Presenting the First Half Exhilaration Index and Horror Scores

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July 15, 2019

At the beginning of June, I experimented with a metric designed to determine how exciting it has been to watch a team. Using leverage index, I factored in how often a team played in games with something at stake, and looked at how often the team actually delivered in those moments using WPA. I separated both categories into hitting and pitching and made 100 the major league average. I took the geometric mean of those four numbers; the result is the Exhilaration Index. At the same time, I took the difference between the team’s leverage index scores and their WPA scores to determine how often a team let fans down in big situations, a number that I called their Horror Score.

Here is the Exhilaration Index for June:

June Exhilaration Index
Team Hitting LI Score Pitching LI Score Hitting WPA Score Pitching WPA Score Exhilaration Index
Dodgers 113 122 106 118 114.5
Red Sox 124 126 106 103 114.4
Twins 128 123 90 119 113.9
Braves 98 123 141 95 112.9
Pirates 139 112 106 82 107.8
Rockies 96 120 114 92 105.0
Nationals 84 108 115 114 104.6
Astros 102 107 97 112 104.3
Giants 108 102 94 109 102.9
Cardinals 111 102 89 111 102.8
Brewers 104 105 98 102 102.2
Rangers 91 100 95 126 102.1
Athletics 85 107 110 108 102.0
Padres 109 108 116 78 101.8
Royals 124 108 82 97 101.7
White Sox 95 113 93 101 100.2
Reds 100 95 80 114 96.6
Indians 82 85 103 121 96.6
Cubs 106 82 93 104 95.7
Phillies 100 94 103 82 94.4
Yankees 71 89 127 97 93.7
Mets 104 100 112 64 93.0
Rays 91 90 81 109 92.5
Mariners 98 85 107 81 92.4
Diamondbacks 91 76 98 108 92.3
Angels 80 81 104 102 90.9
Marlins 78 89 96 101 90.5
Blue Jays 89 89 97 82 89.1
Tigers 104 85 72 83 85.4
Orioles 95 72 74 84 80.8

Here are the Horror Scores for June:

June Horror Scores
Team Leverage Index Score WPA Score Horror Score
Pirates 125 94 31
Royals 116 90 27
Twins 126 104 21
Red Sox 125 104 21
Tigers 95 78 17
Mets 102 88 14
Padres 109 97 12
White Sox 104 97 7
Cardinals 107 100 7
Dodgers 117 112 5
Rockies 108 103 5
Brewers 105 100 5
Orioles 83 79 4
Phillies 97 93 4
Giants 105 101 3
Reds 98 97 1
Astros 104 104 0
Blue Jays 89 90 -1
Mariners 92 94 -2
Cubs 94 98 -5
Rays 91 95 -5
Braves 111 118 -7
Athletics 96 109 -13
Rangers 96 110 -15
Marlins 83 98 -15
Nationals 96 115 -19
Diamondbacks 83 103 -20
Angels 80 103 -23
Indians 84 112 -28
Yankees 80 112 -32

Here’s the Exhilaration Index for the first half of the season:

First Half Exhilaration Index
Team Hitting LI Score Pitching LI Score Hitting WPA Score Pitching WPA Score Exhilaration Index
Red Sox 124 119 110 101 113
Dodgers 103 106 126 114 112
Braves 95 126 123 100 110
Rays 103 116 90 129 108
Nationals 112 116 111 96 108
Yankees 91 106 124 113 108
Twins 86 113 106 126 107
Rockies 120 106 102 96 106
Athletics 86 126 108 106 106
Pirates 120 106 115 84 105
Mets 120 119 110 76 104
Diamondbacks 112 103 95 107 104
Brewers 99 110 98 106 103
Astros 95 87 111 123 103
Padres 95 113 99 101 102
Cubs 99 100 105 101 101
Reds 112 103 80 113 101
Cardinals 108 93 98 102 100
Phillies 91 93 110 95 97
Rangers 82 90 103 106 95
Indians 82 84 97 120 95
Tigers 137 93 74 84 94
Giants 99 87 86 104 94
Marlins 112 93 71 98 92
White Sox 86 87 105 92 92
Angels 82 81 106 93 90
Royals 99 97 79 77 87
Blue Jays 91 81 79 88 85
Mariners 78 77 106 71 82
Orioles 82 68 74 77 75

And finally, the Horror Scores through the All-Star Break:

First Half Horror Score
Team Leverage Index Score WPA Score Horror Score
Tigers 115 79 36
Mets 120 93 27
Royals 98 78 20
Marlins 103 85 18
Red Sox 122 106 16
Pirates 113 99 14
Rockies 113 99 14
Reds 107 97 11
Nationals 114 103 10
Diamondbacks 107 101 7
Padres 104 100 4
Brewers 104 102 2
Blue Jays 86 84 2
Cardinals 100 100 0
Rays 110 109 0
Orioles 75 75 -1
Athletics 106 107 -1
Braves 110 112 -2
Giants 93 95 -2
Cubs 99 103 -3
Phillies 92 103 -11
Mariners 78 89 -11
White Sox 87 99 -12
Dodgers 105 120 -15
Twins 100 116 -17
Angels 81 99 -18
Rangers 86 104 -18
Yankees 98 118 -20
Indians 83 109 -26
Astros 91 117 -26

Fans of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, and Rays seem to be getting their money’s worth this season, while the Tigers, Royals, Marlins, and Mets have provided their faithful an awful lot of heartache. We’ll check back as the second half progresses to see if the horrified receive any relief, or if the fortunes of the delighted shift.





 

Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.

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Tulkas
4 years ago

The Mets are a top 5 team in terms of starting pitching WAR. Yet by actual results, ERA brings them down to 16. And relievers are dead last in WAR, and ahead of only the Orioles and Nationals in terms of ERA.

I don’t even know how to understand how frustrating that is. There is real talent on this team. The hitting is perfectly fine, and the emergence of Polar Bear Pete is so incredible. And there’s clearly enough talent on the pitching side, especially since injury hasn’t been the problem. But for whatever reason, the Mets just can’t get their incredibly talented staff to just click together to an even moderately acceptable level.

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