Aaron Judge has been in a slump lately, and what’s more, his right shoulder has been bothering him when he swings the bat. The 34-year-old slugger sat out the Yankees’ three-game series against the Guardians this week after initially being diagnosed with a bone bruise on a right upper rib. On Thursday, after consulting with multiple doctors, including a specialist in thoracic outlet syndrome, the Yankees announced that Judge has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right first rib, an injury that will sideline him for several weeks and leave a sizable hole in the New York offense.

According to the Yankees, Judge will require a period of rest and limited activity, and then will undergo re-imaging in four to six weeks — sometime in early-to-mid-July — after which the next steps will be determined. The team added that it does expect Judge to return this season.

Prior to Tuesday, Judge had started all 59 of the Yankees’ games, either in right field (53 times) or at designated hitter (six times). He had been experiencing pain in his right shoulder for some indeterminate amount of time, with the problem particularly affecting his swing during the team’s series in Sacramento this past weekend. He went 2-for-12 with three strikeouts against the A’s, though he did record five hard-hit balls out of the nine he put into play. Perhaps more tellingly, he had homered just twice over the past four weeks, and from May 11–22, went 11 games without a single RBI, the longest such stretch of his career; he had 10-game droughts in 2016, ’19, and ’23. To be fair, Judge’s latest drought owes something to his teammates. The Yankees hit just .214/.306/.363 during that 11-game span, giving him just six plate appearances with runners in scoring position; he went 0-for-5 with a walk. Read the rest of this entry »

If you were only looking at the top-line numbers that Roki Sasaki has posted through 10 starts — a 4.59 ERA and a 5.04 FIP in 51 innings — you could be forgiven for thinking that the 24-year-old righty had made little progress since last year’s abbreviated rookie season. At times, it has seemed as though he might be better off ironing out his mechanics and approach in Triple-A or in the bullpen, where he found some success last fall after missing four and a half months with a shoulder impingement. While Sasaki’s early-season starts brought to mind last year’s struggles, a little over a month ago he made a change to his repertoire, adding a second offspeed pitch to his mix. Since then, he’s pitched more effectively thanks not only to the new offering, but also to better command and velocity.

Sasaki’s improvement has come at a particularly opportune time for the Dodgers, as they’re once again carrying on without either Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell. Glasnow left his May 6 start after just one inning due to back spasms and still hasn’t been cleared to throw off a mound yet, while Snell didn’t make his season debut until May 9 due to shoulder soreness, then lasted just three innings before discomfort in his elbow forced him from his start. He was diagnosed with loose bodies in the elbow and underwent surgery using the same NanoNeedle Scope 2.0 procedure that Dr. Neal ElAttrache had just used on Tarik Skubal. The new version of the surgery is aimed at accelerating recovery time, but Snell has been moved to the 60-day injured list nonetheless, and can’t return until early July. Increasingly, it appears Glasnow won’t be back before July either.

Sasaki’s new pitch is a splitter, but it’s not the same splitter he threw last season, and it’s not entirely new; it bears more resemblance to the one he threw in NPB with the Chiba Lotte Marines and in the 2023 World Baseball Classic for Team Japan than it does to its immediate predecessor. Statcast has redefined the offspeed pitch he threw last year as a forkball and is tracking the two pitches separately. Sasaki throws his splitter about five miles an hour faster than his forkball, and relatively speaking, it gets a bit more rise and a lot more arm-side run. Since introducing the new pitch — which I’ll get into more below — he’s lasted at least five innings in all six of his starts, something he’d done in just four out of eight starts last year and one out of his first four this year. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of June — it’s lovely here in Brooklyn and I wish I could take this outside. I … probably could except I’m not sure how strong the wifi is in the back yard. Hmmm.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, yesterday I wrote about the myriad issues that have led to the Tigers bottoming out. At 23-38, they’re still tied for the majors’ worst record, but last night they did win 10-9, scoring more than 6 runs for the first time since May 3 and at least 10 runs for the first time since April 16. The Jaffe Reverse Jinx strikes again!

