Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and happy Friday, folks! Welcome to my first chat since the Hall of Fame results were announced. My reaction piece is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rolen-into-cooperstown-bbwaa-voters-avoid-…

Jay Jaffe: and my candidate-by-candidate rundown here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2023-…

Jay Jaffe: I spoke to the Ballot Tracker’s mastermind, Ryan Thibodaux, for the first time in our collective history for today’s FanGraphs Audio here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-ryan-thibodaux-chats-ballo…

Jay Jaffe: I’ll have my five-year HOF election outlook piece on Monday, and another FGA spot for next Friday as well.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Who gets inducted first: Jeff Kent or Chase Utley?

Jay Jaffe: My guess is Kent, even though he has to cool his heels for the next three years. Utley’s facing quite a crowd on the next two ballots, and while I’ll find room for him, I don’t know that everybody who wants to vote for him necessarily will get to right off the bat.

CC: Is Sabathia the only SP who has a good chance (borderline WAR but he sure has a story, so I see two years, like Vlad) before the big 4 active guys (Max, Justin, Zack, Clayton)?

Jay Jaffe: Alas, i think that’s the case. Anybody else from the interim who might squeeze into the Hall, whether it’s Pettitte and Buehrle from the current ballot or, like Felix Hernandez (eligible 2025 alongside CC) or Cole Hamels (2026 assuming he doesn’t try another comeback) will have a long road to 75%.

Sonny: Very hopeful 2024 is Sheffield’s year! Wildly under celebrated player that I hope gets full recognition next year.

Jay Jaffe: he needs slightly fewer votes than Larry Walker, who went into year 10 at 54.6% to Sheffield’s 55%, but it’s tough to weigh the stathead favorite with strong across-the-board WAR components in a short-ish career against the traditional milestone-driven but PED-linked (in a minor way) candidacy of Sheffield.

Jay Jaffe: at worst, though, Sheffield’s 55% this year guarantees him looks from the Era Committee, though this year’s ballot construction and committee makeup offers ample evidence that there are no guarantees going down that road.

ChicagoDan: Good afternoon Jay! Like you I am happy to see that Scott Rolen crossed the threshold to election. However there seems to be a lot of hate for him getting in. Many people on my Facebook feeds have commented that he is a HOVG player and many others like Mattingly and Jeff Kent should go in before him. Why is that?

Jay Jaffe: I think it comes down to frames of reference. If all you have are triple crown stats, aren’t thinking about defense too hard, it’s easy to see Mattingly and Kent as superior, but defense matters, batting average and RBIs aren’t the best measure of offense, and those same people almost certainly missed the boat on greats like Ron Santo.

I also think that the Phillies poisoned their own well. I count both Larry Bowa and Dallas Green as two of the most noxious public personas of my baseball lifetime, sour old-school hardasses who weren’t happy unless they were ripping their players in public, and both let him have it.. That was red meat for a fan base that BOOED MIKE SCHMIDT. I can’t blame Rolen for not signing that nine-figure extension to stick around Philadelphia in light of that treatment.

Jay Jaffe: I was also struck by this passage in a piece by Katie Woo at The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/4122304/2023/01/24/scott-rolen-hall-of-fame-ml…):

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: I think that speaks to the way that the bluster of Green and Bowa may have backfired in that organization

troke: Baseball fans that aren’t familiar with more advanced metrics seem to be shocked by Rolen’s election. How do you explain how great he is, without getting into WAR or different defensive metrics?

Jay Jaffe: My elevator pitch on Rolen is that he’s easily a top-five all-time defender at third base, and depending on whether you’re going by counting stats or rate stats, somewhere in the top 10-20 offensively too. It’s rare to find players who can combine both.

Joey Votto: Assuming no huge rebound, how long do you expect it will take Votto to be elected.

Jay Jaffe: Haven’t looked too hard at what’s beyond the 5-year window (Pujols and Molina retirements) but man, even if there were a few writers who poisoned the well in Cincy regarding Votto, the writers adore him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets elected in his first year and doubt he has to wait more than 3.

