Reports: Cubs Sign Jason Heyward
Well, it seems like the Cubs have won the Jason Heyward sweepstakes.
Multiple sources indicate Heyward has indeed chosen Cubs over Cards, Nats.
— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) December 11, 2015
BREAKING: Heyward has decision. Told now it's #Cubs. Source earlier told PD #Cardinals alerted they're out. https://t.co/8gMFYljxEc Updated
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 11, 2015
Cubs are believed to have gotten heyward for less than $200M. Apparently taking less to be at addison and clark. @GDubCub 1st
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2015
At “less than $200 million”, as Heyman reported, I’m guessing the deal will end up at $192 million over eight years, or something in that range. He’ll almost certainly have an opt-out, probably after the third or fourth year. We should find out official terms soon, but one thing looks like a safe bet: the 2016 Cubs are going to be the pre-season favorites to win the NL Central.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
The “Best Fans in Baseball” are already lighting up the internet, showing how “klassy” they are. #wfib
Some of us are out there and are very disappointed but aren’t bitter or hostile toward anyone, especially Heyward, indisputably a class act.
Way to paint with a broad brush there, Mr. Anonymous.
U mad bro? I’m a Cards fan but even I recognize most Cards fans are arrogant dicks. Cameron is only point out the obvious.
You do realize that is not really Dave Cameron, right?
Such a hot take.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
I… don’t think the Yankees were involved in Heyward talks at all.
Saving ALL their ducats for the $400 Mil they will give Bryce Harper in a couple of years.
Weeks ago I posted that StL cannot likely overcome the WAR swing that occurs from the Cubs Upgrade (Heyward over Fowler or Soler) and the StL downgrade (Heyward to Piscotty) due to Heyward signing with Cubs.
There’s no animosity.
There are some cardinal fans that are upset that Heyward spoke so highly of St. Louis but then did not resign right away, and chose to go into winter meetings and get more teams interested in bidding.
I don;t know why, but some Cardinal fans take it personally.
I don’t.
The Cubs are making very smart moves, adding quality to an already talented team. Good for them.
All fan bases do it. If Bryant leaves and signs a mega deal with some team someday, there’ll be a huge backlash from some fans.
Yeah, but we had Heyward for one season.
Bryant would have been their Golden Child since his debut through his 1st 6 seasons.
That’s different.
Heyward was StL’s best player for the year he was there. How about a “Thanks J-Hey”? We don’t have to wish him luck because of who he’ll be playing for. But we can be thankful for the contribution he made to a great season despite numerous setbacks.
@Circle, just wanted to say as a Cubs fan, I’ve always appreciated your comments. Happy Holidays!
Why in the world would you post under the name Dave Cameron? Are you trying to be clever?
I don’t think your name is really Ben.
Schwarber is as good as gone?
Unless he can catch, I would hope so. The man is not a leftfielder, and first base isn’t an option. He needs to go to the AL. Maybe for a pitcher?
Whoever brings back the best pitcher or CF, either him or Soler.
I don’t know if there is a fit, but what about Schwarber+ for Quintana?
Or perhaps for Gausman+ or Taijuan Walker+.
Quintana for Schwarber does make sense; though Quintana’s contract is so amazing (4 years, $28m) and Schwarber’s glove is not good (yes, Sox can stick him at DH). But six years of control is better than four.
I think the Cubs should move him for Betts. Again, not sure the Red Sox would move Mookie.
I’m not sure Soler has as much value as one would expect… those K rates and BABIP and UZR are all pointing to a player who might not be as good as his talent.
What would the Red Sox do with Schwarber? Put him in the outfield? That would basically be a strict downgrade from Betts.
But an upgrade over Hanley… either in LF OR at 1B. Give ya Buchholz for him….
Uh, Betts costs a good deal more than Schwarber.
McCullers for Shwarber as the baseline for a deal? Astros are one of the few contending teams in need of a DH and has a cost controlled, excellent starting pitcher the Cubs would want.
The Astros don’t need a DH. We have Gattis, who is essentially just like Schwarber in that they can’t really catch or play OF.
Plus Gattis can’t hit so they’re exactly alike **eyeroll**
Sonny Gray for Schwarber + prospects.
I would like to see him playing 1B for StL … let’s make this 2016 Chi-StL Rivalry as emotional as it can possibly get.
Why do people keep taking less money to not play with me?
That’s a clo– well, you know the rest.
Word coming out of Chicago is that they are going to replace the grass at Wrigley with cardboard. Cubs now project to be best team on paper.
This.
Thank you for the quick laugh.
Cards fan here – wtf is Plan C?
No Price, no Heyward. I don’t want to panic or anything but I’m thinking 2016 is a lost season with the injury to Lynn and losing out on these free agents.
Do we sign Crush Davis? Whew.
