On this date a year ago, the Dodgers traded pitcher Zach Lee for non-pitcher Chris Taylor. Since then, Lee has been claimed off waivers, and he’s thrown eight big-league innings, with eight walks. Taylor, meanwhile, didn’t impress in the majors in 2016, but he made some offseason changes and currently ranks third among Dodgers position players in 2017 WAR, behind only Justin Turner and Corey Seager. Cody Bellinger has been very good, yes? He’s at 1.8 WAR, with a 144 wRC+. Taylor’s at 1.9 WAR, with a 140 wRC+. He’s appeared at second base, shortstop, third base, left field, and center field.

I’m not here to give Taylor an exhaustive look. I’m not going to do any video breakdowns. This is pure statistics. Let’s begin with a table featuring one statistic. For every hitter who’s batted at least 150 times this season, I calculated the difference between their in-zone swing rates and their out-of-zone swing rates. There have been more than 250 such hitters. A leaderboard:

That’s Chris Taylor in first place. That’s Chris Taylor in first place in a table that also has Joey Votto in it. Taylor, to this point, has been making many of the right swing decisions, being aggressive within the zone while laying off garbage outside of it. That’s not everything about being a good hitter, but you couldn’t ask for a better foundation. Taylor has made himself difficult to pitch to.

Now to expand. This is going to be another somewhat experimental table, a form of analysis I’ve done a few times before. I just finished writing an article for ESPN, in which I performed this same analysis for Cody Bellinger. I identified, for hitters, four core traits — discipline, contact, exit velocity, and launch angle. I gathered data for every hitter going back to 2015, when Statcast was introduced, and I looked for the closest comps to 2017 Chris Taylor. There were no extremely close comps. But among the comps that were there, one comp was far stronger, far closer than the others. The name and the stats:

For the new Chris Taylor, at the plate, easily the closest comp has been recent George Springer. They’re close up there in all four categories, and while Springer has shown the slightly better peak strength, Taylor has made more consistent contact. So, when you wonder how Taylor’s wRC+ might regress, you might decide to be strongly anchored to Springer’s 130. Perhaps that’s still too high, I don’t know, but Taylor has been showing legitimate offensive skills, and his defensive versatility is an obvious plus. Pitchers will have time to try to figure this out, but Taylor hasn’t given an inch.

Without question, Bellinger has come in handy for the Dodgers at just the right time. But Taylor, too, has been crucial to the Dodgers’ early success, and this is just another testament to the organization’s depth. Taylor always seemed like someone who could play a little bit. Now he’s resembling a critical component of the Astros’ organizational core.

Update: And, to pile on, earlier today, the Padres designated Zach Lee for assignment.

A lot of things have gone right for the Yankees this year. This is not one of those things.

Yankees announce Gleyber Torres needs Tommy John surgery on his left elbow

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 19, 2017

The Yankees top prospect was running a 144 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in Triple-A, and was being groomed to replace Chase Headley as the team’s third baseman (who has an 86 wRc+) in the not-too-distant future. He also would have provided depth at the middle infield spots, and given the team another dynamic young player for the stretch run.

The UCL isn’t as important for hitters as it is for pitchers, but even while this injury is to his non-throwing arm, this will still knock Torres out for the remainder of the 2017 season. The Yankees press release notes that he’s expected to be ready for the start of spring training next year.

With Torres out of the picture, the Yankees are probably going to have to turn to the trade market now if they want to upgrade over Headley for the second half. Which is particularly interesting, because the Red Sox might also be looking for a third baseman over the next six weeks, and with J.J. Hardy on the shelf, it’s possible the Orioles could look for a 3B, with Manny Machado shifting over to shortstop. That would leave three A.L. East teams potentially trying to outbid each other for the same crop of mediocre veteran options.

Regardless of what the Yankees do at third base, this is bad news for Torres, who was on the verge of being a big leaguer. Hopefully he recovers in full and this doesn’t have a detrimental effect on his career, which still looks quite promising.

Today, ESPN published something pretty remarkable; an in-depth look at what it is like for Latinos in the Major Leagues. They are calling this project the Béisbol Experience.

They interviewed over 50 players for the story, breaking down their comments into various categories, giving us a better look at who these people are as people. Given the language barriers that often exist between these players and many of their fans, this is a look into areas those of us who don’t speak Spanish often don’t see and regularly don’t understand.

A few of my favorite quotes from the series.