12:03

Jay Jaffe: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-tigers-have-collapsed-but-not-because-…

12:09

Jay Jaffe: whoa whoa whoa, that’s a bit too lofty, I think. We’ve seen Cole and Schlittler pitch like aces, and Rodón’s been reasonably close at his peak but right now is dealing with significant command issues that make it very difficult to imagine him getting back to his 2021–22 form. Warren has taken a big step forward, and I like Weathers but don’t see him as having the stuff to be more than a mid-rotation guy.

Read the rest of this entry »

In early February, just before camps opened, the Tigers added both Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander to their rotation. After a rather underwhelming winter full of speculation as to whether they would trade two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, a pending free agent, the moves kept them in win-now mode, making them the favorites in the AL Central. Yet injuries to Skubal, Verlander, and several position players have hamstrung Detroit, and after playing .500 ball through the end of April, the team crashed and burned in May, losing eight series in a row while going 6-22 due to an utterly inept offense. At this point, the Tigers have dug themselves a big enough hole that trading Skubal may be a necessity.

This past week was particularly bleak. First, the Tigers dropped two out of three at home to the Angels, the only AL team who had a worse record than them. After Thursday’s 7-1 defeat, the two were both 22-35, and the Tigers followed that by getting swept by the White Sox over the weekend. On Friday night, after Troy Melton and Will Vest held Chicago to one run through eight innings, Kyle Finnegan allowed the tying run in the ninth. And then, once the Tigers retook the lead with a run in the top of the 10th, Drew Anderson served up a walk-off two-run homer to Miguel Vargas. It was Detroit’s seventh walk-off loss this season, the most in the majors. On Saturday, the Tigers were trounced, 7-1, and then on Sunday, when manager A.J. Hinch pulled starter Keider Montero after he’d thrown six scoreless innings on just 65 pitches, Anderson came in and served up a game-tying solo shot to Colson Montgomery, then yielded three more singles and the go-ahead run. The Tigers lost 2-1, for their 21st loss in 25 games. They’re now 5-13 in one-run games — the most losses of any team in that context — and, at 22-38, are tied with the Rockies for the majors’ worst record.

This is just about the last thing anyone expected of the Tigers. Led by Skubal, they claimed back-to-back Wild Card berths in 2024 and ’25, surging over the final two months of the former season to snag a playoff spot, then spending most of last year in first place, though they faded late and lost the division title on the final day. Both times, they won their Wild Card Series before being bounced in a five-game Division Series, including last year’s squeaker against the Mariners, which took until the 15th inning of Game 5 to decide. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Friday, after missing the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery, Gerrit Cole fared well in his return to the Yankees rotation, firing six scoreless innings against the Rays even while struggling to miss bats. On Wednesday night in Kansas City, Cole truly looked back, this time throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out 10 Royals without issuing a walk. The former Cy Young winner’s reassuring performance is a welcome development for a rotation that has weathered some high-profile absences — and will have to continue doing so.

The Yankees began the season with Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt all recovering from elbow surgeries, and while the first two have now returned, Max Fried — their most valuable pitcher last season — has been sidelined for a spell, as has 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil. Nonetheless, the team’s rotation has been one the game’s best thus far, leading the majors in WAR (7.5), leading the AL in FIP (3.22), and ranking a close second in the league in both ERA (2.98) and strikeout rate (24.5%). Despite backing that unit with the most potent offense in the league, the 34-22 club finds itself trailing the Rays (34-19) by 1 1/2 games in the AL East.

