At the outset of the World Series, I noted that the Brewers had reached the Fall Classic for the first time in 44 years despite not getting much length from their starting pitchers. Through the National League Championship Series, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser and company averaged just under four innings per turn, an average that didn’t clear that low bar until The Miz delivered 5 2/3 shutout innings in Wednesday night’s World Series clincher. Along with the timely hitting of Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Cooper Pratt, a major key to Milwaukee’s dominant postseason run was its bullpen. Even in the team’s Game 4 defeat, Aaron Ashby set a postseason record by extending his streak of scoreless innings to 18, and as a group, Brewers relievers delivered one of the best combined showings in postseason history.
I dug into Ashby’s performance last week, noting the way his over-the-top delivery and high velocity combine to create unfamiliar angles and elite vertical movement for his repertoire, giving both lefties and righties fits. The 28-year-old lefty was even more dominant in his three World Series appearances:
Aaron Ashby’s 2026 Postseason Performance
Series
Opponent
G
IP
BFP
H
BB
SO
ERA
FIP
NLDS
Padres
3
5.2
19
2
2
5
0.00
2.40
NLCS
Dodgers
3
6.2
23
2
1
6
0.00
1.75
WS
Rays
3
5.2
18
1
0
9
0.00
-0.08
Total
9
18.0
60
5
3
20
0.00
1.38
That’s a 33.3% strikeout rate and a 5.0% walk rate overall, and a 50.0% strikeout rate (with no walks) against the Rays. Ashby threw 1 2/3 innings in Game 1, coming on in relief of Abner Uribe with one out in the seventh and setting down all five batters he faced. He added another 1 2/3 innings in Game 2, this time relieving Uribe with one out in the eighth. Though he had to work around a leadoff double by Jonny DeLuca to start the ninth (the only baserunner he allowed all series), he closed out the game, becoming the 10th pitcher with at least three saves of longer than three outs in a single Wild Card era postseason — or the 15th, depending upon how many times you want to count Mariano Rivera. Read the rest of this entry »
There’s plenty to be said about the individual performances of this year’s champions. William Contreras won World Series MVP honors by hitting .381/.435/.429, throwing out four would-be basestealers, and winning 10 out of 13 ABS challenges. Jackson Chourio gave Contreras a run for the money in the MVP race, tying a 98-year-old record held by Babe Ruth by collecting 10 hits over the first four games of the World Series, and leading all players with 11 hits and a .458 batting average. Cooper Pratt collected six straight hits in Games 4 and 5, batting .421/.455/.684 while leading all players in slugging percentage and RBI (seven). Aaron Ashby set a postseason reliever record with 18 consecutive scoreless innings, and allowed just one baserunner in 5.1 World Series innings while striking out nine. Likely National League Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski, seemingly low on gas during the first two rounds of the postseason, bookended the World Series with a pair of strong starts totaling 10.2 innings while allowing just one run. Speaking of bookends, Chourio, Contreras, and reliever Antonio Senzatela were all members of Team Venezuela’s World Baseball Classic-winning squad, joining Alex Bregman and Luke Gregerson of the 2017 Astros and Team USA as the only players to win both championships in the same calendar year. Read the rest of this entry »
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to what will be my final chat of the 2026 baseball season, as we're somewhere from one to four games away from the World Series wrapping up.
Jay Jaffe
That escalated quickly last night, didn't it? The Brewers eight-run fifth inning turned the series from a still-competitive one to a steamrolling in the making. Given the uncertainty of the upcoming offseason, I wouldn't mind a longer series, but I don't blame Brewers fans for being over the moon right now.
Jay Jaffe
Anyway, yesterday I wrote about Rays catcher Liam Hicks and two plays from Game 2 that loomed large — and then he didn't even get into Game 3 because the Brewers started lefty Robert Gasser. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/liam-hicks-has-been-a-fine-catch…
Jay Jaffe
Before I dig in, a reminder that to submit a question, you have to be logged into your FanGraphs user account (a paid membership isn't necessary but thank you if you're among our subscribers). And a quick announcement of some upcoming dates of interest:
Jay Jaffe
The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot for Managers, Executives and Umpires will be announced on Monday, November 2, with the results announced on Sunday, December 6. |
The dates for the BBWAA ballot are Monday, November 16 and Tuesday, January 1
Jay Jaffe
Our site is dark for election day, November 3, so in all likelihood my first look will come the day after that. And now, on with the show.
crew87
Excellent article on Liam Hicks. Do you have a sense of why he didn't play yesterday?
Jay Jaffe
Hicks really scuffled against left-handed pitching this season (.192/.274/.231, 45 wRC+) where the righty-swinging Nick Fortes was basically platoon-neutral, hitting 252/.315/.361(91 wRC+) against lefties.
brewballsandstrikes
If the Brewers break out the brooms once again tonight, where do you think their 2026 postseason run ranks among the all-time great playoff performances?
Jay Jaffe
I'm working on a piece to answer that question 😉
Alex Remington
The Rays baserunning has seemed as error-prone as the 2006 Tigers' pitcher fielding – it's not the only reason they've lost, as the offense has been disastrously thin too, but for a team that's scored 7 runs in three games, it's been pretty amazing to watch them get 3 CS AND get thrown out at home from short left field! Are there any similar baserunning collapses like this that you can remember?
Jay Jaffe
I don't have a comprehensive answer for this but just last fall, Addison Barger was doubled off second base to end Game 6 and then Isiah Kiner-Falefa got a poor jump and failed to slide into home plate in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7. Those plays loom quite large given the outcome of the series.
Jay Jaffe
I suppose it's unsporting to pile on the 1991 Braves for Ron Gant getting pulled off first base by the Twins' Kent Hrbek in Game 2 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiraekmCNv4) but Lonnie Smith's subsequent failure to score from second on a Terry Pendleton double in the eighth inning of a scoreless Game 7 was a huge gaffe in what became a 1-0 Twins win in 10 innings (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiraekmCNv4)
Anonymous Member #46
What will it take for Tampa Bay to win four straight and take the World Series?
