Angels Trading for Jhoulys Chacin

The Angels season has been wrecked by injuries, most notably the season-ending injury to Garrett Richards, leaving them with a big hole in their rotation. And with no pitching depth in the minors, the team has been scrambling to fill the hole. Today, apparently, they found an outside option.

Jhoulys Chacin has strung together five encouraging starts from an xFIP perspective, cutting his walks and upping his strikeouts while still getting his regular share of ground balls. His ERA is ugly, but that’s mostly due to a high BABIP and low strand rate, things that haven’t been a problem for Chacin throughout his career; his career 3.82 ERA is 23 points better than his 4.05 FIP/xFIP. So there’s no real reason to think Chacin’s got a new found contact problem, and if any of his strike zone improvement is real, he could be a decent back-end starter again.

Of course, Chacin isn’t going to save the Angels season, which was probably over even before Andrelton Simmons also was lost for the next few months. He will make their rotation less terrible, but he’s not going to make it good, so hopefully they didn’t give up too terribly much for a rotation stopgap in a lost season. But if they didn’t give up much, then it wouldn’t be clear why the Braves — who also have a terrible rotation — would give Chacin away. So we’ll see what this ends up being. Chacin probably isn’t anything special, but he’s at least interesting enough to acquire and see what he turns into. Of course, those are reasons the Braves could have kept him too.

We’ll see what this turns out to be once the final details are announced.


We’ve Probably Been Underestimating KBO Hitters

Last year, Jung-ho Kang became the first hitter to make the transition from the Korean Baseball Organization to Major League Baseball. To say it was a success would be a remarkable understatement, as Kang put up a 130 wRC+ on his way to a four win season and a third place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Considering that Kang will cost the Pirates a grand total of $20 million, posting fee included, over the five years for which his contract runs, his signing was probably the best transaction any team made in 2015. The Pirates bet on a quality KBO hitter paid off in a massive way.

Thanks to Kang’s success, the door opened for more KBO hitters to follow, and this year, Byung-ho Park and Dae-ho Lee have joined Kang in the big leagues. But it’s not like Kang’s success led to instant riches for the pair; Park got a four year, $12 million deal from the Twins with an option that could push it to 5/$18M, and Lee got a minor league deal that would pay him up to $4 million if he made it to the big league roster and hit all his incentives. Teams were more open to KBO hitters — and in Lee’s case, a KBO hitter who had already made the transition to the more difficult NPB league in Japan — but the contracts suggest plenty of skepticism about the expected production levels from both hitters.

It’s obviously too early to be making any kind of declarations, but here’s what Park and Lee have done in their first six weeks of action.

Byung-Ho Park and Dae-Ho Lee
Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Byung-ho Park 102 8% 30% 0.300 0.283 0.244 0.324 0.544 0.368 138
Dae-Ho Lee 50 6% 16% 0.326 0.242 0.283 0.340 0.609 0.397 164

Park has 22 hits; 12 of them have gone for extra bases. Lee has 13 hits, and five of them have gone for extra bases, but they’ve all been home runs. Between them, they’ve launched 12 home runs in 152 plate appearances; Nolan Arenado currently leads the big leagues with 12 home runs in 145 plate appearances.

Now, they won’t keep hitting bombs at this rate. Lee’s HR/FB rate is a hilarious 46%, and Park is at 28%; the highest sustained HR/FB rate any hitter has put up during the last decade is Giancarlo Stanton’s 26%. Chris Davis, who is generally considered to have 80 power, has had 24% of his fly balls leave the yard during his career. Adam Dunn was at 22%. Chris Carter is at 21%. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are at 20%. This is the reasonable range for top-of-the-shelf power hitters, and both Park and Lee are surpassing those levels, making it almost impossible to keep hitting for as much power as they have.

But power is also something that is very hard to fake, and the fact that both guys are showing off this kind of power suggests that they’re better equipped to handle MLB pitching than was advertised. While Lee has certainly benefited from being platooned — 60% of his at-bats have come against lefties — and Park’s contact rate might limit his upside even with real power, these guys both look like average-at-worst MLB hitters, and Park is probably a good bit better than that.

Combined with what Kang did in his first year in the big leagues, it seems likely that MLB teams have been overly skeptical of KBO hitters. And the three teams who were willing to make small bets on their ability to hit MLB pitching may get rewarded in a big way.


Nationals Keep Stephen Strasburg For Themselves

UPDATE: Strasburg gets fairly minor innings-based incentives, and he has what’s termed a “rolling opt-out” after years three and four. OK!

