Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and welcome to the first chat of September! Which means that yes, you’ve been called up to the majors and added to the roster.
12:02
Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Tristan Peters, a former Savannah Banana (from their days in wood-bat collegiate summer leagues) and unheralded prospect who’s been one of the top rookie position players in the game this season. This was a fun one to put together https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tristan-peters-has-gone-bananas/
Tristan Peters was hardly on anyone’s radar entering the season. A lefty-swinging 26-year-old center fielder playing for his fourth organization since being drafted in 2021, he didn’t land on any preseason top prospects list or even project to see much time in the majors, where in his brief career he’d gone 0-for-12. Yet Peters — whose résumé includes a stint with the Savannah Bananas in 2021, when they were a competitive collegiate summer league team instead of a barnstorming sensation — has become one of the season’s biggest and most pleasant surprises. While helping the AL Central-leading White Sox pull off an already-unprecedented turnaround, he landed on the All-Star team and ranks high on the rookie WAR leaderboard. Last week, he even earned a spot in the record books by homering in five consecutive games.
Peters began his binge — which took place entirely at Guaranteed Rate Field against the Mets and Rangers — on August 22 with a solo home run off New York’s Christian Scott, then followed it up the next day with a wall-scraping walk-off solo shot off Kodai Senga, breaking a 1-1 tie. Peters hit both blasts while using a yellow bat — a nod to his time with the Bananas. The streak continued with a two-run tater off Texas right-hander Kumar Rocker on August 24 (Chicago’s only runs in an 11-2 drubbing), then a solo homer off Peyton Gray the next night, and finally a two-run dinger off Robby Ahlstrom on August 26.
That 406-foot homer off Senga was Peters’ only one during this stretch with an estimated distance of at least 400 feet, and just his second to travel at least that far this season; he had a 410-footer off A’s righty Justin Sterner on July 10, the day he hit for the cycle. On that note, Peters finished a triple shy of the cycle on both August 25 and 26; the first of those efforts included a two-run double off Jacob deGrom. All told, he went 10-for-18 with three walks, three strikeouts, nine RBI, and a 1.500 slugging percentage during that five-game run, not too shabby for a guy whose last prospect report, under the Rays’ 2025 unranked “Depth Starters and Outfielders” section, referred to him as one of the team’s “smaller, contact-oriented corner outfielders at the upper levels without meaningful power.” Read the rest of this entry »
Eric Canha, Mark J. Rebilas, and Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Three years ago, Chris Sale appeared to be pretty close to the end of the line. After missing the abbreviated 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery, he made just 11 starts totaling 48 1/3 innings in 2021–22 while battling further injuries, including a stress fracture of a rib and fractures of his left pinky and right wrist. When he was sidelined by yet another stress fracture — this one in his scapula — in June 2023, he missed 10 weeks, and his ERA ballooned to 4.88 after returning to make half a dozen starts. It was fair to think the 34-year-old lefty’s most productive days were behind him, as his wiry 6-foot-6 frame could no longer withstand the rigors of regular duty.
Lo and behold, Sale made a strong showing over his final three starts of 2023, capturing the attention of the Braves, who traded infielder Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox in a straight-up exchange in December 2023 and soon restructured his contract. Sale rewarded Atlanta’s faith by winning both the pitching Triple Crown (with 18 wins, a 2.38 ERA, and 225 strikeouts) and the Cy Young award that had long eluded him. Though he was limited to 20 starts last year by a fractured rib, he has continued to dominate; this year, the 37-year-old southpaw ranks second in the NL in ERA (2.20), FIP (2.26), and strikeout rate (30.6%) behind Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski, as well as third in FanGraphs WAR (4.9) behind The Miz and Cristopher Sánchez. And while he’s “only” sixth in Baseball Reference WAR (4.5), Sale’s run with the Braves has pushed his S-JAWS past 2025 Hall of Fame inductee CC Sabathia (50.8). Sale won’t catch any of the big four from this era — Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer, the last of whom may be the only one active after this season — but he’s the only other active or recently retired starter with an S-JAWS above 45.0. As voters scramble to recalibrate their Hall of Fame standards for starting pitchers in an age of diminished workloads, Sale has likely punched his ticket to Cooperstown.