Jay Jaffe
A decision by the Brewers to move back to Seattle and return to being the Pilots. Given a likely territorial dispute with the Mariners, I don't see this getting wrapped up by first pitch tonight at 8ish pm ET.
Jay Jaffe
Beyond that, I think it will take some Gashouse Gorilla-like rallies by the Rays, but I'm not holding my breath.
grandbranyan
Since Murphy took over in 2024, Brewers hitters have scored the most runs in each of the RISP and Two Out splits. Over that same time frame Brewers pitchers have the lowest wOBA and fewest runs allowed in each of the RISP and Two Outs splits. Is this as close as we might get to seeing something like a manager's influence on his team's mindset / level of determination showing up in the stats?
Jay Jaffe
I wouldn't lay it all on Murphy so much as crediting it as an organizational philosophy and manifestation involving both the pitching side and the hitting side. Coaches and front offices need to find the right players and supplement them with the right instruction and data to pull that off.
Jay Jaffe
It's still damn impressive and, assuming the Brewers do take the series at some point, it will be quite the organizational accomplishment.
triplesandtea
How is Brooklyn these days?
Jay Jaffe
Autumn in Brooklyn is lovely. Recently I joined Citi Bike so I can now bike around Prospect Park as an exercise option, and seeing the leaves change color is a nice little treat that I associate with that.
drplantwrench
both the devil rays and brewers have fantastic jerseys. when is the fangraphs article about wearing a great jersey influencing win probability coming out?
Jay Jaffe
I thought Monday's Devil Rays throwback jersey was quite silly. As the D-Rays, they never won more than 70 games, and reached that mark just once. The franchise's exorcism of the Devil coincided with their sudden rise to relevance in 2008, when they won their first pennant. Why they would want to invoke the bad old days is absolutely beyond me.
On the other hand I generally love the Brewers' uniforms, with the powder blues being my favorites
StuShea
What strategy do you see the mets adopting for 2027? Do they run this back? Thanks.
Jay Jaffe
I absolutely can't see them running back this year's squad. We'll see what happens with Bo Bichette's player option — and the CBA's tax penalties, sigh — but I suspect they'll make an effort to lean into the youth movement even if it means eating some salary.
Andrew G
With the potential bookends of WBC title and WS have other players had the year(s) that Contreras and Chourio have had?
Jay Jaffe
I believe that Alex Bregman and Luke Gregerson in 2017, via Team USA and the Astros, are the only ones to do it thus far.
kcglaser
I know in my heart that Yelich isn't going to make the HOF. Let's say he has 5 more mid seasons and somehow gets to 2500 hits and 300 HR – that still won't do it, will it? Especially if they're at DH?
Jay Jaffe
I don't see that as likely to be enough. He had big ssons of 7+ bWAr in 2018 and '19 but otherwise hasn't had a single 5.0-WAR season (4.9 in 2016) and then nothing else above 3.8.
tjcook87
Who’re you most looking forward to appearing on the ballot? Who do you wish to get a look that you’re least certain will appear? I think for the latter, I would want Bill White to come back for a second look, but I’m not optimistic there’ll be room for him to get a fair shake in voting.
Jay Jaffe
I suspect that White receiving the Buck O'Neil Award this past summer may mean he won't be on the ballot, and certainly won't be particularly well positioned if some combination of Bruce Bochy, Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Joe West, Dave Dombrowski, Billy Beane, and Theo Epstein are all on there (which isn't to say they will all be on there). I'll be most excited for Baker's appearance given the way the baseball world came around on him during his final years managing.
grandbranyan
If the Brewers finish things off today with an 11 W – 1 L postseason and the first ever eight game LCS/WS sweep (on top of their 103 regular season wins) did we just witness a Top Ten single season ever? Looks like other WS winners with at least 114 combined wins have been 1998 NYY (125), 2018 BOS (119), 2022 HOU (117), 1986 NYM (116), 1970 BAL (115), 1975 CIN (115), 1909 PIT (114), 1927 NYY (114), 2009 NYY (114), and 2016 CHC (114).
Jay Jaffe
Good question, one I'll try to address in the aforementioned piece.
crew87
If you're Kevin Cash, what's your pitching plan for game 4 and 5? Game 4 is a kitchen sink game, and then figure out Game 5 when it comes, but would you even consider Rasmussen for either game?
Jay Jaffe
Well, as we heard early in last night's game, the original plan was to go with Nick Martinez for Game 5. I suspect they stick with that because bringing Rasmussen back on three days of rest, after throwing 89 pitches in Game 2, isn't likely to boost their odds, paritcularly when going up against Misiorowski.
tjcook87
In a hypothetical Game Six/Game Seven scenario, what former Brewers would most hype up the crowd for a first pitch? How loud a response would CC Sabathia generate, for example?
Jay Jaffe
Well, they went with their Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Bud Selig before Game 1, and Paul Molitor before Game 2. If you're thinking in terms of franchise icons, the next in line is probably Ryan Braun. In terms of other recent icons, Prince Fielder certainly spent a lot longer in Milwaukee than Sabathia, who's really much more associated with the Yankees now that he's got the Hall of Fame plaque, the Yankee Stadium plaque, and the retired jersey number. Stars from the 1982 team would include Cecil Cooper and Gorman Thomas. I don't have a great feel for who would generate the loudest response but I think fans would be happy to see any or all of them, though I strongly suspect this series won't get back to Milwaukee.
Eshan Mehere
brian cashman has to be in the HOF conversation no? I mean 29 consecutive winning seasons is ridiculous. also is there any chance milwaukee sells high on garrett mitchell
Jay Jaffe
For sure, eventually. Cashman is too young to be placed on the ballot while still active. A manager has to be 65 or older and 6 months into retirement to be eligible, while an exec has to be 70 or older (can still be active).
drplantwrench
Do you think the crowd being mostly/substantially brewers fans points to the unhealthy state of baseball fandom in tampa bay?