Vlad’s Dad: I can’t wait to see Rolen don the Jays cap on his plaque, right?

Jay Jaffe: LOL. I think it’s either Cardinals or blank, because his time in Cincy was pretty important too

Tony: With the caveat that predicting how committees vote is a fool’s errand, looking ahead to next year’s Veterans Committee ballot, how likely do you think we are to getting Class of 2024 Hall of Famer ‘Cowboy’ Joe West and will the discourse around that make the past week seem peaceful?

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I can’t envision the masses getting worked up about West in the Hall. No, I wasn’t a fan, but he stuck around for freakin’ ever to set the record for most games umpired, and in the absence of metrics that can illustrate his shortcomings that’s an easy ticket in.

Tstats: Will next class be one of the largest induction classes in recent history? Wagner, Jones (?), Helton, Beltre, Beltran (?), Big Sexy (!), and then if the committee elects someone…

Jay Jaffe: I’d love to see a 4-man class, but the only candidates for whom i’d consider it realistic to expect to join Helton and Beltre next year are Sheffield and Wagner because there’s the urgency factor (years 10 and 9, respectively). Beltran getting in from being almost 30 points out would be unprecedented, and Jones is pretty damn far too. Bartolo, for as beloved as he is, does have a PED suspension so I think at best you’re looking at something like an Andy Pettitte-lite candidacy down-ballot

Inaccessible Rail: With pitch framing, we always talk about this as a catcher skill-and I’m sure it is a catcher skill. I don’t mean to downplay this. But I wonder if “frameability” can be a pitcher skill? Has anyone ever looked at catchers who switch teams and see their framing improve or get worse and looked at the impact of particular pitchers on the catcher’s ability to frame?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if anybody has done a comprehensive study, and it’s probably worth doing,  but this does also seem to have plenty to do with what we call command (“Control is the ability to throw strikes, and command is the ability to throw quality strikes” – Schilling). If a pitcher can hit those edges of the zone with a good framer on the other end, he’s gonna reap the benefit

Mac Q.: Impending Mauer candidacy has me thinking again about catchers as a position in the HOF. Durability is such a problem even for HOF level catchers, do you think there should be more emphasis for that position placed on peak (7 seasons, etc.) than there should be for others? I wonder if catchers have a higher percentage of their WAR come from their peak years than any other position.

Jay Jaffe: I’m pretty sure they do. Back when JAWS wasn’t even called JAWS I published the share of a player’s score that came from peak. I should look into that again.

As I reminded somebody in the middle of my ongoing Twitter brawl over Mauer, it’s very rare for a catcher to have the longevity of a Molina or a Pudge (both of ’em). Mauer, Posey, Martin, and McCann all retired in their mid-30s, and concussions were a major part of the reason. (Also, holy hell why did I go back and forth with the irate Twins fan who couldn’t remember how concussions were a factor in Mauer’s move from catcher and his subsequent decline)

Alby: Thanks for the appreciation on Scott Rolen. As someone who watched Rolen every day with the Phillies, and perhaps the last Phillies fan who still likes him, I should point out that his career was hampered by playing half his games on the concrete of Veterans Stadium. That led to back injuries that hurt his mobility ever after. But he still cut off more balls to his left than any 3B I’ve ever seen. Rollins never had to make a throw from deep in the hole until Rolen left.

Jay Jaffe: Very good point that I never even made this week. It’s hyperbole to say that turf + concrete is murder but it didn’t help Rolen’s cause at all

adambulldog: Have you addressed Sal Bando’s HoF case? He seems tantalizingly close to meet the JAWS standard.

Jay Jaffe: No, but I’ve been thinking a lot about him since he passed away last weekend and I’ve got a 3B-themed piece in mind that harkens back to leaving him on the cutting floor of the Casebook roundup (see the Buddy Bell comment). Will try to assemble my thoughts into something coherent next week

Inaccessible Rail: Edwin Diaz re-signed with the Mets before free agency started, so he was technically never a free agent, right? So is his contract considered an extension? That seems weird to me, if it is. Also, I understand that newly-signed free agents automatically have some no-trade protection, until June. Not that the Mets would want to trade him, but does Diaz have this same no-trade protection too?

