In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is generally in the ballpark, though my final lists also incorporate our Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, which may nose them over the line. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it. Read the rest of this entry »

It was ugly, it was labor-intensive, it was sobering — and probably humbling. Clayton Kershaw entered Wednesday night’s start in Los Angeles needing just three strikeouts to reach 3,000 for his career. Facing the White Sox, a team with the American League’s worst record (28-57) and the majors’ second-highest strikeout rate against lefties (26.6%), the 37-year-old southpaw repeatedly struggled to get from strike two to strike three, and only reached the milestone on his 100th and final pitch of the night. By the time he caught Vinny Capra looking at a slider on the outside edge of the plate, the Dodgers trailed 4-2, and Max Muncy had just departed with a serious knee injury while applying the tag on an attempted steal of third base. It took a textbook ninth-inning rally for the Dodgers to salvage a victory.

Here’s the big moment:

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Coming into 2025, you might not have expected Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement to play central roles on a playoff contender. Neither player was an above-average hitter last season; in fact, each hit for a 93 wRC+ while playing regularly for a team that won just 74 games. Yet the pair rank first and second in position player WAR on the Blue Jays, thanks not only to improved offense but exceptional glovework, with Kirk battling the Giants’ Patrick Bailey for the top spot in two catching metrics, and Clement ranking among the best third basemen while also posting strong metrics in limited duty at the three other infield positions. The pair have not only helped the Blue Jays to a 47-38 record and the top AL Wild Card position, but also the top ranking in my annual midseason defensive breakdown.

Kirk and Clement aren’t Toronto’s only defensive stalwarts. Second baseman Andrés Giménez and center fielder Myles Straw, a pair of light-hitting glove whizzes acquired from the Guardians in separate trades this past winter, have been strong at their respective positions, with the latter helping to cover for the absences of Daulton Varsho. A Gold Glove winner last year, Varsho missed the first month of this season recovering from right rotator cuff surgery, and returned to the injured list on June 1 due to a strained left hamstring. Even in limited duty, Straw, Varsho, and Giménez — who missed about four weeks due to a quad strain, with Clement filling in at second for most of that time — have all rated as three to five runs above average according to Statcast’s Fielding Runs Value (FRV), and five to eight above average according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Clement has totaled 12 DRS and 10 FRV at the four infield spots; in 359.2 innings at third, he’s second in the majors in both DRS (7) and FRV (5).

This is the third year in a row I’ve taken a midseason dip into the alphabet soup of defensive metrics, including Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our own catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages). One longtime standby, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), has been retired, which required me to adjust my methodology. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folk! Greetings from Wellfleet, where I’m on my annual family (semi) vacation

12:02

Jay Jaffe: This is my working week up here, which kicked off with my tribute to the late Dave Parker, who sadly passed away less than a month before his Hall of Fame induction https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-the-cobra-dave-parker-1951-202…

12:04

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you have to be a strong proponent of Parker’s HOF case to feel the sadness that comes with the timing of his death. I’m glad he experienced the outpouring of joy, appreciation and love that came with the news of his election.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: I’m working on my annual midseason look at the best team defenses, and will have something on Clayton Kershaw’s run for 3,000 strikeouts later this week as well.

12:05

Jay Jaffe: Planning to take in a Cape Cod League game sometime after the 4th

12:05

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the show

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Last December, 33 years after he last played, Dave Parker was finally elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The lefty-swinging, righty-throwing “Cobra” had once been regarded as the game’s best all-around player, a 6-foot-5, 230-pound slugger who could hit for power and average, had plenty of speed as well as a strong and accurate throwing arm, and exuded as much charisma and swagger as any player of his era. But injuries, cocaine use, and poor conditioning curtailed his prime, and while he rebounded to complete a lengthy and successful career, in 15 years on the writers’ ballots, he’d never drawn even one-third of the support needed for election. He hadn’t come close in three tries on Era Committee ballots, either, but buoyed by the positive attention he had generated while waging a very public battle with Parkinson’s Disease, and backed by a favorable mix of familiar faces on the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee, he finally gained entry to the Hall, alongside the late Dick Allen.

Unfortunately, Parker did not live to deliver the speech he said he’d been holding for 15 years. Just shy of one month from the day he was to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he passed away at age 74 due to complications from Parkinson’s Disease, which he was diagnosed with in 2012.

Parker is the third Hall of Famer to die between election and induction. Eppa Rixey, a lefty who pitched in the National League from 1912 to ’33, was elected by the Veterans Committee on January 27, 1963. He died one month and one day later, at the age of 71. Leon Day, a righty who starred in the Negro Leagues from 1934 to ’46, and later played in Mexico and in the affiliated minor leagues, was elected by the Veterans Committee on March 7, 1995. He died six days later, at the age of 78. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s no secret the Dodgers have been hurting for pitching because, well, their pitchers have been getting hurt. As during last October’s championship run, at times they’ve resorted to bullpen games, including a couple with Shohei Ohtani serving as an opener while rebuilding his pitch count following UCL reconstruction surgery. Taking a page from previous seasons under manager Dave Roberts, they’ve also snuck in a handful of innings from position players, not only when they’ve been on the short end of blowouts, but when they’ve led. Enrique Hernández has pitched five times, four in games in which the Dodgers thrashed opponents. Even with tighter rules in place for when teams can hand the ball to position players, the trend is nearing its height in popularity again following a recent dip.

It’s been nearly three years since I checked in on the trend of position players pitching. What was once a fun little beat to cover became less enjoyable as the practice proliferated to the point that Major League Baseball had to codify when teams could do it. Thankfully the occasions themselves are still appropriately light-hearted, full of giggles, eephus pitches, and batting-practice fastballs.