Heyward and Davis were worth about the same fWAR last year, fwiw, and Davis plays a position where guys tend to age more gracefully (he’s only 29). So maybe, and it wouldn’t be a terrible idea.
His skillset of all power, nothing else ages the worst though. Historically, he’s going to fall off the cliff into replacement level really quick at some season in his early to mid 30s.
All-power bats at 1B age gracefully? Wow. I’m not sure that you could possibly be more wrong.
I don’t look a day over 28!
My guess is the myth of all-power 1B aging gracefully comes from the fact that more athletic players might end their careers there, but those were likely guys who played more valuable defensive positions in their primes.
Ring*ring*ring…this is John Mozeliak, please leave a message after the tone…beep…
Hi John, this is Jeff Bridich…just calling to let you know we still have Carlos Gonzalez available…seriously though John, let’s just say Alex Reyes and we’ll call it good. [extended silence] C’mon John, please please please give me Reyes, I mean I might even settle for Weaver and Tuivailala…what I mean to say is just let me know your best offer, I’m only letting CarGo go if I’m blown away, okay…talk to you soon, or something I hope
click.
Pete Kozma and the complete set of George Springer’s medical records. Take it or leave it.
Alex Gordon, I’d imagine.
Alex Gordon and Maeda
100-win team loses Heyward, loses Lynn but likely gets Wainwright back, something something something, lost season? Can’t you elucidate the “something something something”?
I’ll try, bip.
Heyward, 6 WAR, gone.
Lynn, 3.5 WAR, gone for the season.
Lackey, 5.6 WAR, gone.
Replacing them is Adam Wainwright, who could be a Cy Young candidate or could fall to another injury.
Heyward and Lackey are now with their major division rivals.
Part of the Cardinals 2015 success was an extreme statistical outlier (pitching with RISP) that is very unlikely to be repeated in 2016.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to look at the Cardinals as of today and be fairly sure that 2016 is going to be a significantly worse year than 2015.
The Cardinals were going to be significantly worse regardless of them not signing Heyward.
And the gap isn’t a small one. Gordon and Cueto don’t even close that gap for the Cardinals, and they aren’t getting both guys. Will they be content to compete for a Wild Card spot for the next few years, competing with the Mets, Nats, Giants, D’Backs, and Dodgers? And what about the Pirates? The rest of the offseason for the Cards is fascinating.
The Cards look as though they will tread water for a spell. Injuries, defections, age and even death have taken their toll.
The Pirates can’t fix problems by throwing money at them. But the Pirates do have the prospects who can enable them to compete with any team. 2016 will be a transitional year for the Pirates.
I don’t understand this. In what universe are the Cardinals no better than wildcard contenders?
I agree with Bip.
Do the Cubs project to be really good in 2016? Yes. Do the Cubs project to be better than the Cardinals and win the NL Central? Yes.
Of course, the 2015 Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East, and we saw how that turned out.
Surprising performances (good and bad) happen, injuries happen, odd sequencing happens.
This universe.
While the Cubs can have injuries wreck their 2016 season, I wouldn’t want to count on that if I were the Cards or Pirates FO.
It’s a bit like playing the lottery as an investment strategy.
Hay! Good for them.
Jason Neeeeyyyyyward
LMHAO!!!!!!!
Back to back baseruns champs! Read it and weep LUcknals!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
See everyone at JOe’s on Weed! First round is on me! HAHAHAHAHAHA!
I don’t think you’ve actually been to Joe’s.
You know a player makes the headlines when they push Jorge Posada off the coveted top position of the suggested players search bar list.
Why does Posada keep rising to the top of the list? I’m always confused by this.
I too would like to know the answer there.
His mom
The Cards just lost/traded/waived *3* center fielders in one week. What is their plan exactly?
They’ve also lost 7.6 projected WAR to the Cubs in the last week.
He’s never hit more than 82 ribbies…He’s just not a runner producer.
No.
You can’t just say no. His rbi totals are bizarrely low considering his other offensive. Something is off when he hits with people on base.
Career wRC+
Bases empty: 119
Men on: 116
Men in socring position: 111
Something is off when he hits with people on base.
Oh hell! You mean you were serious with the original comment? Or are you simply doubling down on the sarcasm/troll behavior?
Jason Heyward, career:
Bases Empty: .261 / .343 / .442, .346 wOBA, 119 wRC+
Men on Base: .278 / .366 / .415, .343 wOBA, 116 wRC+
w / RISP: .266 / .376 /.384, .335 wOBA, 111 wRC+
That’s in line with what most players do (Bryce Harper this year: .464 wOBA / 199 wRC+ with bases empty, .411 wOBA / 163 wRC+ w/RISP)
So: No.
(It does appear that Heyward was significantly worse w/RISP just in 2015, so recency bias may be affecting your perception. Along with RBI fixation.)
