In perhaps the easiest move to predict of the entire winter, Dave Dombrowski went and bought his new team an ace. And it’s the same ace he went and bought 18 months ago, for his old team, so I think we can say with a good amount of clarity that Dombrowski likes David Price. A lot.

To lure the best free agent pitcher on the market to Boston, the team gave him the largest contract for any pitcher in baseball history: seven years, $217 million. In addition to the $31 million annual average value, Price also gets an opt-out after the third year, so the deal could be viewed as a three year, $90 million contract, with a four year, $127 million player option that Price can choose to exercise if he gets injured or sees his performance diminish. So not only does Price’s deal beat Max Scherzer’s contract from a year ago in terms of total value and not include the deferred money that Scherzer took to get that total, but he also gets the right to hit the market again and get an even larger payday in a few years if he continues to pitch at a high level over the next 600 innings.

In terms of expectations, this deal beats the crowd’s estimate by $21 million, though my 7/$215M guess ended up being pretty close, though I didn’t think he’d also get an opt-out. Steamer projects him for +5.3 WAR in 2017, so based on our normal assumptions about the free agent market, the $/WAR framework would have had him at just a hair over $240 million. If you think the opt-out is worth about $25 million, then this is almost exactly in line with an $8 million per win estimate for free agents in this market.

David Price’s Contract Estimate — 7 yr / $241.2 M

Year	Age	WAR	$/WAR	Est. Value
2016	30	5.3	$8.0 M	$42.4 M
2017	31	4.8	$8.4 M	$40.3 M
2018	32	4.3	$8.8 M	$37.9 M
2019	33	3.8	$9.3 M	$35.2 M
2020	34	3.3	$9.7 M	$32.1 M
2021	35	2.8	$10.2 M	$28.6 M
2022	36	2.3	$10.7 M	$24.7 M
Totals		26.6		$241.2 M

Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

It’s certainly a huge commitment, but it’s a huge commitment for a great player, and Price should help get the Red Sox back to being a playoff contender. Their work certainly isn’t done after adding just one arm, but this is a big first step for the Red Sox.

On Thanksgiving Eve, the Athletics acquired infielder Jed Lowrie from the Astros in exchange for minor league reliever Brendan McCurry. If you haven’t already, you should check out Jeff Sullivan’s piece on Lowrie. This abbreviated missive focuses not on Lowrie, but on the minor league reliever who’s headed to Houston.

An undersized reliever, McCurry fell all the way to the 22nd round in 2014’s amateur draft, but his minor league performance has since lifted him to fringe prospect status. McCurry worked in relief at High-A and Double-A last season, where he pitched exceptionally well. He struck out 32% of his batters faced last season, and finished up with a 2.44 ERA.

McCurry’s numbers are excellent, but plenty of minor league relievers put up excellent numbers, especially in the lower levels. Throw in that he’s nearly 24, and he’s about as fringy as they come. KATOH forecasts McCurry for a mere 0.7 WAR through his age-28 season, making him the 771st highest-ranked prospect. Going by the stats, at least, most organizations have multiple relief prospects just as interesting as McCurry, if not more interesting. His Mahalanobis distance comps help illustrate how rarely guys like this become anything more than Triple-A depth.

Brendan McCurry’s Mahalanobis Comps

	Name	Year	Mah Dist	IP	WAR
1	Austin House	2014	0.23	0	0
2	Seth Frankoff	2013	0.28	0	0
3	Adam Kolarek	2012	0.37	0	0
4	Randy Fontanez	2013	0.42	0	0
5	Zack Thornton	2012	0.47	0	0
6	Cody Ege	2014	0.59	0	0
7	Grant Dayton	2012	0.71	0	0
8	Seth Rosin	2012	0.73	6	0
9	Robert Bell	2009	0.76	0	0
10	Rob Musgrave	2010	0.77	0	0
11	Zach Quate	2010	0.82	0	0
12	Ricky Brooks	2008	0.91	0	0
13	Cody Winiarski	2013	1.08	0	0
14	Mason Mcvay	2014	1.1	0	0
15	Kyle Bellamy	2010	1.12	0	0
16	C.C. Lee	2009	1.12	34	0
17	Jose Valdez	2012	1.22	0	0
18	Christopher Nunn	2014	1.24	0	0
19	Hector Neris	2012	1.25	41	0
20	Justin Kaye	2000	1.31	3	0

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Red Sox have added to their outfield depth today.

