In his first three seasons, Patrick Bailey carved a niche as one of the game’s top defensive catchers, dominating the Statcast defensive leaderboards and winning two Gold Gloves. The development of his offense has lagged, however, and with the Giants struggling to score runs and sporting one of the majors’ worst records, they’ve decide they can live without Bailey’s glovework. On Saturday, they traded the 27-year-old backstop to the Guardians for 23-year-old lefty pitching prospect Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson and a Competitive Balance pick in the upcoming draft.

This is the second season in a row that president of baseball operations Buster Posey has shaken up San Francisco’s roster with an early-season trade; last year, it was the mid-June acquisition of slugger Rafael Devers in a blockbuster with Boston. You don’t have to squint too hard to accept that both trades were aimed at upgrading moribund offenses, but when the Giants dealt for Devers, they were 11 games above .500 (41-30), one game behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They felt they’d landed the offensive cornerstone that had eluded them after unsuccessful pursuits of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, a player who could help them return to the postseason for the first time since 2021. This time around, they entered the day of the trade 15-23, last in the division, and the move appears far more tilted toward the future, as Wilkinson has just gotten his feet wet in Double-A and the draft pick won’t make an immediate impact.

If this trade had occurred just prior to the deadline (August 3 this year), it might have been characterized as a white flag, part of a larger selloff. To these eyes, it’s a shakeup that at worst smacks of panic and at best places a lot of faith that Posey — a likely Hall of Fame catcher who has yet to show similar prowess as an executive — has found a diamond or two in the rough with his two recent catching acquisitions: Jesus Rodriguez, who came from the Yankees in last year’s Camilo Doval trade, and Daniel Susac, who was flipped by the Twins in December after being plucked from the A’s as a Rule 5 pick. Both are 24 years old and have fewer than 10 games of major league experience, with Susac, who turns 25 on May 14, currently on a rehab assignment after being sidelined by neuritis in his right elbow. Eric Haase, a 33-year-old backstop who hit his way out of a starting job in Detroit in 2023, started in Saturday’s 13-3 drubbing by the Pirates — San Francisco’s ninth loss in 11 games — while Rodriguez started Sunday’s 7-6 win, which lifted the team’s record to 16-24, still third worst in the NL. Read the rest of this entry »

With Thursday’s 6-2 win over the Mets, the Rockies snapped a six-game losing streak and lifted their record to 15-23, momentarily escaping the distinction of owning at least a share of the National League’s worst record, which is currently shared by those Mets and the Giants (14-23). If they are again one of the majors’ worst teams, the Rox are at least not on pace to approach last year’s 119 losses, nor are they entirely devoid of bright spots, including catcher Hunter Goodman, starter Tomoyuki Sugano, and relievers Chase Dollander and Antonio Senzatela. But by far their brightest spot lately has been the play of Mickey Moniak. Now in his second season with the team, Moniak leads the league in slugging percentage (.700), ranks second in wRC+ (176), and is third in home runs (11) despite barely having enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

Alas, the 18-game hitting streak Moniak rode into Thursday came to an end in that victory, as he went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a walk. He’d barely kept the streak alive on Wednesday night, going hitless in his first four plate appearances. He got under a pair of hard-hit balls against Mets starter Freddy Peralta, producing a popup to shortstop and a fly out to center field, both routine, and struck out twice, once against a high Peralta fastball and once against a low-and-away Brooks Raley sweeper. By the time he came to the plate for the fifth time, the Rockies were down 10-4 with one out in the ninth. Moniak ripped a hot smash 106.7 mph just to the left of pitcher Sean Manaea and past the outstretched glove of second baseman Marcus Semien as he dove to his right.

During Thursday’s game, Moniak’s contact wasn’t nearly as solid, though he almost kept the streak alive with a soft liner. The ball’s 64.3-mph exit velocity and 21-degree launch angle made it the kind of flare that actually lands for a hit more often than not, with just enough oomph to get over the infield dirt; the expected batting average on such balls is .550, but Semien did a fine job chasing that one down. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — “He brought that New York theater to the ballpark,” said Aaron Judge about John Sterling before Monday’s game, offering a perfect summation of the approach of the longtime Yankees broadcaster, who died earlier that day at the age of 87 in Englewood, New Jersey. Dressed in a suit and tie even though listeners couldn’t see him, prone to dropping a reference to a midcentury Broadway musical while celebrating a Yankees home run, and delivering his lines with a booming baritone capable of reaching the cheap seats, Sterling brought a unique and dramatic flair to the job.

