The Rockies Take on Final Boss

The first of what will likely be several Blue Jays players to depart Toronto before the deadline has been traded this evening: right-handed reliever Seung Hwan Oh is headed off to Planet Coors. While the majority of the Blue Jays’ most likely trade candidates — Josh Donaldson, for example, and basically all the starting pitchers — have generally been disappointing this year, Oh was one of the legitimate success stories for Toronto in 2018. Coming off a 4.10 ERA/4.44 FIP campaign in St. Louis, a significant decline from the 1.92 ERA he put during his first season in the United States, Oh signed with the Blue Jays for just one year and $2 million this offseason — with a $2.5 million club option for 2019 after his contract agreement with the Rangers fell through. Oh needs his slider working to have sustained success and, by and large, it’s worked this year.

Burned by bullpens that ranked among the bottom-third of baseball each year from 2014 to -16, the Rockies have spent on relievers recently, an effort which led to the seventh-best reliever WAR among clubs in 2017. The team doubled down last winter, spending $106 million to bring back Jake McGee while adding Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw to replace Greg Holland. These moves worked out less well, to be generous: McGee and Shaw have combined for an ERA well past six, while Wade Davis is in the midst of an unremarkable, though less disastrous, season as the closer. With Nolan Arenado creeping towards free agency, the team’s window to contend is now, so bringing in Oh, who can also help in 2019, is a good add, and one that didn’t require an obscene amount of money. Colorado has more problems, but they did address one of their pressing needs.

Of the players included in the return, first basemen Sean Bouchard and Chad Spanberger, the latter is interesting enough — and probably sufficiently low in the organization’s pecking-order — that I tried to acquire him for the Orioles in exchange for Adam Jones this morning. This is the preferable haul for the Rockies, though. Not likely being able to play outfield professionally — and certainly not in a large outfield like the one Coors possesses — Spanberger is probably limited to first or designated hitter. Simply put, with other first basemen in the system and no DH in most games, he didn’t have a great deal of utility for the Rockies. In Toronto, he’ll have more of an opportunity. The Sally League is a long way from the majors and McCormick Field in Asheville is the second-best home-run park in the league (behind Greensboro), but Spanberger’s shown enough raw power that he merits some attention. For a relief pitcher in whom you’ve only invested a couple of million dollars, that’s good enough.


Scouting the Rays’ Return for Matt Andriese

The Rays traded RHP Matt Andriese to the Diamondbacks this afternoon for minor leaguers Michael Perez and Brian Shaffer.

Tampa Bay has targeted basically two kinds of player in trades over the past few years — specifically, big-league-ready types who either (a) could function as a starting pitcher or (b) feature contact skills and the capacity to play an up-the-middle defensive position. Perez, a catcher, fits the latter category and has made strides this year defensively, moving from a 50 to a 55 behind the plate, driven by his improvement metrically in the framing department. There isn’t much in the way of publicly available minor-league framing numbers, and there’s some variance even with the big leagues ones, but multiple front-office sources described Perez’s figures this year as “elite.” He’s a definite hit-over-power type offensively and is seen as a future backup with just mistake power, but sometimes these types can turn into low-end regulars for a few years. He will likely be a 40+ FV in the coming update to THE BOARD, adding to Tampa Bay’s embarrassment of minor-league depth that was already supplemented earlier today.

Perez was the headliner here. Shaffer, meanwhile, is more of a generic depth arm. He was a sixth-rounder in 2017 out of Maryland and would occasionally show fringey stuff (87-91 mph) and sometimes more than that (90-93 mph with above-average life). His 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame is durable and he throws strikes, so any kind of improvement in the stuff department would make him a solid bet to turn into a back-end starter. He’s been mostly 89-92, touching 94 mph, this year with a slider that’s fringey to average and a changeup that’s a little better but mostly average. In today’s game, this is somewhere in the range of a sixth starter, swing man, innings-eating middle reliever or up/down fill arm, as indicated by the fact that Shaffer is still pitching in Low-A at nearly 22 years old. Shaffer will likely be a 35 or 35+ FV.


Rays Add Lefty Jalen Beeks to Deep System

Here are my very brief thoughts on Jalen Beeks, who was acquired by Tampa Bay from Boston in exchange for Nathan Eovaldi:

Beeks was ranked 6th in a bad Red Sox system entering the year and received a 45 FV grade from us as we thought he had passable control and a deep enough pitch mix to start. He proceeded to dominate the International League and had accumulated 117 strikeouts in 87.1 innings at the time of the trade.

