Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.

American League Wild Card

Seattle beat Oakland on Wednesday, sweeping the series and knocking the A’s out of playoff contention. As such, Oakland is no longer a participant in these charts. The Blue Jays won the second game of their series against the Yankees, preventing them from falling to fourth in the playoff probabilities, behind the Mariners. We’ll be a lot closer to knowing who makes the playoffs in the AL after tonight’s games, as those contests — the last contender vs. contender matchup, as well as the biggest creampuff game for a contender — are the two highest leverage games remaining. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: R&D Analyst (Trainee and Full-Time)

The R&D Analyst position will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The day-to-day responsibilities of this position will revolve around using data analysis to provide insight into player evaluation, performance projection, roster construction, and all other facets of baseball operations decision making, with an emphasis on different areas of baseball operations depending on the baseball calendar and needs of the department. Ideal candidates will have a strong, demonstrated ability to answer wide-ranging research questions using data-driven methods. The position will report to Assistant General Manager, Research and Development.

Note: Applicants for full-time, full-season trainee, and summer intern (May-August) will be considered.

Responsibilities

• Perform advanced statistical analysis on large datasets in order to assist in the decision making of the Baseball Operations department
• Develop and maintain models, software, reports, or any other information system developed during research
• Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested and present results in a concise manner

Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, I wrote about projections and the stretch run, using ZiPS to project each individual game and estimate its relative importance for the final standings. With just a few games remaining, most have the potential to drastically swing the disposition of the race. For example, the Mariners saw their playoff probability quintuple with last night’s win over the A’s! Let’s break down the latest and greatest.

AL Wild Card

This one is still very wide open, with the main difference from 48 hours ago being that the Mariners have pushed the A’s to the brink of elimination. Oakland can still make the playoffs, but the path is narrow and would require Oakland to win three or four games while Toronto, Boston, and Seattle mostly lose, and then perhaps survive a tiebreaker. Oakland can no longer catch the Yankees, so it’s in the A’s interest for the Yankees to finish a sweep of the Jays: Read the rest of this entry »

Our 2022 Free Agent Tracker is now live! There are currently around 200 players on the list; more will be added during the weeks following the postseason as decisions are made on 2022 options and teams continue to clear space on their 40-man rosters. The tracker will also be regularly updated throughout the offseason as qualifying offers are made, accepted, and rejected, and free agents find their new homes.

You can filter by status (signed/unsigned), previous team, and signing team, and export the data for your own analysis. You can also currently sort by a player’s handedness, age, and 2021 WAR. Shortly after the postseason ends, projected 2022 WAR will be available, as well will the results of our annual contract crowdsourcing project, which include median contract total, years, and average annual value.

Players with options are not included in the list. Typically, options do not have to be exercised or declined until five days after the World Series ends. As players have their options declined, they will be added to the tracker. Some of the more notable players with at least a decent chance of having their options declined are Avisaíl García, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, and Kyle Seager. For a second consecutive offseason, both Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez will have the opportunity to become free agents by opting out of their current deals. Castellanos is very likely to return to the free agent market. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Analyst, Research and Development

Description:
Support the Baseball Operations R&D group’s efforts to analyze and provide data, statistics and other baseball-related information. The ideal candidate combines a strong background of technical skills with an understanding of baseball research concepts and modern gameplay strategies. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Senior Analyst, Baseball Research & Development

Summary:
The Washington Nationals are seeking a senior analyst to join their Baseball Research & Development team. The role focuses on using the tools of data science to derive insights from baseball datasets to support player evaluation, player development, roster construction, and in-game strategy. The senior analyst will work collaboratively with members of Baseball R&D and baseball operations. Candidates should be passionate about both baseball and statistical analysis.

The Washington Nationals are committed to creating a diverse environment and are proud to be an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability or veteran status. Read the rest of this entry »

Join us tomorrow, September 8, as we hang out and chat baseball live on Twitch at 2:00 PM ET/11:00 AM PT while the Mariners face the Astros. Everyone is invited to tune in and watch alongside Ben Clemens, Kevin Goldstein, and Dan Szymborski on our Twitch channel or the FanGraphs homepage.

The Mariners, who are still within striking distance in the AL Wild Card race, will be starting left-hander Tyler Anderson as they take on right-hander José Urquidy and the division-leading Astros in this vital September showdown. This matchup is MLB’s Game of the Week Live on YouTube. We hope you’ll be able to play hooky and watch some day baseball with us! See you there. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Director, Baseball Research

Location: Minneapolis, MN

Position Overview

As Director, Baseball Research, you will serve as a key leader in the Twins organization, overseeing the development of analytical solutions that improve the Club’s baseball performance. You will set the overall vision for Baseball Research and manage the team leads for Core Research, Sports Science, International Amateur Scouting, and Domestic Amateur Scouting (“Baseball Research Subgroups”). You will partner closely with the Director, Baseball Systems to shape the Twins’ internal baseball system. You will communicate findings with coaches, scouts, and front office executives. Read the rest of this entry »

Title: Coordinator – Scouting Operations

Summary
Assist the Domestic Scouting Department with operational tasks as directed. Work with resources across the department, the organization and outside to ensure the smooth operations of the Domestic Scouting Department, with special focus on the Rule 4 draft and Pro Acquisition contexts. Work closely with the R&D and Systems teams to ensure that all data needs are met for Domestic Scouting. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Developer – Baseball Systems

Summary
The Developer – Baseball Systems will collaborate with the Manager and rest of the Application Development team to develop exciting user-facing applications for platforms within Baseball Operations. This position requires strong software development skills and experience, as well as a demonstrated ability for independent thought and the willingness to work within a team framework.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities
Essential duties and responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned. Read the rest of this entry »