Leading 2-1 in the series, and 2-1 in game four, A.J. Hinch just summoned Justin Verlander from the bullpen to try and protect the lead and allow the Astros to finish the ALDS without having to go back to Houston for a winner-take-all finale. Given how good Chris Sale has looked for the Red Sox, and how dominant David Price was for Boston yesterday, it’s easy to see the appeal of putting your best arm on the mound and just riding him to victory.

But this decision just felt like an overreaction given the alternatives. Warming up next to Verlander was Will Harris. Will Harris isn’t a big name, but for the last few years, he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball.

Harris was his usual dominant self this year, allowing a .262 wOBA. He posted the lowest BB% and the highest K% of his career. He doesn’t have Verlander’s velocity, but his cutter/curveball combination has led to consistently dominant results.

But despite being warm, Hinch went with Verlander. I’m not going to pretend that Andrew Benintendi’s home run — hit just 90 mph, and a ball that Statcast gave just a 5% hit probability to — was the obvious outcome here, or that the decision was clearly a mistake because the outcome went badly.

But as much as it is refreshing to question whether managers are too aggressive in using their best pitchers this year, as opposed to watching Zach Britton sit in the bullpen as his team’s season ended a year ago, it feels like this was an example of the tide turning too far in the other direction. It’s great to have a guy like Verlander that you really believe in, but you can’t win a World Series with just a few pitchers. You have to trust your depth guys too.

If we’ve gotten to the point where we’re choosing to put a starter who has never pitched in relief in before a guy like Harris, a legitimately elite reliever, then I think the pendulum has swung too far the other direction. Especially when the Astros didn’t have to win Game 4. The worst case scenario for them in this game was that they head home with a fresh Verlander to take the mound, and Dallas Keuchel to bridge the gap between him and Ken Giles.

Now, they’re down 3-2 in this game, and might still head back to Houston for Game 5, only Keuchel will likely be the starter, and Verlander might be the guy pitching a few innings of relief instead. The Astros may have just unnecessarily reduced their worst-case outcome in Game 4 to an even worse position, because they didn’t trust a really good reliever.

Last night, Greg Bird played the hero, launching a home run off Andrew Miller for the only run of the game. For a lefty, just getting on base against Miller is a success, but going deep is pretty remarkable; it was only the second home run a left-hander hit off Miller this year.

But perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised, because since coming back off the disabled list, Bird has been hitting bombs with regularity. His overall season line of .190/.288/.422 isn’t much to write home about, but his early-season numbers came when he probably shouldn’t have been playing, given his foot issues. If we combine his post-DL with his postseason performance to date, this is the line that Healthy Greg Bird has put up in 2017.

The underlying numbers show significant improvement as well. In his pre-DL performance, Bird averaged 87.7 mph exit velocity on his batted balls, but since returning, that mark has jumped to 91.1 mph. For reference, only 13 hitters with at least 100 batted balls averaged 91 mph in exit velocity this year.

And in the postseason, against one of the best pitching staffs we’ve ever seen, Bird’s been crushing the ball at a level not unlike his most monstrous teammate. Here are Bird’s batted balls in this series against Cleveland so far.

Bird’s six batted balls in this series have averaged 94.4 mph, while facing the best left-handed reliever in baseball twice, a top-5 starter twice, and two above average right-handers.

As a pull-heavy left-hander who also strikes out and hits his share of infield flies, Bird is probably never going to be a high average hitter, but the power he’s shown since coming off the DL is a carrying tool, and Bird is showing why the Yankees line-up is scarier right now than their overall season numbers might make it appear.

To be clear, there are two positions here.

Position: St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Development Application Developer

Location: St. Louis
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I don’t know if this is ultimately going to matter much. As I write this, the Yankees are still leading the Indians by a run, and they only need to get six more outs. The odds are in the Yankees’ favor. But, not long ago, the odds were even more in the Yankees’ favor. Then we had controversy. Controversy! Our first controversy of the 2017 postseason, as far as I can tell. The scene: the bottom of the sixth, with two on and two out in an 8-3 game. It’s Chad Green, and it’s Lonnie Chisenhall, and the count is 0-and-2.

That’s not where that pitch was supposed to go. The result: the dreaded 0-and-2 HBP. You’d expect better of Green, and he certainly knew right away he didn’t execute like he wanted to, but if you watch that clip over and over, you might notice something. As the umpire signals for Chisenhall to take his base, Chisenhall appears to be surprised. Not that he was going to turn down the opportunity, but he didn’t respond like someone who’d been hit by a pitch in the body. Gary Sanchez immediately thought that something was wrong. Sanchez thought the ball hit the knob of the bat. Upon super-slow-motion instant replay, it looks like the ball did hit the knob of the bat.

