Mets-Royals Team Comparison Dashboard

Building off of Eno’s comparison between the Mets and Royals, I built a quick dashboard that shows team offensive and pitching stats for all 30 teams, calling out the two World Series participants. This is just a visual representation of some of the most popular stats on our leaderboards. There are a few interesting extremes such as the three true outcomes (TTO), which Eno looked at yesterday, and batting average.

These plots are box plots without the boxes, so the location of the dot on the y-axis represents the team’s stat in that particular category. A dot’s size and color are just for call out purposes. They are also interactive so you can explore where other teams fall.

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Win Probability Added Leaders Through the LCS

Recently, after the completion of the various divisional series, I compiled win probability added (WPA) for the current postseason. In this post, I’ve updated that data to include all three rounds of the postseason thus far through Game 6 of the ALCS. Since WPA is accrued, many of the players at the top will have a higher WPA because they’ve played more games.

Batters

Batter WPA Through LCS

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What’s Behind David Price’s Postseason Struggles?

David Price can’t pitch in the postseason, maybe you’ve heard. It’s a decent 56.2 inning sample at this point, but it’s just a little bit more than a month’s worth of work. He’s had six worse months in his career.

Still, to be fair to the hand-wringing, if he had a month with a 4.10 FIP, we’d be talking about it here as well. So let’s try to look at why David Price has struggled in the postseason. Because his regular and post-season strikeouts minus walks are almost identical, it’s obviously about the home runs. His home run rate in the postseason is 77% higher than it is in the regular season!

And there’s a little something to this. A combination of a couple little things — one in his control, one not — may have lead to more home runs in the postseason than he’s seen in the regular season.

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Job Postings: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Baseball Operations

Just to be clear, there are two separate positions here.

Position: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Director, Quantitative Analysis

Location: Anaheim

Description:
This position is responsible for developing and overseeing the research and analytics initiative within Baseball Operations, reporting to the General Manager and Assistant General Manager. Angels Baseball is an equal opportunity employer.

Responsibilities:

  • Direct and develop Quantitative Analysis staff by identifying strong candidates, supervising projects, and providing constructive feedback.
  • Perform advanced quantitative analysis on baseball datasets to improve Baseball Operations decision-making, including predictive modeling and the development of an internal player projection system.
  • Effectively present analysis through the use of written reports, tables, and data visualization methods to disseminate insights to other members of the Baseball Operations staff and aid in decision-making.
  • Identify new techniques, models, and algorithms for application to internal processes.
  • Meet with vendors and make recommendations for investment in new data and technology resources to enhance Baseball Operations decision-making.
  • Contribute to general baseball decision-making and generate ideas for player acquisition, in-game strategy, and roster construction.
  • Manage components of Baseball Operations budget related to Quantitative Analysis department.
  • Other projects as directed by General Manager and Assistant General Manager.

Qualifications:

  • Advanced degree or equivalent experience in statistics, mathematics, computer science, or a related field.
  • Demonstrated ability to effectively communicate complex concepts to colleagues possessing a diverse set of backgrounds and with varying experience with quantitative methods.
  • Minimum of five years work experience in mathematical, statistical, and predictive modeling.
  • Demonstrated expertise with baseball datasets and sabermetric analysis.
  • Demonstrated ability in problem-solving and project management and a desire and ability to act as a mentor to members of the analytics staff.
  • Demonstrated expertise with R, STATA, SPSS, SAS, or similar statistical computing software.
  • Demonstrated expertise in relational database development and administration with Microsoft SQL Server, MySQL, or other database systems.
  • Knowledge and demonstrated ability with computer programming and machine learning techniques.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please submit your resume and cover letter here.

Position: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Baseball Information Analyst

Location: Anaheim

Description:
The Los Angeles Angels are seeking a Data Scientist for the team’s Baseball Analytics group. The Baseball Information Analyst will work closely with the Director, Quantitative Analysis and our analytics team to research, develop, and test mathematical, statistical, and predictive models that support Baseball Operations. Angels Baseball is an equal opportunity employer.

Responsibilities:

  • Research, design, and test predictive and statistical models to enhance Baseball Operations decision-making.
  • Provide guidance for and aid in the development of junior members of the analytics staff.
  • Work with Systems Architect to design and build decision-support tools and support the development of baseball systems.
  • Effectively present analysis through the use of written reports, tables, and data visualization methods to disseminate insights to other members of the Baseball Operations staff and aid in decision-making.
  • Other projects and related duties as directed by Director, Quantitative Analysis.

Qualifications:

  • Advanced degree or equivalent experience in statistics, mathematics, computer science, or a related field.
  • Demonstrated ability to effectively communicate complex concepts to colleagues possessing a diverse set of backgrounds and with varying experience with quantitative methods.
  • Excellent analytical and problem-solving skills.
  • Experience with baseball datasets and sabermetric analysis.
  • Demonstrated expertise with R, STATA, SPSS, SAS, or similar statistical computing software.
  • Proficiency with Microsoft SQL Server, MySQL, or other relational database systems.
  • Experience with computer programming and machine learning techniques.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please submit your resume and cover letter here.