Prior to last Friday, Cole’s last competitive appearance in the majors had been a reminder of a golden opportunity lost: His inexplicable failure to cover first base in the fifth inning of Game 5 of the 2024 World Series fueled the Dodgers’ comeback from a 5-0 deficit on a night they ended up clinching the title. Limited to 17 starts that season due to nerve irritation and edema in his elbow after finally bringing home a Cy Young award in 2023, Cole made just two appearances in spring training last year before being diagnosed with a torn UCL and undergoing surgery. He progressed enough in his recovery to make two brief appearances in Grapefruit League games this spring, then continued his rehab by making six starts spread across three minor league levels before returning to the Yankees. Read the rest of this entry »

When he broke in with the Brewers last season, Jacob Misiorowski was tough to miss, unless you were a hitter trying to catch up to his ridiculous velocity. The gangly 6-foot-7 righty announced his presence by reaching 100.5 mph on his first major league pitch and topping out at 102.2 mph in five no-hit innings against the Cardinals in Milwaukee on June 12. He followed that up with six perfect innings against the Twins before yielding a walk and a homer, and was named to the National League All-Star team as an injury replacement after just five starts. He soon leveled off, and finished with comparatively unspectacular numbers — he was an afterthought in the NL Rookie of the Year voting — but this season is a different story. The 24-year-old righty has dominated hitters like a true ace, and has improved in practically every important statistical category.

Misiorowski’s latest outing, once again facing the Cardinals in Milwaukee, was both a gem and an awe-inspiring display of firepower. Monday’s effort began with an unprecedented, if somewhat unproductive, barrage of six consecutive four-seam fastballs to JJ Wetherholt, each clocked at 103.0 mph or higher — but four of them were well outside the strike zone, resulting in a walk:

Misiorowsi overcame the leadoff walk, escaping the inning by throwing just seven more pitches on back-to-back three-pitch strikeouts of Iván Herrera and Alec Burleson, then a first-pitch groundout by Jordan Walker. In fact, he retired 15 straight hitters after the walk, again completing five no-hit innings before yielding a leadoff single to Pedro Pagés in the sixth. The Cardinals turned that into a run after speedster Victor Scott II replaced Pagés on a forceout, took third on a single to right field by Wetherholt, and scored on a grounder by Herrera, but Misiorowski stuck around to complete the sixth and seventh innings before departing with a 4-1 lead. The Brewers won, 5-1. Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon! I hope you all enjoyed the three-day weekend.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: I flew solo while my wife and daughter drove upstate to visit my father-in-law (I had to stay behind to dog-sit). Did a lot of dad-puttering around the house, some repair projects, some yardwork, and a trek to Jersey City to see the 50th-anniversary celebration — and perhaps the final show ever — of The Feelies.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, back to baseball. Before we get started, I need to note that as with last week, we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. This is still something we’re evaluationg. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I’m not sure. Yes, it’s harder to come up with a great third baseman, and the Phillies have had their problems there since then (Alec Bohm has had one season above 2.0 WAR) but I think Harper was the better fit for the city and the culture, as Machado has been for the city and culture in San Diego

12:07

Jay Jaffe: the two are almost dead even in fWAR 27.9 to 27.7 for Harper, and that’s with an additional 107 games missed due to injuries

Read the rest of this entry »

On April 28, with the Phillies off to a 9-19 start — tied with the Mets for the worst in the majors — president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski fired manager Rob Thomson and named bench coach Don Mattingly as interim manager. Since then, the team has been red-hot, going 16-6 and (briefly) climbing above .500 for the first time since April 7. While they aren’t yet in a playoff position, the Phillies’ season has at least gotten a much-needed reset. Cristopher Sánchez and Kyle Schwarber appear to be on their way to especially productive campaigns, and Zack Wheeler has made a strong return from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome.

