Here’s a weird thing about Marcus Stroman’s slider: it has more drop than his curveball. We still call it his slider because it goes four miles per hour faster than his curve, but the curve has slowly tilted sideways. Or, to say it better, Stroman’s other pitches have tilted downwards and the curve has stayed about the same.

Check out Stroman’s release points. For every pitch other than the curve and the sinker, Stroman is an inch or two more over the top this year.

In related news, all of Stroman’s pitches — other than the curve — are dropping more this year.

Marcus Stroman Vertical Movement by Year

Year	Fourseam	Sinker	Change	Slider	Curve	Cutter
2013	9.1	0.0	6.4	-0.7	-3.9	4.3
2014	9.2	3.3	3.9	-1.4	-2.3	4.9
2015	8.6	1.8	3.6	-2.0	-1.1	4.0

SOURCE: BrooksBaseball.net

Movement = PFx_z, or vertical ‘drop’ in inches

Could this just be mucking with classification systems? Maybe. The two pitches are only three mph apart. Let’s look at the movement on both of his breaking balls in one place and see if they’ve moved from last year to this year, then. Use the filter to change years.

Yup. The slider drops more than the curve, and the curve is more horizontal this year. He’s also using the slider more this year, and the curve less. But the whiff and ground-ball rates on the curve are better than they are for the slider.

Going more over the top has increased the ground-ball rate on all but his slider, and that may be why he’s pitching today. Not going over the top as much on the curve has made that pitch more of a frisbee than a round-house curveball.

Maybe he’s still getting his feet under him, and things will change again in the future. But for now, Marcus Stroman may be the only pitcher in baseball that has a slider that drops more than his curveball. PITCHf/x classifies his pitches a little differently, but we can forgive that system. He’s got a strange mix.

There’s no reason, really, for FanGraphs.com to publish the footage one finds here of the improbably majestic home run authored earlier tonight by Kyle Schwarber during his club’s postseason victory over St. Louis — no reason, that is, because all relevant sports-media outlets have already examined the home run and its attendant majesty. And yet, what one finds here is that same footage, reproduced once again for the public and unaccompanied by anything in the way of particularly insightful analysis.

“Pourquoi?” a Frenchman might ask in French. And “Pourquoi pas?” a second Frenchman might reply. Because the French are contrary by nature, is probably why. But also because, yes, there’s little incentive not to have done it.

The overriding theme of this year’s NLDS is age and the passage of time. That calendar dynamic is two-fold, and it pertains solely to the team advancing to the NLCS. The Chicago Cubs are a talented kiddie corps. The Chicago Cubs haven’t won the World Series since 1908.

If baseball’s lovable losers (or, to some, not-so-lovable losers) extend their goat-exorcizing quest even further, overkill is inevitable. You’re excused if you think we’ve reached that point already. Far more electronic ink has been spilled on the Cubs than on the team that finished with the best record in either league. St. Louis is good again. St. Louis is back in the postseason. Ho-hum.

It’s not fair, really. But it is understandable. Fresh faces that teem with talent is a good storyline, and truth be told, 107 years is a long time.

Jason Hammel started for the home team, and predictably it wasn’t pretty. The journeyman right-hander had a 5.37 ERA over his last 13 outings, and according to catcher Miguel Montero, “in the second half, he kind of started elevating his fastball a little bit more; obviously you don’t want him to do that.”

The wind – as it was last night when eight balls left the yard – was blowing out. Read the rest of this entry »

What I like about this little InstaGraphs section is that it allows for plays to be highlighted even if they don’t turn out all that important. Given what the Cubs pulled off Monday, it would be weird to dedicate a whole front-page post to a home run hit by Jason Heyward. Not a lot of people even clearly remember a home run being hit by Jason Heyward. The Cubs did well to smother the memory of that dinger with all the dingers of their own. On InstaGraphs, though, I don’t have to care what matters. An InstaGraphs post is almost like a footnote. Let’s you and I watch a footnote.

The Cardinals made it a game again when Heyward went out and clobbered an outside breaking ball. Though the Cubs wouldn’t relinquish the rest of their lead, it did at least make for some nervous moments. And you’ll notice it wasn’t a bad pitch. It wasn’t even a strike. Jake Arrieta threw Heyward a 1-and-1 ball, and Heyward took it the other way for a homer. Arrieta had previously allowed one home run over the span of 412 plate appearances. A run like that is made all the more remarkable when you realize sometimes home runs can just be the result of simple bad luck.

According to PITCHf/x, the home-run pitch was 15 inches away from the middle of home plate, meaning it was more than six inches off the outer edge. That makes it the third-most outside pitch hit for a home run by a lefty in 2015. Heyward is topped only by Chris Davis and Freddie Freeman, and you can see screenshots below:

The thing that stands out here — Davis was pretty far up in the box. Freeman was pretty far up in the box. Heyward was more in the middle, so he had to reach out that much more, accomplishing something close to full extension. While Davis and Freeman hit pitches that were more outside, by a little bit, Heyward’s might’ve been the most outside, relative to his body. I don’t know. It was far away, is the point.

