The Best Player on the Cardinals
I don’t think many people expected the NL Central to be very close, but here we are, with four teams within four games of the divisional lead. Although the Cubs, as expected, have risen to sit in first, their closest rivals now are the Cardinals, but one single game behind. For those Cardinals, it’s been a pretty ordinary season, and it’s been a pretty weird one.
The best player on the Cardinals, by Wins Above Replacement, leads the team by a margin of one full win. The best player on the Cardinals didn’t crack the opening-day roster. As a consequence of that, the best player on the Cardinals gave serious thought to calling it quits. The best player on the Cardinals is a 29-year-old who came into the year with a half-season’s worth of major-league experience. The best player on the Cardinals has himself an extended injury history, and the best player on the Cardinals has also had to manage a degenerative eye condition, called keratoconus. The best player on the Cardinals probably isn’t supposed to be the best player on the Cardinals.
And still, at least statistically, the best player on the Cardinals has been Tommy Pham. It’s been fun for me to watch Mike Trout glide up the WAR leaderboard since his return to the bigs. As I write this, he’s tied with Paul Goldschmidt for third place, as hitters go. Pham is no Trout — he’s down there in 22nd, among position players. But that’s 22nd out of a sample a lot bigger than 22 players. That’s 22nd even though Pham hasn’t been up all year. That’s 22nd, which puts Pham above guys like Michael Conforto, Travis Shaw, and Andrew McCutchen.
Watch Tommy Pham hit a dinger. I don’t know what purpose this clip serves, but, who doesn’t want to watch a dinger? It’s a visual break from the wall of text.
Pham’s personal story is far too deep, complex, and interesting for a short blog post. I’d recommend reading this feature, or this one, or this one. Pham’s dealt with adversity from nearly the start of his life, and that’s for reasons even beyond his compromised vision. But just from a baseball perspective: Can you imagine trying to hit with compromised vision? This is an excerpt from the first of those links.
Pham said he is legally blind in his left eye due to keratoconus.
At present, Pham is able to play and perform through careful management of special contact lenses. I’ve already mentioned that Pham looks excellent according to WAR. He’s gotten there by being an all-around contributor. This is the kind of thing I’ve called attention to before when talking about Anthony Rendon. I looked at a spreadsheet of this year’s players with at least 250 plate appearances. I narrowed the pool down to only those players who’ve been at least average by K-BB%, ISO, BABIP, baserunning, and defense. The group includes only nine players. Rendon, yeah. Pham, too. Pham’s been solid across the board. He’s even cleaned up his biggest on-field weakness.
This right here is probably the highlight of this entry. We’ve got some plate-discipline data stretching back more than a decade and a half. I looked at every single player over that span to bat at least 100 times in consecutive seasons. Here are the 10 biggest year-to-year improvements in contact rate:
| Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Y1 Contact% | Y2 Contact% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham | 2016 | 2017 | 66.1% | 79.9% | 13.8% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 2011 | 2012 | 68.7% | 80.9% | 12.2% |
| Laynce Nix | 2004 | 2005 | 69.6% | 81.4% | 11.8% |
| Chris Davis | 2009 | 2010 | 63.1% | 74.8% | 11.7% |
| Nick Franklin | 2015 | 2016 | 66.8% | 78.3% | 11.5% |
| Alex Bregman | 2016 | 2017 | 74.7% | 85.7% | 11.0% |
| Freddie Bynum | 2007 | 2008 | 66.7% | 77.7% | 11.0% |
| Alex Escobar | 2003 | 2004 | 64.0% | 74.9% | 10.9% |
| Bill Hall | 2004 | 2005 | 69.0% | 79.7% | 10.7% |
| Jason LaRue | 2007 | 2008 | 67.1% | 77.6% | 10.5% |
That’s a hard thing to pull off by accident. As a result, Pham has trimmed his strikeout rate by an unbelievable 15 percentage points, and although Pham now just looks pretty similar to what he was as a part-time player in 2015, he’s doing it now over greater playing time. And so Pham is now a player with a career WAR/600 of 4.5.
The St. Louis outfield remains crowded. Pham remains an objectively risky player, or at least a player with a higher degree of volatility. I don’t know to what extent the Cardinals actually trust him, but that trust has to be a lot stronger than it was a few months ago, and, if it weren’t for Pham, the Cardinals wouldn’t be where they are today in the standings. The best player on the Cardinals is a miracle. I don’t think I’m even exaggerating.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I didn’t know any of that about Pham. Just to be on a team, dealing with all that, would be an achievement. To be performing as he is, that’s something else!
Another great part is he will assuredly read this article as he is a Fangraphs reader.
very true
Also anyone else notice that DeJong is putting up better counting stats than Story did last year in Colorado? That’s a good caution in and of itself, but still. Major wowzers
I keep wondering when his free-swinging ways are going to come back to bite him. Diaz won’t be getting that job back anytime soon though.
Yeah, even if Dejong’s offense falls into a significant sophomore slump like with Diaz, at least Dejong can play defense.
