement office is cold enough to hang meat, to borrow a phrase from the late, great voice of the Utah Jazz, Hot Rod Hundley.

12:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I published the final article of this year’s Hall of Fame election cycle, my look at the next five elections. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peering-into-the-crystal-ball-the-next-fiv…

12:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: For the first time, I went back and audited my own performance at this exercise, which has always been more art than science. Last week of course I had the Hall of Fame results (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/centers-of-attention-carlos-beltan-and-and…) and the candidate-by-candidate breakdown (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2026-…)

12:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Finally, I’m one of four FanGraphs writers nominated for a SABR Analytics Conference Research Award. You can vote here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-sabr-analytics-conference-research-aw…

12:04
Carter: Hi Jay! Hope all is well and thank you for standing up for Minnesota.

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Gotta stand up for what’s right! Melt ICE

And now, on with the show

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