At the beginning of June, I experimented with a metric designed to determine how exciting it has been to watch a team. Using leverage index, I factored in how often a team played in games with something at stake, and looked at how often the team actually delivered in those moments using WPA. I separated both categories into hitting and pitching and made 100 the major league average. I took the geometric mean of those four numbers; the result is the Exhilaration Index. At the same time, I took the difference between the team’s leverage index scores and their WPA scores to determine how often a team let fans down in big situations, a number that I called their Horror Score.
Here is the Exhilaration Index for June:
Here are the Horror Scores for June:
Here’s the Exhilaration Index for the first half of the season:
And finally, the Horror Scores through the All-Star Break:
Fans of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, and Rays seem to be getting their money’s worth this season, while the Tigers, Royals, Marlins, and Mets have provided their faithful an awful lot of heartache. We’ll check back as the second half progresses to see if the horrified receive any relief, or if the fortunes of the delighted shift.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
The Mets are a top 5 team in terms of starting pitching WAR. Yet by actual results, ERA brings them down to 16. And relievers are dead last in WAR, and ahead of only the Orioles and Nationals in terms of ERA.
I don’t even know how to understand how frustrating that is. There is real talent on this team. The hitting is perfectly fine, and the emergence of Polar Bear Pete is so incredible. And there’s clearly enough talent on the pitching side, especially since injury hasn’t been the problem. But for whatever reason, the Mets just can’t get their incredibly talented staff to just click together to an even moderately acceptable level.