Jay Jaffe
not particularly. The more lopsided a series, the less likely fans of that team are to shell out hundreds or thousands of dollars per ticket. I'd say this is more a commentary on the enthusiasm of Brewers fans willing to travel and to pay big bucks.
tjcook87
Ew Joe West
Jay Jaffe
Indeed.
ResumeMan
Someone in Ben's chat yesterday said they hope the "45 degree rule" on checked swings that's being tested in the minors doesn't get adopted in MLB because "it will advantage the hitters." But the hitters *need* advantages, they're totally outclassed right now. If this rule can shave off a few K's and also give them a split-second more time to commit, all to the good. If that results in too many dingers, maybe then you can soften the ball.
Jay Jaffe
While I haven't done any research on the leagues that have experiemented with it, a 45-degree rule sounds quite reasonable AND I think could slightly nudge offense upward while lowering strikeout rates without forcing pitchers to do something like throwing from a longer distance (which I think will lead to them throwing harder to chase velocity nonetheless)
grandadmiralbraun
With Joey Ortiz basically becoming that "well-rounded offensive player with great defense" that the FG prospect write-up foretold and three years of team control, does he become a possible trade-candidate for the Brewers to replenish parts elsewhere (similar to the Durbin deal with Boston)? The Brewers have Pratt locked up thru 2033 and Jesus Made seemingly ready….
Jay Jaffe
At some point, he's probably trade fodder, but I don't know that a move will be imminent. Made had an excellent season in Double-A at age 19 but I'm not sure that the Brewers need to bulldoze their roster to find a spot in the infield for him on Opening Day 2027. Having a veteran like Ortiz could be quite helpful when it's time to break him in.
war2d2
Jay! I don’t really have a question, just a feeling of existential dread about my, like, third-most-hated team winning the WS heading into what will probably be a long, cold winter. Baseball has been a welcome crutch for me in what has been one of the more difficult years of my adult life, and I’m both sad to see it go and sad to see the season end this way. Any recommendations for staving off the darkness in the winter months?
war2d2
I realize now that sounded a lot more ominous than I intended; I’m not in any peril, and fall/winter are usually the seasons I’m most comfortable in. Just feeling bereft is all.
Jay Jaffe
There are a million books, TV shows, and movies out there that you probably haven't gotten to yet that can fill the void. Just to throw some TV series out there, lately my wife and i have been streaming Slow Horses, The Night Manager, The Gentlemen, The Lowdown, The Diplomat, Shoresy, Rivals, Shrinking, and Great British Bakeing Show. We loved Widow's Bay, and and I just found an SCTV archive on Netflix
Fun-Hating Dork
The secondary market in Milwaukee during Games 1 and 2 was apparently so nutso that it was legit cheaper to fly to Tampa, get a hotel and go to Game 3.
Jay Jaffe
That's wild!
Alex Remington
Why wasn't Simpson subjected to the concussion protocol after ramming full speed into the wall?
Jay Jaffe
That's a good question. I imagine since he didn't appear impeded after making the play, the Rays didn't send their training staff out to check on him. I don't know for sure but I suspect somebody at least checked on him in the dugout or clubhouse after he came in. He sounded fine during his brief in-game interview with Ken Rosenthal.
Given the possibility of lingering effects, I do imagine (and hope) that the Rays staff is keeping an eye on him.
Alex Remington
"it's unsporting to pile on the 1991 Braves for Ron Gant getting pulled off first base by the Twins' Kent Hrbek in Game 2" – It is indeed, as that was unsportsmanlike conduct for which Hrbek should have been either warned or ejected! Alex Rodriguez was criticized far more for slapping Bronson Arroyo's glove. Hrbek pulling Gant off the bag was, *at best*, a bush league play; to my eyes, insofar as he was trying *successfully* to get one over on the umps, it was outright cheating, no more licit than the hidden ball trick and quite a bit less charming.
Jay Jaffe
File this under World Series Plays That Would Have Been Affected by a Replay Challenge.
Bud Smith
Kyle Harrison is quite close to spending the entire postseason on the active roster, yet never appearing in a game. Can you recall any other cases of that happening?
Jay Jaffe
I can't think of any offhand. Crowd, got any nominees?
daml91
Who you got for WS MVP right now? Seems very close to me between Chourio and Contreras.
Jay Jaffe
Yeah it's down to those two, I think. Chourio is 8-for-14 with a double, 2 RBI, 3 steals, and one big assist (the Hicks play), Contreras is 7-for-13 with 3 RBI, 3 caught stealing (in 7 attempts) and god knows how many successful challenges behind the plate. Either would be a reasonable choice but I can see Contreras getting it on the basis of handling the pitching staff.
Jay Jaffe
OK, i just created a poll on that MVP question which published at the top of the chat, please vote if. you're still around.
JustinPBG
Chris Turner (backup C) played zero innings for the 2000 Yankees. So it's probably backup catchers
Jay Jaffe
Regarding the rostered players who didn't play in the postseason. Backup catcher makes sense.
Grandpaboy
Two O/U questions. (1) Skubal signing date: 11/15 (2) Total deal $400m. What say you?
Jay Jaffe
I've got the Skubal capsule for our upcoming Top 50 Free Agents list, but I've only given these questions brief thought. My hunch is that his lack of a robust 32-start platform season and the impending lockout both keep him shy of $400 million, and if he signs before the lockout it will be in the final week. Like November 30ish
rbetzel
There had been whispers of Stephen Vogt interviewing in SEA (since then, they've been shot down). But it would seemingly require that he be traded to SEA. This got me thinking… what kind of return could a club expect for a manager? Cash? How do you unambiguously quantify a manager's contribution to a team?
