Updating the White Sox Prospect List, Post-Cease Trade

I saw Dylan Cease’s start on Monday night and wanted to pass along some notes and video of him following his trade to the Padres. I also wanted to share fresh spring notes on the new White Sox prospects acquired yesterday. Let’s start with Cease. Here is my video from his unbroadcast start:
Cease sat mostly 95-96 mph, with a handful of pitches in the 97-98 range. His slider was its usual 85-87, with late, nasty break and plus length for a pitch of that velocity. His curveball is a second plus or better offering at 80-81 mph and has hitter-freezing depth. He looked like a contender’s front line starter. Padres and Rangers personnel were in attendance (there were a ton of scouts there — it was one of only two Cactus League night games Monday) and left once Cease was done.
You’re probably aware that we have both Jairo Iriarte and Drew Thorpe ranked as Top 100 prospects. I’ve made no change to their evaluations, but I do have some notes on their spring looks to pass along. Iriarte sat 92-95 in his March 1 outing, which is below what you typically see from him. A scout who saw him that day noted to me that his slider seemed more vertically oriented than usual.
Thorpe threw that day, too, and was 91-93 with the same dominant changeup that spearheads his placement on the Top 100. Per my scout source, he got seven whiffs on nine changeups that day.
Both Thorpe and Iriarte are on the Top 100, so you know where they stand in the White Sox system regardless of an update. The final prospect in the trade, teenage outfielder Samuel Zavala, has a fresh report and ranking on the White Sox list, which you can either read here or here. In short, I am not optimistic about him hitting. I have him stacked in the Chicago system near other White Sox prospects who have what I consider to be extreme hit tool risk.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Good news as far as Thorpe is concerned. Reports that his velocity was down in the mid 80s were concerning, to say the least.
Yeah if his velocity was down to where it was before the Yankees got their hands on him then there would be a lot of second guessing the White Sox and their return here. There will still be a lot of second guessing because it feels light but not overwhelmingly so.
Thorpe traded twice in a matter of 3 months is rough.
Might be telling what teams actually think of him?
I believe it does: He is a very-desired commodity (in team’s eyes). So … yeah … good news if you’re Thorpe.
I’m usually in the camp that tends to knock a prospect for getting traded. But….who you get traded for matters. Soto and Cease are both pretty special.
I don’t understand why people say this. Sure he’s been traded away twice but he’s also been wanted twice. There were no shortage of offers for Soto and Cease this offseason; and in each instance the Padres and White Sox choose the package with Thorpe in it as a prominent piece. I’m personally not super high on him but the fact that he was traded twice really isn’t damning in my eyes.
I always feel like your current team has internals on you that other teams aren’t privy to. So I fall on the “being traded is a demerit” side. I admit that’s not the strongest argument, but just the *vibes* to me
Maybe this idea is plausible for an organization that had a guy for years, but when the team controlled the guy for a couple months of the winter I’m struggling to imagine what “internals” there could be that’d make any difference.
It’s almost like the Padres got him into camp, saw something unexpected, and traded him onwards. But at the same time, if that’s the story you could chalk it up to Preller being impulsive rather than having a good reason for it. I would say that it’s probably worth some mild caution but not more than that.
It’s not just vibes, it has been researched and is real; traded prospects underperform compared to non traded ones: https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/mlb/2018/12/10/18133919/baseball-trades-prospect-rankings-top-50-busts
A lot has changed in 5 years, tbf, but its always a crapshoot when a team cant resign a guy and they need to get maximum “value” in the form of minor leaguers, who fail at a surprisingly high rate.
Don’t think so. He was traded for a former cy young winner+mvp candidate
That Preller likes to make a lot of trades in one offseason? Yes, absolutely.
It depends on what you’re assuming. If Thorpe were offered by the Yankees and Padres, the player’s reputation would suffer. The script is flipped when teams ask for him.
The return the White Sox received isn’t too shabby. Iniarte and Thorpe could plug into their rotation fairly soon if not today, Wilson’s easily their best reliever now, and Zavala is the kind of faraway prospect all rebuilding teams should gamble on.
I could swear Thorpe was living 88-90 when I watched the broadcast this week. Maybe a difference in radar guns. Not trying to hate on the guy, I still think he’s got a great path to being a BOR starter with pitchability upshot.
For what it’s worth, ZiPS projects him to put up 2.1 WAR in 22 starts across 123 IP. That’s arguably a decent #3 starter if he reaches that level and maintains it for 30 starts across, say, 170 IP.
I’d take the under on that K% with his FB, but we’ll see. I have no doubt about his durability and approach though. He’s fun to watch.
His minor league numbers are incredible. I know they say “don’t scout the stat line” but the statline here is so bonkers it’s hard to write him off. I think there is a very good chance that fastball plays above the velocity and puts it more like a 45 than a 35.
This trade return feels like a Ryobi toolbox set
I know that everyone dreams on a guy like Iriarte who has big stuff and athleticism, that he’s going to develop command and become an excellent starter. It’s worth keeping him as a starter just to give him that chance but I think we know where this is likely going to end up.
He’s not unlike DL Hall that way. Hall’s stuff is at least as good and his command is similarly iffy. The return on both the Cease and Burnes deals looks way better if those guys can start. And it makes the overall returns similar too. I like the Cease return better because I like Thorpe more than Ortiz but otherwise the returns look extremely similar.
Thorpe is an unsexy profile from the perspective of upside, but he’s about as rock solid a pitching prospect as you can get. In much the same way as a batter with good discipline/contact but middling power/speed can get overlooked by industry consensus, I always think it’s better to let these technique-oriented prospects prove what they can do at the ML level.
Yeah, shades of Jordan Montgomery back in the day.