Whether you’re a Washington, DC-area resident or a visitor who will be in town for the All-Star Futures Game, you’re invited to the great Politics and Prose Bookstore on Saturday, July 14 at 6 pm, where ESPN’s Keith Law and I will discuss and sign our respective books, Smart Baseball (William Morrow, 2017, now out in paperback) and The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017). During my years at Baseball Prospectus, I was part of half-a-dozen bookstore events at P&P, and they always drew great crowds for engaging discussions and enjoyable interactions with readers, and I have no doubt that this event will deliver the same.

As a prospect-focused senior baseball writer for ESPN Insider, a former member of the Toronto Blue Jays’ front office, and an alumnus of Baseball Prospectus, Keith is uniquely positioned to explain the evolution of talent evaluation within baseball and to examine the trends that are shaping the field in the 21st century. Whether you’re a long-time stathead or a newcomer to this little corner of the game, you’ll enjoy his book (full title Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball) and you can order a signed, personalized copy ahead of time here.

The Cooperstown Casebook is the culmination of a decade and a half of my research and writing about the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum — the forces that shaped the Hall and its honorees, and the battles to recognize and honor the game’s greats and its history, with an emphasis on how advanced statistics have changed our understanding of what makes a Hall of Famer. You can read plenty more about the book here and at my publisher’s page as well as Paul Swydan’s review, and there’s an exceprt from my chapter about Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris here. To order a signed, personalized copy to pick up at the event, click here.

This event is free to attend with no reservation required. Seating is available on a first come, first served basis.

Politics & Prose Bookstore
Saturday, July 14, 6 pm
5015 Connecticut Ave NW
Washington, DC 20008
Map

Dodgers infielder Max Muncy is an instrument of the Absurd, nor is there much evidence to the contrary. He owns, for example, a name that has traditionally been the province exclusively of mid-century private detectives. He’s also a former fifth-round pick who entered the season with roughly -1 WAR and yet who, somehow, is currently leading his club by that same measure. Muncy’s bona fides wherein the ridiculous is concerned are beyond reproach.

It should come as no surprise, then, that Max Muncy has once again had a rendezvous with the improbable. Batting in the first inning tonight against the Cubs, Muncy drove a fastball from Kyle Hendricks to center field — over the center-field wall, in fact. Instead of remaining over the center-field wall, however, what Muncy’s home run did instead was to re-enter the field of play and strike innocent bystander Albert Almora on the head. Did it kill or even just injure Almora? Signs point to “No.” But did it cause him a moment’s indignity? Yes, not unlike the sort one experiences just by living.

On Monday, Washington sent a three-player package of middling talents back to Kansas City in exchange for reliever Kelvin Herrera. Those prospects are 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, CF Blake Perkins and RHP Yohanse Morel.

Perkins and Gutierrez were each on our Nationals team write-up as 40 FVs. Gutierrez has a strong contact/defense profile. (He was bad at third base in my extended look at him last Fall and received some playing time at first in anticipation of Ryan Zimmerman’s continued health problems.) He lacks corner-worthy power, however. Perkins is a glove-first center-field prospect with premium strike-zone awareness (he has a 12% career walk rate) and very little power.

We have each of them evaluated as big-league role players. Gutierrez is probably a low-end regular or bench/platoon option at third base and, down the line, a couple other positions. If he alters his approach in a way that coaxes out more of his average raw power in games, he could be more than that. Perkins has a bit more variability because he hasn’t been switch-hitting for very long (he only started in 2016) and might yet grow into some competency as a left-handed hitter, but his lack of in-game power might also undercut his walk rate at upper levels of the minors — and in the big leagues, too — because pitchers are going to attack him without fear that he’ll do any real damage on his own. He also might become such a great defensive center fielder that he plays every day despite providing little offensive value.

Read the rest of this entry »

As I noted earlier today, Orioles slugger Chris Davis, who through the Orioles’ first 67 games has already dug himself a -1.9 WAR hole, is on pace for the worst season ever by that measure, -4.6 WAR. At the other end of the spectrum, Mike Trout is having not just the best season of his already amazing career, but one for the pantheon. His 5.7 WAR through the Angels’ first 69 games prorates to 13.4 over a full season, which would rank third all-time, behind the 1923 and 1921 seasons of Babe Ruth (15.0 and 13.9 WAR, respectively), making Trout’s season “only” the best in the past 95 years. What a slacker.