Jay Jaffe
Well, we've seen a few trades of managers in the 21st century. The Rays acquired Piniella and infielder Antonio Pérez rom the Mariners in exchange for outfielder Randy Winn — a 3-4 win player at his peak _ in October 2002. The White Sox acquired a couple of scrubs for Ozzie Guillen in September 2011, and the Blue Jays acquired Mike Aviles for David Carpenter and manager John Farrell in October 2012. The Winn return was widely viewed as an overpay, so I'd say that future returns aren't going to be guys who leave very big impacts even if it's a very good manager like Vogt.
michaelgarman
Not exactly what the question is asking but Charlie Silvera won six World Series rings with the Yankees ('49-'53 and '56) and only appeared in a single game (1949 G2). Backup catchers again
Jay Jaffe
notable, though those World Series didn't include additional rounds of playoffs.
Jeremy Fox
The '82 Brewers were Harvey's Wallbangers. What should the nickname of this Brewers team be? Pat's Bats seems too, uh, pat.
Jay Jaffe
Nothing alliterative or rhyming with Pat or Murph(y) comes to mind for me. Whatever it is, the bar is very high to beat Harvey's Wallbangers
souldougie
Do you have any personal baseball "Mandela Effects"? For me, I could've sworn Harvey Kuenn was a hall-of-famer (not that I think he deserves it necessarily), to the point where I thought I remembered seeing a plaque for him in my book about the HOF I had as a kid.
Jay Jaffe
Once in awhile I get confused about which popular 19th century players are in and which aren't, guys like Jack Glasscock, Bill Dahlen, and Tony Mullane, but I always figure it out before I have to go look it up. I know from recent experience that I tend to lump Roger Clemens and Pete Rose in with their Hall of Fame teammates whe I'm reeling off a list, then of course I have to go back and re-engineer those sentences.
Jay Jaffe
Ok folks, that's it from me this week. No chat for me next week as we'll be dark for election day. Please go vote! And enjoy the rest of the World Series, if you can.
Jay Jaffe
Looks like Contreras is winning World Series MVP poll by a 2-to-1 margin. Not sure if I have to close it separately or not. If not, I'll keep it open for those who come across the transcript
Thanks for stopping by!
Liam Hicks had an adventurous night during Game 2 of the World Series in Milwaukee. In the first inning, after the Rays had already plated two runs against Brewers starter Logan Henderson, Hicks clubbed a two-run homer — the first homer of this year’s World Series, in fact — to extend the lead to 4-0. In the sixth inning, after that lead had been trimmed to a single run, he was thrown out at the plate while trying to score, a play that loomed particularly large in what became a 5-4 defeat that put the Rays in a two-games-to-none series hole. While Hicks has scuffled at the plate for much of the postseason, he’s come up big a few times, and has had a substantial impact since being acquired from the Marlins in a deadline-day trade.
By the time Hicks batted for the first time on Saturday night, the 24-year-old Henderson had already thrown 23 pitches. Yandy Díaz led off, and after battling for seven pitches, he reached second base when shortstop Cooper Pratt threw away a fairly routine groundball. He scored on a Chandler Simpson single, and after Simpson stole second, Junior Caminero worked the count full and then fouled off a couple of pitches before singling home Simpson. Up came Hicks, and after he fouled off a high four-seamer, Henderson left an 87.8-mph cutter in the middle of the plate. Hicks connected, launching the ball 411 feet to right center for a two-run homer.
The American League Championship Series between the Rays and Guardians was a study in contrasts when it came to starting pitching, particularly as the series extended. Tampa Bay’s starters lasted five or more innings in all but one of the six games, with Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta combining for three starts of at least six innings; the former went seven innings and the latter 5 1/3 in the the final two games. Cleveland’s starters reached the five-inning mark just twice and never went deeper than that; over the final three games, the team’s starters — ace Parker Messick and reliever Shawn Armstrong, who was deputized to open Games 4 and 6 — totaled just four innings. Given that imbalance, it was hardly a surprise that the Rays rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win those three and take the series.
The World Series might present a similar contrast. The Rays and the Yankees are the only teams whose starters have averaged at least five innings per turn during this postseason, and Tampa Bay knocked off New York in a Division Series sweep earlier this month. Meanwhile, the Brewers are one of five teams whose starters have averaged less than four innings per turn; only twice did a Milwaukee starter even last five innings, with Logan Henderson reaching that mark in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres and Robert Gasser doing so in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. Jacob Misiorowski — the likely NL Cy Young winner, who even before the playoffs had already exceeded his total workload from last year by more than 30 innings — burned through 88 pitches to complete four innings in his NLDS start and 94 to go 4 1/3 in his NLCS start. For the Brewers and Rays, those divergent approaches have worked. Tampa Bay went a combined 7-2 in the ALDS and ALCS; Milwaukee, 7-1 in the NLDS and NLCS.
After a season in which he ranked third in the AL in FIP (2.81) and WAR (5.0) and fourth in ERA (2.67), Rasmussen began his postseason by no-hitting the Yankees for 7 2/3 innings in the Division Series opener. In three starts totaling 21 innings, he’s delivered a 1.29 ERA and a 2.58 FIP. Peralta, who struggled during his four months as a Met before righting himself somewhat as a Ray following a deadline deal, has put up a 1.13 ERA and a 3.72 FIP in 16 innings as a starter, on top of which he added two-thirds of an inning out of the bullpen in ALCS Game 4; that cherry on top of his two strong starts helped him win series MVP honors. While their third and fourth starters, Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax, haven’t been as effective, the Rays’ postseason rotation ERA is good enough to crack the top 10 dating back to the start of division play in 1969:
Lowest Postseason Rotation ERAs Since 1969
Team
Season
GS
QS
IP
ERA
Results
Orioles
1983
9
6
61 2/3
1.31
Won WS
Braves
1996
16
15
113 1/3
1.59
Lost WS
Expos
1981
10
8
73 2/3
1.59
Lost NLCS
Brewers
2018
10
0
33
1.64
Lost NLCS
Mets
1973
12
10
81 2/3
1.87
Lost WS
Athletics
1972
12
6
76 1/3
1.89
Won WS
Tigers
2012
13
10
85 1/3
1.90
Lost WS
Diamondbacks
2001
17
14
120 1/3
1.94
Won WS
Dodgers
1981
16
11
110 1/3
1.96
Won WS
Rays
2026
9
4
50
1.98
Won ALCS
Minimum two rounds of playoffs and at least six games.