It hasn’t been a great season for veterans vying to shore up their Hall of Fame credentials, as I noted on Monday, with injuries sidelining hopefuls such as Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton, and age seemingly catching up to Jose Altuve, Manny Machado, and others. Yet Sale isn’t alone among mid-career players who have advanced their causes. What follows here is a partial position-by-position roundup of some others whose odds of earning a spot Cooperstown have improved this season, at least by my reckoning. Not every position is covered, and at some positions, the top candidates wound up in the previous installment because their chances have taken a hit. I’ve included each player’s JAWS standing, his 2026 WAR (Baseball Reference’s version unless otherwise indicated), and his ZiPS rest-of-season projection. Read the rest of this entry »
Last year, though he missed the first two and a half months of this season due to bilateral epicondylitis, Giancarlo Stanton bashed 24 homers in 77 games while hitting for a 158 wRC+ and 1.8 bWAR. Despite its half-season nature, the campaign was his strongest since 2021, and it appeared as though he had enough momentum to reach 500 home runs and, quite likely, secure a spot in the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, Stanton has once again been unable to stay on the field. After straining his right calf in late April and then reinjuring it while rehabbing in mid-June, he suffered a moderate-grade left calf strain last week, one that may very well prevent him from playing again this season.
Manager Aaron Boone said on Saturday that Stanton strained his left calf while running the bases earlier in the week. He didn’t offer a timetable for the slugger’s return, but conceded, “We’re at a point in the calendar where it gets challenging… You all know how bad he wants to be on that field and contributing to a championship… Hopefully we just continue working to get him right and healthy.”
The 36-year-old Stanton has played in just 24 games this season, batting .256/.302/.422 (103 wRC+) with just three homers in 96 plate appearances. Those three homers boosted his career total to 456, the most of any active player, but they’ve run critical time off of his clock, so to speak. By colleague Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS-driven estimate, Stanton had a 71% chance of reaching 500 homers coming into the season, but per Dan’s hot-off-the-presses estimate, those odds are down to 51%, and to these eyes that still feels high. Stanton’s MVP award, two home run titles, five All-Star appearances, postseason performance (.254/.322/.605 with 18 homers) and otherworldly Statcast numbers might be enough to overcome a slight shortage in JAWS, but with just 47.0 career WAR (the Baseball Reference version, which is true for all of the figures cited here unless otherwise indicated), 35.4 peak WAR, and 41.2 JAWS, he’s just 37th among right fielders, 14.8 points below the standard. I don’t think that’s going to cut it. Read the rest of this entry »
If the 2026 regular season finished today, not only would a sub-.500 team qualify for the playoffs, but Shohei Ohtani’s run of three straight Most Valuable Player awards — the last two in the National League, since signing with the Dodgers — would probably end. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been absolutely on fire since late May, as substantial adjustments to his mechanics and approach have helped his offense catch up to his already-elite defense. The 24-year-old center fielder has overtaken Ohtani on the WAR leaderboard at a time when the two-way superstar has been shut down from pitching, and this week, he put himself in the history books in a few different ways.