Sources: #RedSox in agreement with free-agent outfielder Chris Young on a multi-year contract, pending a physical.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 30, 2015

Chris Young the hitter is one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball today, combining the ability to play all three outfield spots with some lefty-mashing abilities, making him a very nice platoon partner and capable reserve who won’t drag the offense down too far if pushed into regular duty. He gave the Yankees 350 quality plate appearances in just that role last year, putting up +1.2 WAR as a useful part-time player, and now he’ll take his skills to Fenway Park to provide depth behind the young OF trio of Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr.

With Betts and Castillo both being right-handed, it would seem that — barring a trade — most of Young’s playing time may come as part of a job-share with Bradley. Or, alternately, the team could be looking at trading Rusney Castillo and replacing him with a left-handed hitting outfielder; they’ve been rumored to have interest in Alex Gordon and Jason Heyward at different points this winter, and while you’re not going to platoon either of those guys, having Young around would be more useful if two of the three OFs were lefties.

Or, potentially, they just might like Young’s fit in their ballpark. After all, he’s about as extreme a pull hitter as there is in baseball.

Chris Young by Field Direction

Field	wOBA
Pull	0.496
Center	0.291
Oppo	0.156

Young is also one of the game’s most extreme fly ball hitters, and since Fenway inflates the value of fly balls to left field, Young’s skillset could work better in Boston than places without a Green Monster to bounce balls off of. So perhaps this isn’t as much about a roster fit as it is a skillset fit.

We don’t have terms of the deal just yet, but the FG crowd had Young down for a two year, $12 million deal in the crowdsourcing project, which sounds about right to me.

Well, the first major free agent domino has fallen, as the Tigers have agreed to sign RHP Jordan Zimmermann to a five year, $110 million deal. While I listed Zimmermann as a potential landmine to avoid this winter, that was with the expectation that he’d end up getting something closer to the 7 year, $140 million deal I guessed, but this comes in even below the crowd’s expected 6 year, $126 million estimate; it is pretty rare that a high-end player signs for less than the crowd expects.

At this price, Zimmermann seems a good bit more likely to be worth the deal. With an assumed cost of $8 million per win this winter, plus 5% annual inflation, this price is almost exactly what you’d expect if you projected Zimmermann as a +3.5 WAR pitcher for 2016.

Jordan Zimmermann’s Contract Estimate — 5 yr / $108.4 M

Year	Age	WAR	$/WAR	Est. Value
2016	30	3.5	$8.0 M	$28.0 M
2017	31	3.0	$8.4 M	$25.2 M
2018	32	2.5	$8.8 M	$22.1 M
2019	33	2.0	$9.3 M	$18.5 M
2020	34	1.5	$9.7 M	$14.6 M
Totals		12.5		$108.4 M

Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

That’s certainly not an absurd expectation, given his career track record; he’s averaged +3.7 WAR per 200 innings up to this point, and has been at +3.0 or better in five straight seasons. Steamer has him at closer to +3 WAR for next year, as it’s a little down on him due to the decline in velocity and strikeout rates in 2015, and it doesn’t think he’ll be able to keep suppressing home runs as he did earlier in his career. But even at that somewhat pessimistic forecast, he still looks like about a $90 million pitcher, so this isn’t some huge risk for Detroit. If he stays healthy, this contract will probably turn out fine for Detroit.

It will be interesting to see what Zimmermann signing for less than expected will do to the rest of the mid-tier pitching market. I’d imagine Johnny Cueto’s agents aren’t thrilled with this deal.

Just to be clear, there are two job postings here.

Position: Cincinnati Reds Manager of Baseball Analytics

Location: Cincinnati

Description:

The Cincinnati Reds are seeking a Manager for the team’s Baseball Analytics department. The Manager of Baseball Analytics will work closely with the Senior Director of Baseball Analytics and Manager of Baseball Systems to implement the department’s research and development efforts and statistical models within new and existing applications. We envision the person in this position to play a major role in the creation of new baseball analytics concepts with the ultimate goal of enhancing on-field performance.

