Justin Upton Is Staying in Anaheim

Billy Eppler does not care about baseball writers. A year ago, the day after the World Series ended, he traded for Cameron Maybin to shore up his outfield. Today, the day after the World Series ended, he gave Justin Upton a new contract to convince him to not use his opt-out clause and become a free agent, once again improving his outfield.

The deal seems pretty straight forward; in addition to the $88 million he had remaining on his contract over the next four years if he didn’t opt-out, the Angels added an $18 million guarantee for a fifth year, pushing his new guaranteed total to $106 million over five years. Given what the market is paying for wins these days, this effectively values Upton as something like a +3 WAR player expected to age fairly normally.

Obviously, he was a lot better than that this year, putting up his second best season by WAR in his career, but since signing his last free agent contract, he’s totaled +6.3 WAR over two seasons, so a +3 WAR per year estimate seems about right. Upton might not be the steadiest performer around, but given his base of skills, a little over $100 million for five years seems about right.

The Angels just saw a division rival win the World Series, and the Astros are going to enjoy all the benefits that comes with that over the next few years, making them an even tougher opponent to overcome. But with Upton in the fold at a fair rate, they have a better shot at capitalizing on Mike Trout’s prime than they would have had Upton hit the open market.


New Effectively Wild Heat Map T-Shirts Are Here!

Both the Effectively Wild podcast and community are marvelous. And with the help of that community, we have a new t-shirt for sale.

This is the first two-sided t-shirt in FanGraphs history, and it’s a doozy. As has become a FanGraphs custom, the t-shirt was designed by Aaron Gershman of Creative Sentencing, who you should absolutely hire for your next design project. But the cool part about this shirt is that it was made with input from the EW community. Let’s take a look at the broad strokes:

The back, as you can see, is a heat map. But it’s not just any heat map. It’s a heat map of all the things that are (or are not) discussed on the podcast. The items in the red boxes are discussed frequently, those in the white boxes are discussed rarely, and in the blue are things that are never discussed. Let’s take a closer look at the heat map, shall we?

Things like actual baseball games may never be discussed on the pod, but with plenty of Matt Albers and Ned Garver talk, you really can’t go wrong.

These wonderful t-shirts are now available for sale for $30. We have to charge a little more for these since they are two-sided, but we think it’s still a pretty great value. We hope you will too, and will continue to support Effectively Wild, which has been a great addition to the FanGraphs family!

(In other t-shirt news, the “Do You Go To FanGraphs At All?” t-shirts are also back in stock. Get ’em while they’re hot!)


Job Posting: Driveline Baseball Quantitative Analyst

Position: Quantitative Analyst – Sports Science and Sabermetrics, R&D Group

Location: Seattle

Description:
Driveline Baseball is looking for a highly-skilled quantitative analyst to join our growing Research and Development team in Seattle. Driveline Baseball secures contracts with multiple MLB teams year-round, providing external amateur draft reports, player development assistance, and on-site implementation of our physical products we manufacture and develop in-house. Driveline Baseball also trains hundreds of elite collegiate and professional hitters and pitchers in their three warehouse complexes in Kent, Wash. (20 minutes south of downtown Seattle).

The ideal candidate will have interest in both sports science and sabermetrics, with a desire to broaden their horizons into other fields we are pursuing, such as logistics, manufacturing, and rapid prototyping. Candidates will not be judged based on their formal education background, or lack thereof; the best candidates to come through Driveline Baseball have a varied and colorful history with a portfolio of failed, half-completed, and blocked sports projects of all types. Self-starters, initiative-takers, and those with a healthy skepticism of authority fit in well in the R&D department of Driveline Baseball.

Unlike MLB organizations, at Driveline Baseball the members of the R&D team work directly and regularly with minor and major league players. You will be communicating directly with big leaguers who will depend on your statistical and quantitative reports to improve their training methods and their pitch selection. You will also deal directly with front office executives and will be expected to take a managerial role in directing quantitative interns and organizing third-party vendors within months of joining our team.

This isn’t your average quantitative analyst position where you’d be siloed in the front office and seen but not heard – you’ll be on the lines of battle and you’ll be crushing R code at a standing desk. Read the rest of this entry »


George Springer Had a Change of Heart

George Springer hit the game-winning home run last night, and it was — well, look, these aren’t my words. I’ll let someone else express it.

It held up. Unlike previous home runs, it held up, and the Astros won 7-6. And for Springer, it was a game of redemption, because he’d entered in a slump. The playoffs make it hard to figure out a player’s trajectory — when they began, Springer went 7-for-17 against the Red Sox. But he was 3-for-26 against the Yankees, and in Game 1 against the Dodgers, Springer was fitted for a golden sombrero. Springer was at least perceived to be in a rut, and one could argue he might’ve been over-swinging. Now, Springer often swings hard, but here’s a selection from his four Game 1 at-bats.