***

There was a lot of chatter last offseason about next offseason, and about how dreary it looked. There was a line of thought that teams were happy to throw money around because they didn’t want to have to pick through next year’s free-agent crop. The options were shaping up to be thin behind Stephen Strasburg. The options are thinner now.

Chelsea Janes broke the news that Strasburg has re-signed with the Nationals long-term. Jon Heyman puts the contract at $175 million over seven years, probably with deferrals and opt-outs. You remember how this stuff works — deferrals reduce the present-day value of the deal, but opt-outs work in the other direction. Opt-outs remain en vogue, while deferrals remain particularly en vogue with the Nationals. Nothing too surprising about the details of the contract. More surprising is the existence of the contract in the first place.

Strasburg is represented by Scott Boras, and he was five months from free agency. Boras clients have skipped free agency because of an extension before, but this one wasn’t expected, not with Strasburg so obviously the best free-agent pitcher due up. Look at this list. LOOK AT IT. With Strasburg off the board, what’s best of what’s left? Rich Hill? Potentially James Shields? Potentially Scott Kazmir? Nothing against any of those pitchers, but they don’t blend Strasburg’s talent and intrigue. Even if Strasburg isn’t officially an ace yet, he was going to be the closest thing. Now he’s just going to keep the same uniform.

Which is not to suggest that Strasburg and Boras aren’t doing well here. How much more could Strasburg really get? David Price got $217 million over seven years, with one opt-out, but Price has the better history, with no scar. That ligament replacement is meaningful, because there’s concern ligaments are vulnerable to re-busting, which makes Strasburg appear more of a risk. By no means should Strasburg be considered a ticking time bomb. He’ll either get hurt again or he won’t, and no one knows the answer. The Nationals know Strasburg pretty well. I think it’s safe to say there’s some additional risk, of either injury or under-performance, and when you factor that in, this is a hell of a deal. Strasburg’s talent + perfect health might = $250 million. Today we see Strasburg’s talent + Strasburg’s history = $175 million.

Over the past three calendar years, out of every starter with at least 300 innings, Strasburg ranks 17th in adjusted ERA, 10th in adjusted FIP, and fourth in adjusted xFIP. At present, for the first time in his career, Strasburg has four pitches he’s comfortable throwing at least a tenth of the time, and that could be a sign of his evolving toward someone better able to generate weak contact. And maybe that’s not the case, I don’t know, because Strasburg sure does throw a lot of innings against the Braves, but there’s no doubting his ability to strike batters out, and walks have never been a problem. This year, there are some other encouraging signs. Strasburg isn’t declining, is the point.

Perhaps his history means he’ll decline soon. Perhaps his history means he’ll get hurt again soon. We still don’t actually know that much about how guys bounce back from UCL replacement, but based just on the Strasburg example to this point, he’s got bullets left in him. The Nationals are counting on his having thousands. This is bad news for would-be spenders, and would-be buyers of Sonny Gray, but now Strasburg has cashed in, and the Nationals have demonstrated that they’re good to play for after all. After spending the winter mostly getting turned down, the Nationals have locked up one shiny prize.


Job Posting: Houston Astros Senior Baseball Systems Developer

Position: Houston Astros Senior Baseball Systems Developer

Location: Houston

Description:

The Houston Astros are seeking a Senior Baseball Systems Developer for the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The Senior Baseball Systems Developer will collaborate with the analytics team to build infrastructure and design systems that encourage the effective understanding and application of information throughout Baseball Operations.

If you are passionate about understanding the game of baseball, enjoy the challenge of solving a diverse array of problems and want to work in a collaborative team environment where your contribution will make a difference, this is the position for you.

Responsibilities:

  • Create and maintain web and desktop applications.
  • Integrate video within applications.
  • Build reports and data visualizations.
  • Assist in building a data structure that facilitates analytical research.
  • Implement complex data models.
  • Produce ad hoc queries to support the R&D team.
  • Help evaluate and test new technologies.

Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree or higher in computer science or related field.
  • 7+ years of relevant work experience.
  • Expert in C#, ASP.Net, JavaScript (jQuery) and SQL.
  • Knowledge of CSS, HTML, Web API, functional programming, SSIS and SSRS.
  • Experience working with big data and scalable systems is a plus.
  • Familiarity with mobile app development (PhoneGap) is a plus.
  • Experience with baseball, baseball data and understanding of sabermetric concepts.
  • Possess excellent problem solving capability and the ability to quickly learn new technologies.
  • Good interpersonal, verbal, and written communication skills.

To Apply:
Please apply here.


Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters: Day 10 of 10

Other radio-broadcast ballots: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego.

