* if that’s even possible

So, Jarrod Dyson’s stolen base. Pretty big deal. Here’s what it was worth. Here’s how it happened. Here’s what it looked like:

Didn’t decide the game, but it helped decide the game, and that’s about as valuable as a stolen base gets. What do I mean by that? First of all, considering context, Dyson’s steal is clearly the biggest steal of 2014, so far. But considering only game context, the only steals worth more WPA in 2014 are steals and throwing errors that allowed the runners to keep going. On May 2, in the bottom of the ninth of a one-run game, Brian Roberts also stole third with one out. By WPA, Roberts and Dyson are about equal, although Dyson gets a tiny edge for stealing in a worse run environment.

We can also look at this a slightly different way. I prefer to think of the one-game wild-card playoffs as being a part of the overall playoffs. That is, I think yesterday’s game was a playoff game. So, this is coming straight from David Appelman, who did the research for me: Dyson’s steal was the most valuable playoff steal, by WPA, since at least 2002, and that’s simply as far back as our data goes. Dyson’s steal was more valuable than, say, Dave Roberts‘, and while Roberts’ will be remembered forever because of everything else that happened afterward, Dyson’s steal will at least be remembered for a long time, and if the Royals were to win the World Series, well, who’s forgetting? The Red Sox didn’t win because of Dave Roberts, but he played an important role. If the Royals win, they won’t have won because of Jarrod Dyson, but he will have played an important role. Hell, Roberts’ steal came with the Red Sox behind 3-0 in the series. Dyson’s steal was arguably of a greater leverage.

Anyway, I don’t want to come off critical of Dave Roberts, because he did an important and memorable thing. But, so did Jarrod Dyson, maximizing the value of an otherwise relatively minor part of the game. Biggest playoff steal in more than a decade. Maybe a lot more than a decade, I don’t know. The last three years, Dyson has baseball’s No. 3 wSB value, behind only Jacoby Ellsbury and Rajai Davis, who have played a lot more. Ellsbury’s had 580 stolen base opportunities. Davis has had 384. Dyson has had 332. Jarrod Dyson might not be a great hitter, but he’s a great something, and he’s a fitting player to have such a big play forever in his history.