On Monday night at Wrigley Field, Crow-Armstrong put on a particularly entertaining show against the White Sox, going 4-for-5 with a pair of home runs, a stolen base, two runs scored, and three runs batted in. Batting leadoff for the Cubs, he began the home half of the first inning by homering on Luis Castillo’s first pitch of the evening, a four-seamer on the inner edge of the plate. He singled off Castillo in the second, and after taking strike three looking on a sinker in the fourth, he drew a walk against reliever Tyler Schweitzer in the sixth, doubled off Trevor Richards in the eighth, then capped his night with a walk-off two-run homer off a hanging slider from Hagen Smith in the 10th. Read the rest of this entry »
In 1981, when a seven-week players’ strike split the season into two “halves,” and in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic shortened the season to 60 games, teams with sub-.500 records snuck into the postseason via expanded playoff formats created to accommodate the unique and extraordinary circumstances. No team finishing below .500 over the course of a full schedule has received a playoff berth, but the possibility looms large this year. With five and a half weeks and about 35 games per team still to play, the American League has just five teams above .500, including one — the AL West-leading Astros — that entered Wednesday right at that mark before beating the Angels. It’s not out of the question that two sub-.500 teams could make the playoffs, but for all of the owners’ carping about a lack of competitive balance, messy free-for-alls such as this are just what Major League Baseball wants.
If the postseason were to start today, the Rays (76-50) would win the AL East by five games and White Sox (66-60) the AL Central by four games, with both earning first-round byes. The Yankees (71-55) and Red Sox (68-59) would qualify as the top two Wild Card winners; as the fourth and fifth seeds, they would square off in a best-of-three Wild Card Series as they did last season. But from there, things get ugly. The Astros (64-63) are currently clinging to a two-game lead over the Rangers (62-65) atop the AL West, but with a projected win total of 82 wins according to our Playoff Odds, they don’t have much margin for error when it comes to clearing the .500 bar, and could join or surpass the 2005 Padres (82-80) and 1973 Mets (82-79) in terms of mediocre division winners. The 1994 Rangers were a whopping 10 games below .500 at 52-62 but one game ahead of the A’s (51-63) when the players’ strike put them both out of their misery, though MLB does not consider any first-place teams from the shortened season to be official division winners. That’s how the Braves, who trailed the NL East-leading Expos by six games when the strike hit, are still considered to have won 14 consecutive division titles from 1991–2005 (an assertion I take issue with, but that’s an argument for another day). Read the rest of this entry »
Tommy John spent 26 seasons pitching in the majors from 1963–74 and then 1976–89, more than any player besides Nolan Ryan, but his level of fame – and indeed, his contribution to the game — stems as much from the year that cleaves that span as it does from his work on the mound. As the first recipient of the most famous sports medicine procedure of all time, the elbow ligament replacement surgery performed by Dr. Frank Jobe in late 1974 that now bears his name, John endured an arduous year-long rehab process before returning to pitch as well as ever. His recovery gave hope to generations of injured pitchers whose careers might otherwise have ended.
By the count of analyst Jon Roegele, keeper of the Tommy John Surgery List, over 2,700 professional players have undergone some variant of Jobe’s pioneering surgery on John during either their amateur or professional careers. That list ranges from Brent Strom — who did not make it back to the majors after becoming the second recipient of Jobe’s ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction technique but went on to become a successful pitching coach — to Hunter Greene, who just underwent his second Tommy John last week. So far, only three are in the Hall of Fame, namely Paul Molitor (the first position player to undergo the surgery), John Smoltz, and Billy Wagner, but Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, and Shohei Ohtani will almost certainly follow in their wake, with more to come. By Roegele’s accounting, over 39% of all major league pitchers in 2025 had undergone Tommy John surgery.
On the mound, John was the epitome of the “crafty lefty,” so good at his vocation that he arrived on the major league scene at age 20 and made his final appearance three days after his 46th birthday. His 700 starts and 288 wins are both more than any other 20th- or 21st-century pitcher outside the Hall of Fame except Roger Clemens, but John’s longevity, his more dominant cohorts — including six 300-game winners — and the surgery that bears his name have overshadowed the rest of his on-field accomplishments. Between going 0-for-15 on BBWAA ballots (where he topped out at 31.7%) and 0-for-5 on Era Committee ballots (where he peaked at 43.8% on the 2025 Classic Baseball ballot), he never came particularly close to election, though in 2013, he got a share of the spotlight when the Hall honored Jobe. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I’m just back from a trip to Salt Lake City to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday and the upcoming birthdays of my daughter and niece. While in transit, I learned that Tommy John had passed away. My tribute to him just went live moments ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-1943-2026-crafty-lefty-and-firs…
12:03
David: If you could populate the Hall of Fame with the same number of players, would there would be a 90% overlap with those who are actually enshrined? Or do you think the writers and others who have voted over the years got it right more often than 90% of the time – or less?