After winning the NL East in back-to-back seasons and making the playoffs four times in a row, at the outset of 2026, the Phillies appeared to have a pretty good shot at returning to October baseball, with a 24.4% chance of winning the division and a 68.8% chance of reaching the postseason according to our Playoff Odds. That said, they did have significant concerns, particularly with regards to their starting pitching and their remade outfield. Their rotation placed third in our preseason Positional Power Rankings, which seemed overly optimistic given not only the question marks regarding Wheeler but also the departure of Ranger Suarez for Boston, the ugly 6.01 ERA Aaron Nola put up last year, and the arrival of top pitching prospect Andrew Painter despite a subpar 2025 season at Triple-A. The remade outfield, with Justin Crawford taking over in center, Brandon Marsh settling in left in place of Max Kepler, and Adolis García replacing Nick Castellanos in right, offered a chance to improve upon last year’s subpar showing, but it was hardly a guarantee, particularly given that García had been non-tendered by the Rangers.

Under Thomson, the Phillies won just two of their first nine series, taking two out of three games from the Nationals at home and the Rockies in Colorado during the season’s first two weeks but losing series to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Cubs (twice) and Braves (twice) — with a 10-game losing streak spanning parts of their home-and-home series against the last two teams — before Dombrowski swung the axe. It was a surprising move given the Phillies’ success under Thomson, who himself took over for the fired Joe Girardi in June 2022, guided the team to its first pennant in 13 years, and won at a .580 clip while making the playoffs in every subsequent season. Read the rest of this entry »

If you were perusing the Padres’ team stats, you might do a double-take when comparing your first impressions of their performances to date against their standing in the National League West. Fernando Tatis Jr. is slugging .273 and has yet to homer, Manny Machado’s batting average is below the Mendoza Line, and two of their five players with a wRC+ of at least 100 are part-timers. On the other side of the ball, just three of their starting pitchers have ERAs below 5.00, one of whom (Nick Pivetta) has been out since mid-April due to a flexor strain. While closer Mason Miller has been lights out, their higher-leverage relievers have not been uniformly dominant. And yet with all of this, the Padres took over first place in their division on Monday night, after Michael King and friends stifled the Dodgers, 1-0, at Petco Park, the season’s first game between the two teams.

Contending teams have become the expectation in San Diego despite near-constant instability, with the Padres claiming Wild Card spots in four of the past six seasons under three different managers, now all departed in favor of first-year skipper Craig Stammen. They raised their payroll as high as $255 million in 2023, third highest in the game, before cutting back dramatically in the wake of owner Peter Seidler’s death in November 2023 and a subsequent battle for control of the franchise among his survivors. This year’s projected $209 million payroll ranks ninth. Yet somehow through the turmoil — including the pending sale of the team to Chelsea Football Club co-owner José E. Feliciano and his wife Kwanza Jones — the Padres are giving the Dodgers another run for their money.

But how? As you might have guessed given those subpar stats I cited above, the Padres are playing well above their heads relative to their raw numbers. At 29-18, they’re 11 games above .500 despite outscoring opponents by just eight runs, 196-188. They’re a major league-high 4.6 wins above their Pythagorean-projected winning percentage of .519, and five wins above their BaseRuns-projected winning percentage of .510, second to only the Rays. Based on their per-game BaseRuns numbers, the Padres have overachieved on the offensive side, scoring 0.22 runs per game more than their expected 3.98, but they’ve underachieved slightly on the pitching side, allowing 0.1 runs per game more than their projected 3.90. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. Apologies for missing last week, as I was in the midst of my big Ted Turner/Bobby Cox tribute piece and didn’t have the bandwidth to pull this off.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Before we get started, I need to note that we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. We’ll see how it goes. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.

12:05

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on the Padres’ surprising spot in the standings — first place in the NL West — despite the underperformances of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and others which should go up while this chat is underway.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Blake Snell heading for surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will be using the same NanoNeedle procedure as he used on Tarik Skubal — the Skubal Scope, as some are calling it — which could shave about a month off his recovery time https://blogs.fangraphs.com/everybody-whos-anybody-is-getting-loose-bo…

12:07

Jay Jaffe: oh, and here’s that Turner/Cox thing. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ted-turner-1938-2026-and-bobby-cox-1941-20… And now, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »