Position: Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Operations Data Engineer

Location: St. Petersburg, Fla.

Description:
The Tampa Bay Rays are a professional baseball team looking for a Data Engineer to join our Baseball Operations team. This position will be responsible for ensuring that our database meets the highest standards of accuracy and integrity. This includes designing and implementing data import procedures, performing quality assurance checks, and finding and fixing data errors. This person will work closely with our Baseball Research & Development and Baseball Systems groups. All offers contingent on satisfactory background check.

Responsibilities:

• Strong experience with SQL (particularly Microsoft SQL Server and SQL Server Integration Services (SSIS)).
• Detail oriented.
• Knowledge of basic probability and statistics.
• Strong communication skills.
• Minimum two years of experience in similar role.
• Willing to relocate to the St. Petersburg, Fla., area.
• Willing to work some nights and weekends during baseball season.

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Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball Data Architect

Location: Boston
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A few weeks ago Zach Buchanan of The Cincinnati Enquirer wrote a column titled “Can Michael Lorenzen be a two-way player?” It’s an intriguing question, and not an entirely far-fetched idea. The 25-year-old Reds right-hander was both a pitcher and a center fielder at Cal State Fullerton. Per Buchanan’s article, he could “kind of see it come to fruition” in the future.

For Christian Bethancourt, the future is now. As Eno Sarris shared yesterday in his look at two-way possibilities, the Padres are planning to use the strong-armed backstop both behind the plate and out of the bullpen.

Don’t count Bobby Dalbec among those looking to follow in Bethancourt’s footsteps. His resume suggests he could — Dalbec dominated on the mound in last year’s College World Series — but Boston drafted him as a third baseman, which is where he wants to stay. Our own Eric Longenhagen feels he has a future there, as Dalbec came in at No. 5 on that Red Sox’ top-prospect list.

When I talked to him this spring, the 21-year-old University of Arizona product told me he doesn’t particularly like pitching, and that he did it primarily because the Wildcats wanted him to play both ways. No longer having to perform double duty “took a big weight off [his] shoulders.”

He cited preparation as the biggest challenge.

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The other day, I got a text from a baseball friend, asking if the Padres and Dodgers were getting prepped for the most lopsided opening-day matchup in baseball history. I didn’t and don’t have any good way to respond, since the necessary calculations would be way over my head, but it’s at least fun to poke around here to show just how awful this really looks. The Padres are bad, and the Dodgers are good. To make matters worse, the opening-day Padres get Jhoulys Chacin, and the opening-day Dodgers get Clayton Kershaw. One of the best teams in baseball, at home, against one of the worst teams in baseball, and the best team gets to use the best starting pitcher on the planet. Fantastic!

You might know that we calculate game odds, based on matchups, lineups, and location. When the Nationals hosted the Marlins earlier today, we put the Nationals’ pregame odds of winning at 63.2%. When the Mets hosted the Braves, we put the Mets’ pregame odds of winning at 65.2%. Here is where the Dodgers started off:

75.6%. Before anything had happened, we gave the Dodgers a 75.6% chance of winning. You don’t need the numbers to tell you the Padres were already up against it coming in, but for reference, all of last season, there were just seven games with the favorite at at least 75%. The most lopsided matchup of all had the favorite at 77.8%. Of the seven games in this table, four were Kershaw starts.

You see that the favorite won all of those games. This Dodgers-Padres showdown would’ve ranked as the seventh-most lopsided game of last year. No one’s going to be favored against Kershaw and the Dodgers, but at least in theory, on opening day, you get to put your best foot forward. The Padres’ best foot involves Jhoulys Chacin. The next game, at least, should look a lot better.

I’ll point out that last year’s biggest upset had the Phillies overcoming pregame odds of 74.4% in the Pirates’ favor. One day in, and the Padres have a shot to pull off a bigger upset than anything we saw all of 2016. How have things been going since I started this entry, when the teams were knotted up 1-1?

I see.

It’s opening day, and things can be weird, so let’s quickly check some Brewers and Rockies readings. Junior Guerra‘s fastball today averaged a little over 92. Last year, it averaged a little over 93. Tommy Milone‘s fastball today averaged a little over 88. Last year, it averaged a little under 88. Nothing crazy yet. Scott Oberg‘s average fastball matched up well with last year’s mark. Jon Gray’s average fastball seems up a few hairs from last year. There’s adrenaline in the first game of the season. I think we’re okay to proceed.

Let’s proceed!