“I went almost two years without seeing my family. Sometimes I talked to [them] and they cried. You have to fight twice as hard — fight to succeed for you, for your family and fight mentally because you miss your family and you want them close. Sometimes it takes you out of the game.” — ADEINY HECHAVARRÍA

“I went down to a gas station to buy a phone card for calling my family. I didn’t know how to say ‘phone card.’ The lady asked me, ‘How can I help you?’ and I didn’t know what to say. It was so hard. I went to the gas station alone because I didn’t want anyone laughing at me. I waited until no one was left but myself and the cashier.” — JEURYS FAMILIA

“I remember once we were in the elevator at the All-Star Game and a woman was talking to Vladimir Guerrero in English. She said, ‘Hey, you don’t speak much English,’ and Vlad said to her, ‘I speak English with my bat.'” — ALBERT PUJOLS

“Respect [your opponents] so that they respect you. But passion should not be confused with a lack of respect.” — MIGUEL MONTERO

Really, the entire thing is worth your time. Go read it.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Breiling Eusebio, LHP, Colorado (Profile)
Level: Short Season  Age: 20   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 7 K

Notes
It’s been a strong 2017 affiliate debut for Eusebio, who looked quite good throughout extended spring training, his fastball often sitting 90-94 with some tail. His low-70s curveball improved as we inched closer to the summer and it, too, was missing bats as June arrived and is currently average, flashing above. Eusebio has trouble timing his delivery, which can negatively impact his command, but he’s deceptive, throws hard for a lefty starting-pitching prospect, and has breaking-ball feel. Very much a prospect.

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The College World Series begins this weekend, with two games on both Saturday and Sunday. The eight participating teams include Oregon State, Texas A&M, Cal State Fullerton, Louisville, Florida State, TCU, LSU and Florida. A total of 57 players from these schools were drafted by Major League teams this week, including four who went in the first round.

The table below includes vital information about the players drafted who will be competing in this year’s College World Series, including Eric Longenhagen’s top-100 rank and FV grades (click through for individual tool grades and scouting reports) and my KATOH projections.

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So, I already had a post published today that talks about the struggling Rich Hill. Here it is! That includes just about everything I have to say. There’s one fact, though, that I wish I’d slid in, but it eluded my notice. I only stumbled upon it while talking about Hill this morning on Effectively Wild. Let’s stop beating around the bush.

Rich Hill is all about the curveball, right? Throws it all the time. Or, at least, throws it close enough to half of the time. Between 2015 and 2016, when Hill re-emerged, he had baseball’s third-highest curveball rate. No one didn’t know about that, and, of course, the curveball rated well, in terms of being an effective pitch. You are probably aware of our pitch-type run values. Between those two seasons, Hill had baseball’s fifth-most valuable curveball, by raw value. Focusing on all the pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, and then converting that curveball value to a rate stat, Hill ranked in third place. Nothing here is surprising. Hill threw the curveball a lot because the curveball was good. It’s a big part of what allowed him to occasionally resemble an ace.

Turn now to 2017. Hill has thrown 37% curveballs. That’s down, but it’s still very high. Hill has still been throwing plenty of curves. And yet, let’s look at the pitch-type run values again. Here are baseball’s least-valuable curves to this point:

Rich Hill: last place. Last place, even, by a couple of runs. The run values are by no means perfect measurements, but they do generally point you in the right directions — good pitches tend to get good values, and bad pitches tend to get bad ones. Rich Hill’s curveball has been horribly unsuccessful, the very most unsuccessful, after starring as a nearly unparalleled weapon. Hill won’t be right until his curveball is right. Said curveball has too often been wrong.

This doesn’t so much change the analysis. It’s still a problem of location, which is still a problem of either injury or mechanics. That’s what the Dodgers have to figure out, and these numbers don’t really help to shed light on what’s going on. The Dodgers already knew that something was awry. But still, this manages to tell a heck of a story. Rich Hill’s world-beating breaking ball has completely abandoned him. You could say that life has really thrown Rich Hill a curveball. Do not say that, though. It’s stupid.

If you’re reading this post on FanGraphs, it’s probably safe to assume that you enjoy participating in baseball discussions, even the nerdy variety. And if you enjoy nerdy baseball discussions, the Saber Seminar is your dream weekend.

Officially titled Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball, the conference is the best event of the year for learning about what is happening in baseball research and development right now, as well as interacting with many of the people on the leading edge of baseball analysis. I’ve been attending for each of the last four years, and it’s a can’t-miss part of my annual calendar.

And this year is shaping up to be even better than most years. With the White Sox in town, GM Rick Hahn will be speaking, and while front office personnel can be somewhat boring, Hahn is one of the exceptions; we’ve had him speak at prior FanGraphs events, and he’s generally the funniest person in the room. Additionally, Yankees AGM Jean Afterman will also be speaking, and you know the Red Sox front office will be well represented as always, with pitching coordinator Brian Bannister already on the confirmed list.

Toss in a bunch of folks with advanced degrees in about every field you can imagine, and this conference is loaded with experts in their fields, ranging from the medical side to physics and beyond. Alan Nathan’s talks are always one of the most informative presentations, and given the ongoing discussion about whether the ball is a factor in MLB’s home run surge, I’m pretty sure you’re going to want to hear what he has to say this year as well.