NLCS Game 4: Curses! The Mets Sweep

It’s dark in Chicago right now. It’s especially dark at Wrigley Field, and it will remain that way until next spring. The Cubs lost to the Mets tonight by a score of 8-3 and are done for the season.

Despite their bright future, it will be a winter of discontent for the supposedly-cursed franchise. That’s always the case when you enter a league championship series with high expectations, only to fall short. It’s even worse when you’re unceremoniously swept.

The beat down was methodical and severe. To many, it was preordained. After all, these are the Cubs. As Steve Goodman sang in A Dying Cubs Fan’s Last Request, “You raise up a young boy’s hopes and then just crush ’em like so many paper beer cups. Year after year after year after year after year after year after year after year.”

But to be honest, that refrain has grown old. History and hexes had nothing to do with the sweep. They lost to a darn good team. In Game One, it was a Dark Night who beat the Cubs, not a black cat. In Game Two, it was a Met named Murphy who did the damage, not a goat named Murphy. Steve Bartman didn’t reach out and cause the run-scoring wild pitch that gave New York a lead they didn’t relinquish in Game 3. As for Game 4, Chicago hosts a Lebowski Fest and Lucas Duda’s nickname is The Big Lebowski. That’s ironic as hell, but it’s not a curse.

On the off chance you missed tonight’s game, Duda crushed the souls of Cubs fans with a three-run jack in the first inning. He then drilled a two-run double in the second to put the home team in a 6-0 hole.

The early onslaught that buried the Cubs was exactly what multiple Mets were looking for. Following Game 3, Michael Conforto told me his team “can’t afford to take anything off the throttle, because they’re very explosive and you don’t want to let them get anything started.” Tyler Clippard agreed, saying, “We have to keep our nose to the grindstone, because once a team starts to get a leg up on you, momentum can shift pretty quickly.”

Momentum was a foreign word for Joe Maddon’s team all week. Chicago never held a lead in the four games, largely because they didn’t have an answer for New York pitching. They certainly didn’t have one for Daniel Murphy. The Mets second baseman went an unreal 9 for 17, and homered in each game. Curse him if you want, Cubs fans, but he had an NLCS for the ages. Along with his teammates, he’s on his way to the World Series.

As for the team that calls Wrigley home, a “Let’s Go Cubbies” chant broke out as the Mets dogpiled on the mound. It was brief — much like the just-completed series — but it was heartfelt. These are, after all, the Cubs.


A Brief Post Capitalizing on Daniel Murphy’s Unlikely Success

The purpose of this post, nominally, is to provide some manner of brief but substantive comment on the exploits of second baseman Daniel Murphy, which player just recorded his sixth home run in as many postseason games for the (likely) National League champion Mets. The purpose of this post simultaneously is to capitalize on the enthusiasm of the public for Murphy’s accomplishments by providing an internet link on which they might idly click.

For those reading these words, the second objective has been accomplished. To satisfy the terms of the first objective, the author has produced the following — namely, a table of the 16 qualified batters from 2015 (out of 141 total) who recorded fewer home runs this year over 162 games than Murphy himself has over a half-dozen of them.

Qualifiers with Fewer Homers Than Postseason D. Murphy
Name Team PA HR
1 Brock Holt BOS 509 2
2 Ben Revere 634 2
3 Nick Markakis ATL 686 3
4 Alcides Escobar KCA 662 3
5 Erick Aybar LAA 638 3
6 Angel Pagan SFN 551 3
7 Dee Gordon MIA 653 4
8 Andrelton Simmons ATL 583 4
9 Yadier Molina STL 530 4
10 Chris Owings ARI 552 4
11 Billy Burns OAK 555 5
12 Anthony Gose DET 535 5
13 Ender Inciarte ARI 561 6
14 DJ LeMahieu COL 620 6
15 Jace Peterson ATL 597 6
16 Jean Segura MIL 584 6

Okay, Ted Barrett’s Zone Was Crazy Pants

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been pointing out that the strike zone graphic used by TBS is not representative of the actual strike zone used in MLB, and is giving fans the wrong impression of the quality of the home plate umpiring in the playoffs. After nearly every NL game, we’ve seen a cascade of calls roasting that night’s umpire for making a bunch of bad calls, but in most cases, PITCHF/x has confirmed that the umpires are calling the same pitches they always call.

Today, though, I’m not going to defend last night’s umpire. Ted Barrett worked the plate for the Cubs/Mets game, and his zone was atrocious.

chart (25)

BarrettLH

BarrettRH

Those two called strikes off the plate to left-handed batters — one against Lucas Duda, one against Curtis Granderson — are bananas. That down and away pitch that Pedro Strop threw to Kelly Johnson is almost never called a strike either.