Runs are hard to come by during the postseason, in part because of the outsized impact of cooler weather and overpowering relief pitching. So far this fall, no pitcher has done a better job of keeping runs off the board than Aaron Ashby. Working in a multi-inning role that recalls a bygone era of bullpen firemen, the 28-year-old lefty has delivered 12 1/3 scoreless innings for the Brewers thus far while playing a central role in both their Division Series win over the Padres and their Championship Series victory over the Dodgers — so much so that he assembled a reasonable NLCS MVP case, though the award went to Jake Bauers instead.
Ashby has pitched in six of Milwaukee’s eight playoff games, coincidentally Games 1, 2, and 4 of both aforementioned series. He’s thrown more innings than any other Brewer this postseason; by comparison, starters Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson have each totaled nine, and Jacob Misiorowski 8 1/3. Four of Ashby’s six outings have been hitless, and all but one has lasted at least 1 2/3 innings, a luxury afforded by the October schedule’s extra days off and his own efficiency and stamina.
“The way this guy loves to play, loves to throw every day. He keeps on wanting the ball,” said pitching coordinator Jim Henderson of Ashby in the wake of the NLCS clincher. “He’s trained himself for it. Every single day he plays catch, he gives it a full effort. He doesn’t save bullets. He creates them.” Read the rest of this entry »
The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from their third trip to the World Series. After pulling away from the Cleveland Guardians late in Game 4 for a 7-3 victory, the Rays scored a run in each of the first three innings of Game 5. While they left six men on base over that span, they forced Guardians ace Parker Messick to work so hard that he lasted just two innings, and because the game remained within reach, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt called upon four of his best relievers to record four outs or more. Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen stifled the Guardians, holding them to one run on four hits over seven innings, and a trio of relievers shut the door for a 3-1 victory and a three-games-to-two series lead. The series now heads back to St. Petersburg, and because the travel day was erased by Friday night’s rainout, the Rays will have the opportunity to clinch the pennant at home on Monday night.
For as great a rookie season as Messick had, the 25-year-old lefty has been anything but dominant during the postseason. He lasted five innings in just one of his three previous starts while putting up a 4.13 FIP and 5.25 xERA to go with a comparatively tidy 3.09 ERA in 11.2 innings. If a 15.1% walk rate, more than double his regular season mark of 6.6%, has been the primary culprit, his previous workload may be a contributing factor as well. Messick ranked fourth in the American League with 186.1 innings — the most of any rookie since 2012 — and with his postseason work prior to Sunday, he had pushed his odometer to 198 frames, up from a combined 138.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2025.
After pairing Messick with backup catcher Austin Hedges for all but one of his starts in 2026 — David Fry caught the first three innings of his September 27 outing — Vogt called upon Patrick Bailey instead… on the basis of his offense. That’s an odd thing to say about a catcher with a career 75 wRC+, and an anemic .146/.213/.183 line when he was traded from the Giants in May, but the 27-year-old backstop has been a credible threat at the plate since joining the Guardians, and he entered Sunday having hit .333/.379/.556 (163 wRC+) during the postseason, with a homer and a single off Rasmussen in Game 1. Said Vogt before the game, “With the way Patty is swinging the bat, [I] just wanted to keep his bat in the lineup, and you know, obviously there is some risk. There’s some concern with Patty never having caught Parker. But you know what? If I’m going to trust two human beings to go out and navigate a game, it’s Parker and Patty.” Read the rest of this entry »
It’s been a rough season for José Ramírez. After a sluggish start, the 34-year-old third baseman suffered a fractured left hamate that required surgery and knocked him out of action for nearly six weeks, then struggled so mightily upon returning that it took him nearly two months to barrel a ball. His bat showed some life in the second half of September as he helped the Guardians overtake the White Sox in the AL Central race, and with his team pushed to the brink of elimination in the Division Series against those same White Sox, he collected four extra-base hits and drove in eight runs over the final three games, most notably golfing a two-run homer off Sean Burke to provide all the scoring Cleveland would need in Game 5. After more heroics in the ALCS opener against the Rays, however, his costly error on Tuesday night helped Tampa Bay even the series.
Ramírez made his error during the fourth inning of a scoreless game, and while it was the only play scored an error, it was hardly the Guardians’ only miscue in that frame. After Parker Messick issued a leadoff walk to Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa Jr. hit a potential double-play grounder to second baseman Travis Bazzana, who tossed to shortstop Brayan Rocchio for the force out. Rocchio’s throw at first base was high enough to pull Nathaniel Lowe off the bag, and while Mesa was initially called out, the call was overturned when the Rays challenged it (the Rays also challenged the out at second, but that was upheld).
After Messick struck out Jonny DeLuca, Chandler Simpson hit a high chopper to Rocchio, who unhesitatingly fired to first base. Simpson beat the throw, while Mesa motored around second base and alertly took third because Ramírez had ranged so far to his left. Ben Williamson then hit a grounder whose second hop took an odd bounce off the edge of the turf in front of Ramírez; instead of winding up in his glove, it squirted through his legs and into left field as Mesa scored the game’s first run, with Simpson taking third and Williamson second. Liam Hicks plated them both on a single into right-center, giving the Rays a 3-0 lead. The three unearned runs were all the scoring the Rays would need in a 3-1 victory. Read the rest of this entry »
A year ago, even eight months ago, it would have been difficult to envision Victor Mesa Jr. emerging as a postseason hero for the Rays.