Even if that’s the case, Trout and Davis could combine for the largest WAR differential between two position players in one season, a chasm wider than the Grand Canyon. Below are the 20 largest single-season gaps, with some player-seasons, such as Ruth’s 1920, included more than once. I’ve also included two hypothetical end-of-season figures for Trout and Davis: their WAR differential based both on current pace and also our Depth Chart projections.

Seven separate Ruth seasons are represented here, along with three apiece from Hornsby and Bonds. Aside from the projection of Trout, only one other post-World War II player besides Bonds is represented above on the good side of things, namely A-Rod in 2002. That’s just one small set of data points related to the fact that the spread of talent between the best and worst players is much less now than it was 75 or 100 years ago and that leagues today are stronger than the ones of decades past.

Ruth hit “only” 41 homers during his 15.0-WAR 1923 season, but via his .393/.545/.764 (231 wRC+) line, he set career highs in the first two categories even while somehow failing to win a batting title. (The Tigers’ Harry Heilmann hit .403.) His dance partner from the 1923 season was Collins, a light-hitting outfielder who batted .231/.265/.289 for a lousy 43 wRC+ that year and was six runs below average on defense. To the extent that Collins has any other claim to fame, it’s apparently that he was the only player in the White Sox’ starting lineup for Game One of the World Series who didn’t wind up either banned for life as part of the Black Sox scandal or elected to the Hall of Fame (as Eddie Collins and Ray Schalk were). Ruth’s 1931 season (.373/.495/.700, 46 HR) is paired with Levey, the Browns shortstop who actually had an even worse season (1933, -4.0 WAR) that represents the record Davis is trying to avoid.

As for Trout, to date, the largest WAR gap of his career is 13.9 WAR, from 2013, when he set a career best with 10.1 WAR and Yuniesky Betancourt turned in a -1.8 WAR clunker. Even if Davis didn’t play another game this year, Trout would only need to add another 4.5 WAR over the Angels’ 93 remaining games to surpass that previous high. While he and Davis don’t have much margin for error in surpassing Ruth and Collins, it still boggles the mind that we could be seeing such extremes in the same season.

In April, I discussed two then-pending cases before the U.S. Supreme Court challenging Major League Baseball’s long-standing exemption from antitrust law. Since that time, the Court had had the two appeals scheduled for consideration on three occasions, only to reschedule its deliberation each time. Although it wasn’t immediately clear why the Court was repeatedly postponing its consideration of the two appeals, this rather unusual delay raised the possibility that several of the justices were potentially interested in reconsidering baseball’s controversial antitrust exemption.

Despite any possible behind-the-scenes maneuvering, the delay ultimately proved to be for naught, as the Court announced on Monday that it was declining to hear either appeal, effectively ending the two cases. This means that MLB will continue to operate largely outside the scope of federal antitrust law for the foreseeable future.

As is normally the case, the Court did not explain on Monday why it was denying the two appeals. The Court did reveal one piece of potentially relevant information this morning, however, noting that Chief Justice Roberts recused himself from any consideration of the appeal in the Wyckoff v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball case. It’s not at all clear why Chief Justice Roberts opted not to participate in the Court’s deliberation of the case.

Read the rest of this entry »

Like half my social-media feed, I woke up to the awful news of the suicide of Anthony Bourdain, whose work I have loved going all the way back to the 1999 New Yorker piece that became Kitchen Confidential, his first book. The chef-turned-writer-turned-television-journalist had a remarkable gift for illuminating any corner of the world he wandered via A Cook’s Tour, No Reservations, The Layover, and Parts Unknown, bringing a rare and genuine empathy, compassion and gusto along with him. His career-changing discovery of his writing voice was among the many that inspired me as I embarked upon my own change from graphic design to writing about baseball.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just a few quick notes on the prospects Kansas City received from Arizona today, in exchange for CF Jon Jay. Those minor leaguers are RHP Elvis Luciano and LHP Gabe Speier.