As somebody who played with compromised vision (astigmatism + obscenely bad natural eyesight), trying to hit was hell. Even with glasses correcting both problems, tracking a fast-moving object as small as a baseball is difficult at best. It was hard enough to try and pitch! So I can fully appreciate just how much of a badass Tommy Pham is.
Although, this is why Pham will probably never get a contract extension. As it is, by the time he’s a free agent, he’ll be 33 and with vision so bad he’ll likely no longer able to manage it well enough to keep hitting well.
From Wikipedia: “In most people the disease stabilizes after a few years without severe vision problems.”
It’s possible his keratoconus can be well-managed and not continue degrading his eyesight. I hope so. All aboard the Tommy Pham Phan Club!
When I think about the words “the best player on the Cardinals” I think back to Albert Pujols going into the 2011-2012 off season. I’m not a Cards fan but a friend of mine who is, convinced me that the Cardinals should walk away from Pujols rather than sign him to a contract of $200 million. It was probably the most prescient thing anyone has ever told me – and this, coming from a diehard Cardinals fan.
I prefer Y1, Y2 tables to include Y3 to show how sticky big gains are in a stat.
Rizzo and Franklin kept their contact%.
Davis and Larue regressed about half way back in Y3.
Lance Nix was slightly worse in Y3 than Y1.
Hall reverted back in Y3.
Bynum had no Y3.
Escobar didn’t have a Y3, but his Y4 had a big increase over Y2.
Bregman is TBD.
Sure, but often those are not explained by something like….”last year the guy couldn’t see and now he can”
Well noted! … Among those with 300 PAs this year, Pham is 10th in bWAR per PA.
P.S. It seems odd that a 24% K rate can represent historically improved contact, but these are our times. (And I am old.)
I love this article! I asked a question in Derrick Goold’s weekly chat today where I pointed out Pham’s remarkable improvements and that he leads his team in positional WAR by double everyone else’s WAR, except for DeJong, who’s hitting out of his mind.
I was using that info in regards to a question about Stephen Piscotty — where does Piscotty fit on the Cards? Fowler is locked in for four years, Pham has more than earned a starting spot in 2018, and Piscotty has been a replacement-level player in 300 AB this season and is currently in the minors. The Cardinals’ farm system only has positional talent in one area — outfield. Harrison Bader, Mags Sierra, and Jose Garcia are about major-league ready, and Bader in particular might be better than Piscotty as soon as next year. Jose Martinez has been a surprisingly solid hitter, and Grichuk is probably an average hitter with better defense and baserunning than Piscotty going forward. Even with the outfield depth, the Cardinals are repeatedly linked to the Marlins’ outfield studs, and Ken Rosenthal reported that the Cards offered Piscotty + Flaherty or Weaver for Sonny Gray, so clearly the Cards have soured on Stephen.
How does that all relate to this article? Well, I think Pham’s studly play — that looks mostly sustainable — has knocked Piscotty out of St. Louis’ future plans. Stephen is a cost-controlled average-ish player, and that’s useful to rebuilding teams. If the Cardinals make a deal this winter for a talented player, I think Piscotty is part of the package that’s dealt. He’d make a lot of sense for the new owners in Miami.
But back to Pham…he’s blind in one eye! And he’s playing baseball at an All-Star level! It’s absurd! And he reads Fangraphs (he liked the Matt Adams OF fiasco article on Twitter lol), so hi Tommy! Keep crushing it!
I believe the Cards FO will give Piscotty a complete “do-over” on this season. Spring training 2018 will be a fresh start for Stephen. For better or worse, they’ve invested in him and seem committed to him.
I also think the Cards FO is correct to remain cautious about guaranteeing anything to Pham beyond this season. They have recently done similar things in regards to other young position players that have had solid seasons (albeit not as strong as Pham’s 2017). Let it play out… Let him earn it… See what trades are available in the off season.
Why would they extend Pham, anyway? He’ a 29-year-old with failing eyesight who’s already under team control for 4 more years.
With his long-term contract, Piscotty should get at least one more chance, although he’ll probably have to earn his way back into the starting lineup next year. I think Grichuk or even Pham are more likely to be traded this offseason.
Turns out Mike Petriello was onto something with this Pham kid. All-star team 2018!
yeah, Pham has been an Exit Velocity darling since the stat came out. Now that his contact rate has gone up so much, he’s making better use of that E.V.
I have keratoconus in my right eye. The only ways to correct it are by corneal surgery and hard contact lenses.
The lenses aren’t really that special. You can use a traditional hard lens or a newer soft/hard hybrid lens that has a hard lens in the middle surrounded by a ring of soft lens. The tricky part is that you have to fill the lens “cup” with liquid and then get it in your eye while keeping it full.
Everybody is different, of course, but I find that my eye can only cope with the hybrid lens for two hours or so. I could (and often did) wear soft lenses for days at a time before the keratoconus showed up. Nevertheless, the lens compensates completely for keratoconus when in, so it’s not like Pham is playing half-blind.