Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Nick Neidert, RHP, Seattle (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 3  Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 8 K

Notes
Neidert is very advanced and will throw his breaking ball and changeup, both of which are already of big-league quality, in any count. He was 87-91 with his fastball in his final spring-training tune-up start and I wondered how his fastball would play in the Cal League but, at least last night, it didn’t matter. He was part of a combined one hit shutout of Stockton with righties Matt Walker and Lukas Schiradli, both of whom missed bats in the Midwest League last year, slamming the door over the final three innings.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen.

Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 9  Top 100: 93
Line: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 H, 7 K

Notes
Soroka is the most polished strike-thrower of Atlanta’s young arms and has mature competitive poise. Much was made of his aggressive assignment to Double-A, but this was a promising start.

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This is when we’re supposed to hunt for potential trends, right? We can look at the home runs. We can look at the strikeouts. We can look at the walks. We can look at the strike zone. We’re always trying to see where baseball might be going. What’s another potential trend? Baseball has slowed down! Again.

In 2014, the average game lasted about 188 minutes. In 2015, the average game lasted about 181 minutes. The improvement was modest, but still cause for celebration, as the league wanted to increase the pace of play. Unfortunately for them, things slid back some of the way last year, when the average game length bumped up to 185 minutes. And in the early going this year? We’re at an average of 191 minutes. All the gains of 2015 have been erased, and then some, and this isn’t because there has been, say, an unusual number of extra-inning contests. Last year’s average game had 76 plate appearances. This year, the average is…76 plate appearances.

So, what’s going on? Oh, right. Players love doing nothing.

I don’t know if it’s the hitters or the pitchers or what, but the time between pitches has shot up by nearly a second and a half. Pace was already trending up heading into 2015, when baseball passed a few new pace-related rules. Remember the one about staying in the batter’s box? Right, all that. There were short-term gains, but the players have slipped into old habits due to a lack of enforcement. I guess it’s not even old habits. By this measure, the old habits have gotten worse and more exaggerated. An extra second here and there is nothing, but it all adds up, given that hundreds of pitches are thrown for every nine innings.

This isn’t a judgment post. Some people mind that baseball has gotten slower. Some people don’t mind at all. My opinion is my opinion alone, and I would never assume everyone else feels the same way I do. How you feel is how you feel, but the facts right now point to baseball once again slowing down. And if that trend keeps up, I’d think that pitch clocks are an inevitability. Rob Manfred, see, has his opinions, too, but his opinions turn into actions. I just get to sit here and write about them.

The backstory: Over the course of the PITCHf/x era, the major-league strike zone kept getting bigger and bigger. Last year, for the first time, the zone basically stabilized. The commissioner floated the idea of raising the zone’s lower boundary. The union disapproved. In theory, this year’s zone should look familiar. It should look like last year’s zone.

And, you know, it does look like last year’s zone, in that the strike zone never changes that much. Even the dramatic changes are actually subtle changes. But here are two league heat maps, showing called-strike probabilities. One of these reflects the 2016 season, and the other reflects 2017 so far.

Changes! Somewhat substantial changes. Some of them actually a little too substantial. One is reminded that the tracking systems have changed this year, and that affects more than just velocity readings. All the data from before 2017 came from PITCHf/x. Now we’ve got Trackman data instead. They might report slightly different pitch locations, which could explain the heat maps above. So as a proxy, how about something else? How about something as simple as…strike rate?

Two years ago, 64% of all pitches were strikes. So far this year, that’s down to 63%, and while a change of one percentage point isn’t going to render the game unrecognizable, you can see the clear trend leading up into 2015. Strikes were on the rise. Now they’ve gone in the other direction, and this year’s early (EARLY!) rate is right in between where the league was in 2010 and 2011. It doesn’t necessarily directly reflect a change to the strike zone, but it’s suggestive. Walks happen to be up, and Dave wrote about that earlier Monday.

For reasons unbeknownst to me, Baseball-Reference reports numbers that are even more striking. According to them, over the past three years, strike rate has slipped from 64.3% to 63.8% to 62.7%. Swing rate is also a little down. The zone could be smaller. The pitchers could just be throwing more pitches out of the zone. Could easily be both. You can’t expect any actual exhaustive research a week into the regular season.

Here’s where we are: Walks are up, and unsurprisingly, related to that, strikes are down. We’re not used to seeing strike rate going down! This is absolutely something to watch, because even as early as it is, there have still been plenty of games. Something could be happening. Recent trends could be turning around.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen.

Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Oakland (Profile)
Level: High-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 6
Line: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K

Notes
Jefferies dealt with a shoulder injury last year at Cal and was 91-93 with a good changeup and fringey mid-80s slider in the AZL after he signed. This spring he was 92-95 with command, the same potential impact changeup, and an average curveball with more two-plane tilt than the slider had last year.

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Position: Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Operations Data Engineer

Location: St. Petersburg, Fla.

Description:
The Tampa Bay Rays are a professional baseball team looking for a Data Engineer to join our Baseball Operations team. This position will be responsible for ensuring that our database meets the highest standards of accuracy and integrity. This includes designing and implementing data import procedures, performing quality assurance checks, and finding and fixing data errors. This person will work closely with our Baseball Research & Development and Baseball Systems groups. All offers contingent on satisfactory background check.