We still have a 45 FV on Beeks, who has a fringe fastball in the 89-93-mph range, an above-average curveball, and an average changeup and cutter. Finding some way for the fastball to play is of paramount importance to Beeks’ ability to start, and it’s probably going to take heavier in-zone use of his curveball to keep hitters from sitting on a relatively hittable fastball. Tampa Bay’s pitchers have used their fastballs less than all other big leagues teams aside from the Yankees, so this seems likely to occur. Beeks projects as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and because we’re talking about a lefty with a good breaking ball, his injury-independent floor is that of a good bullpen piece.

You could argue this was Boston’s best realistic trade chip as none of the other 45 FV prospects in the org have really performed this year, and 50 FV prospects Michael Chavis (PED suspension) and Jay Groome (Tommy John) have other issues impacting their value.


Hall of Fame Induction Weekend 2018 Roundup

It’s somewhat lost in the buildup to the July 31 trade deadline, but this coming weekend is Hall of Fame Induction Weekend in Cooperstown, New York. Saturday, July 28 will feature the presentation of this year’s Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasters (Bob Costas) and the J.G. Taylor Spink Award for writers (Sheldon Ocker), as well as the Parade of Legends. Sunday, July 29 will feature the inductions of six former players, namely BBWAA honorees Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones, and Jim Thome, plus Modern Baseball Era honorees Jack Morris and Alan Trammell. Not since 1971 has the Hall inducted as many living honorees. For a full schedule of the festivities for June 27-30, see here.

If you’re among the many thousands of people making the pilgrimage to Cooperstown, you can purchase a signed copy of my book, The Cooperstown Casebook (which was released one year ago today; see Paul Swydan’s review for The Hardball Times as well as an excerpt from “Chapter 6: Blyleven, Morris, and the War on WAR”) and perhaps even talk a little baseball with me on Saturday afternoon. From 1 to 3 pm, I’ll be hawking my wares in front of Willis Monie Books at 139 Main St. Other authors will be signing there, as well, all weekend long.

Whether or not you buy a book, you can see the eight-minute spot I did discussing this year’s class and upcoming candidates with MLB Network’s Brian Kenny (filling in for Chris Russo) on Tuesday’s episode of High Heat:

For more of my yakkin’, I’ll also be part of an MLB Network roundtable on The Rundown on Friday at 2:45 pm ET and then on MLB Now from 4-5 pm.

Finally, if you want to read more about this year’s inductees, I’ve got lengthy, JAWS-flavored profiles of all six of them at SI.com: Guerrero, Hoffman, Jones, Morris, Thome, and Trammell.


Red Sox Acquire Nathan Eovaldi

Who trades players at 10 AM? The Red Sox, apparently, is who. That’s what they’ve done today, at least, picking up right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor-league pitcher Jalen Beeks.

Trading Eovaldi represents the successful culmination of a two-year strategy for the Rays, who signed him to a one-year, $2 million contract for a 2017 he was going to miss due to Tommy John surgery. A one-year option for $2 million gave the Rays a chance to get some serious upside in value for their patience, $4 million representing basically ashtray money when it comes to signing major-league-competent starting pitchers.

Eovaldi’s always been a bit of a puzzle, a pitcher who possessed a fastball that touched 100 mph but lacked the key to closing the deal and punching out batters, his breaking pitches never effectively complementing his velocity. Relying heavily on a cutter this year, however, Eovaldi has produced the highest strikeout rate of his career to date (23.7%). Eovaldi had fooled around with the pitch before, but this is the first time he’s had real success with the pitch, FanGraphs’ linear-weighted measure of pitch value gives him the 10th-most valuable cutter in baseball this season, ninth on a rate basic for pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi, Pitch Usage 2018
LHH Four-Seam Cutter Slider Curve Split
All Counts 43% 31% 1% 3% 23%
First Pitch 56% 30% 0% 7% 7%
Batter Ahead 40% 47% 4% 1% 8%
Even 47% 26% 0% 6% 21%
Pitcher Ahead 39% 25% 1% 1% 34%
Two Strikes 37% 21% 1% 1% 39%
RHH Four-Seam Cutter Slider Curve Split
All Counts 41% 26% 25% 0% 8%
First Pitch 45% 29% 26% 0% 0%
Batter Ahead 33% 47% 19% 0% 1%
Even 43% 28% 25% 0% 5%
Pitcher Ahead 42% 15% 28% 1% 14%
Two Strikes 38% 16% 26% 0% 21%
SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