Fast-forward to Game 2’s 11th inning. This is all I really want to show you. Springer came up with a man on base, and the first two pitches he saw from Brandon McCarthy were balls. Then he saw the same pitch two times in a row. McCarthy threw sliders, sliders that were probably supposed to be further away than they were. But, in any case, at 2-and-0 and 2-and-1, McCarthy threw a couple of low sliders, and Springer swung at them both. Here are the locations, in case you thought I was exaggerating.

Same pitch. Two swings. The first one was a foul ball. The second one led to the decisive line-drive dinger. Let’s look at those swings. Here’s the first!

And here’s the second.

Of course, the swings look similar — hitters have their own hitting mechanics, just as pitchers have their own pitching mechanics. But the follow-through can be a reliable tell, and so, here’s the first, shown as a screenshot.

That’s Springer with, I don’t know, the full wrap. Springer has been a hard swinger since before he even emerged in the major leagues, so there’s nothing astonishing about seeing him swing with such force. But contrast that picture with the next one. Here’s the aftermath of Springer’s second swing at the same low-middle slider.

At 2-and-0, Springer tried to beat the crap out of the ball. At 2-and-1, he cut down on his swing and tried to go back up the middle. The count was obviously different, but it’s not like this was Springer’s two-strike approach, because he wasn’t there yet. You see in the upper image that Springer’s shoulders are completely rotated, and his lower body is turned to face left field. In the lower image, Springer’s lower body is turned more toward center-left, and his shoulders are stopped short of a full rotation. It’s not like Springer was just trying to slap at the pitch — slap swings don’t go for home runs to that area. But, between pitches, Springer changed his mindset, and took a different swing at the same pitch. The twist is that Springer cut down on his swing and wound up with the best possible result. That’s baseball in 2017 for you.

It’s not often baseball gives you virtually identical consecutive pitches. It makes for a convenient comparison, especially when you don’t have a two-strike count involved. George Springer came into the game in a slump, his powerful whack having failed to deliver its usual results. In extra innings, he cut down on that power a little bit. The ball sailed out of the yard. Funny sport.


Job Posting: Colorado Rockies Baseball Research & Development Full Stack Developer

Position: Colorado Rockies Baseball Research & Development Full Stack Developer

Location: Denver

Description:
The Colorado Rockies are currently seeking a full-time Full Stack Developer within the Baseball Research and Development Department. This individual will be a member of the Baseball Research and Development team and will assist in the continued development of the Rockies’ proprietary Web Application along with the maintenance and development of proprietary databases and APIs. This position requires strong development skills and experience as well as a demonstrated ability for independent curiosity and a commitment to excellence while working within a team.
Read the rest of this entry »


Job Postings: Minnesota Twins Baseball Operations Internships

Position: Minnesota Twins Baseball Operations Internships

Location: Minneapolis

Description:
The Minnesota Twins are seeking interns for three different positions:

  1. Intern, Baseball Operations: March 2018 through October 2018
  2. Intern, Baseball Operations-Research and Development: March 2018 through October 2018
  3. Intern, Baseball Operations (Summer Internship): Mid-May/Early June 2018 through Late August/Early September 2018

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Something Has Gotten Into Yasiel Puig

This is classified as an InstaGraphs post. That means it’s short. For a variety of reasons, we don’t put up InstaGraphs posts much anymore, but every so often there’s a clear opportunity. I don’t have that much to say here about Yasiel Puig. I just want to show you an image.

As the Dodgers have reached the World Series, Puig has been a major contributor, batting .414 in the playoffs with a wRC+ of 210. He’s struck out just three times, and he’s done that while drawing twice as many walks. Now, let me give you some quick background. Puig has always been pretty aggressive. In 2013, he swung at an above-average rate of first pitches. In 2014, he swung at an above-average rate of first pitches. Same thing happened in 2015. Same thing happened in 2016 and then again in 2017. Puig, historically, has liked to go after the first pitch he’s seen. That’s neither good nor bad on its own; it’s just a thing. But now! Now, look at this.

This shows Puig’s entire career. This is Puig’s rolling-average first-pitch-swing rate, over progressive spans of 50 plate appearances.

It’s plummeted almost to nothing. Already, in 2017, Puig appeared slightly more patient, but now he’s far lower than ever. Puig has batted 35 times in the playoffs. He’s swung at the first pitch only twice. The first pitch has counted as a strike 37% of the time. During the season, that rate was 59%. And, in the playoffs, Puig has been ahead in the count for 45% of all the pitches he’s seen. During the season, that rate was 30%. Puig has the highest playoff rate out of anyone. It’s Yasiel Puig who’s most working the count.

As mentioned, Puig has gone after the first pitch just two times out of 35 in the playoffs. But this seemingly didn’t start right then. Over Puig’s final five regular-season games, he went after the first pitch one time out of 16. He’d gone after four of the previous 16 first pitches, and five of the previous 16 first pitches. Puig’s first-pitch aggressiveness slowed almost to a halt. And, interestingly enough, right before Puig started taking way more first pitches, he was benched for disciplinary reasons. Dave Roberts was annoyed with him. Through September 23, Puig hadn’t drawn a walk in 11 straight starts. Then he was benched. He drew three walks over the last five games, and then the playoffs happened. The discipline has carried over.

