Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

JoJo Romero, LHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 29   Top 100: NR
Line: 8 IP, 3 BB, 1 H, 8 K

Notes
Drafted out of Yavapai JC (the same school from which Philadelphia drafted Ken Giles) in last year’s fourth round, Romero was a short but athletic lefty with a fringey but late-wiggling fastball and potential plus changeup. He has had command issues and was homer-prone at Yavapai (whose home field is laughably small) which, due to a lack of fastball plane, some scouts thought might carry into pro ball. But Romero’s once below average breaking ball has improved and he’s locating it down and to his glove side with consistency, back-footing it against righties and garnering swings and misses down and away from lefties. He still has a back end starter’s ceiling but now that Romero has added another weapon with which to attack right-handed hitters, it’s a bit easier to see. Below is a clipping of the swings and misses Romero induced from a loaded Charleston lineup, which featured six prospects from our Yankees list, last week.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Ronald Acuna, CF, Atlanta (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: 35
Line: 3-for-4, HR, SB, CS, IBB, 2 R

Notes
After a whifftastic start to the season, Acuna caught fire and hit .352/.410/.611 during his final two weeks at High-A before a promotion to Double-A, where he debuted last night. His peripherals had gone backward at Florida. For example: he recorded a 32% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate there — double and nearly half, respectively, of last year’s rates. Nevertheless, Acuna is entering a strange statistical realm where, even though he’s at a minor-league level at which on-paper performance becomes a more reliable measure of ability, failure will seem relatively meaningless because he’s a 19-year-old at Double-A who has played only 68 career games above Rookie-level ball. He has plus speed, plus raw power, and surprising bat control for such a high-effort swing.

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Yesterday, the Pirates called up 23-year-old utility man Max Moroff from Triple-A. Moroff was off to a hot start — he was slashing .258/.345/.546 — but to most this as a rather mundane transaction. It piqued my interest, however, because Moroff cracked the the All-KATOH team in the preseason thanks to his stellar minor league performance in spite of his lack of prospect pedigree.

Moroff spent last season at the Triple-A level, where he slashed .230/.367/.349 with a concerning 25% strikeout rate and an impressive 17% walk rate. He has something of a three true outcomes profile, which is somewhat uncommon for a middle infielder. His offensive numbers didn’t really drive KATOH’s optimism, however. Rather, it liked that he played premium defensive positions and has played them relatively well as a 22- and 23-year-old in the upper levels.

Fast forward a month into 2017, and Moroff has started to hit too. His strikeout and walk rates have both ticked in the wrong direction, but he’s added power to the mix. He belted eight homers in his first 24 games, which already ties his career high. The power has seemingly come out of nowhere, although erstwhile lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel did say he had “feel for the game and a little pop, but he has trouble getting to it in games” a couple of years ago.

Max Moroff suddenly looks like a 23-year-old, Triple-A shortstop with power and decent speed. As a result, my KATOH system projects Moroff for 6.6 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 4.4 WAR by KATOH+, which integrates his pessimistic prospect rank from Eric Longenhagen. Both are up a couple of ticks from the preseason. My model saw him as a no-doubt top-100 prospect over the winter, and he’s only improved his stock since. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jordan Humphreys, RHP, New York (NL) (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 9 K

Notes
Chris Mitchell’s KATOH thought highly of Humphreys among the ‘sleeper‘ prospects (basically anyone that wasn’t a 40 FV or better on our organizational audits), ranking second among sleeper right-handed pitchers. Humphreys, an 18th rounder in 2015, has struck out 49 in 38.2 IP and walked just 6 hitters by locating his above average changeup and running fastball in the 88-92 range. His curveball (which missed some bats yesterday) is fringey but it’s thrown for strikes, a South Atlantic League delicacy. The stuff profiles at the back of a rotation. Humphreys is a physically mature 6-foot-2, 225 pounds so there’s not much body-based projection on the fastball, but some scouts think the arm action is promising in that regard.

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It’s not just the White Sox who have been an early AL Central surprise. There are also the Twins, who, at 15-14, stand just a game and a half behind the Indians. Now, the Twins are not as good as the Indians. For all I know, the Twins might not be as good as the White Sox. You don’t want to overreact too much to a season’s first five weeks. But you might at least want to understand how the Twins have gotten here. One part of the answer: a much-improved defensive unit.

Last season, by Defensive Runs Saved, the Twins ranked 28th in baseball. By Ultimate Zone Rating, they again ranked 28th, giving them an average rank of…28. This season, by DRS, the Twins rank third in baseball. By UZR, they rank fifth, giving them an average rank of 4. That’s an average rank improvement of 24 places.

Here is how every team has moved so far, according to the same method.

There are, obviously, other teams who have played better defense. And there are other teams who have played worse defense. Here’s just another area where the Blue Jays underwhelm. But no one’s moved quite like the Twins have. This is just an InstaGraphs post, so I’m not going to dig in too deep; the Twins have gotten better at catcher, shortstop, and in the outfield, in particular. By pitching WAR last year, the Twins ranked 28th. This year they rank 27th. By hard-hit rate last year, Twins pitchers ranked second-worst. This year they rank second-worst. And yet by BABIP allowed, last year, the Twins ranked second-worst. This year they rank 10th-best. It’s nothing amazing, but the Twins have been able to prevent some hits. That’s something they struggled to do a season ago. The Twins haven’t ridden some complete fluke to an above-.500 record.