Read the rest of this entry »


The Yankees’ Bullpen Is About to Get More Ridiculous

Reports suggest that Zach Britton has a new employer.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

The New York Yankees have the best bullpen in the game. Aroldis Chapman is great. David Robertson is having a typical year for David Robertson. Dellin Betances seems to have recovered his form and is, once again, pitching like a relief ace. Chad Green and Jonathan Holder — even A.J. Cole and Adam Warren — have pitched well.

The Yankees don’t need bullpen help. Yet, if rumors are true, they are about to get it anyway. Jon Heyman reports tonight that New York and Baltimore are close to finalizing a trade that would send Zach Britton to the Bronx.

As for whom the Orioles will receive, Ken Rosenthal reports that right-handed pitching prospect Dillon Tate is expected to headline the deal. Sources tell both Joel Sherman and Heyman that the deal will look like this:

Yankees receive:

Orioles receive:

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cincinnati Reds Baseball Operations

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Data Scientist

Reports to: Manager of Baseball Analytics

Description: The Data Scientist will work with the Manager of Baseball Analytics to implement the department’s research and development efforts within new and existing applications. The Reds envision the person in this position to play a major role in the creation of new baseball analytics concepts with the ultimate goal of enhancing on-field performance.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities:

  • Design, develop, test, implement and maintain predictive models and metrics utilizing appropriate tools and techniques.
  • Work with the Reds Baseball Analytics and Systems staff to integrate new statistical analyses, models and data visualizations into existing and new applications.
  • Keep up to date on new predictive modeling techniques and evaluate their potential for application to baseball data sets.
  • Collaborate with Major League Operations, Player Development and Sports Science departments to design and implement statistical analyses.

Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities:

  • 3+ years of experience in computational field, such as Statistics, Biostatistics, Data Science, Mathematics, Engineering, Quantitative Social Sciences or Analytics.
  • Strong knowledge of statistical analysis and predictive modeling.
  • Demonstrated experience with statistical software (e.g. R, Python) and database querying (SQL).
  • Ability to communicate effectively with all aspects of Baseball Operations, Scouting and Player Development staffs.
  • Experience with Bayesian statistics. (Preferable, but not required)
  • Understanding of typical baseball data structures.
  • Knowledge of current baseball research, traditional baseball statistics and strategy.

Work Environment:

  • Remote working accommodations are available.
  • Work is normally performed in a typical interior/office work environment.
  • Hours may periodically include nights, weekends and holidays.

Expectations:

  • Adhere to Cincinnati Reds Organization Policies and Procedures.
  • Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds Organization.
  • Performs duties as workload necessitates.
  • Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
  • Meet Department productivity standards.

To Apply:
To apply, please visit this site.

Position: Baseball Analytics Developer

Reports to: Manager of Baseball Analytics

Job Purpose: The Analytics Developer will develop and maintain software to assist with the dissemination of analytics information throughout Baseball Operations.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities:

  • Design, develop, test, implement and maintain software solutions.
  • Work with the Reds Baseball Analytics and Systems staff to integrate new statistical analyses, models and data visualizations into applications.
  • Keep up to date on new software tools and evaluate their potential for internal use.
  • Work closely with Major League staff to convert requirements into usable applications.

Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities:

  • BS degree or equivalent experience in a computational science or technical field with 3 years of development experience.
  • Proficient in web development languages/standards including HTML5, JavaScript and CSS.
  • Demonstrated experience with databases and query development/optimization.
  • Knowledge of UI/UX on web and mobile platforms.
  • Ability to communicate with coaching and baseball operation staffs to understand their software needs.
  • Understanding of typical baseball data structures, knowledge of current baseball research and traditional baseball statistics and strategy.
  • Experience with statistical software in R or Python is a plus.
  • Ability to be a self-starter and manage ones workload to meet deadlines.
  • Demonstrated ability to quickly adapt to a variety of programming environments (frontend, backend, Windows, Linux) and identify the best tools and libraries for new tasks.