Luciano is a live-armed 18-year-old Dominican righty who spent most of 2017 in the DSL, then came to the U.S. in August for a month of Rookie-level ball, then instructional league. I saw him during instructs when he was 90-94 with an average curveball, below-average changeup, and below command, especially later in his outing as he tired. He was an honorable-mention prospect on the D-backs list.

His velocity has mostly remained in that range this spring, topping out at 96. Luciano’s delivery has been changed to alter his glove’s location as he lifts his leg, probably to help him clear his front side a little better. He’s still had strike-throwing issues and might be a reliever, but he has a live arm and can spin a breaking ball. Though 18, Luciano’s frame doesn’t have much projection, so while he might grow into some velocity as he matures, it probably won’t be a lot. He’s an interesting, long-term flier who reasonably projects as a back-end starter.

As for Speier, he’s repeating Double-A. He’s a sinker/slider guy, up to 95 with an average slide piece. He projects as a bullpen’s second lefty and should be viable in that type of role soon.

If you read FanGraphs regularly, you’re probably already familiar with Saberseminar, the annual weekend event that puts you up close with some of baseball’s top coaches, statisticians, scouts, doctors, and scientists. You can view last year’s speakers here. It’s always an incredible lineup.

This year’s seminar will take place August 4 and 5 in Boston, MA. And while the exact agenda is still being finalized – baseball folks are so busy! – the organizers have shared a few highlights, which include:

• A panel with many of the authors of the recent report commissioned by Major League Baseball to explore changes to the baseball and MLB’s increased home run rate
• Ex-major league player Fernando Perez
• Top talent evaluators from the Red Sox front office
• Over 15 research presentations, including several from Japanese baseball
• The presentation of Saberseminar’s first-ever scholarship awards to women and minority students aspiring to front office roles

Early ticket pricing ends today, May 31st, with regular ticket sales starting June 1. Tickets, including discounted student tickets, can be purchased here.

And as if a weekend of nerdy baseball fun isn’t exciting enough, you’ll also be supporting a wonderful cause, as proceeds from the event will be donated to the Angioma Alliance.

We’ll keep you posted as the agenda is finalized and we confirm which FanGraphs writers will be in attendance.

In the meantime, take advantage of the early ticket pricing, and start looking forward to a great event!

Whatever else you might say about Jerry Dipoto, he’s demonstrated an indomitable desire to engage in trades. Big trades, little trades, all sorts of trades. And with injuries and Robinson Canó’s suspension forcing Dee Gordon to move back to the infield (before going on the disabled list himself), and with an extra $11 million of loose change suddenly freed up by Canó’s absence, it seemed likely that Dipoto would ride again, provided he could find a willing partner.

This afternoon, Dipoto found his man, or men rather. Per Marc Topkin.

#Rays have traded Span and Colome to #Mariners

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 25, 2018

#Rays get back Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero from #Mariners

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 25, 2018

The Mariners will also receive $4.75 million in cash considerations, so not all the Canó money is spent. The deal makes all the sense in the world for the Mariners. Denard Span and his heretofore 114 wRC+ will provide additional depth in a suddenly thin outfield, with Dipoto indicating that the initial plan is for Span to spend his time in left field, while Guillermo Heredia and Mitch Haniger roam center and right, respectively. Ben Gamel will remain in the mix for the left-field spot. Span also gives the team additional options in center should Heredia falter against right-handed pitching.

Alex Colomé, meanwhile, reinforces a bullpen that, outside of closer Edwin Diaz, has been shaky at times. James Pazos and Nick Vincent have pitched their way to a respectable FIPs, but offseason signing Juan Nicasio’s velocity has declined slightly, as has his effectiveness. According to Pitch Info, his average fastball has climbed back closer to 95 mph rather than the 91 mph Mariners fans were seeing in spring, but he’s still lost a tick, which may help to explain the increase in his home-run rate. Colomé’s season got off to its own rough start, marred by inexact command that lead to an 11.7% walk rate, but May has gone considerably better, with his FIP dropping to 1.35. He represents an additional option in late innings and beyond making the ball more likely to get to Diaz, should also allow the Mariners to rest Diaz a bit more.