Incidentally, I know this isn’t about the Cubs, but as you’ll recall, last year the Cubs set a team BABIP record. This year their BABIP allowed is tied for 14th. Okay! I don’t have anything for that quite yet.

The Minnesota Twins have a defense. The Minnesota Twins have an offense. We’ll see about the pitching staff. We’ll see about Jose Berrios. You can squint and see something interesting in development here.

There is a pitcher named Wandy Peralta. You’re familiar with the name Wandy, and you’re familiar with the name Peralta, but chances are you aren’t familiar with a name that combines the two. That’s okay. Most of you aren’t Reds fans. This guy pitches for the Reds, and, just to jump ahead to the point — one thing that’s sexy that pitchers do is miss bats. Another thing that’s sexy that pitchers do is work fast. The two generally don’t go hand in hand. There’s a variety of reasons for that. Anyway, this year, 342 pitchers have thrown at least 10 innings. Here are all of them.

On the x-axis: pace

On the y-axis: swinging-strike rate

Highlighted in red: Peralta

Out of those 342 pitchers, Peralta ranks first in pace. And, out of those 342 pitchers, Peralta ranks first in whiff rate. I’m not going to claim that this will continue. I don’t know what Peralta’s going to do from this point forward. But, last year, in a brief cup of coffee, he also worked fast. That just seems to be a part of his game. And the whiffs? Well, Peralta’s gotten better. This is a guy who keeps his fastball in the mid-90s. His preferred secondary pitch had long been a changeup. Now he has a changeup *and* a slider, and a fastball he still throws. Peralta is a reliever who consistently throws three pitches. Think he’s gotten better about locating? Here’s where his pitches have gone.

Peralta wasn’t good in his debut. Missed a lot to his arm side. So far he’s been able to mostly live down. You’d be hard-pressed to find two more different heat maps, and now it’s time for more visuals! Here’s Wandy Peralta throwing a dynamite changeup.

Here’s Wandy Peralta throwing a hilarious slider.

Peralta has thrown 56 sliders. Out of 234 pitchers who have thrown at least 25 sliders, Peralta ranks seventh in swinging-strike rate. Peralta has also thrown 37 changeups. Out of 176 pitchers who have thrown at least 25 changeups, Peralta ranks first in swinging-strike rate. When Peralta’s thrown a slider, it’s gotten a whiff nearly a third of the time. When Peralta’s thrown a changeup, it’s gotten a whiff nearly half of the time. Mid-90s fastball. These pitches. A faster pace than any other pitcher.

When one thinks about the Reds pitching staff, so much focus ends up on Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen. They deserve it! So does Peralta. I loved him before this little InstaGraphs post. You probably love him now, after.

With outfielders Dexter Fowler, Stephen Piscotty and Jose Martinez all out of commission, the Cardinals called up 21-year-old Magneuris Sierra to play center for the time being. Sierra was off to a fine start in High-A this year, hitting .272/.337/.407 through 20 games. But of course, all of that came against pitching that was not one, not two, but three levels below the big leagues.

Sierra’s hitting has never been his calling card, however, as his prosoectdom is centered around his speed and defense. Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen described him as having “Gold Glove-caliber tools in center field” last month and gave both his speed and defense future grades of 70 over the winter. Those tools have translated to on-field performance in the lower levels, as he swiped 31 bags in Low-A last year and clocked in above average in center according to both Clay Davenport’s and Baseball Prospectus’ defensive numbers. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jake Jewell, RHP, Anaheim (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 12   Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 0 ER, 6 K

Notes
Jewell was promoted to Double-A after walking three total hitters in three Cal League starts. He was throwing very hard this spring, 93-96 with natural cut and a bevy of average secondaries (sinker, slider/cutter, sweeping low-80s curveball), all of which are hard. Scouts generally have him projected to the bullpen but Jewell’s repertoire is deep enough to start if he can improve his command. He threw 51 of 73 pitches for strikes on Sunday.

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Ryan McMahon is rebounding well. On the heels of a lackluster 2016 campaign, the Colorado Rockies prospect is slashing a loud .359/.413/.630 in his second go-round with the Hartford Yard Goats. And not only are balls screaming off his bat, he’s essentially halved his strikeout rate. McMahon has fanned just 17 times in 103 plate appearances.

Last year’s Double-A efforts — a .724 OPS and 161 Ks — were an introduction to adversity for the 2013 second-round pick. He came into the year with a history of raking, but he did anything but rake in his initial opportunity with the then-yard-less Goats.

Hand path was part of the problem.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Mike Gerber, OF, Detroit (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 5   Top 100: NR
Line: 4-for-5, 2 2B, 3 R, BB, SB

Notes
A 15th-round pick in 2014 out of an underrated Creighton program, Gerber first garnered national media attention by performing well during the 2015 Fall League. He finished 2016 with 42 games at Double-A Erie and has started well there this season, hitting .300/.364/.450. Gerber has some swing-and-miss and platoon issues (he has a 26% career strikeout rate and so far this year his splits are 34% against lefties, 21% against righties) but has solid-average raw power. He also plays good defense in right field, so even if he never hits lefties, he could still play every day because of the glove. He projects as a low-end regular.

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