Jay Jaffe: The World Series ended November 5, free agency began on November 6, Diaz agreed on the 7th and the deal became official on the 9th (based on MLB.com), all of which was during during the 5-day exclusivity period following the World Series. I believe he’s still considered to have been a free agent; Cot’s Contracts lists him as such

Oaktown Blues: Thoughts on the Irvin trade? It kinda feels like the A’s keep identifying secondary trade pieces they like, and then they forget to ask for the main piece

Jay Jaffe: Yeah I don’t know what they’re doing besides making that team even less interesting right now.

Bubba: I get the sense that people are often more upset at Cohen for spending too much than they are for teams like the A’s, Pirates, Reds, etc. from barely spending at all.  Do you think that’s accurate, and do you think the sentiment varies between writers, hardcore fans, and regular fans?

Jay Jaffe: Baseball executives and a compliant media have conditioned fans to have their pearls ready to clutch and their fainting couches well-positioned when it comes to big spending. Hell, the game’s economic structure underscores this, with the competitive balance tax at one end but no salary floor and very little transparency when it comes to the spending expectations of teams that receive revenue sharing at the other.

D: Any chance that JAWS will eventually appear on Fangraphs, using the Fangraphs version of WAR?

Jay Jaffe: No imminent plans. It’s one of those things that we’ve kicked around from time to time but i’m just not satisfied with retroactive pitching valuations based on fWAR, particularly from lower-strikeout, lower-homer eras. Could do an RA9 version but 1) I’d have to find the time to study it; and 2) i worry about confusing potential users who already have to wrap their heads around the multiple versions of WAR

John Olerud’s Helmet: Mr Jay! Just want to say thank you for all your HOF work and i think its awesome that you always point out that just to be on the ballot a player had to have a tremendous career. I think alot of people forget that even someone like who gets 1 vote still had an amazing career. Thanks again!

Jay Jaffe: You’re welcome! Thank you to everybody who speaks up publicly about how much they enjoy the one-and-done series, as it’s motivated me to put more time and effort into those profiles the last few years. They’re some of my favorites to write, and I think they help humanize the whole process. i wouldn’t have thought I’d enjoy going 2000+ words about AJ Pierzynski (2022) or Bronson Arroyo but those are some of my favorite pieces of the recent past.

Jay Jaffe: >>>>>>>This is a good time to put in a pitch for membership, by the way. FanGraphs affords me a very broad runway for all of this Hall coverage, and it takes some extra resources — those pieces are long and require diligent editing, work trickles down for others to cover the news I can’t get to, the crowdsource ballot and custom tables take time to manage, and so on. If you dig what I’m doing, please consider buying or renewing your FG membership. I promise that the time you save in loading your browser ad free over the course of the year will pay for it alone, and if you’re into reading in dark mode, that’s an option.

Expect to hear more about FG membership stuff in the coming weeks as we’ve been doing some brainstorming.

D: With Rolen finally getting in, will Helton now get over the hump? Andruw?

Jay Jaffe: Helton is a gimme putt away from a plaque. Andruw has 4 years to gain 17% and I think he’ll be fine.

Ben: Right now Evan Longoria has a JAWS score of exactly 50. Do you think Hall of Fame voters will take him seriously? On a related note, will the era committees ever rectify the Hall’s pattern of short-changing 3B and add Nettles, Boyer, Bell, Bando, and/or Allen?

Jay Jaffe: All of this falls under the Bando thing I mentioned above.

Jay Jaffe: I promise you’ll get to read my thoughts on the matter

The real dan mcgrew: mauer, molina, and posey getting into the hall?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, but not without a whole lot of debate

Adam B: Philly native, and my brother asked me this: is there any HOF inductee as despited (or at least, not embraced) by the fanbase before whom he played the most games as Rolen/Philadelphia?  Not that it matters as to his merits for induction, but there’s like no chance his number is retired here, and I don’t even know if they welcome him back for a ceremony this season.