Responsibilities:

• Work with our Analytics staff to integrate new statistical analyses, models and data visualizations into existing and new applications.
• Design stored procedures and views for baseball operations database systems using Microsoft SQL Server.
• Work closely with front office, coaching and scouting personnel in the compilation, analysis and visual representation of baseball information, including professional, amateur and advance scouting, player development and in-game strategy.
• Conduct research related to baseball strategy, player evaluation and sports science by performing ad-hoc database queries and analysis.
• Assist Director in prioritizing the implementation of new initiatives and continued evolution of existing applications by identifying present and future needs of Baseball Operations staff.
• Serve as project manager for all Baseball Operations analytics projects.
• Ensure that Baseball Operations staff is fully informed of statistical and technological research related to the game and identify new trends.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in computational field, such as Statistics, Mathematics, Engineering, Quantitative Social Sciences or Analytics strongly preferred.
• Experience with Major League front office, sabermetric website or related work.
• Ability to design and implement complex database structures using SQL Server tools.
• Strong understanding of typical baseball data structures, plus knowledge of current baseball research and traditional baseball statistics and strategy.
• Working familiarity with advanced mathematical and statistical concepts, including experience implementing statistical models, simulations, derivations, and graphical representations into software applications.
• Experience with Javascript, R, Python, Perl, and/or other languages a plus.
• Experience with statistical software, programming languages and/or machine learning techniques is strongly preferred.
• Ability to communicate effectively with all aspects of Baseball Operations, Scouting and Player Development staffs, and understand their job functions and subsequent software needs.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

…

Position: Cincinnati Reds Baseball Operations Analyst

Location: Cincinnati

Description:

The Cincinnati Reds are seeking an Analyst for the team’s Baseball Analytics department. The Analyst will work closely with the Senior Director of Baseball Analytics to enhance the department’s research and development efforts with respect to statistical models and applications.

Responsibilities:

• Create and enhance predictive models by integrating data from all available sources, including advanced statistical feeds.
• Work closely with the Director and Major League coaching staff to identify trends gleaned from statistical data feeds and develop systems to automate these processes.
• Work closely with front office, coaching and scouting personnel in the compilation, analysis and visual representation of baseball information, including professional, amateur and advance scouting, player development and in-game strategy.
• Conduct research related to baseball strategy, player evaluation and sports science by performing ad-hoc database queries and analysis.
• Ensure that Baseball Operations staff is fully informed of statistical and technological research related to the game and identify new trends.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in computational field, such as Statistics, Mathematics, Engineering, Quantitative Social Sciences or Analytics strongly preferred.
• Experience with Major League front office, sabermetric website or related work a plus.
• Proficiency with SQL and relational databases, using SQL Server tools.
• Strong understanding of typical baseball data structures, plus knowledge of current baseball research and traditional baseball statistics and strategy.
• Working familiarity with advanced mathematical and statistical concepts.
• Experience with R, Python, Perl, and/or other languages a plus.
• Experience with statistical software, programming languages and/or machine learning techniques is strongly preferred.
• Advanced knowledge of Microsoft Excel, Access and Visual Basic for Applications.
• Strong analytical, problem-solving skills, interpersonal and communication skills.
• Ability to communicate effectively with all aspects of Baseball Operations, Scouting and Player Development staffs.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

Position: Texas Rangers Baseball Operations Intern

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
Interns assist in the day to day operation of the Baseball Operations department. Duties will include some of the following (depending on background): compiling and maintaining data, writing reports, developing visualizations, SQL queries, player evaluations, independent research. We’re looking for unique profiles and perspectives – how can your strengths complement our organization?

Possible Profiles/Majors/Backgrounds:

• Scouting
• Applied mathematics, statistics
• Engineering, computer science/software development
• Psychology
• Physics
• Kinesiology
• Economics, business management
• You tell us – how can your specialty contribute?

Qualifications:

• Must be an excellent communicator.
• Must relocate to the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
• Passion for baseball.
• Must be very organized.
• Must be willing to work long hours, weekends and holidays.

Compensation:
This position is compensated. An in-person interview is preferred.

To Apply:
Please email resumes and cover letters along with links to any baseball research, blog posts, software or other projects here.

The Royals outperformed their preseason projections here at FanGraphs by a substantial 16 wins. The Royals also assembled one of the best defensive teams in the majors this year — and have done so for much of the recent past. Indeed, from 2011 to 2015, the Royals have produced the league’s highest UZR total (175), averaging 35 runs saved per season above average.