The son of a legendary Cuban outfielder and manager, he made his major league debut with the Marlins in 2025, but even by then, his standing as a prospect had faded due to his long swing and his aggressive approach. Designated for assignment by Miami before camps opened in February to make room for a waiver-wire reliever, Mesa was traded to the Rays and began the 2026 season in Triple-A.
Yet by June, the lefty-swinging 24-year-old (now 25) had carved out a platoon role with the big club thanks to his speed and defense. His role expanded as he far outdid his power projections, demonstrated an ability to hit same-side pitching, and played outstanding defense. In Game 3 of the Division Series, he administered the decisive blow against the Yankees, a towering two-run homer on lefty Max Fried’s final pitch to give the Rays a 4-2 lead. His adventurous night didn’t end there — in left field, he attempted to catch Anthony Volpe’s sixth-inning homer-that-wasn’t, which was ultimately ruled a run-scoring double because of fan interference — but the Rays held on to complete the sweep and advance to the ALCS against the Guardians.
“At the beginning of the year, I started being designated for assignment and look at me now,” a beaming, champagne-soaked Mesa said in the aftermath of the Wild Card Series victory.
“Victor Mesa Jr. is a very talented player both sides of the ball,” manager Kevin Cash said that night. “And when we got him up here and he found comfort in playing in that role that he was in basically every day, he really lengthened out our lineup.” Read the rest of this entry »
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. THis is my second time on our new internal platform and I'm still feeling my way around this thing.
Jay Jaffe
As a reminder, you need to be logged into your user account (not necessarily a paid member, but thank you if you are) to submit questions.
Jay Jaffe
I've got a piece on Victor Mesa Jr. in the pipeline for today
How much does Jose Ramirez finally having a postseason to remember impact his HOF odds?
Jay Jaffe
It doesn't hurt him, obviously, but I think the heavy lifting has already been done. He's not yet at the JAWS standard for third baseman, but he's above the peak standard (44.7 vs. 43.4). He'll get some additional limelight when he passes 300 homers (he's at 297) and 2,000 hits (1,779). Another trip to the World Series would be a feather in his cap, too.
Jay Jaffe
I've got a piece on Ramírez's rebound from his slump on track for later this week, incidentally.
Matthew Tobin
Why did the Fangraphs Playoff odds change in the past hour? I noticed the Dodgers were below 25% and they seemed to have inched back up above 25% since then?
Jay Jaffe
Without looking, I'm not sure, but it could be because starting pitchers were named or lineups were adjusted. The odds aren't set in stone, they're adjusted as we get new inputs.
Jamey
Are you familiar with King of the Mound?
It’s on my kid’s school reading list and is apparently about Satchel Paige and his time with the integrated Bismarcks. I’d never heard of that part of Paige’s barnstorming.
Jay Jaffe
I'm not familiar with that book, either. I don't have a strong recollection of the Bismarcks, but they're covered in Larry Tye's Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend, which was pubbed in 2009 and which I really liked.
Jay Jaffe
We don't have many questions in the queue at the moment, so don't be shy about submitting yours
sourbob
Going into collective bargaining, a Brewers vs. Guardians or Rays WS is just about the best outcome for the MLBPA and the worst for the owners, right?
Jay Jaffe
Yes, and it's probably even better now that the Dodgers are down 2-0 and looking like they're on the ropes.
Kwanbelievable
What's your personal ranked choice vote for the remaining 4 teams in order of how much you are rooting for them to win the WS?
Jay Jaffe
Beyond the obvious links to my growing up a Dodgers and and generally defaulting to them as a rooting preference, I really don't have strong preferences here — the Brewers and Padres are kind of neck-and-neck in terms of the NL teams besides the Dodgers and Mets (for geographic reasons) that I watch most, so maybe Milwaukee if I had to pick?
The fact that the Brewers, Rays, and Guardians are all among the more analytically inclined teams obviously has some appeal here too. USA Today's Gabe Lacques had a good piece on these teams' interconnections yesterday https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/gabe-lac…
crew87
The "sit Ohtani?" discussion is ridiculous, right? Like, yeah he's been bad but can the solution to your problems possibly be "bench the greatest player alive?" Feels like there should be 10 more things to adjust before that.
Jay Jaffe
I feel like we're back to the 2024 World Series after he injured his shoulder, where the information regarding his true condition was a closely-kept secret and his value in the lineup rest partially on being a decoy. His at-bats haven't been great, and he hasn't pulled a ball in the air since August. I'm not 100% sure I don't pull the DePaula lever myself with the team down 2-0, but I don't know exactly what he's dealing with.
Matthew VanWinkle
Thoughts on MLB's proposed changes regarding season and playoff length?
Jay Jaffe
Didn't love it but it didn't stink on ice like every other MLB trial balloon they've launched during this propaganda cycle. If you're going to shorten the schedule, 154 games is the obvious number to start with, but what will happen is the owners will say, ok, your salaries will be cut 5% to account for this shorter schedule and then the proposal will be deader than Babe Ruth.
Kwanbelievable
Have you ever thought about a JAWS equivalent for managers/coaches?
Jay Jaffe
I've thought about lots of applications for JAWS — and a medical journal even cited it for a "peak plus average" study that they did that was unrelated to sports — but I haven't come up with anything useful enough to unveil.
If there's a lockout I'll go back to the lab.
Jay Jaffe
The most fun I've had thinking about a JAWS application is Astronaut JAWS because I'm a bit of a spaceflight nerd. I watch Apollo documentaries and just about any sci-fi movie where They Puttin On Helmets.
crew87
regarding the Brewers making the world series being bad for owners' bargaining position, do you think players on eliminated teams see it that way and are actively rooting for the brewers? Or is it such a small factor and MLB players are recuperating from the season to a degree they don't get that invested in the playoffs after they're out
Jay Jaffe
Mostly the latter, I don't think the players get particularly invested unless they have ties to certain players, coaches, or execs with those teams.
crackbaldo
How far back would the mound have to be moved for there to be a notable change in the way pitchers have to pitch?