Recently, the present author began the process of process of reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. The purpose of those rankings? To place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams — a grade intended to represent not necessarily the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather the appeal those announcers might have to the readers of this site. By way of MLB.TV feeds, the typical major-league telecast offers four distinct audio feeds — which is to say, the radio and television commentary both for the home and road clubs. The idea of these broadcast rankings was to give readers an opportunity to make an informed decision about how to consume a telecast.

Below are another collection of six ballots for radio broadcast teams.

For each broadcasting team, the reader is asked to supply a grade on a scale of 1-5 (with 5 representing the highest mark) according to the following criteria: Charisma, Analysis, and then Overall.

Charisma is, essentially, the personal charm of the announcers in question. Are they actively entertaining? Do they possess real camaraderie? Would you — as is frequently the case with Vin Scully — would you willingly exchange one of your living grandfathers in order to spend time with one of these announcers? The Analysis provided by a broadcast team could skew more towards the sabermetric or more towards the scouting side of things. In either case, is it grounded in reason? The Overall rating is the overall quality of the broadcast team — nor need this be a mere average of the previous two ratings. Bob Uecker, for example, provides very little in the way of analysis, and yet certainly rates well overall, merely by force of personality. Finally, there’s a box of text in which readers can elaborate upon their grades, if so compelled.

***

San Francisco Giants

Some relevant information regarding San Francisco’s broadcast:

  • Play-by-play coverage is typically provided by Jon Miller.
  • Color analysis is typically provided by Dave Flemming.
  • Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper appear from the TV side sometimes.

Click here to grade San Francisco’s radio broadcast team.

Read the rest of this entry »


Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters: Day 9 of 10

Other radio-broadcast ballots: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL.

Recently, the present author began the process of process of reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. The purpose of those rankings? To place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams — a grade intended to represent not necessarily the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather the appeal those announcers might have to the readers of this site. By way of MLB.TV feeds, the typical major-league telecast offers four distinct audio feeds — which is to say, the radio and television commentary both for the home and road clubs. The idea of these broadcast rankings was to give readers an opportunity to make an informed decision about how to consume a telecast.

Below are another collection of six ballots for radio broadcast teams.

For each broadcasting team, the reader is asked to supply a grade on a scale of 1-5 (with 5 representing the highest mark) according to the following criteria: Charisma, Analysis, and then Overall.

Charisma is, essentially, the personal charm of the announcers in question. Are they actively entertaining? Do they possess real camaraderie? Would you — as is frequently the case with Vin Scully — would you willingly exchange one of your living grandfathers in order to spend time with one of these announcers? The Analysis provided by a broadcast team could skew more towards the sabermetric or more towards the scouting side of things. In either case, is it grounded in reason? The Overall rating is the overall quality of the broadcast team — nor need this be a mere average of the previous two ratings. Bob Uecker, for example, provides very little in the way of analysis, and yet certainly rates well overall, merely by force of personality. Finally, there’s a box of text in which readers can elaborate upon their grades, if so compelled.

***

New York Mets

Some relevant information regarding the Mets’ broadcast:

  • Play-by-play coverage is typically provided by Howie Rose.
  • Color analysis is typically provided by Josh Lewin.
  • Like six other guys maybe appear for select games.

Click here to grade the Mets’ radio broadcast team.

Read the rest of this entry »


Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters: Day 8 of 10

Other radio-broadcast ballots: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City.

Recently, the present author began the process of process of reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. The purpose of those rankings? To place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams — a grade intended to represent not necessarily the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather the appeal those announcers might have to the readers of this site. By way of MLB.TV feeds, the typical major-league telecast offers four distinct audio feeds — which is to say, the radio and television commentary both for the home and road clubs. The idea of these broadcast rankings was to give readers an opportunity to make an informed decision about how to consume a telecast.

Below are another collection of six ballots for radio broadcast teams.

For each broadcasting team, the reader is asked to supply a grade on a scale of 1-5 (with 5 representing the highest mark) according to the following criteria: Charisma, Analysis, and then Overall.

Charisma is, essentially, the personal charm of the announcers in question. Are they actively entertaining? Do they possess real camaraderie? Would you — as is frequently the case with Vin Scully — would you willingly exchange one of your living grandfathers in order to spend time with one of these announcers? The Analysis provided by a broadcast team could skew more towards the sabermetric or more towards the scouting side of things. In either case, is it grounded in reason? The Overall rating is the overall quality of the broadcast team — nor need this be a mere average of the previous two ratings. Bob Uecker, for example, provides very little in the way of analysis, and yet certainly rates well overall, merely by force of personality. Finally, there’s a box of text in which readers can elaborate upon their grades, if so compelled.