And then the ball went into Sanchez’s glove! Which would make it, technically, a foul tip, which would lead to a strikeout. If the ball hit the bat, then Chisenhall should’ve been out, and that would’ve been the end of it. I’m not saying the instant replay makes it 100% incontestable, but it looks a lot more like bat than hand. And as you probably know, these plays are reviewable. Seems like that should’ve come in handy for the Yankees. They could get the umpires to take a look. They…didn’t. I have no idea why. Something tells me it’s going to come up later on. Sanchez thought Chisenhall was hit in the bat, not the hand, and he gestured toward his own dugout. No review was requested. Within seconds, this would loom awfully large.

Instead of 8-3 in the seventh, it became 8-7 in the sixth. Instead of the Indians’ win expectancy being about 3%, it was about 33%. Now, that’s not all on the call. Even after Chisenhall went to first, the Indians’ odds of winning stood at about 8%, and then Francisco Lindor had to do what he did to Chad Green’s delivery. Green, for his part, should’ve made better pitches. But in our sixth playoff game, we have our first real issue related to a call on the field — and instant replay — and now that I check back in, oh, look at that, the Indians have tied the game up. I’m sure Joe Girardi is looking forward to his presser. I can’t imagine what he’s going to be asked.

Yesterday, I wrote about how Jon Gray’s curveball didn’t work in the NL Wild Card game. Gray hung a bunch of poorly-located curves that the Diamondbacks crushed, and he was chased from the game in the second inning. Last night, though, Trevor Bauer showed what a good curveball in the postseason looks like.

With only four whiffs, you might not think the pitch was particularly dominant, but Bauer’s curveball was his best pitch of the night. Because, unlike Gray, he was able to keep it down.

Instead of just relying on whiffs, Bauer also managed to freeze hitters with curves in the zone, like he did to Aaron Judge here.

Eight times, Bauer froze a Yankee hitter with a curveball in the zone, including Aaron Judge twice for strike three. And when the Yankees did swing, it didn’t go much better for them.

15 times, a New York hitter went after Bauer’s curveball. Only seven of those 15 swings resulted in a ball in play. Here is what they did with those seven balls in play.

Hicks rocked a poorly located curve, but besides that, this is as weak as contact gets. With Sanchez’s double play, he still managed to rack up seven outs on the seven balls in play. Combined with the four strikeouts, Bauer got a total of 11 outs out of his 35 curveballs. Not bad indeed.

Bauer’s curve has always been his best pitch, and it’s probably not a coincidence that he’s had his best season while throwing his pitch more frequently than ever before. Bauer threw his curve 30% of the time in the regular season, and upped that to 36% last night. He’s not quite Rich Hill yet, but given what Bauer did to the Yankees with his breaking ball last night, they probably should expect a healthy dose of them if he gets into another game this series.

Of course, with Corey Kluber going today and Carlos Carrasco in Game Three, the Yankees might not see Bauer again this season.

We are currently seeking additional ballots for a handful of teams for the Fans Scouting Report.

If you follow the Rays, Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Mets or Padres, it would be a great help if you took a short amount of time to fill out a ballot.

We could also use ballots for the Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Astros, Phillies, Pirates and Cardinals, but these are in a little bit less of dire need.

The compiled results of these ballots end up on the player pages and the leaderboards.

In addition, if you have filled out a valid ballot (at any time this year, ballots before today included), we are going to be randomly selecting 20 users for a free year of FanGraphs Ad Free Membership! These 20 members will be selected when the ballot closes. If you are selected and already have an Ad Free Membership, your membership will be extended for 12 months.

Thank you for your help!

So much for a boring Monday with no baseball news.

BREAKING: #Braves GM John Coppolella expected to resign today, sources tell The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) October 2, 2017

Resignation of Coppolella believed to stem in part from issues with #Braves’ talent acquisition in Latin America.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) October 2, 2017

Special assistant to the GM Gordon Blakeley also involved in issues #Braves are facing, sources tell The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) October 2, 2017

Jeff Passan adds a little detail here.

Sources: Major League Baseball has been investigating Braves GM John Coppolella in recent weeks. @Ken_Rosenthal says he plans on resigning.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 2, 2017

And then the Braves confirmed it.

#Braves confirm Coppolella resignation, citing breach of rules in international market.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) October 2, 2017

Obviously, with this little information out there, it’s impossible to know what went down, but if it really leads to Coppolella resigning as GM, it has to be pretty serious. MLB has punished teams for breaking rules surrounding international signings before, but it hasn’t led to a high-level executive being pushed out since 2009, when Jim Bowden resigned in the wake of allegations of a host of improprieties under his regime.