He also hit a line drive, instead of a classic dinger. According to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, under ordinary conditions, Heyward’s home run would’ve left precisely one major-league ballpark. Arrieta has now allowed 11 home runs in 2015 — three of them had just enough juice to leave one stadium. Home runs can come out of nowhere. Even when you, the pitcher, have done nothing to deserve them. Sometimes good pitches get hit out. Sometimes pitches that are just plain well out of the zone get hit out. The most amazing thing about Arrieta is that this hasn’t happened more. Maybe now it’s going to. Baseball is stupid like that. Baseball always wants to prove that it’s smarter than you.

That’s a review of what Jason Heyward did. It mattered for some minutes. No one’ll remember it a week or two from now. Yesterday, it was outnumbered by other extraordinary things. Further extraordinary things will take place in the weeks ahead. So many little things are remarkable, and baseball just ties them all together and advances from one to the next almost without ever stopping. And you thought baseball needed to move faster.

The sun was still out when the first pitch was thrown in today’s Cubs-Cardinals Game 3. That’s as it should be. Wrigley Field is all about day baseball, and with a five o’clock start, the skies didn’t begin to darken until the fourth inning.

Right from the get-go, the crowd was sonorous, and without need of “Get loud!” prompting from the video board. A fervent fan base with 100-plus years of woe in their collective conscience doesn’t require help. (Not that kind, anyway.) And kudos to Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts for recognizing it. As the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan pointed out, Ricketts has decreed that no such artificial nonsense will besmirch the NL’s oldest venue.

Wrigley roared as one when Kyle Schwarber homered in the second. Two innings later, Starlin Castro equaled the rookie’s feat and the fans roared again. When Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo went back-to-back in the fifth, it was downright deafening. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, the Braves made an announcement, and I happen to be part of it.

Wednesday will be my last day as Lead Prospect Analyst here at FanGraphs, as I’ve accepted the position of Assistant Director of Baseball Operations with the Atlanta Braves. The staff has been great to work for, particularly the guys who decided to take a chance on me: David Appelman and Dave Cameron. They gave me all the resources I asked for and all the support I could imagine for my sometimes odd-sounding ideas.

I think we accomplished something special in setting at least a new template for covering scouting and player development, if not a new standard. My 2016, 2017 and 2018 draft rankings will come out tomorrow, and I have one more project that will be rolling out soon. I was only able to finish about half of what I had set out to accomplish here, so I’m disappointed that I left some of my ambition on the table, but the opportunity I was given for a new challenge was too great to pass up.

In my new job, I’ll be working with arguably the best group of scouts in baseball and coming aboard under new GM John Coppolella. I’ve known Coppy for a while, dating back to when he was my boss with the Yankees for my first baseball operations job, in 2005, while I was still in college. I’m all in on his vision for running a front office and also building an organization, with his fingerprints already all over the organization. John Schuerholz and John Hart are legends and they have arguably the most impressive resumes in the game; I’m thrilled to work for them. It also seemed like the office could use a guy not named John.

I’ll be brief explaining my role, as I’ll be there to learn and contribute behind men with more experience than me. In short, I’ll be doing many of the same things I did for FanGraphs: contributing to the draft and international signings, scouting the minor leagues and doing what I can to improve the big league product, all of these from both a scouting and analytics perspective. I am grateful for everything the FanGraphs family has done for me and to you guys for reading and participating in the process. I look forward to this new challenge and will do everything I can to ensure that it includes multiple World Series titles.

Thanks to everyone for reading, and for all the feedback — positive and negative — that you’ve offered me over my time here. Keep reading FanGraphs, and start watching the Braves; I’m looking forward to what both organizations do going forward.

Early in Monday’s game between the Royals and Astros, Yordano Ventura tried to come inside against Carlos Correa, and he hit him. A little less early in the same game, Ventura again tried to come inside against Correa, and this time Correa did the hitting:

This calls for the usual screenshots to highlight the event’s subtle absurdity. The moment of contact, paused:

Clearly, an inside pitch, off the plate, although the stupid camera angle messes with our perception. Thankfully, the Gameday window doesn’t operate with a senselessly off-center angle:

Now you get it. First-pitch fastball, inside, not particularly close to being a strike. And yet, a dinger! And not one of the cheap dingers. This one was clobbered, even though the pitch was more than eight inches inside from the inner edge of home plate.