And this year, we’re bringing most of the FanGraphs crew to Boston as well. Eno Sarris, Jeff Sullivan, and Travis Sawchik will all be making their debuts at the conference, and I’ll be presenting this year as well. We’re looking forward to helping make this the best Saber Seminar yet, despite the high bar past conferences have set.

The event takes place at Boston University on August 5th and 6th, and while we’re still seven weeks out, you’ll definitely want to get your tickets sooner than later. Early admission pricing ($140 per ticket) is in effect through June 22nd, after which the price will rise to $185 through July 15th. After July 15th, the price will go up to $225 per ticket, so you’ll save a lot of money by purchasing them now.

If you’re a student, the Saber Seminar is the best deal of your life, as early student admission is just $65 per ticket. That is a spectacular price for a conference of this quality.

And, as always, the entire event is put on to raise money for charity. This year, The Angioma Alliance will receive 100% of the proceeds raised to help in their fight against brain tumors. All the speakers donate their time and we pay our own cost of travel and lodging to help put on this great event. So the cost of admission will go directly to helping The Angioma Alliance support patients and families dealing with these issues.

Come to Boston the first weekend in August and hang out with us as we talk baseball and raise money for a great cause. I hope to see you there.

With Josh Reddick sidelined by a concussion, the Astros summoned 23-year-old center fielder Derek Fisher to the big leagues yesterday. The early returns are good: in his debut, Fisher went 2-for-3 with a homer and two walks.

Fisher had more than earned this opportunity, slashing .335/.401/.608 at Triple-A this year. A power-speed threat, Fisher eclipsed 20 homers and 20 steals in both 2015 and 2016, and Eric Longenhagen gave him raw power and speed grades of 60 and 70, respectively. Fisher had a bit of a strikeout problem in the past, but has managed to slice his strikeout rate from 27% last year to 19% this year without sacrificing any of his power.

KATOH loves Fisher, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given his excellent performance this year. I have him projected for 8.1 WAR over his first six seasons by stats-only KATOH and 6.3 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates Eric Longenhagen’s relatively modest 45 FV grade. Those projections make him the 18th- and 48th-best prospect in baseball, respectively.

To put some faces to Fisher’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the toolsy center fielder. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Fisher’s Double-A and Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

It’s not immediately clear how, or how often, Houston will work Fisher into their lineup once Reddick is healthy. But Houston would perhaps benefit from shifting some of Nori Aoki’s at-bats to Fisher, giving them an outfield of Fisher, Reddick and George Springer. Regardless, Fisher’s rare combination of power, speed, and contact ability makes his future look incredibly bright. And he made it clear with his 2017 performance that he has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.

Over the last couple of years, the massive home-run spike that began in the second half of 2015 has been the biggest story in baseball. Jeff just noted the other day that home runs are once again trending up quickly, even relative to the new recent norms, and the home-run era is showing no signs of leveling off.

In trying to find an explanation for the sudden and massive increase in home runs, the ball has always seemed like the most reasonable explanation. No one has done more work on whether the ball is at the center of the home-run spike than Ben Lindbergh, who did a deep dive on the issue at FiveThirtyEight last summer, then gotaccess to some results of MLB’s internal study on the issue a month ago, putting something of a damper on the ball as the culprit.

Today, though, Ben is back with a new piece, and based on some research commissioned by Mitchel Lichtman, there again appears to be some evidence that the ball has changed the last few years.

The newer balls have higher CORs and lower circumferences and seam heights, which would be estimated to add an average of 7.1 feet to their distance, equivalent to the effect we would expect to stem from a 1.43 mph difference in exit speed. Although those differences don’t sound enormous, Nathan has noted that “a tiny change in exit speed can lead to much larger changes in the number of home runs.” Last July, he calculated that an exit-speed increase of 1.5 mph would be sufficient to explain the rise in home runs to that point, which means that the 1.43 mph effective difference that Lichtman’s analysis uncovered could comport almost exactly with the initial increase in home runs. Lichtman calculates that a COR increase of this size, in this sample, falls 2.6 standard deviations from the mean, which means that it’s extremely unlikely to have happened by chance.

Alan Nathan, the foremost expert on baseball physics out there, did offer a response on Twitter that this is still not an open-and-shut case.

But with nearly every other reasonable cause for the spike in home runs, and the speed at which things changed after 2015, it’s still difficult to reconcile current home-run levels with anything besides some change in the ball. Ben and MGL’s data provides a bit more evidence that the ball is maybe at least part of the explanation. I definitely encourage you to read their entire piece, as it’s some of the best baseball research done in the public sphere.

The Pitch Talks tour is making its Pittsburgh stop Thursday night at Club Cafe at 56 S 12th St., located on Pittsburgh’s south side.

I will be on the 8 p.m. baseball panel along with Pirates broadcast voice Joe Block, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Pirates beat writer Stephen Nesbitt, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Pirates beat writer Rob Biertempfel, and former Baseball Prospectus editor and present national writer John Perrotto. The club opens its doors at 5 p.m.

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