@joser – I also think that the notion of Heyward being bad with RISP is dubious. It’s more likely that these splits are an anomaly that is neither sustainable nor predictive, much like “clutch” performance.
That said, it’s not true that his splits are “in line with what most players do.” As a group, players post better results with runners on base than without. In 2015, major league non-pitchers overall had a .312 wOBA with the bases empty (96 wRC+). With men on, .325 wOBA (105 wRC+). With RISP, .320 wOBA (102 wRC+). Stats here – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=29&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
There are at least a couple reasons for this difference.
One is defensive positioning. The 1B holding a runner on opens up a hole. Extreme defensive shifts are limited with runners on base. The infield may be in with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs.
The second is that, by nature, the average quality of pitching for each sample is somewhat different. Essentially, because Clayton Kershaw allows fewer baserunners than a #5 starter, a higher percentage of PA’s with men on base will take place against weaker pitching.
Oh my god, this!
I have never heard the term “runner producer”. Are those the guys who build the part of the bobsled that makes contact with the ice? If so, I agree, Jason Heyman is not much of a runner producer. However, both of his parents went to Dartmouth so maybe one or both of them are runner producers.
8yrs/$184million according to Ken Rosenthal: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/675399253796212736
two opt-outs, according to gammons
TWO? Wow, good for him.
Appears to be 184/8. Has to have an early opt out.
So if the Nats DID offer $200M, that’s a considerable discount to give the Cubbies. I guess Rizzo’s money truly is no good after all.
Maybe the Nats wouldn’t give him an opt-out. I could easily see that being worth at least $15 million to Heyward. If he adds some power as he gets older and becomes a 30 home run threat he would easily be a $30+ million a year player.
Also, if the term was more than 8 years. Heyward will likely still be a serviceable player in 9 years. If he’s still an average player, he’ll probably get $20 million-plus per year on a shorter term deal.
I’m quite stunned by this.
I thought that the idea of sabermetrics was to find and capture value in players that others didn’t appreciate. $24 Million per year is perfectly fine, but to lock yourself in for 8 years is insane, especially when the sabermetrics tell you that his value is likely to decline to zero after about 4 years. Even with the possibility of Heyward improving as a hitter, and even assuming that his dedication to the game is better than Carl Crawford’s, one thing that has become extraordinarily clear with the onset of the new defensive metrics is that whatever value those metrics ascribe to a player, that value is certain to decline precipitously as the player ages, and this contract is clearly the second coming of Carl Crawford. And all this to play the guy in a new position???
And it’s bad marketing. At least in Arizona, the DBacks get an immediate and significant return on their $200 MM investment in Zack Greinke through increased ticket sales for 2016. In contrast, Theo et al. promised that a winner would eventually be built from the ground up. Last season, the Cubs matured faster than everyone had expected, won 98 games and made it to the NLCS. They are adored, and they have no tickets to sell in 2016: a consolidation year would have been disappointing, but looking at the core of this team, there would be no reason not to be optimistic about 2017. Instead, what they’ve done is established great expectations, and there will be a very negative reaction by the fans if the Cubs have a disappointing season.
“Instead, what they’ve done is established great expectations, and there will be a very negative reaction by the fans if the Cubs have a disappointing season.”
Epstein: “Alright, all we need is his signature and we’re all set.”
(Hoyer bursts into room) “WAIT! But what if we sign him and we’re BAD next year?!”
Epstein: (looking up and away from Hoyer, slowly) “My God…”
Actually, don’t be so sure that’s not what happened, that Epstein and Hoyer were instructed, over their objections, to make this deal, just like they were forced to sign Carl Crawford…
…this is risky for Epstein and Hoyer, it’s a lose-lose for them, and I’m sure that while they were prepared to spend big money on occasion going forward, that this arose too quickly
You’re funny. Keep posting funny stuff.
>sabermetrics tell you that his value is likely to decline to zero after about 4 years
He’ll be 33 by the time this deal ends. Using traditional aging curves at 33 Heyward will have a projected 3.5 WAR.
3.5 WAR is equivalent to zero value in the thinking of some FG commenters.
Yes, but almost all of his WAR value is in his defense, and he will most certainly lose all if not almost all of that by the time that he is 33, or even 30
Heyward’s 27.8 career WAR includes 96 defensive runs saved. That’s about a third of his total value, so if “almost all” is a third, then sure.
And that ignores the -34.4 runs of positional value, making his total defensive value just over six wins out of the nearly 28. So we’re looking at a realistic total of one-fifth to one-fourth of his overall worth. That holds up based on his last season in St. Louis, as well. So, no.
Also, he’s not going to lose all of his defensive value in the next seven years, much less the next four, unless he loses a leg. Even then there are some very promising prosthetics.
Quincy owns The Chief.