Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jose De Leon, RHP, Tampa Bay (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: 44
Line: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Notes
Yesterday, De Leon made his second start since coming off the disabled list with forearm soreness. He threw 69 pitches over five innings, an improvement from his inefficient 61-pitch, three-inning appearance on the 11th of May. De Leon also dealt with back tightness during the spring. A changeup/command artist, De Leon could help a Rays rotation currently delving into the bullpen for help due to Blake Snell’s growing pains, but the club has a glut of options on the 40-man and Brent Honeywell (who isn’t on it) is shoving at Triple-A.

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Imagine the average Yasiel Puig plate appearance. What does it look like to you? One thing it might look like is Puig flailing at a bunch of low-away sliders. Now, I don’t actually know what’s in your head. I don’t know how you think about Puig. But just in case you think he is extremely vulnerable to breaking stuff, do I have news for you!

I have prepared two plots, showing the entirety of Puig’s major-league career. Here is a rolling-average plot of Puig’s rate of fastballs seen:

Great! He’s gone through some low-fastball phases before. Now he’s higher than ever. I should tell you that, for context, baseball-wide fastball rates are going *down*. So, the average hitter is seeing fewer fastballs than ever before. Puig is seeing more fastballs than ever before. All right, that’s part of it. Time to fold in run values. Here’s the same idea, where I’ve just summed up Puig’s fastball run values above or below average over rolling 30-game stretches.

It shouldn’t surprise you to see how cyclical things are. Underneath, that’s how baseball tends to work — something gets the job done until it doesn’t, at which point adjustments are made, and then more adjustments are made, and on and on. Puig has gone through troughs, followed by peaks, but Puig has been at another low. How low? So far, there are 208 hitters this season who have batted at least 100 times. Puig owns baseball’s highest fastball rate, at 68%. Last year, he was at 60%. And while this has been going on, Puig is sitting on baseball’s third-worst fastball run value, at -8.9 runs. Only Dansby Swanson and Alcides Escobar have been worse. Pitch-type run values, of course, are prone to noise in either direction, but both these factors are fairly convincing together. Puig’s seeing more fastballs because he’s doing less to them.

Here are Puig’s fastball run values by season, expressed as runs above or below average per 100 fastballs:

• 2013: +1.7 runs per 100 fastballs
• 2014: +1.4
• 2015: +1.0
• 2016: -0.5
• 2017: -2.4

So far this season, Puig has been pretty good against both sliders and changeups. It’s almost as if he’s focused too hard on addressing a weakness, such that now he’s just behind faster pitches. It’s something to work on, and with Puig, it’s just another adjustment to attempt. There’s always something, but I guess you could say that’s true for anybody.

It could be misstating things to assert that Puig’s on a high-fastball diet. Pitchers, certainly, are giving him a steady diet of fastballs. Yet relatively few of them are being consumed. So, the headline could probably stand to be fixed. Give me a few seconds to get on that.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Chuckie Robinson, C, Houston (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 1-for-2, HR, 2 BB

Notes
A 21st rounder out of Southern Miss, Robinson has big pull power and takes full-effort, uppercut swings. He’s homered in two consecutive games (his first two of the season) and is now up to .282/.346/.479 on the year. He’s significantly improved his conditioning since high school and improved his defensive mobility, though he’s still listed at 5-foot-11, 225 pounds. Robinson is now a passable receiver with above-average pure arm strength that plays down on throws to second base because he’s still a bit slow to exit his crouch. Some are apprehensive about the sustainability of Robinson’s Bunyanesque approach to hitting, but he’s got louder tools and a better chance to reach the majors than the typical 21st-round pick. He profiles as a third catcher.

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Let’s do some quick review! One stat we have on our pages shows up as IFFB%. This measures the rate of infield pop-ups per fly ball hit. You know this measure — this is the one where Joey Votto is a freak.

Another stat we have on our pages shows up as HR/FB. This measures the rate of home runs per fly ball hit. You also know this measure — this is the one where Aaron Judge is a freak. (And, seemingly, everybody else.)

Both of these numbers make sense to look at for individuals, and for teams. Let’s think about teams. In fact, let’s think about one specific team, that being the Milwaukee Brewers. This season, the Brewers have hit pop-ups on 6.2% of their fly balls. That’s the lowest rate for any team. Also, this season, the Brewers have hit home runs on 20.6% of their fly balls. That’s the highest rate for any team. The Brewers currently rank as the best by each measure. That means they rank No. 1.

We have this batted-ball data going back to 2002, which gives us 15 full individual seasons, and one partial one. Combining everything, here is a table of the 10 best offensive teams by average rank in these two stats.

In short, the Brewers are trying to be the first team in a decade and a half or so to be better than anyone else in terms of pop-ups and homers. The 2004 Yankees came tantalizingly close to dual No. 1s, but they were narrowly edged out in pop-ups by the Tigers. I’m sure the Yankees didn’t mind, and it’s not like this is the end goal of the whole Brewers organization, but this is, overall, a positive reflection of the lineup through to this point. Although they’ve swung and missed, this is how you make the most of fly balls.

As it happens, these Brewers are actually tied with the 2015 Giants for what would be the lowest pop-up rate in the whole window. And no team has previously reached even 17% home runs per fly ball; the Brewers are close to 21%. So, technically, they rank No. 1 in each category this season, and they also rank No. 1 in each category over all 15+ seasons. This is a remarkable partial achievement!

