Position: Baseball Info Solutions Research and Development Analyst

Location: Coplay, Pa.

Description:
Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) is looking for candidates to fill a full-time position in our R&D Department. The R&D Analyst will work out of our office near Allentown, Pa., and will contribute as a member of our R&D team, supporting research for publications and future products. The position requires a variety of skills including (but not limited to) an analytical mind, computer expertise, writing ability, and a passion for sports, particularly baseball and football.
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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

8/23

Mike O’Reilly, RHP, St. Louis (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: NR  Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 9 H, 0 BB, 2 R, 7 K

Notes
A 27th rounder out of Flagler College last year, O’Reilly was promoted to High-A Palm Beach in late July after a dominant four-game stretch of Midwest League starts that included a complete game, one-hit, 12-strikeout performance. O’Reilly doesn’t throw all that hard, sitting 88-91, but he’s deceptive, he can locate his breaking ball for strikes, and he flashes a plus changeup. There’s some risk that O’Reilly’s fastball won’t be effective against upper-level hitters, but he has quality secondary stuff, throws strikes, and overall has a profile in line with valuable upper-level pitching depth.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Victor Robles, CF, Washington (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 1  Top 100: 8
Line: 3-for-5, 2B, HR, SB

Notes
Robles is slashing .320/.375/.505 since his promotion to Double-A and has tallied a career-high 51 extra-base hits already this year. Many of those are doubles hooked down the left-field line that Robles turns into extra bases because of his plus-plus speed. Though he still has occasional lapses out there right now, that speed is likely to make Robles a very good defensive center fielder at maturity as he runs down balls in the gaps that many center fielders cannot. Scouts anticipate Robles will hit around .300 with some pop — though probably not quite as much as he’s shown this year — while playing good defense in center field. As a point of reference, Lorenzo Cain, a good defensive center fielder, has slashed .295/.360/.440 this season with strikeout and walk rates within 1% of Robles’ career marks. Cain has generated 3.3 WAR in 119 games this year. That appears to be a very reasonable outcome for Robles, who is one of baseball’s best prospects.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Pedro Avila, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: NR  Top 100: NR
Line: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 R, 13 K

Notes
This was Avila’s fifth double-digit strikeout game this year and his second in the last three starts, as he K’d 18 at Great Lakes on August 8th. A stocky 5-foot-11, Avila doesn’t have a huge fastball, sitting mostly 91-93 and dipping just beneath that from the stretch, but he frequently demonstrates pinpoint command of it, working to both his arm and glove sides. That gets Avila ahead in the count and sets up his deep-diving curveball, which bites enough to miss bats in the strike zone as well as below it. He also flashes a plus changeup. Avila began the year in High-A and struggled to throw strikes (but not miss bats) there for nine starts before a demotion. He has 102 strikeouts in 74.2 innings since then. Avila was acquired during Winter Meetings from Washington in exchange for Derek Norris.

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Sunday night, Rafael Devers went yard against Aroldis Chapman, even though Chapman’s fastball was recorded at nearly 103 miles per hour. It’s the fastest pitch hit out in the pitch-tracking era, which has spanned nearly a decade, and that linked article was almost obligatory. Had to write something up. Devers tagged Chapman, even though it seemed like Chapman had his best stuff.

To a certain extent, you can’t blame Chapman for what happened. He threw a lefty-on-lefty fastball, with two strikes, kind of up and in at over 100 miles per hour. That pitch should basically never go for a homer. I’m still not sure how it happened. But, ignore the homer for a moment. Pretend it was a double, or a single. Or even an out! Whatever you like. Devers made contact. Solid contact, at that. The contact is what’s strange, and there are signs of a problematic trend, here.

Let’s examine Chapman’s career, shall we? I’ve prepared three rolling-average plots, each using samples of 30 games. This first one shows the development of Chapman’s average fastball.

You could argue there’s a recent down tick, but Chapman is still regularly reaching triple digits. His fastball is fast. Still a Chapman fastball. Like we all saw with the at-bat against Devers, Chapman can still run it up there about as hard as he ever has. So, based on the velocity, Chapman seems okay. Shifting to pitch location, we can see a trend from the past year and a half or so.

