As you’ve certainly heard by now, the Diamondbacks swung a deal for Shelby Miller (and Gabe Speier) on Wednesday night. The trade gives the D-Backs another bona-fide starter to slot behind the recently signed Zack Greinke. The more controversial story, though, is the size of the package given up by Arizona in the deal: Aaron Blair, Ender Inciarte, and oh yeah, Dansby Swanson. In what follows, I provide a stats-driven look at the prospects involved in the trade using my KATOH projection system.

Dansby Swanson (Profile)

As last year’s first overall pick, Swanson is easily the centerpiece of the trio headed to Atlanta. Unfortunately, he logged just 99 plate appearances after signing, which isn’t enough data for me to formulate a meaningful KATOH projection. I will note, though, that Swanson hit the snot out of the ball in those 99 plate appearances. He posted equal strikeout and walk numbers with good power, which yielded a .289/.394/.483 slash line. KATOH will likely pick up on these strong suits next year, once Swanson gives me a bit more data with to work. As a shortstop, Swanson’s level of offensive ability is exciting, and there’s no reason to think he won’t develop into an excellent player. As a point of reference, consider that Andrew Benintendi put up numbers not unlike Swanson’s in his pro debut this year, and is projected for 7.0 WAR through age-28. These two players have their differences, of course, but this should give you a loose benchmark of how Swanson may grade out once he has more playing time under his belt.

Read the rest of this entry »

For the second straight season, the Houston Astros have prioritized bolstering their bullpen. Last year, the club signed Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. This winter, the team has already completed a trade for the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ace in Ken Giles. Today, the Astros secured a piece of their playoff club long-term, bringing back Tony Sipp, as first reported by Evan Drellich. Ken Rosenthal filled in the details as Sipp’s deal is for three years and $18 million for the lefty.

Sipp spent the first five years of his career as a roughly replacement-level reliever for the Indians and Diamondbacks before catching on with Houston during the 2014 season. Since coming to the Astros, he has pitched very well, striking out roughly 30% of batters and sporting an identical 2.93 FIP in each of the last two seasons. Sipp had a ridiculous 88 left-on-base percentage last season that drove his ERA under two, and while that feat is unlikely to be matched next season, Sipp is still a good bet to keep producing. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, the Mets acquired second baseman Neil Walker from the Pirates for Jon Niese, seemingly filling out their infield. Apparently they weren’t done, though, as they’ve now signed middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera to a two-year deal, as first reported by Chris Cotillo.

Cabrera will earn $18.5 million over two seasons with a club option for a third year, and our contract crowdsourcing project had him pegged for $27 million over three years — similar AAV, but an extra guaranteed year.

After two slightly below league average seasons at the plate in 2013 and 2014, Cabrera was again above league average last year, which is valuable for someone who can play shortstop. Thing is, it’s no guarantee Cabrera is any better at the plate than Wilmer Flores — Steamer’s 2016 projections actually prefer Flores — and it might be a stretch to consider Cabrera a shortstop anyway.

Over the last three seasons, Cabrera has been baseball’s worst defensive shortstop by DRS (-30), baseball’s worst defensive shortstop by UZR (-25), and second-worst defensive shortstop by FRAA (-18). Flores has never been trusted at short by scouts and the metrics have seen him as below-average in a still-small sample, and the newly-acquired Walker is average, at best, at second base. Lest we forget Ruben Tejada, who also graded out among the league’s worst defensive shortstops this year, despite a generally solid defensive reputation. The Mets infield defense was exposed as a liability on the national stage in the World Series, and yet it doesn’t look like they made it a priority to improve that area at all for the upcoming season.

The surplus of infield depth seems to indicate that the Mets aren’t optimistic about David Wright’s chances of playing a full season at third base. Flores will likely see time at both shortstop and second, Cabrera will see time at both middle infield positions, and Walker could even play third base in a pinch, though he last appeared at the hot corner in 2010.

It’s possible that the addition of Cabrera, alongside Walker, opens up the possibility of Flores being shopped as a trade chip. We all remember the infamous non-trade of Flores at the deadline this year. On the other hand, it’s possible the Mets are just stocking up on depth early as opposed to later, so they don’t have to trade for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe midseason again. Too much depth isn’t a bad thing, but the collection of infielders the Mets have assembled and their somewhat similar skillsets makes for a bit of an odd family.