It’s not the first time Correa has done this. A 2015 leaderboard of right-handed hitters who’ve homered on pitches at least a half-foot inside from the edge of the strike zone:

• Carlos Correa, 3 such home runs
• Matt Duffy, 2
• several players, 1

Correa leads baseball in this admittedly arbitrary category, and only he and Duffy have done this multiple times. Correa’s Monday home run was one of the most inside pitches hit out of the yard on the year, and while one could argue Correa would be better off taking these pitches instead of swinging, since he won’t always go deep, Correa has proven his ability to turn inside pitches around. He can, at least, do more damage on these pitches than most. It’s not an accident — he works hard on keeping his hands in, which is what lets him get out in front of these.

Correa just batted a third time while I was writing this. The first two times, Ventura tried to work him in. The third time, Ventura tried to work him away. Correa slashed a tie-breaking double down the line in right field. He’s good at that too.

The first inning has just ended between Kansas City and Houston at the latter’s home field (box). Starters Yordano Ventura and Lance McCullers have already touched 97 and 96 mph, respectively, with their fastballs according to MLB.com’s Gameday data. Nor would it be particularly surprising for either starter to continue sitting at those velocities: among all the possible starting-pitcher matchups in these divisional series, the two involved in this game are likely to record the highest average combined velocity between any two starters.

Regard, by way of illustration, the following table, which features the top-10 average fastball velocities recorded by pitchers on postseason teams. Note that velocity figures are those produced by relevant pitcher in starting capacity alone. FB% denotes fastball frequency.

Average Fastball Velocity, Possible LDS Starters

	Name	Team	IP	FB%	FBv
1	Noah Syndergaard	Mets	150.0	61.7%	97.1
2	Yordano Ventura	Royals	163.1	57.6%	96.3
3	Matt Harvey	Mets	189.1	60.9%	95.9
4	Carlos Martinez*	Cardinals	174.2	56.9%	95.3
5	Jacob deGrom	Mets	191.0	61.8%	95.0
6	Jake Arrieta	Cubs	229.0	50.7%	94.6
7	Lance McCullers	Astros	125.2	53.8%	94.5
	Vincent Velasquez*	Astros	38.0	67.6%	94.5
9	Aaron Sanchez*	Blue Jays	66.0	76.5%	94.4
10	Steven Matz	Mets	35.2	68.4%	94.3
	Carlos Frias*	Dodgers	71.1	56.3%	94.3

*Omitted from LDS rotation/roster.

Had St. Louis right-hander Carlos Martinez not been shut down due to a shoulder strain, a hypothetical encounter between he and Jake Arrieta would have possibly produced a greater combined velocity. In his absence, however, McCullers and Ventura are likely to receive the distinction.

Official word is in: Chase Utley has been given a two-game suspension for this.

Many league suspensions get appealed, though, and Utley’s case is no different, with Utley’s argument being that there isn’t much of a precedent for this at all. He wouldn’t have known he could get suspended for an aggressive takeout slide at second. A week and a half ago, this happened in Texas, and there wasn’t any discipline:

Unlike Utley’s slide, that one took place over the base, but it was also horribly late, with the runner coming down on the infielder’s shin. As the slide completed, the runner was several feet beyond the bag. But there wasn’t a major injury, and later on Rougned Odor apologized to Johnny Giavotella. It was one of those “just playing the game” things, and this isn’t meant to single out Odor. It seems like slides like this happen on a daily basis.

So, for Utley, it’s about the lack of precedent. He did something a lot of players would do, and he’s facing discipline in large part because the other guy happened to get injured. From the league’s standpoint, though, you have to start somewhere, if you want to eliminate this play. Someone has to be the first to get penalized, unless you want to wait to do anything until the playoffs are over. And I imagine they didn’t want to risk another injury. They wanted to make a statement, and this was an opportunity.

So! A poll, for you.

The Rangers won on Friday in no small part because of Rougned Odor’s baserunning after he got to first. But no less impressive was Delino DeShields‘ baserunning on his way to first. In the 14th inning, this happened, immediately following the single that made the difference in the game. So while it turned out this RBI was unnecessary, it might’ve also been the single most incredible display of raw skill in the contest:

For some context, here’s a table, copied from this website. Rating times from home to first base:

Alternatively or additionally, from an old article by Jon Heyman:

Consider that on a swing a 4.0 time for a right-handed hitter and 3.9 for a left-handed hitter is considered an “8” on the 2-8 scout’s scale, or all-time great.

From contact, going frame by frame, I have the baseball arriving at first base in about 3.8 seconds. Fast enough to retire practically anyone and end the inning. But instead, DeShields seems rather easily safe. Because I have him getting from home to first — starting at contact — in about 3.7 seconds. Which would be three-tenths of a second faster than an 80-grade runner. It’s the same as the difference between an elite runner and an average one.

In some ways, footspeed is the most overrated skill in baseball. But sometimes, it really is enough to create something out of what ought to be nothing. Delino DeShields isn’t impossible to throw out, but you couldn’t blame Troy Tulowitzki if he’s feeling that way. Normal athletes don’t move that fast. Conventionally elite ones don’t either.