Jay Jaffe
I think even a foot changes things. I know this is a common suggestion for how to fix baseball but every time it comes up I look at the injury data and think "You wanna place more stress on pitchers' arms?" because it's human nature that they're going to work harder to approximate their current velocity rather than deciding to live with lower velo.
mragbayani
If Posey is the most likely inductee, and Utley and Felix are running 2nd and 3rd, who do you see making a big jump this year? Pettitte? Pedroia/Wright? Rollins riding Utley's coattails?
Jay Jaffeedited
I think Pedroia riding the coattails of Utley (and to some extent Andruw Jones) is the mosst likely of t hose outcomes, maybe a bit more momentum for Pettitte as voters realize that he'll be a dead letter in front of the Era Committee given the Hall's engineered panels.
drtracy
With Chris Sale seemingly cementing his place in Cooperstown after his stint in Atlanta, which other active starting pitchers, who are maybe at a career inflection point, could put themselves in that discussion with a strong run in their mid to late-30s?
Beyond that, maybe the next hope would be Max Fried, who has lacked volume but has performed well, but he's had just one season above 5.0 WAR and that's not gonna turn any voter's head.
Rose Keenan
If ohtani were to be healthy enough to pitch, in what role would the dodgers be most inclined to use him. It feels as though they wouldn't necessarily need him in the starting staff but could they use him as a reliever?
Jay Jaffe
The problem with using him as a reliever is that once he comes out he'd have to take a position in order to remain in the game. The rule built specifically to showcase him doesn't apply in those cases.
xandercho23
Joe Espada is being interviewed by the Mariners for their Manager position. Is this the right fit for both sides?
Jay Jaffe
I don't know that he's a perfect fit but I haven't seen anything to suggest he'd be a bad one. it's been awhile since I thought the Mariners had a good manager, and if they hired him, I'd probably think it was a solid move unless there was a candidate I thought more highly of.
Matthew Tobin
Posey shouldn't be eligible until he is completely out of baseball IMO. There is conflict of interest and puts especially local writers in an impossible situation.
Jay Jaffe
Did you see the knives come out for Posey during all his screw-ups this year? I trust the professionalism of the Giants' beat reporters who have votes and their ability to separate the player from the executive.
InsertWittyNameHere
Are the Phillies now in the same spot as the 2010-11 team where the title contention window is almost closed and they have to play out Ryan Howard’s contract (Now Trea/Harper’s contract). Unless a magically pop up prospect happens, I cant see any path to a winning team until a tear down happens.
Jay Jaffe
I don't know about the EXACT spot, and I don't think Harper at this stage is nearly the mllstone that Turner looks like he is, but they do need an overhaul. This team has both Luzardo and Sánchez tied up long term whereas that one had only Lee beyond the 2014 option for Halladay that they declined.
crew87
my idea to fix the mound is to shorten the pitching rubber by a few inches on each side. Not a drastic fix, but eliminates *some* pitcher advantage, because they're all over that thing trying to have more deceptive deliveries / angles.
Jay Jaffe
Hmm, I'd at least entertain the notion of seeing this implemented in the AFL or Atlantic League for a closer look.
Jeremy Fox
Thoughts on the AFL experiment restricting outfielder positioning? Also, if that becomes the MLB rule, surely we need to call it the "Strawberry Patch" rule after Daryl Strawberry, right?
Jay Jaffe
and speaking of which, I don't like this one at all, given the amount of tech involved. So far, I think the answer is move the fences back and make them higher, and revisit the strike one boundaries (or maybe check swings) in order to help increase offense
jamespaul94
By my count there has only been 1 world series in the last 100 years where neither team had won a title before. If Milwaukee and Tampa advance, it would happen, likely for the last time. How exciting would you find that matchup on those grounds alone?
Jay Jaffe
Are you telling me we won't see a Padres-Mariners World Series?
Jay Jaffe
(Ever, I mean. Obviously not this year)
Jay Jaffe
I do think it would be cool to see a World Series that guarantees a first-time title, but I don't want to knock the other possibilities. The Guardians are long overdue for a title, especially given the high quality of that organization over the past 30+ years . If the Dodgers come back, they'll be in a rematch of one that happened in 1920 or 2020 and in pursuit of just the fifth threpeat ever and first of any NL team. Those are all interesting outcomes.
New Brit Fan
I don't quite understand the "if you move the mound back, pitchers will just maximise velo and break even more". Aren't they already pushing as hard as they can?
Jay Jaffe
Yes, but that obviously hasn't stopped anyone from pushing the envelope. It's always going to be "how can I keep my velo in the upper tier" before it's "gosh, i better learn to throw a new pitch"
tjcook87
Just read Mike Vaccaro’s (sp?) new book on George Steinbrenner – good read! In your opinion, Do books like that coming out have any sway with the Hall as it sets up the latest Eras committee? Something that makes them more inclined to add a Steinbrenner/stack the committee accordingly?
Jay Jaffe
Eh, minimal I think. And I don't think there's going to be a crushing rush to make Steinbrenner a candidate when there are so many managers on the doorstep. the Boss got less than five votes in 2017 and '19, which would be a strike against his future candidacy if he gets another one under the newish rule.
Also, I don't think the Hall wants a twice-suspended owner in, to be honest.
xandercho23
If you were making the dodgers lineup, would you make radical changes in hopes of a spark or trust the veterans who got you there? Examples being struggles of Smith, Betts, Ohtani with De Paula on the bench and Tucker/Muncy further down in the order.