For the Braves, this is obviously not how they wanted their offseason to begin. John Hart seemingly remains as the team’s president of baseball operations, and will likely handle the regular GM duties until the team finds a replacement, but with the team just recently bringing in several new assistant GMs and restructuring the front office, it will be interesting to see how the new front office will operate. An outside hire would likely want to bring in their own staff, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Hart just served as the team’s de facto GM for 2018.

Either way, the Braves are going to have to make more decisions now than they had planned on, and it will be interesting to see whether any course direction is made coming off a disappointing season and now a resignation of the team’s GM.

I’ve spent a good chunk of the morning trying to find a way to write about the weekend’s events in a way that adds something to the conversation. I didn’t want to just write about the controversy surrounding anthem etiquette simply because it was what everyone else was writing about today, nor did I want to use the FanGraphs platform to preach to the choir who might agree with my stance, or to lecture those who don’t.

But, at the same time, with this topic at the forefront of the national sports discussion, and with Puerto Rico in desperate need of aid after getting devastated by Hurricane Maria, trying to write about anything else feels hollow. Maybe I’ll be able to write about the NL Cy Young race tomorrow. I couldn’t do it today.

So here’s what I’ve settled on. Jeff Passan wrote a really good in-depth piece on Bruce Maxwell, who became the first MLB player to kneel during the National Anthem this weekend.

“Usually the first person to do something when it comes to difference or controversy is the person who bears the brunt of negative comments. That’s fine with me,” Maxwell said. “I told the [A’s] owners, it’s nothing I’m not used to. I was an African-American growing up in Alabama. I got a lot of stuff there. I knew my life would change. I was staring directly into the flag because this is my country. My dad fought for this country. My grandfather fought for this country. I got a lot of feedback from them, and I’m standing up for my rights. This isn’t old America. People shouldn’t be treated unequally because of the color of their skin. There’s a problem. I’m doing my part to stand up and have the world of baseball understand it’s not the NFL standing out. It’s not basketball players rejecting an invitation to the White House. It’s all our responsibilities as humans, as Americans, to do what’s right.”

Whether you agree with his form of protest or even what he’s protesting, the story behind his decision to do so should help inform our understanding of his motivations.

And in this day and age, we could all use more understanding of the other side. Getting to see things from Maxwell’s perspective, and from those who know him best, is imperative to repairing the issues that create a compulsion to take a knee. And repairing these issues, not attacking the messengers, should be everyone’s primary goal.

So I’d like to encourage everyone to take the time you might have spent reading my words on this issue and instead read Passan’s piece on Bruce Maxwell. But before you do that, I’d like to encourage everyone reading this to pick a charity dedicated to helping Puerto Rico rebuild, and donate whatever you’re able to in order to help those who need it most right now. This is a legitimate crisis, and we can’t afford to just say that someone else can help them. They are U.S. citizens, and they desperately need other Americans to assist them in their time of need. Let’s not let them down.

Donate to any of these charities.

Then read this.

And maybe tomorrow we’ll talk about Clayton Kershaw versus Max Scherzer.

Instructional League began in Arizona on Wednesday with the Texas and San Diego groups playing in Peoria, AZ. Lefty Brett Martin started for Texas and sat 92-94 with his downhill fastball, touching 95. He frequently utilized a changeup that flashed average, but was mostly below in the 83-85 mph range with an upper-80s cutter. I saw no curveballs from Martin, which I had previously evaluated as his best secondary pitch. I’m not certain if the pitch has been scrapped temporarily for developmental purposes — or perhaps medical ones, as Rangers pitchers in Extended were on fastball-only programs for a while — or if he simply didn’t happen to throw any. Regardless, Martin’s changeup needs reps, as he’s missed significant time with injury during each of the last three years. Between 2015 and -17 he’s had hip, elbow, and back issues. He has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and more consistently locate a fully developed changeup.

Speaking of changeups, Cole Ragans is going to have a really good one. The Rangers 19-year-old lefty sat 88-91 with his fastball yesterday and flashed an above-average, fading changeup in the upper 70s. I have it and Ragans’ command projected to plus. His fastball is a 40 on pure velocity but plays better than that due to plane and deception. He also showed a fringey, low-70s curveball. I can see the basis for the Cole Hamels comparisons, as there are some mechanical similarities and the repertoire is structured similarly. That said, Ragans isn’t as graceful and athletic as Hamels is/was, nor does he have the velocity. Yet.

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Position: Wasserman Sports Analytics Internship

Location: New York

Description:
Wasserman is continually looking to expand its internal analytics capabilities to better serve clients across a multitude of sports. New hires take on a variety of responsibilities ranging from daily database maintenance to player-specific statistical research. As such, ideal applicants will have strong problem solving skills and a willingness to undertake new and unfamiliar tasks.
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