12:06
Jay Jaffe: Not sure about 90%, but maybe 75%. I’d put in more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players and strip out some of the 1930s guys who rode the Frisch/Terry Express. More starting pitchers from the 1980s to 2000s. More figures whose influence went beyond the numbers, including John Donaldson, Lefty O’Doul, Fernando Valenzuela, and yes, Tommy John (and Dr. Frank Jobe).
12:06
doink000: I don’t understand why Webb wasn’t more seriously talked about in terms of potentially being on the move. I know he got the coveted “Buster Posey Assurance,” but best case scenario is this time will be on the up and up by 2028/2029 and Webb isn’t getting any younger/more durable. As a potential number 1, top shelf number 2 on a reasonable contract, seems like he would’ve landed a pretty decent prospects haul. Or, could’ve packaged him with a salary dump like Adames and still could’ve gotten good value.
12:08
Jay Jaffe: I think some of it comes down to a perception and public relations. “Let’s get rid of these expensive acquisitions that were mistakes to acquire (Devers, Adames) and keep the homegrown guys we’ve nurtured (Webb) and that the fan base has grown to love.”
12:09
Jay Jaffe: But you’re right in that Webb has more trade value than a contract that is underwater or bordering on it
Adley Rutschman and Liam Hicks were hardly the only catchers dealt to contenders in the hours before last Monday’s trade deadline. Much further below the radar, the Dodgers acquired — re-acquired, actually — not one but two backstops, namely Ben Rortvedt and Hunter Feduccia, and their reasoning soon became clear. Dalton Rushing, who had been scratched from their lineup on August 2 due to “minor arm irritation,” landed on the injured list the next day with what the Dodgers initially termed a mild right elbow sprain. On August 4, the team revealed that the 25-year-old Rushing had suffered a partial tear of his right ulnar collateral ligament.
The injury hit the Dodgers almost exactly two months after they lost starting catcher Will Smith to the IL due to an inflamed disc in his neck. He has yet to return, and while Rushing’s UCL tear may not require surgery, it will likely prevent him from catching again during what has been something of a breakout season — albeit an uneven one.
“I would say it’s very small. I hope I’m wrong,” said manager Dave Roberts last Wednesday, referring to the likelihood of Rushing returning to his catching duties this season. He added that the Dodgers are “certainly trying to keep the bat alive for sure.” Shohei Ohtani’s occupation of the designated hitter slot would likely limit Rushing to pinch-hitting, ideally against righties, a potential luxury that the Dodgers will have to weigh against rostering a healthier and more versatile reserve such as Hyeseong Kim, who can play both middle infield positions and center field while being fast enough to serve as a pinch-runner. The current prognosis is for Rushing to be shut down from throwing for four to six weeks, though he’s expected to start a hitting progression sooner. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. In less than 24 hours, I’ll be en route to Salt Lake City with my family as we gather to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday.
12:03
Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on Dalton Rushing’s UCL tear, his various controversies, and the state of the Dodgers’ catching depth chart in the pipeline. Yesterday, i wrote about Max Scherzer cracking the all-time top 10 in strikeouts as well as feats by Gerrit Cole and Jacob Misiorowski, with JAWS and ZiPS odds updates on both Cole and Saturday’s opposite number, Chris Sale https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-headlines-a-big-weekend-for-s…
drplantwrench: which trade at the deadline do you think is most likely to be brought up in 5-10 years as That One Trade where it backfired and the prospect substantially overshadows the main piece?
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and welcome to the first chat of September! Which means that yes, you’ve been called up to the majors and added to the roster.