I don’t want to suggest that, all of a sudden, Yasiel Puig has a Joey Votto-like approach. I don’t think Puig has one of the best eyes in baseball. But, abruptly, roughly one month ago, Puig stopped swinging so aggressively, especially early on. He’s taken nearly every first pitch, and to this point it’s worked to his benefit. If only temporarily, the Dodgers might’ve gotten through to him. Ideally this would last forever, but, more realistically, it would be nice if it lasted another week and a half. When Puig is in control of his own zone, there’s not much he can’t do.


Clayton Kershaw Has Brought His Experiment Back

A few hours from now, Clayton Kershaw will take the ball in Chicago, hoping to help the Dodgers move on to the World Series. Even though the Dodgers lost last night, being able to turn now to Kershaw makes everything better, as he still deserves the benefit of the doubt, any recent struggles aside. Now, I want to take only a couple minutes of your time. Kershaw has already started once in this series. He made Javier Baez make this face.

That’s Baez’s expression after striking out looking. Did you know that it’s possible for Javier Baez to strike out looking? Kershaw made it happen for just the ninth time in 2017. And while it’s possible Baez could’ve been thinking about any number of things — or about nothing at all — maybe he was simply caught off guard. Because Kershaw showed him a little two-strike twist.

Here are two screenshots. The lower one is from the pitch you just watched. The upper one is from the pitch immediately preceding it.

Facing Baez, with the count 2-and-2, Kershaw changed his arm slot. He didn’t go completely sidearm, but considering that Kershaw is usually very much over-the-top, what you’re seeing is a drop-down ambush. Kershaw showed it to Baez. In the same game, he went to it two other times. This is the Rich Hill inspiration. Every so often, Hill will drop down, himself, and Kershaw thought it was a neat trick. So he’s folded it in, from time to time.

I wrote about this in June. Kershaw introduced the drop-down slot late in 2016, and here’s a summary of how it worked at first. When Kershaw dropped down last year, he threw exclusively fastballs. This year he’s mixed in a few breaking balls. He threw one to David Peralta in the NLDS.

But here’s what I find most interesting. We knew last year Kershaw was trying this out. We knew earlier this year he’d brought it back. Then it…it just quietly went away. It’s only recently come back again. Here are all 29 of Kershaw’s 2017 appearances, showing the number of pitches in each game thrown from the alternate angle.

There was nothing, then there was a flurry. Over a streak of seven starts, Kershaw dropped down a total of 35 times. But with the 35th attempt, Kershaw allowed a home run to Jay Bruce. And then the experiment disappeared. Nothing, for eight games in a row. Then a one-off, followed by another three games of nothing. Then the playoffs began. Kershaw dropped down twice against the Diamondbacks, and he dropped down thrice in his first game against the Cubs. It’s back, just in the nick of time. Maybe that’s an exaggeration. Forget the second part. But, it’s back, anyway.

It’s still not clear if this is actually a successful tactic. When Kershaw drops down, he doesn’t become a strikeout machine. But this is Clayton Kershaw, and we’re in the playoffs, so I’d say this qualifies as automatically interesting. And it’s another thing for you to watch for tonight, as Kershaw tries to last as long as is possible. He’s already got his normal fastball, slider, and curve. He might throw in the odd second arm slot, just to keep the Cubs a little extra uncomfortable. It didn’t go so well in his last NLCS, but, this is a new playoffs, you know. Kershaw would like to forget about history.


“Do You Go To FanGraphs At All” T-Shirts Back in Stock

Last month, I wrote about a new t-shirt inspired by Daniel Murphy that we had put up for sale. It looks like this:

Here’s some more info on it, in case you don’t want to click through.

Like our other recent t-shirt creations, this shirt is a Canvas Jersey T-shirt, and as you can see, it comes in black. The black, to me, is notable, as we’ve never made a black t-shirt before. The shirt, also like our other recent t-shirt creations, was designed by Aaron Gershman of Creative Sentencing. You should definitely hire Aaron for your next design project.

In short order, the shirt sold out in several sizes. I am here to tell you that those shirts have been re-stocked, and are available for purchase in sizes from small to 2X. So, go forth and order!

Well, OK, this has been a pretty short post, so let me leave you with this nugget of info. Did you know that of the 139 players who have accumulated at least 500 plate appearances with the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals franchise, that Murphy is tied for first with Rusty Staub in terms of wRC+? Well, it’s true. They both have a 146 wRC+ in an Expos/Nationals uniform. Now, you know. And knowing is half the battle.

In closing, please buy our t-shirts. Thank you.


Job Posting: Chicago White Sox Baseball Analytics Fellowship

Position: Chicago White Sox Baseball Analytics Fellowship

Location: Chicago

Description:
The Chicago White Sox seek a passionate, knowledgeable, and dedicated individual with a desire to work in Baseball Operations. The fellowship will focus primarily on the numerical methods that drive Baseball Analytics, however there will be additional exposure to all facets of baseball operations. The fellowship is a paid position with a 10-12 month term.
Read the rest of this entry »