The bill for using Max Scherzer to close out Game 5 of the Division Series against the Giants has come due. On Saturday afternoon, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced that he would again use Corey Knebel as the opener in Game 1 of the Championship Series against the Braves, presumably to give Scherzer — who threw 13 pitches in closing out the Giants, earned his first career save, and indicated his intent to “party hard” in celebration afterwards — an extra day of rest before his NLCS start, a move that bumps Walker Buehler and Julio Urías back one game as well.
Prior to Game 5, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said of the possibility of using Scherzer, “He’s ready for whatever we need. Obviously the most important thing is to win tonight. But we still have to think about when and if we fire that bullet there is a cost, and we have to weigh other options as far as guys we already have in particular roles who have thrived.”
With Knebel and Brusdar Graterol each pitching scoreless (but hardly adventure-free) innings ahead of Urías on Thursday, the Giants emptied their bench early in order to gain the platoon advantage, but were left with righty Wilmer Flores — who was 0-for-17 with eight strikeouts in his career against Scherzer to that point — batting with two outs in the ninth. He struck out, aided by first base umpire Gabe Morales‘ dubious strike three call on a checked swing. Knebel will again open, and Roberts has indicated that Tony Gonsolin, who has not pitched since September 30, will figure prominently in a bulk role.
From the standpoint of our ZiPS Postseason Game-By-Game Odds, the overall cost is negligible thanks to the quality of the Dodgers’ pitching. The swing in the odds of the individual games appears somewhat steep in spots as the Dodgers reshuffle their rotation, with the Braves’ decision to pitch Ian Anderson in Games 2 and 6 (if necessary) and Charlie Morton in Games 3 and 7 (if necessary) nudging the needle as well:
NL Championship Series Rotation Changes
| Game |
LAD Old |
LAD New |
ATL Old |
ATL New |
Old Odds (LAD) |
New Odds (LAD) |
Change |
| 1 |
Scherzer |
Knebel |
Fried |
Fried |
56.5% |
51.3% |
-5.2% |
| 2 |
Buehler |
Scherzer |
Morton |
Anderson |
54.5% |
58.8% |
4.3% |
| 3 |
Urías |
Buehler |
Anderson |
Morton |
61.3% |
59.3% |
-2.0% |
| 4 |
Gonsolin |
Urías |
Bullpen Game |
Bullpen Game |
50.8% |
60.0% |
9.2% |
| 5 |
Scherzer |
Gonsolin |
Fried |
Fried |
61.3% |
49.9% |
-11.4% |
| 6 |
Buehler |
Scherzer |
Morton |
Anderson |
54.5% |
58.8% |
4.3% |
| 7 |
Urías |
Buehler |
Anderson |
Morton |
56.7% |
54.5% |
-2.2% |
Max Fried’s Game 1 assignment and the Braves’ use of some kind of bullpen configuration for Game 4 were thus the only constants for either side. Still, it all comes out in the wash, moving the overall series odds by less than 1%:
NLCS Outcome Projection Change
| Outcome |
Prob |
Prob |
Change |
| Braves win in 4 Games |
3.8% |
3.3% |
-0.5% |
| Braves win in 5 Games |
7.5% |
8.9% |
1.4% |
| Braves win in 6 Games |
11.8% |
11.1% |
-0.7% |
| Braves win in 7 Games |
12.9% |
13.6% |
0.7% |
| Dodgers win in 4 Games |
9.6% |
10.7% |
1.1% |
| Dodgers win in 5 Games |
18.8% |
16.1% |
-2.7% |
| Dodgers win in 6 Games |
18.7% |
20.1% |
1.4% |
| Dodgers win in 7 Games |
16.9% |
16.3% |
-0.6% |