In closing, this year’s team with the worst average rank is the Red Sox, who are 27th by pop-ups and 29th by homers. No team has ever finished last in both categories. The closest was the 2014 Royals, who were worst in homers and second-worst in pop-ups. The 2014 Royals lost the World Series in seven games. Don’t accuse me of overselling.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Greg Harris, RHP, Tampa (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 29   Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 1 BB, 4 H, 2 ER, 11 K

Notes
After seeing Harris last fall, I projected him to the bullpen due to loose command. Other than one bad start on May 4 at Biloxi, however — when he walked four batters — he’s generally avoided issuing free passes, walking just six in 36 innings. Harris throws hard, in the low-to-mid 90s, has an above-average changeup, a viable cutter, and curveball. If he can maintain his upright, stiff-looking delivery and fill the zone, he could pitch in the back of a rotation. He has a 3.26 ERA at Double-A Montgomery.

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Position: TrackMan Data & Operations Intern

Location: Cape Cod

Description:
At TrackMan Baseball we measure ball flight including elements such as: speed, spin and movement of pitched and hit baseballs. We do this using proprietary 3D Doppler radar hardware and software. Every Major League team uses our products and services for player development and evaluation. We also work with collegiate, Japanese and Korean teams, premier amateur baseball organizations, broadcasters and equipment manufacturers.

We are looking for a TrackMan Data & Operations Intern to be our hands and eyes on the ground at Cape Cod Baseball League games during the 2017 summer. The D&O Intern will be out in the field on a daily basis focused primarily on operating the TrackMan system and ensuring data quality measures are effectively in place at the point of capture. You will be an integral piece of ensuring the added TrackMan value to players, coaches, college teams, and Major League teams. This position runs from June 13th – August 13.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

JoJo Romero, LHP, Philadelphia (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 29   Top 100: NR
Line: 8 IP, 3 BB, 1 H, 8 K

Notes
Drafted out of Yavapai JC (the same school from which Philadelphia drafted Ken Giles) in last year’s fourth round, Romero was a short but athletic lefty with a fringey but late-wiggling fastball and potential plus changeup. He has had command issues and was homer-prone at Yavapai (whose home field is laughably small) which, due to a lack of fastball plane, some scouts thought might carry into pro ball. But Romero’s once below average breaking ball has improved and he’s locating it down and to his glove side with consistency, back-footing it against righties and garnering swings and misses down and away from lefties. He still has a back end starter’s ceiling but now that Romero has added another weapon with which to attack right-handed hitters, it’s a bit easier to see. Below is a clipping of the swings and misses Romero induced from a loaded Charleston lineup, which featured six prospects from our Yankees list, last week.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Ronald Acuna, CF, Atlanta (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: 35
Line: 3-for-4, HR, SB, CS, IBB, 2 R

Notes
After a whifftastic start to the season, Acuna caught fire and hit .352/.410/.611 during his final two weeks at High-A before a promotion to Double-A, where he debuted last night. His peripherals had gone backward at Florida. For example: he recorded a 32% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate there — double and nearly half, respectively, of last year’s rates. Nevertheless, Acuna is entering a strange statistical realm where, even though he’s at a minor-league level at which on-paper performance becomes a more reliable measure of ability, failure will seem relatively meaningless because he’s a 19-year-old at Double-A who has played only 68 career games above Rookie-level ball. He has plus speed, plus raw power, and surprising bat control for such a high-effort swing.

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Yesterday, the Pirates called up 23-year-old utility man Max Moroff from Triple-A. Moroff was off to a hot start — he was slashing .258/.345/.546 — but to most this as a rather mundane transaction. It piqued my interest, however, because Moroff cracked the the All-KATOH team in the preseason thanks to his stellar minor league performance in spite of his lack of prospect pedigree.

Moroff spent last season at the Triple-A level, where he slashed .230/.367/.349 with a concerning 25% strikeout rate and an impressive 17% walk rate. He has something of a three true outcomes profile, which is somewhat uncommon for a middle infielder. His offensive numbers didn’t really drive KATOH’s optimism, however. Rather, it liked that he played premium defensive positions and has played them relatively well as a 22- and 23-year-old in the upper levels.

Fast forward a month into 2017, and Moroff has started to hit too. His strikeout and walk rates have both ticked in the wrong direction, but he’s added power to the mix. He belted eight homers in his first 24 games, which already ties his career high. The power has seemingly come out of nowhere, although erstwhile lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel did say he had “feel for the game and a little pop, but he has trouble getting to it in games” a couple of years ago.

Max Moroff suddenly looks like a 23-year-old, Triple-A shortstop with power and decent speed. As a result, my KATOH system projects Moroff for 6.6 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 4.4 WAR by KATOH+, which integrates his pessimistic prospect rank from Eric Longenhagen. Both are up a couple of ticks from the preseason. My model saw him as a no-doubt top-100 prospect over the winter, and he’s only improved his stock since. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jordan Humphreys, RHP, New York (NL) (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 9 K

Notes
Chris Mitchell’s KATOH thought highly of Humphreys among the ‘sleeper‘ prospects (basically anyone that wasn’t a 40 FV or better on our organizational audits), ranking second among sleeper right-handed pitchers. Humphreys, an 18th rounder in 2015, has struck out 49 in 38.2 IP and walked just 6 hitters by locating his above average changeup and running fastball in the 88-92 range. His curveball (which missed some bats yesterday) is fringey but it’s thrown for strikes, a South Atlantic League delicacy. The stuff profiles at the back of a rotation. Humphreys is a physically mature 6-foot-2, 225 pounds so there’s not much body-based projection on the fastball, but some scouts think the arm action is promising in that regard.

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