Since the Astros bullpen blew a 6-2 lead in Game 4 of the ALDS, it’s been widely expected that they were going to make moves to reinforce their relief corps this winter. After a few months of kicking around various options, the team today acquired a potentially dominating new closer.

Told #Astros trading pitchers Vince Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer and Brian Fisher to Phillies for closer Ken Giles, pending physicals.

— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) December 10, 2015

A fourth player is headed to Phillies in Giles deal.

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) December 10, 2015

Giles might not yet have the household name of an elite relief ace, but over the last couple of years, he’s absolutely pitched like one.

2014-2015 Top 10 RPs by xFIP-

Name	IP	BB%	K%	GB%	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-	WAR	RA9-WAR
Andrew Miller	124	8%	42%	48%	11%	81%	0.252	49	46	46	4.2	4.4
Aroldis Chapman	120	12%	46%	39%	5%	84%	0.316	46	37	50	5.2	4.8
Dellin Betances	174	10%	40%	47%	9%	88%	0.248	36	50	54	5.6	7.5
Kenley Jansen	117	6%	39%	35%	10%	82%	0.312	72	54	55	3.9	2.9
David Robertson	127	7%	36%	40%	15%	72%	0.280	81	64	56	3.4	2.3
Zach Britton	142	7%	26%	77%	18%	82%	0.256	44	65	60	3.2	5.5
Craig Kimbrel	121	10%	38%	44%	9%	81%	0.256	57	60	62	3.7	3.9
Brett Cecil	107	9%	33%	53%	9%	79%	0.312	65	59	63	2.5	2.5
Wade Davis	139	8%	35%	43%	3%	90%	0.231	25	44	63	5.0	7.2
Ken Giles	115	8%	33%	45%	3%	78%	0.297	40	47	69	3.7	3.2

Giles’ insanely low home-run rate is unlikely to last, but even with regression there, the strikeout numbers allow him to profile as a high-end closer. He’s not quite Craig Kimbrel, but he’s in that mold, and acquiring Kimbrel-lite isn’t so bad, especially when you are picking up five years of team control, though it should be worth noting that arbitration pays closers handsomely, and so he might not be a significant value for all five of those years if his salaries escalate quickly.

Still, this is a non-rental elite reliever, the kind of guy who can dramatically improve the Astros bullpen, and the type of pitcher who has seen his stock improve dramatically this winter. To land Giles, the team had to give up a valuable pitching prospect in Vincent Velasquez — who could profile better in relief himself, and might end up as a dominating relief ace himself if he can stay healthy — and former first-round pick Derek Fisher, along with a couple of other parts. The trade makes plenty of sense for the Phillies, who don’t need to be stockpiling relievers while they rebuild, but also gives the Astros quite a bit more certainty in 2016.

In his suite Tuesday afternoon, Billy Beane talked about making the most impact possible with the fewest dollars, something that would sound familiar any given year. And though his club’s bullpen was bad last year, he insisted it was a means by which they could get better this offseason without spending a lot. When the bullpen came up a third time, he sounded almost wistful about the velocity some teams were able to trot out in the last innings.

By adding John Axford on a two-year deal for $10 million, as the Athletics did Wednesday (pending a physical), he underlined those comments.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Mets looked like quite possibly the favorites to sign Ben Zobrist, right up until they didn’t do that. So now they’ve gone ahead and re-purposed their “Welcome” sign to read “Neil Walker” instead, picking up the second baseman from the Pirates for Jon Niese (pending physicals) . It’s a straight one-for-one, with Walker set to make almost $11 million, and Niese set to make $9 million. Walker is then eligible for free agency, while Niese has a pair of club options.

For the Mets, Walker subs in for Zobrist in theory, but he’s really subbing in for Daniel Murphy. And the convenient thing about that is Walker, overall, is awful similar to Murphy. He switch-hits, yeah, and he has a bit of a different personality, and Murphy strikes out less often, but these are slightly above-average hitters who are probably slightly below-average defenders at second. Walker projects for a 113 wRC+, while Murphy projects at 109. Both of them are 30, although Murphy will sooner turn 31. Walker doesn’t bring everything that Zobrist would’ve, particularly beyond just the season ahead, but this is almost like an extension of the status quo. Walker is a fine player, and the Mets have plenty of excellent players.