That’s a slider. If I could just-

But could-

There’s no w-

Jon Gray threw a very good slider last season. According to the run values we have on the leaderboards, out of all starting pitchers, Gray’s slider ranked 14th-best, at 13.9 runs above average. He was in between Carlos Rodon and CC Sabathia. Here are the fastest average sliders thrown by starters:

Hey look, it’s Gray! Gray is no stranger to having velocity. He pumps his fastball into the mid-90s with regularity. The slider, last year, was something. On Monday, according to Gameday, it averaged 90.9 miles per hour. That’s right where 2016 Syndergaard sat. Granted, Syndergaard also pitched Monday, and this time his slider averaged 91.6. No pitcher should make a habit of trying to chase Noah Syndergaard, because that’s a competition you’re going to lose, but Gray was just flinging Syndergaard-esque breaking balls in between heaters, and this would take some getting used to. Unsurprisingly, going up against the Brewers, Gray was completely dominant.

And then things came off the rails in the fifth and Gray wound up with an 11.25 ERA. Surprise! It’s baseball! This is what you missed about baseball. Or what you didn’t miss at all, even just a little bit.

In honor of Opening Day 2017, we thought it would be fun to take a look back at the five craziest Opening Day games (or home openers), as defined by swings in win expectancy. So we did, in this video we just posted at our Facebook page! Happy baseball!

Thanks to Sean Dolinar for his research assistance.

Unless something changes between now and Monday, Byung Ho Park won’t be in Minnesota when the Twins open at home against the Kansas City Royals. According to reports, the Korean slugger will begin the season with Triple-A Rochester. This comes as a surprise. Park was by far the team’s best hitter in spring training, bashing six home runs and slashing .353/.414/,745.

Numbers of a different order are part of the reason — Park isn’t on Minnesota’s 40-man roster — and Paul Molitor’s club is apparently going to carry 13 pitchers. Even so, the lineup lacks power, and Park is one of the few players capable of providing it.

There is another matter to consider: alienation. Park presumably won’t walk away from his contract — he’s signed through 2019 with a 2020 buyout — but at the same time, he can’t be pleased. The former Nexen Heroes star has been working hard to prove that last year’s disappointing debut was a simple matter of learning curve and bum wrist. When I spoke to him earlier this week in Fort Myers, he sounded like 2016 was in his rearview.

“Last year helped me a lot toward preparing for this year,” Park told me through a translator. “Last season I was a little anxious about some of the players I was facing for the first time. Now I feel more confident to face Major League Baseball. I can be less stressed out, and play a better game.”

Park’s problems with velocity are well-documented — a fact he owns up to — but MLB-quality heat wasn’t the only hurdle he faced in his first season stateside. Much of the stress he experienced came away from Target Field.

“I had to acclimate to so many different things outside of the baseball,” explained Park. “It’s easier to get through all of those things now, so I can purely focus on baseball, and on making myself better.”

Park admitted that doubt began to creep into his mind last year — maybe he wasn’t going to succeed here, as expected — but that is no longer the case. He feels his timing is much improved, and that he’s ready to do damage against American League pitchers.

The opportunity to prove that is temporary on hold. Byung Ho Park will begin the season as a Rochester Red Wing, not a Minnesota Twin.

Earlier this week we completed the fifth annual Effectively Wild season preview series, which an astonishing 98.1 percent of polled listeners sadistically demanded that we do. If you already are or would like to become a listener, you’ve clicked on the appropriate post! Find the team that you’d like to hear me, Jeff Sullivan, Vin Scully, and an informed media member discuss. Then prepare to be disappointed, because it’s just me, Jeff, and the more informed media member, who differs by the day.

Even so, we’re worth a listen if you’re trying to set the scene for Opening Day. We’re well-trained: Click the links below (or subscribe) to open individual episodes, and we’ll start speaking on command. I’ve done the math, and even if you haven’t started yet, you have more than enough time to marathon the whole thing before the season starts.

The teams are listened in order of episode publication, so we’re not trying to predict anything on this page, except that this podcast compendium could be useful to you.

AL West: Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Twins, Indians, White Sox
AL East: Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox
NL West: Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Dodgers, Padres
NL Central: Pirates, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Brewers
NL East: Marlins, Mets, Braves, Nationals, Phillies

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Position: Boras Corp. Baseball Research Analyst

Location: Southern California
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As I mentioned recently on Twitter, a friend of mine asked how common it is for a pitcher to be drafted by a major-league team after he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery.

I honestly didn’t know the answer, but assumed the rate was rather low.

I grabbed data on Tommy John surgeries from Jon Roegele’s indispensable database and draft information from Baseball-Reference. I focused on drafts that have occurred since 1986 and just the first 10 rounds. I then isolated individuals drafted as pitchers and merged the two data sets based on player name.

The overall rate of teams selecting pitchers who have already undergone Tommy John surgery appears to be 1.8%. Now, that rate changes a bit over time. There are many reasons for this, I’m sure: increased prevalence of the surgery, teams becoming more comfortable selecting a player who has undergone the surgery, and simply better data in the Tommy John database for later years.

In any case, here’s the rate trend by year:

Starting in 2006, the rate begins to increase, with the highest rates coming the past three seasons. On average, teams are now selecting pitchers with a prior Tommy John surgery between 7-9% of the time.

Who’s getting selected and by whom also differs to some extent.

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