Work Environment:

  • Work is normally performed in a typical interior/office work environment.
  • Remote working accommodations are available for strong candidates.
  • Hours may include nights, weekends and holidays.

Expectations:

  • Adhere to Cincinnati Reds Organization Policies and Procedures.
  • Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds Organization.
  • Performs duties as workload necessitates.
  • Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
  • Meet Department productivity standards.

To Apply:
To apply, please visit this site.

The Cincinnati Reds are an Equal Opportunity Employer. It is the policy of the Cincinnati Reds to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion or creed, sex, age, disability, citizenship status, marital status, genetic predisposition or carrier status, sexual orientation or any other characteristic protected by law.


Cleveland Acquires Brad Hand, Adam Cimber for Francisco Mejia

The Manny Machado trade will not be the only big deal to go down during the All-Star break. Cleveland, in desperate need of relief pitching with Cody Allen struggling and Andrew Miller hurt, have made quite the move to shore up their bullpen in one fell swoop. Jon Heyman was the first to report that Brad Hand would be heading from San Diego to Cleveland in the deal. Ken Rosenthal added that reliever Adam Cimber would also be on the move. As for the return, The Padres are set to receive catching prospect Francisco Mejia. The deal looks like this:

Cleveland receives:

San Diego receives:

The 28-year-old Hand is in the middle of another very good season. After totaling 3.2 WAR across nearly 170 innings the last two years, the lefty has put up an ERA and FIP right around three this season. He’s struck out 35% of batters and walked just 8% as the Padres closer. Hand signed a contract extension before the season started that will pay him a bit over $1 million the rest of this season and $13.5 million over the following two years, with a team option of $10 million for 2020 that can be bought out for one million dollars.

Read the rest of this entry »


Manny Machado Is Now Obviously a Dodger

Manny Machado has to get a new uniform from someone.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

After a few days of something more substantive than speculation, the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers appear finally to have conducted official business with each other. Eduardo A. Encina and Ken Rosenthal outline the particulars of that business via social-media platform twitter dot com:

At the very center of the trade, of course, is Manny Machado, one of the best major leaguers currently authoring one of his best major-league seasons. Machado will help the Dodgers address a shortstop position that has created uncertainty for the club ever since starter Corey Seager was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery at the beginning of May. Machado is projected for slightly more than two wins over the rest of season — about a win more than Chris Taylor (who’s received most of the starts at short in Seager’s absence) and also about a win more than a combination of Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, and Joc Pederson (who’ve received most of the center-field starts with Taylor at short).

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Rockies Baseball R&D Data Engineer

Position: Entry Level Data Engineer, Baseball Research and Development

Description:

The Rockies are looking for a full-time Entry Level Data Engineer to join their Research and Development team. The successful candidate will assist with the expansion and optimization of their data warehouse and data pipeline architecture, with a focus on collecting, cleaning, transforming, managing and validating data using distributed computing and storage systems.

Responsibilities and Duties:

  • Create, maintain and optimize data ETL/ELT pipelines
  • Documentation of data/pipelines
  • Ensure the ingestion of data and errors are handled without interruption
  • Process and securely store extremely sensitive data for callback and future use
  • Prepare distributed, disjoint, multi-formatted data sets for data scientists
  • Research and investigate new and interesting datasets to include in our data warehouse
  • Perform quantitative research related to baseball strategy and player evaluation
  • Collaborate with coaches, scouts and baseball operations staff to suggest process improvements

Requirements:

Education and Work Experience

  • Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science/Engineering
  • Candidates still in school (junior or senior level) with extensive work towards such degree will be considered
  • Understanding of relational databases such as MySQL, PostgreSQL or SQL Server
  • Ability to effectively use multiple programming languages
  • Knowledge and understanding of baseball and baseball statistics

Functional Skills

  • Ability to work evenings and weekends required
  • Passion for the intersection of baseball and data
  • Passion for quality data
  • Strong organizational skills and ability to self-start
  • Strong intellectual curiosity
  • Desire to learn and contribute
  • Ability to work in a collaborative and open team environment
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office

To Apply:
Qualified candidates should send their letter of interest and resume to BaseballJobs@rockies.com no later than July 29th, 2018.