But Mets pitchers got their own share of nutty calls as well, especially at the bottom of the zone. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Chris Denorfia all had strikes called on them on pitches so far down that they shouldn’t have been reasonably expected to swing. And Kyle Hendricks took a pitch from deGrom at the very edge of even the shifted right-handed zone, because apparently a pitcher hitting against another team’s ace also needs a huge strike zone to contend with.

Barrett’s zone went both ways, and he wasn’t favoring one team or another, but last night’s strike zone was worth complaining about. This wasn’t just TBS misleading viewers with a poorly drawn graphic. Ted Barrett’s strike zone last night really was enormous.


NLCS Game 3: Cubs on the Brink

Walking around Wrigley Field before tonight’s game had a different feel to it. The everything-is-possible electricity that permeated last week’s NLDS showdown against St. Louis was gone. There was energy in the air, but it was a nervous energy. Cubs fans seemed apprehensive, if not a little bit scared.

You couldn’t blame them. Not only was their team down two-games-to-none, the losses came with Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta on the mound. The bats were turned stone cold by Mets’ pitchers at frosty Citi Field, and now they were up against Jacob deGrom, the best of a talented New York staff.

They cheered to mask their fear. Prior to the first pitch, a “Let’s Go Cubbies” chant drowned out the introduction of the New York starters. Solo homers by Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler proceeded to raise the roof. The annulment of a Mets run – courtesy of a ball-in-the-ivy ground-rule – elicited one of the loudest sighs of relief you’ll ever hear.

Beyond that, the noise appeared almost obligatory in nature. It was cheering for the sake of cheering. Base runners were at a premium for the home team all night, while the visitors had no shortage of traffic. Sloppiness also marred the effort. Chicago didn’t play a clean game, with a Trevor Cahill wild pitch the most egregious of the mistakes. It brought in a run, and the Cubs – despite their best efforts – weren’t scoring many of their own.

The atmosphere was subdued by the later innings. Smatterings of applause greeted the final outs of the top of the ninth inning, but nothing more. It was uncomfortably quiet in the bottom half. The Mets won 5-2, but it felt like 10-2.

Drizzle is falling as fans file out of the ballpark. It’s only fitting, because while a glimmer of hope remains, their fears are coming to fruition. The Cubs are on the brink of elimination.


Neverending Footage of Jose Bautista’s Bat Flip

Because Homer provides little in the way of psychological commentary and also because Achilles isn’t a real person, it’s hard to know precisely how the latter feels during Book XXI of the Iliad while avenging the death of Patroclus by filling the River Scamander with so many Trojan dead that the river itself is compelled to assume human form and reprimand the hero, as follows:

“Achilles… My fair waters are now filled with corpses, nor can I find any channel by which I may pour myself into the sea for I am choked with dead, and yet you go on mercilessly slaying. I am in despair… trouble me no further.”

As I say, it’s difficult to understand precisely what sort of redemptive pleasure Achilles experiences during that episode — but also less difficult, now, for those of us who have witnessed Jose Bautista (first) homering and (then) hurling his bat into whatever lays beyond the eternal mise en scene.

Footage robbed without shame from Gregor Chisholm of the Internet.


Job Posting: TruMedia Networks Principal / Senior / QA Software Engineer

Position: TruMedia Networks Principal / Senior / QA Software Engineer

Location: Boston (remote possible)

Description:
TruMedia is looking for Principal, Senior and QA Software Engineers to help build tier one sports analytics and scouting solutions. The ideal candidates will be passionate sports fans, have a strong interest in data science and have the ability to work on the full software stack with a focus on web development and user interface design. Interfaces will be needed for web based solutions as well as mobile platforms.

Why TruMedia?

  • TruMedia is a fast growing sports analytics firm with a focus on changing the way we all look at sports.
  • TruMedia’s clients include world class brands like ESPN and TruMedia works directly with both MLB teams and NFL teams.
  • TruMedia is making it’s own path and we love to have fun as we innovate.
  • Everyone’s opinion matters and we look forward to working with people that are excited to share their insights.
  • Flexible work environment.

Qualifications:

  • 2+ years experience developing web applications in a software engineering team.
  • Working with engineers, designers, third parties, and stakeholders.
  • JavaScript
  • HTML/CSS
  • JQuery
  • Windows and Linux
  • MySQL

Additional Usefull Skills:

  • Analytics
  • Statistics
  • Business Intelligence
  • AWS
  • D3
  • Node.JS
  • Express
  • Angular, Backbone, or other MVC frameworks
  • HTML5
  • MongoDB
  • IOS/Android Apps (including video playback)
  • Video Players
  • Experience working with a remote team

Compensation:
These positions are compensated. Full-time is preferred.

To Apply:
Please email TruMedia.