Nationals Keep Stephen Strasburg For Themselves
UPDATE: Strasburg gets fairly minor innings-based incentives, and he has what’s termed a “rolling opt-out” after years three and four. OK!
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There was a lot of chatter last offseason about next offseason, and about how dreary it looked. There was a line of thought that teams were happy to throw money around because they didn’t want to have to pick through next year’s free-agent crop. The options were shaping up to be thin behind Stephen Strasburg. The options are thinner now.
Chelsea Janes broke the news that Strasburg has re-signed with the Nationals long-term. Jon Heyman puts the contract at $175 million over seven years, probably with deferrals and opt-outs. You remember how this stuff works — deferrals reduce the present-day value of the deal, but opt-outs work in the other direction. Opt-outs remain en vogue, while deferrals remain particularly en vogue with the Nationals. Nothing too surprising about the details of the contract. More surprising is the existence of the contract in the first place.
Strasburg is represented by Scott Boras, and he was five months from free agency. Boras clients have skipped free agency because of an extension before, but this one wasn’t expected, not with Strasburg so obviously the best free-agent pitcher due up. Look at this list. LOOK AT IT. With Strasburg off the board, what’s best of what’s left? Rich Hill? Potentially James Shields? Potentially Scott Kazmir? Nothing against any of those pitchers, but they don’t blend Strasburg’s talent and intrigue. Even if Strasburg isn’t officially an ace yet, he was going to be the closest thing. Now he’s just going to keep the same uniform.
Which is not to suggest that Strasburg and Boras aren’t doing well here. How much more could Strasburg really get? David Price got $217 million over seven years, with one opt-out, but Price has the better history, with no scar. That ligament replacement is meaningful, because there’s concern ligaments are vulnerable to re-busting, which makes Strasburg appear more of a risk. By no means should Strasburg be considered a ticking time bomb. He’ll either get hurt again or he won’t, and no one knows the answer. The Nationals know Strasburg pretty well. I think it’s safe to say there’s some additional risk, of either injury or under-performance, and when you factor that in, this is a hell of a deal. Strasburg’s talent + perfect health might = $250 million. Today we see Strasburg’s talent + Strasburg’s history = $175 million.
Over the past three calendar years, out of every starter with at least 300 innings, Strasburg ranks 17th in adjusted ERA, 10th in adjusted FIP, and fourth in adjusted xFIP. At present, for the first time in his career, Strasburg has four pitches he’s comfortable throwing at least a tenth of the time, and that could be a sign of his evolving toward someone better able to generate weak contact. And maybe that’s not the case, I don’t know, because Strasburg sure does throw a lot of innings against the Braves, but there’s no doubting his ability to strike batters out, and walks have never been a problem. This year, there are some other encouraging signs. Strasburg isn’t declining, is the point.
Perhaps his history means he’ll decline soon. Perhaps his history means he’ll get hurt again soon. We still don’t actually know that much about how guys bounce back from UCL replacement, but based just on the Strasburg example to this point, he’s got bullets left in him. The Nationals are counting on his having thousands. This is bad news for would-be spenders, and would-be buyers of Sonny Gray, but now Strasburg has cashed in, and the Nationals have demonstrated that they’re good to play for after all. After spending the winter mostly getting turned down, the Nationals have locked up one shiny prize.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
A semi-reasonable contract from a Boras client? It makes me very suspicious. What does Boras know that the Nats and us don’t know?
Boras is probably thinking:
(a) Strasburg’s injury risk is scary.
(b) His value will never be higher than it is right now.
(c) Making the 2017 FA class even weaker will create even more salary inflation before Harper becomes a free agent in 2019.
I don’t think this deal provides value for the Nationals. I think it’s too likely that Strasburg is injured/useless for 3-4 years of this contract.
This really does come as a surprise. A Boras client who is a few months away from free agency and clearly going to be in a class by himself forgoing free agency to sign an extension? This has to be unprecedented. And frankly… a little suspicious.
What would he have gotten on the open market? 30M AAV? He’s pitching some of the best games of his life in a contract year. I wonder if he himself fears another injury before the end of the season.
I don’t see this ending well for the Nationals (at least, not until I know the details of the options). Seems like a steep price for a guy who may be best used in the future as a closer or other lowered innings role.
To me this is way pessimistic about Strasburg’s injury potential – the contract starts with his age-28 season, so it’s not like he will be decrepit and washed-up at the end of the deal without injury assistance. (When the contract ends, Strasburg will be the exact current age of Adam Wainwright, a couple months older than the current age of James Shields.)
There’s always a chance his arm blows up and he goes Brandon Webb, but I think him being a decent 2-WAR pitcher at age 34, with a couple of very solid years under his belt, is higher.
30 MM is a lot for a guy who, depending on who you ask, has never lived up to his ace potential. He’s a DIPS underperformer with TJ in his past. I would totally not be surprised if he goes on to throw a couple 7-win seasons up there, but the fact he has never done that is a valid reason to knock him off the highest tier of pitchers, where Greinke and Price were last year.
Boras is setting a higher bar for his elite starters with Tommy John pipeline, like Matt Harvey. Strasburg may not have squeezed every dollar but he got plenty close enough, with the opt-outs included.
The two largest pitcher contracts this winter are going to relievers. Crazy.
Wonder if there was a handshake deal to give the Nats first bite at the apple at truly negotiating with Harper when the time comes. They have absolutely given Boras clients preferential treatment.
I’m curious to see the inevitable contract analysis when it’s posted on this site. I expect that given his position as the undisputed #1 free agent starter, that he would have received well more that 7/175 from someone.
I wonder how much goodwill engendered by the 2012 shutdown played into this. The Nats took a lot of crap for sitting him down in the playoffs, but showing their guy that his future career actually matters to them might have saved them a lot of money today.
I’m not aware of any good evidence that scarcity of assets in a particular offseason lead to crazy inflation. Pitchers seemed to be getting crazy contracts this offseason, and this was one of the most abundant pitching markets in quite a while.