One area I have not seen quantified is the effect a good defense (such as that possessed by the Royals) might have when combined with a low-strikeout pitching staff. Would a good defensive team’s pitchers and defense record more outs and post lower ERAs than FIPs? Probably some, but also how much of difference would it actually make? I decided to perform a quick study to see if there was anything to my little theory.

Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Inside Edge Baseball Operations Intern

Location: Minneapolis

About Inside Edge:
Inside Edge Scouting Services specializes in data capture and analytics down to the finest details of every Major League game. Major League clubs, media, and other clients subscribe to our real-time pitch-by-pitch data, custom-tailored reports, and advanced analytic tools to gain an edge on their competition. We provide an exciting, fast-paced work environment and an opportunity to get started on a career in baseball and differentiate yourself from other job seekers. Past interns have gone on to positions with both Major League clubs and media organizations.

Description:
Candidates filling this position will gain valuable experience with technologies and processes increasing their qualifications to work in baseball and the broader sports industry. College and / or professional baseball playing experience is a plus. Hires can expect to begin training March 14, and the position will run until the end of the 2016 season. Interns will need to make a commitment to working most nights, weekends, and holidays over the course of the season.

Responsibilities:

• Participate in a rigorous training program before the season starts.
• Use Inside Edge software to enter and crosscheck live pitch and scoring data.
• Mark actions to be reviewed by supervisors.
• Add, review, and update qualitative player notes.
• Review video replay ensuring integrity of charted data.
• Update internal Inside Edge logs and databases.
• Generate end of game reports.

Qualifications:

• Candidates need a strong understanding of both the basics and subtleties of baseball games.
• Ability to quickly and accurately recognize pitch types and locations.
• Ability to quickly and accurately recognize scoring data.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please email Andrew Pautz.

Ladies and gentlemen, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2016 is now ready and waiting to be devoured. It is the 12th edition of the book.

We’ve got a great book this year, including the longest analysis section in the four years I’ve been working on the book — nearly 150 pages! It is available now for purchase direct from both Amazon, and our independent publishing platform, Createspace. It will soon be available for sale on the Kindle as well.

You can read a full breakdown of the table of contents in my post that went up moments ago at THT Live.

This book is a labor of love for us every year. The book is full of posts from our great team at The Hardball Times and here at FanGraphs — Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan, Eno Sarris, Carson Cistulli, August Fagerstrom, Jeff Zimmerman, Neil Weinberg, Owen Watson, Chris Mitchell and Jonah Pemstein, among others — plus special guests like Erik Malinowski, Mitchel Lichtman and Phil Birnbaum.

We hope you enjoy it!!!

Position: Kansas City Royals Baseball Analytics Intern

Location: Kansas City

Description:

The Kansas City Royals are looking to add a creative and hard-working Intern to the Baseball Analytics Department. The Intern will work closely with Baseball Analytics to conduct research and develop tools for use by all areas of Baseball Operations (Amateur/Pro Scouting, Advance Scouting, and Player Development). The position will run from February 2016 through the end of the 2016 MLB baseball season.

Responsibilities:

• Work with amateur and professional baseball staff to provide the most relevant statistical support.
• Develop predictive models to assist Baseball Operations in player evaluation.
• Perform advanced statistical analysis on large volumes of baseball data in order to aid in Baseball Operations decision making.
• Monitor latest statistical and baseball research in order to implement the most cutting edge techniques.
• Conduct research on several new types of data to uncover actionable baseball knowledge.
• Work to understand and improve existing information systems.
• Create visualizations to both explore raw data and communicate internal tools throughout Baseball Operations.
• Ad-hoc reports or small studies that come up during the year based on circumstance.

Qualifications:

• Advanced degree or equivalent experience in mathematics, physics, statistics, or related quantitative field. Specialized training, certifications, or published research are a plus.
• Up to date knowledge of statistical analysis techniques, machine learning models, simulation of models and experience with experimental design.
• Experience manipulating (through database systems such as Oracle or SQL Server) and analyzing large data sets.
• Knowledge of baseball and baseball data (Trackman, Statcast, other high frequency data sets) is highly preferred.
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours during the baseball season is a must.
• Excellent interpersonal and communications skills and ability to interact and work with staff at all levels.
• Ability to recognize and maintain confidentiality of work materials and issues as appropriate.
• Proficiency with the following tools and/or software are required: R, MATLAB, STATA, Minitab, or similar; SQL or MySQL.
• Proficiency with the following tools and/or software are preferred: Python, C++, or similar.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.