On the Pirates end, Walker has long been the subject of trade rumors, particularly with his free agency approaching. In Niese, the Pirates have added rotation depth, and depth that could be controlled for another three years if that’s what they prefer. Niese’s club options are worth $10 million and $11 million, and he’s looked like a decent pitcher in the past. He has a track record of being in the vicinity of average, around some worrisome shoulder problems.

Niese did just lose some strikeouts. You never want a pitcher to lose strikeouts. What he didn’t do was lose any velocity, and now he gets to join up with Ray Searage. And I feel obligated to point something out — Niese projects for a 4.13 FIP, according to Steamer. Shelby Miller projects at 4.22. Mike Leake also projects at 4.22. I don’t mean to suggest that’s everything, or that Niese ought to be on that level, but that is an objective forecast. He could easily be restored to being an average starting pitcher, and these days those go for more than $10 – 11 million a year. That’s probably the Pirates’ angle.

For the Mets, Niese was clearly expendable, and they wanted help in the infield. And it’s better to gamble on a hitter than on a pitcher with a shoulder history. But the Pirates could pull some value of their own out of this, and it wouldn’t even require that much Searage magic. Just Jon Niese pitching more or less like himself. Fold back in a few more strikeouts, and you have a No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a modest salary. It’s not nothing.

The Braves have reportedly sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for 25-year-old outfielder Ender Inciarte, 23-year-old right-hander Aaron Blair, and last year’s number one overall pick, 21-year-old shortstop Dansby Swanson. The Diamondbacks get a good pitcher under control for three years, and the Braves continue their rebuilding process.

Read the rest of this entry »

The other shoe dropped soon after the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist and created a logjam at second base — Starlin Castro is reportedly heading to New York for Brendan Ryan and Adam Warren. The deal, at its worst, is a way for the Cubs to spread some talent around at areas of need while giving the Yankees an average second baseman. Need for need.

The arm the Cubs are getting could change the calculus, though.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs have reportedly signed Ben Zobrist to a four-year deal worth $56 million. That’s definitively not an $80 million deal, but at the behest of agents, all sorts of silly numbers get thrown around in the rumor mill. This number makes a lot more sense. In fact, the deal seems to be paying for floor.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a deal which will presumably make more sense when all the details come out than it does now, the Cardinals are reportedly set to acquire Jedd Gyorko for Jon Jay, with perhaps other players (or money) being in the deal.

Source: Jon Jay is going to San Diego. https://t.co/9GHVvrxqDV

— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 8, 2015

The Padres need a center fielder and more left-handed bats, so Jay to San Diego makes plenty of sense, since he mostly lost his job in St. Louis due to the Cardinals outfield depth. But the Gyorko to STL part of this is a little tougher to figure, given that the Cardinals already have three good players at the the infield spots where Gyorko could fit. Matt Carpenter is entrenched at third, Jhonny Peralta is locked in at shortstop, and Kolten Wong established himself as their second baseman a year ago, and Gyorko is at best a platoon option at second and occasional starter at 3B/SS. He’s a solid enough depth piece for a team that needs a decent backup middle infielder, but there’s also this.

Assuming the buyout of the final year of that deal, Gyorko is due $33 million over the next four seasons. Yes, free agent prices are going up, but I don’t see how Gyorko gets 4/$33M on the open market, especially not to play in a reserve role. Chase Utley got 1/$7M to play more than Gyorko will. Cliff Pennignton got 2/$4M to serve as the Angels utility infielder. It’s not that hard to argue that Gyorko’s youth makes him preferable to both of those guys, but 4/$33M for a guy who is going to play 2-3 times per week? I don’t think MLB is there yet.

So I’m guessing that the Padres are either eating a good chunk of this deal, or there’s another player going to San Diego that will help balance the scales a bit. Perhaps in the end, this will be the Andrew Cashner deal or something, with Gyorko included to just lower the price in prospects the Cardinals had to pay to get something else. That’s total speculation, but it would make more sense than the Cardinals taking on $33 million in salary for a utility infielder.