Chapman has been aggressive with pitching in the zone. He’s thrown two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, and this year in particular, he’s regularly gotten ahead with the first pitches of plate appearances. And, of course, with such an unhittable fastball, why mess around? Chapman had a terrific 2016, in which he came right after his opponents. This year, he’s done much of the same. But-

That plot shows contact rate. Chapman’s present contact rate is far higher than it’s been since earlier in 2013. All of a sudden — it’s not so much that Chapman is hittable, but he’s a great deal more hittable than he’s been. Look at this table of the biggest contact-rate declines from last year, with a minimum of 30 innings:

Chapman has a contact rate of 75.2%. The league-average reliever has a contact rate of 75.4%. No pitcher’s contact rate has dropped by more, and although Chapman is still mostly okay, and although this could be a blip, he was on the disabled list for a month, with a rotator-cuff problem. His contact rate has only risen since he came back. The velocity is there, and maybe that’s the most important thing, but you do have to wonder. Chapman’s been one of the most dominant relievers anyone’s ever seen. Real cracks appear to be forming.

Related to this, consider Chapman’s year-to-year ranks among all relievers in Win Probability Added:

• 2011: 24th
• 2012: 8th
• 2013: 44th
• 2014: 15th
• 2015: 16th
• 2016: 7th
• 2017: 337th

I don’t know what the issue is. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if it were linked to the injury. In that case, it would be nice to have an explanation. But even then, explanation isn’t resolution. Aroldis Chapman is allowing roughly league-average contact. He’s in the first year of the largest contract a reliever has ever signed.

I don’t think many people expected the NL Central to be very close, but here we are, with four teams within four games of the divisional lead. Although the Cubs, as expected, have risen to sit in first, their closest rivals now are the Cardinals, but one single game behind. For those Cardinals, it’s been a pretty ordinary season, and it’s been a pretty weird one.

The best player on the Cardinals, by Wins Above Replacement, leads the team by a margin of one full win. The best player on the Cardinals didn’t crack the opening-day roster. As a consequence of that, the best player on the Cardinals gave serious thought to calling it quits. The best player on the Cardinals is a 29-year-old who came into the year with a half-season’s worth of major-league experience. The best player on the Cardinals has himself an extended injury history, and the best player on the Cardinals has also had to manage a degenerative eye condition, called keratoconus. The best player on the Cardinals probably isn’t supposed to be the best player on the Cardinals.

And still, at least statistically, the best player on the Cardinals has been Tommy Pham. It’s been fun for me to watch Mike Trout glide up the WAR leaderboard since his return to the bigs. As I write this, he’s tied with Paul Goldschmidt for third place, as hitters go. Pham is no Trout — he’s down there in 22nd, among position players. But that’s 22nd out of a sample a lot bigger than 22 players. That’s 22nd even though Pham hasn’t been up all year. That’s 22nd, which puts Pham above guys like Michael Conforto, Travis Shaw, and Andrew McCutchen.

Watch Tommy Pham hit a dinger. I don’t know what purpose this clip serves, but, who doesn’t want to watch a dinger? It’s a visual break from the wall of text.

Pham’s personal story is far too deep, complex, and interesting for a short blog post. I’d recommend reading this feature, or this one, or this one. Pham’s dealt with adversity from nearly the start of his life, and that’s for reasons even beyond his compromised vision. But just from a baseball perspective: Can you imagine trying to hit with compromised vision? This is an excerpt from the first of those links.

Pham said he is legally blind in his left eye due to keratoconus.

At present, Pham is able to play and perform through careful management of special contact lenses. I’ve already mentioned that Pham looks excellent according to WAR. He’s gotten there by being an all-around contributor. This is the kind of thing I’ve called attention to before when talking about Anthony Rendon. I looked at a spreadsheet of this year’s players with at least 250 plate appearances. I narrowed the pool down to only those players who’ve been at least average by K-BB%, ISO, BABIP, baserunning, and defense. The group includes only nine players. Rendon, yeah. Pham, too. Pham’s been solid across the board. He’s even cleaned up his biggest on-field weakness.

This right here is probably the highlight of this entry. We’ve got some plate-discipline data stretching back more than a decade and a half. I looked at every single player over that span to bat at least 100 times in consecutive seasons. Here are the 10 biggest year-to-year improvements in contact rate:

That’s a hard thing to pull off by accident. As a result, Pham has trimmed his strikeout rate by an unbelievable 15 percentage points, and although Pham now just looks pretty similar to what he was as a part-time player in 2015, he’s doing it now over greater playing time. And so Pham is now a player with a career WAR/600 of 4.5.

The St. Louis outfield remains crowded. Pham remains an objectively risky player, or at least a player with a higher degree of volatility. I don’t know to what extent the Cardinals actually trust him, but that trust has to be a lot stronger than it was a few months ago, and, if it weren’t for Pham, the Cardinals wouldn’t be where they are today in the standings. The best player on the Cardinals is a miracle. I don’t think I’m even exaggerating.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Games of 8/9

Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago NL (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: HM  Top 100: NR
Line: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 9 K

Notes
Looking at his stuff in the absence of context, Mekkes is barely a middle-relief prospect. His fastball typically sits in the low 90s and his slider is solid average, perhaps a tick above. But Mekkes is a gargantuan 6-foot-7, takes a large stride toward the plate, and releases the ball much closer to the plate than the average pitcher, creating a Doug Fister-like effect that allows his stuff to play up. He has a 1.00 career ERA in pro ball and has allowed just 32 hits in 61 innings this year while striking out 80.

