Marcus Stroman Tears ACL, Out for Season

What a lousy week for pitchers. Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, and Gavin Floyd have been felled by their arms, and now Marcus Stroman will join them on the disabled list after tearing the ACL in his left knee during practice today. Surgery to repair a torn ACL will cause him to miss the entire 2015 season.

This is a huge blow to the Blue Jays, as Stroman projected as their #1 starter; our depth charts forecast had him at +3.5 WAR in just under 200 innings. While this will mean a larger opportunity for either Marco Estrada or Daniel Norris, neither one is likely capable of providing what Stroman would have given the Jays, and this was a rotation already lacking in depth. While the Blue Jays don’t need to panic, the reality is that they probably need another starting pitcher now, and preferably a pretty good one.

Given their spot on the win curve — prior to Stroman’s injury, we gave them a 23% chance of winning the division and a 19% chance of winning the wild card — and the fact that they have a good number of core pieces at the tail ends of their careers, the Blue Jays are somewhat committed to trying to win in 2015. You don’t sign Russell Martin to a five year deal if you’re not pushing in on 2015.

The most obvious answer — and one that will likely be suggested immediately — will be a trade for Cole Hamels. He’s the only pitcher on the market who would give the Jays a legitimate replacement for Stroman’s production, and the team now has an incentive to pay more than they were willing to offer previously. That said, if the asking price remains focused on big league ready players, it’s not entirely clear that the Blue Jays actually have the ability to give the Phillies what they want without doing too much harm to their own team in the process; they don’t have the pitching depth to give up a guy like Norris to acquire Hamels, especially without Stroman around.

So, perhaps instead of aiming for the most expensive replacement around, the Jays will look for cheaper upside instead. The Nationals probably don’t want to trade Tanner Roark, but it’d be worth a phone call. Dillon Gee isn’t any good, but if the Mets wanted to move Jon Niese or Bartolo Colon, the Blue Jays should consider it. Or if they just wanted to take on some money without giving up any talent, I’m sure Edwin Jackson could be had with a subsidy.

But no matter what they do, the Blue Jays are going to be worse. This is a big blow. While the Darvish and Lee injuries were bad for the sport because they’re good pitchers, this is the most significant loss a real contender has suffered yet.