Responsibilities:

• Strong experience with SQL (particularly Microsoft SQL Server and SQL Server Integration Services (SSIS)).
• Detail oriented.
• Knowledge of basic probability and statistics.
• Strong communication skills.
• Minimum two years of experience in similar role.
• Willing to relocate to the St. Petersburg, Fla., area.
• Willing to work some nights and weekends during baseball season.

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Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball Data Architect

Location: Boston
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A few weeks ago Zach Buchanan of The Cincinnati Enquirer wrote a column titled “Can Michael Lorenzen be a two-way player?” It’s an intriguing question, and not an entirely far-fetched idea. The 25-year-old Reds right-hander was both a pitcher and a center fielder at Cal State Fullerton. Per Buchanan’s article, he could “kind of see it come to fruition” in the future.

For Christian Bethancourt, the future is now. As Eno Sarris shared yesterday in his look at two-way possibilities, the Padres are planning to use the strong-armed backstop both behind the plate and out of the bullpen.

Don’t count Bobby Dalbec among those looking to follow in Bethancourt’s footsteps. His resume suggests he could — Dalbec dominated on the mound in last year’s College World Series — but Boston drafted him as a third baseman, which is where he wants to stay. Our own Eric Longenhagen feels he has a future there, as Dalbec came in at No. 5 on that Red Sox’ top-prospect list.

When I talked to him this spring, the 21-year-old University of Arizona product told me he doesn’t particularly like pitching, and that he did it primarily because the Wildcats wanted him to play both ways. No longer having to perform double duty “took a big weight off [his] shoulders.”

He cited preparation as the biggest challenge.

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The other day, I got a text from a baseball friend, asking if the Padres and Dodgers were getting prepped for the most lopsided opening-day matchup in baseball history. I didn’t and don’t have any good way to respond, since the necessary calculations would be way over my head, but it’s at least fun to poke around here to show just how awful this really looks. The Padres are bad, and the Dodgers are good. To make matters worse, the opening-day Padres get Jhoulys Chacin, and the opening-day Dodgers get Clayton Kershaw. One of the best teams in baseball, at home, against one of the worst teams in baseball, and the best team gets to use the best starting pitcher on the planet. Fantastic!

You might know that we calculate game odds, based on matchups, lineups, and location. When the Nationals hosted the Marlins earlier today, we put the Nationals’ pregame odds of winning at 63.2%. When the Mets hosted the Braves, we put the Mets’ pregame odds of winning at 65.2%. Here is where the Dodgers started off:

75.6%. Before anything had happened, we gave the Dodgers a 75.6% chance of winning. You don’t need the numbers to tell you the Padres were already up against it coming in, but for reference, all of last season, there were just seven games with the favorite at at least 75%. The most lopsided matchup of all had the favorite at 77.8%. Of the seven games in this table, four were Kershaw starts.

You see that the favorite won all of those games. This Dodgers-Padres showdown would’ve ranked as the seventh-most lopsided game of last year. No one’s going to be favored against Kershaw and the Dodgers, but at least in theory, on opening day, you get to put your best foot forward. The Padres’ best foot involves Jhoulys Chacin. The next game, at least, should look a lot better.

I’ll point out that last year’s biggest upset had the Phillies overcoming pregame odds of 74.4% in the Pirates’ favor. One day in, and the Padres have a shot to pull off a bigger upset than anything we saw all of 2016. How have things been going since I started this entry, when the teams were knotted up 1-1?

I see.

It’s opening day, and things can be weird, so let’s quickly check some Brewers and Rockies readings. Junior Guerra‘s fastball today averaged a little over 92. Last year, it averaged a little over 93. Tommy Milone‘s fastball today averaged a little over 88. Last year, it averaged a little under 88. Nothing crazy yet. Scott Oberg‘s average fastball matched up well with last year’s mark. Jon Gray’s average fastball seems up a few hairs from last year. There’s adrenaline in the first game of the season. I think we’re okay to proceed.

Let’s proceed!

That’s a slider. If I could just-

But could-

There’s no w-

Jon Gray threw a very good slider last season. According to the run values we have on the leaderboards, out of all starting pitchers, Gray’s slider ranked 14th-best, at 13.9 runs above average. He was in between Carlos Rodon and CC Sabathia. Here are the fastest average sliders thrown by starters:

Hey look, it’s Gray! Gray is no stranger to having velocity. He pumps his fastball into the mid-90s with regularity. The slider, last year, was something. On Monday, according to Gameday, it averaged 90.9 miles per hour. That’s right where 2016 Syndergaard sat. Granted, Syndergaard also pitched Monday, and this time his slider averaged 91.6. No pitcher should make a habit of trying to chase Noah Syndergaard, because that’s a competition you’re going to lose, but Gray was just flinging Syndergaard-esque breaking balls in between heaters, and this would take some getting used to. Unsurprisingly, going up against the Brewers, Gray was completely dominant.

And then things came off the rails in the fifth and Gray wound up with an 11.25 ERA. Surprise! It’s baseball! This is what you missed about baseball. Or what you didn’t miss at all, even just a little bit.