His grandiloquent style could be polarizing, his puns agonizing. His personalized calls for each Yankee player’s home runs — from “Bernie goes boom! Bern, baby, Bern!” for Bernie Williams to “Robbie Cano, don’t ya know?” for Robinson Canó to “He sends a Tex message!” for Mark Teixeira — could sound a bit corny at times, his stentorian elongation of the word “the,” as in his oft-imitated “Thuuuuuuuuh Yankees win!” a hammy flourish.

When you root for a team, though, calls like Sterling’s punctuate the high points of fandom and the thrill of victory. Sterling never failed to convey the excitement of the ballpark with his triumphant blasts, but he easily downshifted into a calmer cadence with his partners, most notably Michael Kay and Suzyn Waldman, during more mundane moments. Such conversations are the comforting stuff of summers past, and such enduring presences in the booth offer us yardsticks by which we can measure our lives. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of May! Happy Cinco de Mayo to those celebrating, and a belated happy Star Wars Day if that’s your thing.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I wrote about the league scoring environment through the end of April, noting that walk rates are up, likely due to the impact of the new ABS Challenge system https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-walks-more-runs-an-early-look-at-offe…

12:04

Jay Jaffe: On Sunday I had a bizarre gardening accident, but fared better than the average Spinal Tap drummer https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3mkxvubesl22v

12:05

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about Ildemaro Vargas’ unlikely hitting streak. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ildemaro-vargas-is-suddenly-a-hitting-mach…), and last night I went up to Yankee Stadium to do some reporting to supplement a tribute to longtime Yankees radio play-by-play broadcaster John Sterling, who passed away at age 87. That will be up tomorrow.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Sterling, of course, is famous in the site’s lore https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608

12:08

Jay Jaffe: and one final programming note: next Tuesday evening I’ll be accompanying MLB.com’s Michael Clair to Word Bookstores in Williamsburg to moderate a discussion of his book on the Czech Republic’s national baseball team and its unlikely rise: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelclair.bsky.social/post/3ml4k6v4zqs2u

Read the rest of this entry »

You’re forgiven if you’re not exactly familiar with Diamondbacks utilityman Ildemaro Vargas. Though he’s spent parts of 10 seasons in the majors, the switch-hitting 34-year-old has been designated for assignment seven times, suited up for five different teams, and has never played more than 97 major league games in a season. From 2017–25, he netted a grand total of 1.5 WAR in 460 games, reaching 1.0 WAR in a season just once, in 2022. Yet Vargas just finished the hot streak of his life, one that made a bit of history. His 4-for-4 performance against the Cubs on Friday afternoon pushed his batting average to .404 and marked his 27th consecutive game with a hit dating back to last season, the longest in the majors in seven years and the longest ever by a Venezuela-born player; meanwhile, his 24-game streak to start the season is the second longest of the integration era. Vargas was finally held hitless on Saturday, but maintained a lofty perch on the batting leaderboards after a 1-for-4 performance on Sunday.

Vargas ended the weekend hitting .382/.406/.657, good enough to lead the majors in batting average and the National League in slugging percentage, thanks in part to his six home runs — a total that’s already matched his career high, set with the Diamondbacks in 2019. His 195 wRC+ leads the NL as well, while his on-base percentage ranks fourth in the league and his 1.5 WAR is virtually tied for seventh. Small sample though it may be, that’s a remarkable performance coming from a player who did not figure to be central to the plans of the Diamondbacks after hitting a meager .270/.292/.383 (85 wRC+) in 38 games and 121 plate appearances for the team last year.

Vargas was originally signed by the Cardinals out of Venezuela in 2008, so this is his 19th season of professional baseball. He’s now on his fourth stint with Arizona, which first signed him out of the independent Atlantic League in 2015, after he had been released by St. Louis. He reached the majors for a couple sips of coffee in 2017, and continued to shuffle between the minors and the majors until being DFA’d and traded to the Twins in August 2020. From there, in rapid succession, he bounced to the Cubs (2020), and then to the Pirates and back to the Diamondbacks (both 2021). He split 2022 between the Cubs and Nationals, the latter of whom kept him around through the ’24 season and gave him more regular play than any other team. The Diamondbacks signed him to a minor league deal in late January 2025; he exercised an opt-out in late May but quickly re-signed with the team. Four weeks later — after just 10 games in the majors — he was hit on the right foot by a curveball, fracturing his fifth metatarsal and sidelining him for about eight weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

Major League Baseball’s rules have been in a constant state of flux during the 2020s, with the implementation of the extra-innings runner (the so-called Manfred Man), the universal designated hitter, the three-batter minimum, the pitch clock, the disengagement rule, larger bases, and the infield shift ban accompanying additional changes to roster sizes and the injured list. Most — but not all — of these rule changes have been aimed at livening the game up, with more action and fewer dead spots, and have generally favored offenses rather than pitchers. This year’s Big New Rule is the Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System, which has shaken up batters’ and pitchers’ understanding of the strike zone. With the month of April now behind us, it’s worth checking in on this season’s numbers, in part to see what kind of impact the ABS is having.