Jay Jaffe
I think this is an overraction to two games. Tucker's hitting .300/.391/.500 in the postseason, Muncy is slugging .684. If there's particular matchup stuff regarding the starting pitcher for Game 3, I might give it more sway but I'm not sure Robert Gasser represents such an imposing opponent that they're going to upend everything.
Jeremy Fox
Where do the Phillies turn for a manager now that Cora has (reportedly) rebuffed their approach? Remove Mattingly's interim tag? It's a veteran team that's clearly on the downswing. Feels like a bunch of potential candidates either wouldn't want the gig, or wouldn't be the right fit for it because the vets wouldn't respect them.
Jay Jaffe
I think bringing back Mattingly would be on par with returning Turner to shortstop and assuming Nola is a top-of-the-rotation guy. Just a foolish waste when the clock is ticking. Current coaches like Kai Correa, Ruben Niebla and George Lombard Sr. might be fits as might experienced guys like David Ross, Rocco Baldelli, and Espada, but so much will come down to who Dombrowski connects with.
Jeremy Fox
Will we ever see a healthy Ohtani for a full season as both hitter and pitcher again?
Jay Jaffe
We're never going to see a 200-inning Ohtani and I'd be surprised if we see a 162-inning Ohtani. I think 100-120 innings is going to become the target if he's healthy.
If you were asked, would you accept a position at the Hall to help formulate committees and make decisions on voting?
Jay Jaffe
I'd be happy to consult with them so long as it didn't mean giving up my day job here as well as my voting privileges.
Jay Jaffe
But I don't see myself as winding up on a Hall payroll, if that's what you're asking.
Sonny L
I’m interested in the idea that a Tamp/Cleveland v Brewers WS undercuts the cap logic (it probably does) but might miss the forest for the trees in that it tells the massive middle tier of franchises they don’t have to spend in FA to win. Noses, faces, spite, etc
Jay Jaffe
Eh, if the runs by the current teams haven't already underscored it, the reason they're playing in an LCS is because they are well-run, forward-thinking teams that search for any edge they can get, not simply because they don't spend money in free agency. Theirs isn't the only way to succeed, but it's not a recipe that's replicable just because you *don't* spend in FA.
daml91
Pat Murphy about to win MOY for the 3rd consecutive season in the NL. His regular season W% currently is top 25 in history surrounded by HOFers. There is basically no precedent for someone who started this late, but is there a pathway to the HOF for him especially if he leads the Brewers to their first WS?
Jay Jaffe
I think that's a tough lift for a guy who's already 67. If we presume that the Brewers' current success will be harder to maintain as their current core gets more expensive – and as their pitchers deal with injuries, ahem — they'll be subject to the usual gravity any competitive team faces. Will he ride that out? Will his career look as impressive after three years below .500 somewhere in there? I'm just spitballing here but I think he's a longshot simply because of the late start.
Beer:30
The Dodgers aren't successful because they spend money, it's how they spend it that counts. And the Brewers aren't successful just because they don't sign FAs, they invest heavily in other areas (that many teams neglect) to help offset the approach. Easy to attempt, far harder to replicate from both sides, as evidenced by ample teams failures.
Jay Jaffe
yup yup yup
Tommyfastball
I am left wanting by the metrics I've seen on who is good/bad on pitch challenges. We need metrics that consider the number of opportunities to challenge, how egregious the original call was, even maybe some leverage stuff and accounting for how many challenges a team has left. Current "How many times did a guy challenge correctly?" or "What % of time are challenges correct?" need to be improved.
Jay Jaffe
Players and managers aren't the only ones feeling their way around the new system. Give it time and I imagine you'll see more advanced applications — and for all we know some teams are working on this
sourbob
How seriously should we take the talk of a possibly "juiced" ball in minor league play in 2026? (Whether intentional, or just a variance in the seams.)
Jay Jaffe
I'd like to see some actual data before I take it seriously. PCL scoring went down, IL scoring went up but was still below 2023-2024 levels. Lower than that isn't really something I'm attuned to but if there's something there, let's see the numbers.
InsertWittyNameHere
Do you think the HoF arguments now need to be “TikTok”ized? Meaning the 500 HR, 300 Wins benchmarks need to be severely cut down? The debate of DeGrom is what drives me on this. Any Fangraphs reader who watched him pitch knows that he’s on a very short list of all time great pitchers.
Jay Jaffe
voters already largely recognize the increasing rarity of those once-automatic benchmarks but I think it's going to take a more radical shakeup to get deGrom into the Hall. I'm not incredibly sold on him right now, as I wrote in the piece linked above
Fun-Hating Dork
FWIW, Savant's ABS data does have leverage aspects and they did just add some accounting for losing a challenge. I don't necessarily agree with the exact implementation/numbers chosen, but it's at least a start.
Jay Jaffe
Thanks
Bud Smith
regarding the minor league ball, it's a different ball for AA and below so the PCL/IL scoring is not relevant. BG/Eric have been all over the juiced ball in the lower levels
Jay Jaffe
Noted, and yes, that rings a bell.
Beer:30
What do you see for Bauers on the free agent trail? He's earned a contract but the short history and current age suggest something pretty nominal, 2/$30? or does that fall short?
Jay Jaffe
I think some kind of 2-3 year deal is a likely outcome. It's not the nicest thing to do to his market but I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers QO him but also make clear that there's some kind of longer-term option available as an alternative.
Jeremy Fox
The Brewers bullpen is amazing, but can they keep riding it this hard all the way to a title? I kind of feel like playoff managers collectively have tend to lean a bit too hard into "win today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow."
Jay Jaffe
The nature of the Division Series with its extra off days makes it a different creature than the LCS when it comes to bullpen management. I expect we'll see teams balancing the usage more, and familiarity effects setting in.
Jay Jaffe
Ok folks, that's it from me for today. Thanks so much for stopping by, please tip your servers, and enjoy the baseball!
