Yesterday I examined all seven viable candidates who could one day hold the title of the last ex-Expo playing in the Major Leagues. What I found remarkable about this “race” is that there really is not an obvious favorite when it comes to who will outlast the others. With the possible exceptions of Luis Ayala and Jon Rauch, neither of whom appeared in the majors in 2014, there also isn’t an obvious dud in the group: each player has had such long journeyman careers, with so many ups and downs, it’s hard to tell what confluence of events and old age will actually knock these men out of the majors for good.
The voting separated the players into three tiers. In the first tier we had Ayala and Rauch, each receiving about 2% of the total vote. I would be encouraged by this result, if I were Ayala and Rauch: this means that dozens of FanGraphs readers believe they will in fact claw their way back to the Majors despite their recent series of roster cuts. I consider this the equivalent of a write-in candidate earning 2% of a vote for political office, which would be quite an uncommon display of public support indeed.
In the second tier we have Bruce Chen, Endy Chavez, and Scott Downs, each receiving about 6-10% of the vote. I believe the tie that binds these players is age: Chen would be entering his age-38 season, Chavez his age-37, and Downs his age-39. I do find it interesting that Chavez’s guaranteed contract for 2015 did not elevate him above Chen and Downs, who were both informed in recent days by the Cleveland Indians that they would not make the team’s Opening Day roster.
No matter: in the final tier, way ahead of the pack, we have Maicer Izturis and Bartolo Colon. At the time of this writing — about lunchtime on Friday, Pacific Standard Time — Izturis has the lead, 37% to 32%.
Despite easily being the oldest player on the list, Colon — entering his age-42 season — nonetheless seems as impervious to the effects of time better than any player since Jamie Moyer. I interpret his robust vote tally as the readers of FanGraphs saying: “What, really, is the difference between the lovably rotund Colon pitching in the big leagues (and earning Cy Young votes) at age 40, and pitching in the big leagues at age 47?”
And in the lead we have Izturis, who leads perhaps because he is comfortably in his mid-thirties instead of his late-thirties. Perhaps also in Izturis’ favor: he spent years as a utility man for the annual playoff entrant Los Angeles Angels — meaning that he rarely got over 100 starts a year, and perhaps has comparatively little wear-and-tear for a long-time veteran.
Where does my vote go? Um, I really don’t know.
While I understand why Izturis is in the lead, and am tempted to vote for him as well, his abilities as a major leaguer have fallen off quite dramatically and abruptly in his mid-thirties — an age when the rest of these dudes really seem to come alive. It remains to be seen if Izturis’ terrible tenure with the Blue Jays is just a blip on the way to his grandfatherly veteran-hood, or whether it’s all over at the end of 2015, his last year on a guaranteed deal.
Because of his established track record of sticking around the Majors despite below-replacement performance (and on some pretty great teams recently, at that) — not to mention that he has already survived a year-long hiatus from the majors in 2010 — I am inclined to vote for Chavez.
That said, I also would not be surprised if Chavez plays his last game before any of the other six players. This will no doubt be a thrilling race to keep an eye on in the coming months and years.