For starters, scoring levels are up, both relative to last year as whole and to the opening month, by which I mean April plus the handful of games in March that preceded it (a convention I’ll maintain throughout this article). In a vacuum, that would rate as a bit of a surprise, since temperatures are generally cooler in the opening weeks than in the summer months, reducing the extent to which fly balls carry, and thus scoring levels. On the other hand, pitchers tend not to throw as hard as they do later in the season, which would favor hitters, as well. Yet through the end of April, teams are scoring more runs per game than in all but one of the past five seasons’ opening months:

I’ve included a bunch of numbers there to unpack, but first I’ll note that the timing of Opening Day influences the size of these samples. The 2021 season began on April 1, while the owners’ lockout delayed the start of the ’22 season until April 7. With the ensuing Collective Bargaining Agreement creating the need to shoehorn an additional round of playoffs into the schedule, Opening Day is now routinely a March thing, and it often begins with the baseball equivalent of an amuse-bouche. While all 30 teams kicked off play on March 30 in 2023, in ’24 a pair of games in Seoul on March 20–21 preceded the stateside Opening Day of March 28. The 2025 season began in similar fashion, with a pair of games in Tokyo on March 18–19 before everybody else got down to business on March 27. This year featured one game on March 25, with just about everybody else starting on March 26. Read the rest of this entry »

The moment may prove fleeting, but at this writing, the Braves have a claim as the best team in baseball. At the outset of this season, Atlanta looked as though it might be headed for disaster yet again due to injuries and absences, with another Jurickson Profar suspension and the loss of Spencer Strider providing a particular sense of déjà vu. Instead of stumbling out of the gate, however, and even with a far-from-complete roster, the 2026 Braves have dominated opponents on both sides of the ball. At 21-9, they own the majors’ best record — and it appears they’ll get Strider back soon, as well.

Nearly five weeks in, the Braves haven’t lost a series. They kicked things off at Truist Park by taking two out of three from both the Royals and A’s, then went on the road and split a four-game set with the Diamondbacks before taking two out of three from the Angels. Upon returning to Atlanta, they took two of three from both the Guardians and Marlins, and after that sandwiched a pair of series wins against the reeling Phillies — a three-game sweep in Philadelphia and then two out of three at home — around a three-out-of-four series win in Washington. That’s eight series wins and one tie to date; by comparison, the Dodgers and Yankees (both 20-10) have each dropped pair of three-game series and split a four-gamer.

To be fair, after last year’s 76-86 dud and the retirement of manager Brian Snitker (replaced by bench coach Walt Weiss), the Braves were still essentially projected as NL East co-favorites alongside the Mets, according to our Playoff Odds, with a forecast for 89.6 wins, a 30.6% chance of winning the division, and a 79.0% chance of making the playoffs. Still, few expected them to return to dominate in such fashion. Through 30 games, they’ve matched the second-best start in franchise history, a record shared by the division-winning 1969 and 2000 editions. The only time they’ve started better was in 1997, when they went 22-8 and finished 101-61. They’ve gone 16-6 against sub-.500 teams without even getting a shot at the struggling Mets, and 5-3 against teams .500 or better. Their current record isn’t a fluke, in that they’ve actually got slightly higher Pythagorean- and Base Runs-projected winning percentages (.722 and .695, respectively) than their actual mark; both of those rank second in the majors behind the Dodgers, while their +68 run differential is tops. The Braves have run up those numbers by scoring a major league-high 5.70 runs per game and allowing just 3.43 per game, tied with the Yankees for second in the majors and behind only the Dodgers. Read the rest of this entry »

Three weeks ago, things weren’t looking great for the Cubs. True, the season hadn’t hit the two-week mark at that point, but the NL Central favorites had started 4-6 and were running last in the division. Two members of their starting rotation, Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton, had just landed on the injured list, and right fielder Seiya Suzuki had yet to play after straining a ligament in his right knee during the World Baseball Classic. Soon, the injury bug would bite their bullpen, as well, but just as it did, the team reeled off a 10-game winning streak, the majors’ longest this season. While that ended on Saturday at the hands of the Dodgers, followed by another loss on Sunday, the Cubs do appear to be back on track. With a 17-11 record, they’re one game behind the Reds for the division lead.

