UPDATE: Strasburg gets fairly minor innings-based incentives, and he has what’s termed a “rolling opt-out” after years three and four. OK!

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There was a lot of chatter last offseason about next offseason, and about how dreary it looked. There was a line of thought that teams were happy to throw money around because they didn’t want to have to pick through next year’s free-agent crop. The options were shaping up to be thin behind Stephen Strasburg. The options are thinner now.

Chelsea Janes broke the news that Strasburg has re-signed with the Nationals long-term. Jon Heyman puts the contract at $175 million over seven years, probably with deferrals and opt-outs. You remember how this stuff works — deferrals reduce the present-day value of the deal, but opt-outs work in the other direction. Opt-outs remain en vogue, while deferrals remain particularly en vogue with the Nationals. Nothing too surprising about the details of the contract. More surprising is the existence of the contract in the first place.

Strasburg is represented by Scott Boras, and he was five months from free agency. Boras clients have skipped free agency because of an extension before, but this one wasn’t expected, not with Strasburg so obviously the best free-agent pitcher due up. Look at this list. LOOK AT IT. With Strasburg off the board, what’s best of what’s left? Rich Hill? Potentially James Shields? Potentially Scott Kazmir? Nothing against any of those pitchers, but they don’t blend Strasburg’s talent and intrigue. Even if Strasburg isn’t officially an ace yet, he was going to be the closest thing. Now he’s just going to keep the same uniform.

Which is not to suggest that Strasburg and Boras aren’t doing well here. How much more could Strasburg really get? David Price got $217 million over seven years, with one opt-out, but Price has the better history, with no scar. That ligament replacement is meaningful, because there’s concern ligaments are vulnerable to re-busting, which makes Strasburg appear more of a risk. By no means should Strasburg be considered a ticking time bomb. He’ll either get hurt again or he won’t, and no one knows the answer. The Nationals know Strasburg pretty well. I think it’s safe to say there’s some additional risk, of either injury or under-performance, and when you factor that in, this is a hell of a deal. Strasburg’s talent + perfect health might = $250 million. Today we see Strasburg’s talent + Strasburg’s history = $175 million.

Over the past three calendar years, out of every starter with at least 300 innings, Strasburg ranks 17th in adjusted ERA, 10th in adjusted FIP, and fourth in adjusted xFIP. At present, for the first time in his career, Strasburg has four pitches he’s comfortable throwing at least a tenth of the time, and that could be a sign of his evolving toward someone better able to generate weak contact. And maybe that’s not the case, I don’t know, because Strasburg sure does throw a lot of innings against the Braves, but there’s no doubting his ability to strike batters out, and walks have never been a problem. This year, there are some other encouraging signs. Strasburg isn’t declining, is the point.

Perhaps his history means he’ll decline soon. Perhaps his history means he’ll get hurt again soon. We still don’t actually know that much about how guys bounce back from UCL replacement, but based just on the Strasburg example to this point, he’s got bullets left in him. The Nationals are counting on his having thousands. This is bad news for would-be spenders, and would-be buyers of Sonny Gray, but now Strasburg has cashed in, and the Nationals have demonstrated that they’re good to play for after all. After spending the winter mostly getting turned down, the Nationals have locked up one shiny prize.