***

Los Angeles Angels

Some relevant information regarding the Angels’ broadcast:

  • Play-by-play coverage is typically provided by Terry Smith.
  • Color analysis is typically provided by Mark Langston.
  • Bobby Grich, Wayne Hagin, and Daron Sutton maybe all appear, too.

Click here to grade the Angels’ radio broadcast team.

Read the rest of this entry »


Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters: Day 7 of 10

Other radio-broadcast ballots: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati.

Recently, the present author began the process of process of reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. The purpose of those rankings? To place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams — a grade intended to represent not necessarily the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather the appeal those announcers might have to the readers of this site. By way of MLB.TV feeds, the typical major-league telecast offers four distinct audio feeds — which is to say, the radio and television commentary both for the home and road clubs. The idea of these broadcast rankings was to give readers an opportunity to make an informed decision about how to consume a telecast.

Below are another collection of six ballots for radio broadcast teams.

For each broadcasting team, the reader is asked to supply a grade on a scale of 1-5 (with 5 representing the highest mark) according to the following criteria: Charisma, Analysis, and then Overall.

Charisma is, essentially, the personal charm of the announcers in question. Are they actively entertaining? Do they possess real camaraderie? Would you — as is frequently the case with Vin Scully — would you willingly exchange one of your living grandfathers in order to spend time with one of these announcers? The Analysis provided by a broadcast team could skew more towards the sabermetric or more towards the scouting side of things. In either case, is it grounded in reason? The Overall rating is the overall quality of the broadcast team — nor need this be a mere average of the previous two ratings. Bob Uecker, for example, provides very little in the way of analysis, and yet certainly rates well overall, merely by force of personality. Finally, there’s a box of text in which readers can elaborate upon their grades, if so compelled.

***

Boston Red Sox

Some relevant information regarding Boston’s broadcast:

  • Play-by-play coverage is typically provided by Joe Castiglione.
  • Color analysis is typically provided by Tim Neverett.
  • Lou Merloni very possibly appears for select games.

Click here to grade Boston’s radio broadcast team.

Read the rest of this entry »


Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters: Day 6 of 10

Click here to cast ballot for television broadcast teams.

Recently, the present author began the process of process of reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. The purpose of those rankings? To place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams — a grade intended to represent not necessarily the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather the appeal those announcers might have to the readers of this site. By way of MLB.TV feeds, the typical major-league telecast offers four distinct audio feeds — which is to say, the radio and television commentary both for the home and road clubs. The idea of these broadcast rankings was to give readers an opportunity to make an informed decision about how to consume a telecast.

Below are the first six ballots for radio broadcast teams.

For each broadcasting team, the reader is asked to supply a grade on a scale of 1-5 (with 5 representing the highest mark) according to the following criteria: Charisma, Analysis, and then Overall.

Charisma is, essentially, the personal charm of the announcers in question. Are they actively entertaining? Do they possess real camaraderie? Would you — as is frequently the case with Vin Scully — would you willingly exchange one of your living grandfathers in order to spend time with one of these announcers? The Analysis provided by a broadcast team could skew more towards the sabermetric or more towards the scouting side of things. In either case, is it grounded in reason? The Overall rating is the overall quality of the broadcast team — nor need this be a mere average of the previous two ratings. Bob Uecker, for example, provides very little in the way of analysis, and yet certainly rates well overall, merely by force of personality. Finally, there’s a box of text in which readers can elaborate upon their grades, if so compelled.

***

Arizona Diamondbacks

Some relevant information regarding Arizona’s broadcast:

  • Play-by-play coverage is typically provided by Greg Schulte.
  • Color analysis is typically provided by Tom Candiotti.
  • Mike Ferrin and Mike Fetters also appear sometimes, per the Internet.

Click here to grade Arizona’s radio broadcast team.

Read the rest of this entry »


Cesar Vargas to Debut for the Padres

Back in November, the Padres quietly signed a pitcher named Cesar Vargas as a minor-league free agent. Tonight, he’s making his major league debut against the Cardinals. Vargas pitched in the Yankees organization last year, where he spun an impressive 2.55 FIP and 24% strikeout rate in relief between Double-A and Triple-A. New York let him walk as a minor-league free agent last winter, however, rather than adding him to their 40-man roster.

Interestingly, the Padres inked Vargas to a major-league contract. It’s pretty rare that a minor-league free agent signs a major-league deal, so the Padres clearly saw something they liked from the Mexican righty. Perhaps even more interestingly, they’ve used him as starter in the minors this year — something he hadn’t done since 2013, when he pitched in Low-A.

Read the rest of this entry »