Their streak began on April 14, a day after the Phillies pounded them 13-7 at Citizens Bank Park. To that point, the Cubs were 7-9, having won three-game series against the Angels and Rays but lost three-game series to the Nationals, Guardians, and Pirates. But Chicago turned the tables on the Phillies by dropping double-digit run totals on back-to-back days, winning 10-4 and 11-2, before returning home to kick off a sweep of the Mets with a 12-4 victory. The Cubs then capped that sweep two days later with Nico Hoerner’s 10th-inning walk-off sacrifice fly, then circled back to take four straight from the Phillies, including another 10th-inning walk-off, this time on a Dansby Swanson single on April 23. Their winning streak reached 10 games with a 6-4 victory over the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Friday. It was Chicago’s longest since 2016, when the club won 11 straight from July 31 to August 12.

It certainly didn’t hurt that the Cubs’ schedule coincided with both the Mets and Phillies playing particularly bad baseball. New York lost 12 in a row from April 8-21 and Philadelphia 10 in a row from April 14–24; both finished the weekend 9-19. The Cubs own the NL’s highest winning percentage against sub-.500 teams (.750, a 12-4 record), though they’re just 5-7 against those .500 or better after their two losses in Los Angeles this weekend. Read the rest of this entry »

Led by American League Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet, free agent signee Ranger Suarez, and trade acquisition Sonny Gray, the Red Sox were projected to have the majors’ top rotation in our preseason Positional Power Rankings. Four weeks in, the unit has been one of the majors’ worst, with Crochet getting pummeled and Gray underperforming before landing on the injured list earlier this week with a right hamstring strain. The bullpen has been shaky, the offense weak, and after losing the first two games of a three-game series against the Yankees at Fenway Park, the Red Sox now sit 9-15, last in the AL East.

Through 24 games, this is the Red Sox’s worst start since 2020, when they went 6-18 en route to a 24-36 record and a last-place finish. In terms of full-season futility, in 2019 the Red Sox — defending champions at the time — started 9-15 before rallying to finish at 84-78, third in the division but outside the playoff picture. After winning 89 games last season and making their first postseason appearance since 2021, this year was supposed to be different, but since Opening Day, the team’s seasonal win projection has fallen from 85 to 80.5, the fourth-largest drop in the majors ahead of only the Mets (-7.1), Phillies (-5.7) and Royals (-4.5). Only those three teams have larger drops in their Playoff Odds:

The driver of Boston’s success was supposed to be the rotation, headed by Crochet. After making his first All-Star team with the White Sox in 2024, he emerged as a true ace last year, leading the majors in both innings (205.1) and strikeouts (255) while ranking second in the AL in strikeout rate (31.3%), xERA (2.88), FIP (2.89), and WAR (5.8) — behind Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in all of those categories — and third in ERA (2.59). Read the rest of this entry »

When the Dodgers signed Edwin Díaz to a three-year, $69 million deal last December, it marked the second straight winter that they paid top dollar for a free agent closer, after they’d inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million deal in January 2025. That they double-dipped in such fashion was both a particularly ostentatious display of their purchasing power and an acknowledgement that even the best relievers can be fickle and fragile. Scott scuffled throughout last season while also missing time due to multiple injuries, and ultimately spent October as a bystander as the Dodgers cobbled together a makeshift late-game bullpen and won their second consecutive championship. Now, after struggling with his velocity and command, Díaz has also gone down with an injury. On Monday, one day after failing to retire any of the four Rockies he faced, he was placed on the 15-day injured list due to loose bodies in his right elbow. He is set to undergo arthroscopic surgery on Wednesday to have them removed.

Even in small-sample season, the 32-year-old Díaz’s numbers tell enough of a story to suggest that something is amiss. He’s allowed seven runs in six innings for a 10.50 ERA, accompanied by a 4.96 FIP and a 4.39 xERA. His 15.2% differential between his 30.3% strikeout rate and 15.2% walk rate is just over half of his 29.8% differential last year. His four-seam fastball has averaged just 95.7 mph, down from last year’s average of 97.2 mph while with the Mets, for whom he posted a 1.63 ERA and a 2.28 FIP in 66 1/3 innings. His average arm angle has dropped, changing the movement profiles of both his four-seamer and slider:

Relative to last season, Díaz has lost over two and a half inches of horizontal run on his fastball and nearly an inch of cut on his slider, which itself is one mile per hour slower, as well. Neither pitch has fooled hitters to nearly the same degree as before, and his overall swinging strike rate has dropped from 17.3% in 2024 and 18.0% last year to 9.1% this season. Read the rest of this entry »