It’s that time of year again. Time to gather around adult beverages (drink specials to be determined) and small plates (free thanks to FanGraphs, October, and The Athletic!) and talk baseball with some of your favorite writers. Thursday, July 13th, at 7pm at Local Option in Chicago, we have invited the writers, analysts, and brewers below (and a few more off list) to come and be merry with you in the back of the bar.

This is a 21-and-over event. No tickets required.

See you soon.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jose Siri, OF, Cincinnati (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-5, 3B, HR

Notes
Siri’s slender 6-foot-2 frame contains surprisingly big tools. He’s a plus runner with above-average raw power and arm strength. He also has good bat control, although an aggressive approach at the plate has lead to some strikeout issues throughout his career that could be further exposed at upper levels. He has big upside if he can continue to hit. Much of what scouts are saying about Siri now were being said, verbatim, about Nick Williams two years ago.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Dominic Smith, 1B, New York NL (Profile)
Level: Triple-A Age: 22   Org Rank:  3 Top 100: 73
Line: 3-for-5, 2B, 2 HR
Notes
Most developmental paths are long and winding, but Smith has been robotically effective since his first full pro season. He has made hard, all-fields contact each year, his home parks always tossing his slugging figures around. Even his year-to-year batted-ball profile has been consistent. He’s a high-probability regular with a chance to be a three-plus-win player if the glove scouts see shows up on paper.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jorge Mateo, SS/CF, New York AL (Profile)
Level: Double-A Age: 22   Org Rank:  6 Top 100: 91
Line: 4-for-10, 2 3B, HR

Notes
As the dominoes fell following Gleyber Torres‘ injury, Mateo landed in Trenton. He split time between shortstop and center field down at High-A and the Yankees have the option to continue working him at both spots at Double-A with utility prospect Thairo Estrada on the roster. He struggled to do everything on the offensive end but steal bases in Tampa, failing to do damage anywhere but to his pull side. He’s off to a terrific start in Trenton, though, tallying five walks and three triples in just six games.

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The 2017 All-Star Futures Game will take place on Sunday, July 7th at Marlins Park as part of the All-Star weekend festivities. The rosters for the U.S. and World teams were recently unveiled. Below, one can find up-to-date KATOH and KATOH+ projections for the 50 players who were chosen to participate. WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jacob Nix, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 21   Org Rank: 7   Top 100: HM
Line: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K

Notes
A groin strain sidelined Nix until late May. Since returning, his fastball has been in the mid-90s, touching 97, and his curveball flashes plus. He has an inning-eater’s build (I have a Jon Lieber comp on the body) and throws lots of strikes. He’s rather firmly an overall top-100 prospect.

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Following Miguel Montero’s kerfluffle with Jake Arrieta, the Cubs designated Montero for assignment today. In his place, they called up Victor Caratini from Triple-A. The switch-hitting Caratini had been tearing up PCL pitching this season to the tune of .343/.384/.539. Needless to say, that’s mighty exciting coming from a catcher. Caratini’s offensive profile is built around an encouraging combination of contact and power. At Triple-A this season, he struck out in less than 15% of his plate appearances while posting an ISO just south of .200. The latter was largely due to his 20 doubles. Caratini has also run high walk rates in the past.

KATOH likes Caratini more than most, projecting him for 5.1 WAR over his first six seasons by stats-only KATOH and 3.7 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his prospect ranking. Those marks place him 80th and 100th, respectively, among prospects. Caratini doesn’t even sniff most scouting-based top-100 lists.

To put some faces to Caratini’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Caratini’s Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Chicago NL (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 22   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 R, 7 K

Notes
His delivery is a bit rough (though it’s more efficient than it used to be), but Alzolay has good stuff, sitting in the mid-90s and topping out at 97 with arm-side run. He’ll flash an average changeup and can vary his breaking ball’s shape, at times exhibiting 12-6 movement and showing two-plane wipe at others. He has a chance for a plus-plus fastball an two solid-average secondaries, perhaps a tick above, to go with fringe command.

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FanGraphs now has Pitch Info data available throughout the site. For those unfamiliar with Pitch Info data, it is best known as the pitch-type data which powers much of BrooksBaseball.net.

Pitch Info tabs and tables have replaced all PITCHf/x tabs and tables by default. This includes the leaderboards, player pages, game logs, heat maps, and pitch-type splits. All the previous PITCHf/x data is now hidden by default, but you can un-hide it by going to your profile and checking the “Show PITCHf/x Stats?” checkbox. oth PITCHf/x and Pitch Info data will be continue to be updated on a nightly basis. We expect Pitch Info data from the previous night to be loaded by around 10:30 AM ET.

If you have custom dashboards, leaderboards, or links set up to PITCHf/x data, this change will not impact any of that. All PITCHf/x links and PITCHf/x fields in custom leaderboards will continue to work as they always have. You can even combine PITCHf/x and Pitch Info data in the same custom leaderboard.

One navigation change is that the pitch-type split data has been moved under the splits tab.

And here’s some additional information about the adjustments that Pitch Info makes:

“The Pitch Classifications are manually reviewed by Pitch Info using several parameters of each pitch’s trajectory and double-checked against several other sources, such as video evidence (e.g., pitcher grip and catcher signs) and direct communication with on-field personnel (e.g., pitching coaches, catchers, and the pitchers themselves).”

Because the PITCHf/x dataset provides the details of each pitch’s trajectory, we can slightly alter the default values to align better with reality than what is commonly reported. For example, we slightly shift our reported values back to a release distance of 55′ – which more closely reflects the actual release distance of most pitchers – so that release points are more tightly clustered and velocities are slightly increased. We also provide options to visualize pitch movement with gravity added back into the equation or with the effects of air drag removed.

Yankees second baseman Starlin Castro has landed on the DL after straining his hamstring last night. In a parallel universe, a parallel me is writing this article about Gleyber Torres, whom KATOH+ regarded as the No. 2 prospect in baseball behind Vlad Guerrero Jr. But since Torres’ season recently came to an end, the call-up goes to Tyler Wade, who is an interesting prospect in his own right.

A fifth-round pick out of high school in 2013, Wade put himself on the prospect map when he slashed .280/.343/.353 as a 20-year-old shortstop in High-A. He built upon that with a solid campaign in 2016 and hit an excellent .313/.390/.445 this year. He’s been especially hot of late, slashing .366/.455/.505 with 11 steals over his last 25 games. Wade hasn’t hit for a ton of power in the minors — his career ISO is just .085, though it ticked up to .132 this year — but he does just about everything else offensively, including making contact, drawing walks and stealing bases.

Wade has played shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield spots this year. However, most of his reps have come at short. He hasn’t graded out well at the position by Clay Davenport’s numbers, but given how the defensive spectrum works, it stands to reason that he’d be fine at second base. The fact that he’s remained at shortstop all the way through Triple-A is telling.

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