Tampa’s side is bit stranger. For a team with the Rays’ pitching strategy, it seems odd to trade a good closer, an oddity that isn’t lessened by the acquisition of Wilmer Font. The Rays do get Andrew Moore and prospect Tommy Romero, which isn’t nothing. As with any set of young arms, there’s always the risk that they’ll bloom into something Seattle regrets giving up. Moore pitched big-league innings with middling results last year, and started the season in Double-A, but he’s still thought to have back of the rotation potential. That isn’t useless, but it also isn’t likely to help the Mariners win right now. And as Jerry and this trade show, winning right now is what Seattle is interested in.

Position: Chief Executive Officer

Location: Phoenix, AZ

Introduction
The Society for American Baseball Research was founded in Cooperstown, NY in 1971 and has grown to more than 6,000 members around the world. SABR members organize themselves in local chapters, research committees, and virtual communities of interest. A 501(c)3 charitable corporation, SABR’s annual budget approaches $1 million with revenues coming from events, dues, licensing, and donations. SABR’s office is located in the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University in downtown Phoenix. The website, SABR.org, is a central organizing tool and repository for the collective work of Society members. SABR’s Analytics Conference in early March and Annual Convention in the summer are flagship events for the baseball community.

Role Summary
As Chief Executive Officer of SABR, you’ll be a leader on many different fronts, ensuring no two days will be the same. As a natural innovator, you’ll drive growth initiatives and navigate the continuously evolving dynamics of the baseball industry. Your people skills will empower you to effectively interface with the Board of Directors, guide your staff, and interact with the membership at large. Your strong analytical and problem-solving skills will keep operations running smoothly and facilitate the implementation of new initiatives. As a confident communicator, you’ll shine as the face of SABR at events large and small.

Duties

• Lead a high-profile organization, both internally and externally, by serving its members, leading its staff, and representing its interests in public and private dealings within the baseball industry.
• Ensure daily operations adhere to established organization bylaws, policies, and legal guidelines. Develop and manage an annual budget and regularly communicate financial and operational status to the Board of Directors.
• Continuously enhance the Annual Convention, Analytics Conference, and other events that are critical to SABR’s prestige and revenue.
• Cultivate a strong charitable giving program.
• Interact regularly with membership, particularly with committee chairs and chapter leadership, and promote best practices within those segments of the Society. Develop programs to encourage membership and deepen the connection among members.
• Promote an inclusive environment that is welcoming to members and stakeholders of all backgrounds.
• Develop collaborative external relationships and partnerships that enhance the organization and its ability to deliver experiences and opportunities for its membership.
• Sustain, encourage, and expand SABR’s technology-based outreach on the web and in social media.
• Recruit, hire, and supervise staff as well as motivate and promote the development of the staff, committee members, and volunteers.
• Sustain a strong publications program with a focus on both contribution and consumption by members.
• Lead the development of SABR’s strategic vision.
• Travel frequently to advance the above objectives.

Requirements

• Be a professional, capable, energetic, and positive leader. Have a reputation for high professional and ethical standards, be enthusiastic about working with a diverse staff, and be collaborative with a strong Board of Directors.
• Have experience with event planning.
• Have excellent written and verbal communication skills, including the ability to address large audiences.
• Have relevant experience and education, and a strong interest in baseball.
• Demonstrate a mastery of one or more social media tools and ability to leverage other internet-based technologies.

Ideal Candidate Profile

• Have an established network within the baseball community.
• Possess an entrepreneurial spirit with a proven track record of developing and cultivating industry partnerships.
• Have knowledge of nonprofit management along with familiarity of employment and intellectual property law.
• Have experience in strategic planning, board and community relations, personnel supervision, and financial management.
• Have experience managing or implementing information technology enhancements, projects or systems.
• Have experience in public speaking, public relations, and with commercial media, especially television.
• Hold an advanced degree in a related field plus many years of relevant experience.

Application Materials

• Resume.
• 3-5 references.
• Cover letter or statement describing your vision for the Society.

Compensation and Benefits

• Cash compensation is a mix of base salary and annual incentive pay.
• Eligible for standard SABR employee benefits.

To Apply
All materials should be emailed to careers@sabr.org. Applications will begin being read on June 11, 2018. Applications will be accepted on a rolling basis until the position is filled.