Here’s the evolution of the trend over the past decade, expressed as a percentage of total relief appearances:

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Fernando Tatis Jr. was fortunate that the pitch that hit him on the right wrist last week didn’t cause a fracture, but elsewhere in the NL West, Corbin Carroll wasn’t so lucky. On Monday, the Diamondbacks learned that their 24-year-old star has suffered a chip fracture in his left wrist, the result of being hit by a pitch on June 18; he hadn’t played since. Carroll is the second Arizona regular to land on the injured list this week due to a pitch-induced fracture that was only discovered belatedly, after catcher Gabriel Moreno, and he’ll miss significant time. As if the Diamondbacks — who lost ace Corbin Burnes and late-inning relievers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk to Tommy John surgery earlier this month — needed more bad news, they’ve lost infielder Ildemaro Vargas to a fractured metatarsal, and are crossing their fingers in hopes that both Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez can avoid the IL after making early exits from Monday’s blowout win.

In the eighth inning of last Wednesday’s game in Toronto, Carroll was hit on the left hand by a 91-mph sinker from the Blue Jays’ Justin Bruihl. While he stayed in the game to run the bases, he departed at the end of the inning:

Initial X-rays were negative, and both Carroll and the Diamondbacks hoped that the timing of the right fielder’s return would depend mainly on pain tolerance. After missing the team’s next four games in Toronto and Colorado — during which he remained available to pinch-run and play defense, though the call never came — Carroll was reexamined when the team arrived in Chicago to play the White Sox on Monday. MRI results and additional testing revealed that he had suffered a chip fracture on the back of his hand.

A chip fracture, sometimes referred to as an avulsion fracture, occurs when a small piece of bone is pulled away from the larger bone, generally by a ligament or tendon. “That’s still a little bit confusing to all of us,” said manager Torey Lovullo of the diagnosis. “He’s going to continue to get some opinions just to find out what that official diagnosis means and what the time frame will be.” Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday in San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. homered against the Royals, a towering shot that gave the slugger a moment to admire his work and stylishly set down his bat before trotting around the bases. Beyond that flourish, it was a timely hit, as the three-run, seventh-inning blast expanded a 2-1 lead and helped the Padres to a much-needed victory. Of particular interest to these eyes — and no doubt to those of Padres fans — was the fact that the homer was Tatis’ first since May 27, ending the longest drought of his career.

The 26-year-old slugger connected against a 96-mph sinker from the Royals’ Taylor Clarke. It came off the bat at 107.9 mph, but its estimated distance was a modest 380 feet:

“It was heavy,” Tatis said of his 21-game homerless streak. “Everybody knew it, I knew it, how long it was. I’ve just been grinding.” Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday against the Mets, Chris Sale nearly went the distance for the first time in over six years. Now he’s been sidelined — an all-too-familiar occurrence in recent years — thanks to a freak injury, a fractured rib cage suffered while making an acrobatic defensive play. His loss interrupts a strong follow-up to his first Cy Young-winning season and a stretch in which the Braves have tried to dig themselves out of their early-season hole.

At Truist Park, Sale shut out the Mets on four hits through the first eight innings, needing just 102 pitches. With a 5-0 lead, manager Brian Snitker sent his ace back out for the ninth, giving him a shot at his first shutout since June 5, 2019, when he spun a three-hitter for the Red Sox against the Royals. Facing Juan Soto to lead off the inning, Sale ran the count full, then induced the slugger to hit a soft chopper to the right side of the infield. The 36-year-old lefty dove for the ball halfway between the mound and first base, landed on his left side while stopping it, and recovered to throw to first from his knees. It was an impressive play, if not an entirely necessary one given the score and the possibility that second baseman Ozzie Albies could have thrown out the none-too-fleet-footed Soto. “Do you think he wants this complete game?” marveled play-by-play broadcaster Brandon Gaudin.

With the adrenaline pumping, Sale didn’t show any sign of injury. He followed up his diving play by striking out Pete Alonso, blowing a 96-mph four-seamer by him for his sixth punchout of the night. He was one strike away from finishing when Brandon Nimmo blooped a single into left field on his 116th pitch of the night. Not wanting to push the matter any further — Sale hadn’t gone past 116 pitches since August 19, 2017, and no pitcher this season has gone past 117 — Snitker brought in closer Raisel Iglesias, who needed just two pitches to close out the game by retiring Luis Torrens on a grounder. Read the rest of this entry »

Though he’s only 32 years old and in his 12th major league season, Mookie Betts has already done enough to secure a spot in the Hall of Fame. He’s made eight All-Star teams, won six Gold Gloves as a right fielder, taken home an MVP award while finishing second three times, and helped his teams to three championships. (He’s the only active position player with three rings) He already ranks eighth among right fielders in JAWS, and is fourth in seven-year peak score, behind only Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, and Henry Aaron. Like all the great ones, he’s hardly content to rest on his laurels. Not only is he in the midst of his third straight season making substantial contributions to the Dodgers’ middle infield, but he’s emerged as a star-caliber shortstop in a mid-career move that lacks a modern parallel.

“For me he’s a grade and a half better at that position than he was last year,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts over Memorial Day Weekend, during the team’s trip to Citi Field. “He looks like a major league shortstop now, where last year there were times I didn’t feel that way. But I think he’s a guy that loves a challenge and he’s really realized that challenge and keeps getting better each night.”

Asked to elaborate on what has changed for Betts, Roberts said, “Repetitions, confidence, he’s had a lot of different plays that he’s been able to see in games — but I think [the biggest difference] is confidence. He’s just a better defender right now.” Read the rest of this entry »