Like most XXL pitchers in their early 20s, Mekkes struggles with control, but hitters’ inability to adjust to his delivery in short stints has limited their overall ability to reach base. As a result, he has a WHIP under 1.00 despite an 11% walk rate. It’s hard to say how this rare type of deception will play in a big league, assuming upper-level hitters are still flummoxed by it as Mekkes moves on. Jordan Walden was dominant for a half decade with a similar type of deception but had much better stuff. Regardless, it’s worth noting that Chris Mitchell had flagged Mekkes as a noteworthy prospect before he was drafted.

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With Jay Bruce on his way to Cleveland, the Mets have called up Dominic Smith to play first base for the remainder of the year. The Mets took Smith with the 11th overall pick out of high school back in 2013. He was hitting a smooth .330/.386/.519 at Triple-A this year, although those numbers were certainly helped by the PCL and his home ballpark in Las Vegas.

When taken in the context of his league and ballpark, Smith’s .188 ISO isn’t all that impressive. And while he’s hit for a high average, it hasn’t been due to his making a lot of contact as evidenced by his 17% strikeout rate. Instead, he’s gotten there by way of a .380 BABIP. In sum, Smith is a first baseman with unremarkable power and contact skills. That isn’t to say Smith isn’t an interesting prospect. While his 2017 performance is suspect, his 2016 numbers were much more promising. He made a lot of contact in Double-A last year while also hitting for decent power in a non-PCL environment. It’s also important to remember that Smith just turned 22, making him quite young for Triple-A. And finally, both the metrics and lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen view Smith as an above-average defensive first baseman, which takes a bit of pressure off of his bat.

My KATOH system pegs Smith for 6.0 WAR over his first six seasons by the stats-only method and 5.6 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his No. 50 rank on Baseball America’s midseason list. Those marks place him 52nd and 68th, respectively, among prospects.

To put some faces to Smith’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Smith’s 2017 performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Smith is a good prospect, but it isn’t entirely clear that he’s ready for the show just yet. Despite his gaudy stat line, his performance has been more good than great after accounting for his environment. Steamer sees him as a 89 wRC+ hitter right now, which is awfully light for a first baseman. But seeing how the Mets aren’t competing this year, they have little to lose by giving Smith 50 games to show what he can do.

It’s been a rough season for the Phillies, whose record is the worst in baseball and sits comfortably below .400. They’ve trotted out quite a few bad players on a regular basis, including Tommy Joseph, who’s given them four months of disappointment at first base. While Joseph was turning in a 90 wRC+ with poor defense, Rhys Hoskins was annihilating Triple-A. Finally, the Phillies are giving him a whirl at the highest level.

Prior to his call-up, Hoskins hit an insane .284/.385/.581 across 475 Triple-A plate appearances. He belted 29 homers and simultaneously struck out less than 16% of the time. This performance didn’t come out of nowhere, either, as Hoskins slashed .281/.377/.566 and blasted 38 homers last season at Double-A. Those numbers were undoubtedly helped by his home ballpark in Reading, which led many to doubt their validity. But KATOH still loved him because the power numbers were so exceptional and they came packaged with acceptable strikeout rates.

My KATOH system pegs Hoskins for 10.0 WAR over his first six seasons by the stats-only method and 9.4 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his No. 69 rank on Baseball America’s midseason list. Those marks place him 14th and 27th, respectively, among prospects. 

Those WAR estimates don’t tell the whole story, however, as KATOH sees some serious star potential in Hoskins, giving him a roughly 1-in-5 chance of racking up over 20 wins over the next six years. For reference, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera and Freddie Freeman were the only first baseman who crossed that threshold in the six-year span that ended in 2016.

To put some faces to Hoskins’ statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Hoskins’ 2017 performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Hoskins is limited to first base, which obviously puts a lot of pressure on his hitting. Even if he’s an above-average defender there, as Clay Davenport’s numbers suggest he is, the offensive bar remains extremely high. This is why KATOH sees him as a No. 20-ish prospect, even though his offensive numbers are eons better than most of the hitters ranked ahead of him. Nonetheless, hitters who pair that type of power with good contact skills are quite rare. Throw in that he also draws walks, and Hoskins looks like he could be a pretty special hitter.