Jay Jaffe: Dick Allen? I don’t have objective measures of booing/dislike by a fan base but he wasn’t well-received in his prime there, and he played about 160 more games in Philly than Rolen.

I will say that John Middleton’s outreach to Dick Allen — resulting in the number retirement and celebration of Allen’s career — was classy and impressive, and he’s already publicly committed to do something to honor Rolen that I would bet includes their Wall of Fame if not a retired number.

Bubba: Seeing David Wright HOF eligible next year makes me feel old.  Was there a guy you were a fan of that caused you similar feelings?

Jay Jaffe: I’m 53, and there are now generations of guys I feel that way about! Derek Jeter is a good one to mention. I moved to NYC the year before he won AL Rookie of the Year and his first World Series, watched the best of his career as a fan, covered his 3,000th hit in my first year in the BBWAA, and watched his Hall induction just 2 months before getting my first official ballot to vote in the Hall elections.

Watching and writing tributes to the wave of 300-win pitchers from my childhood who have passed away in their 70s and 80s (Seaver, Niekro, Sutton, Perry) is also worth mentioning.

Sabey Sabes: Just bought tickets to Mauer’s Twins HOF induction game in August. Looking forward to another Mauer Day next summer.

Jay Jaffe: Will do my best towards making the latter happen, I promise y that.

Nick: Without looking, how many players could you name on the 26 man rosters of, say, the Pirates or As?

Jay Jaffe: I’d have a hard time getting to a dozen between the two teams. I don’t think I wrote about the 2022 A’s once last year, but I did cover the Hayes extension

TL: Mark Buehrle not only has 60 RA9-WAR, he also has so many more intriguing accolades. Looking back over the last 15-20 years, you could make a pretty solid argument for Buehrle being the face (or one of the faces) of at least five different facets of the game: health and consistency, pace of play, pitching to contact, pickoffs/steal prevention and pitcher defense. 14 straight seasons of 200+ IP, a persistent FIP-beater, one of the best defenders ever at the position and then the shiny stuff like being the ace on a drought-ending WS team, a no-hitter and a perfect game. I’m not a Sox fan but strongly believe he should be in the HOF. What are your thoughts? Should someone fight for his case more?

Jay Jaffe: My thoughts are here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-mark…

Jay Jaffe: to date I have not been sold on Buerhle and Andy Pettitte as more than “25th percentile Hall of Famers” which is to say that in a vacuum I don’t think either is a good representative of our expectations for a HOF starter. The dearth of recent HOF pitchers has me reexamining my assumptions and my methodology, but my intermediate recalibration has been that it’s much easier to get behind a Johan Santana or Cole Hamels (and David Cone and Dave Stieb and a few others). I’m glad Buehrle’s remaining on the ballot while I deliberate, though.

The guy who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch/

Jay Jaffe: Naya, a Middle Eastern Grill place, opened near me and I’ve been hitting it hard such that it took me less than 2 months to get my first $9 off. I tried their kafta meatballs in a pita wrap today, didn’t think it was as good as the chicken shawarma, which is my go-to.

Jay Jaffe: My favorite neighborhood spot, the doner place, went out of business 2 years ago and this was a wasteland for middle eastern until recently but thankfully I now have multiple options

PhilsPhan20: Jay– I find it strange that voters will find room for Utley but not for Rollins. . as a 2000s Phillies fan, I would say that Rollins was the heart and soul of that team, the literal ‘captain’, and the one who said ‘we are the team to beat’ in ’07 that started the run. That, and Rollins counting stats are fairly comparible to Trammell . . . .do you think Rollins has a reasonable shot of entry?

Jay Jaffe: The advanced stats say Rollins wasn’t anywhere the hitter or fielder that Rolen and Utley were, and while his counting stats superficially resemble those of Trammell, the latter has 28 points of OBP and 15 point of OPS+ in his favor. If he’s going into the Hall it will be via committee. it’s possible but I don’t see an easy road there.

Joe: What will be the most laughable take on leaving a surefire HOFer off a ballot next year? I am going with “But Ichiro only hit singles!!!”

Jay Jaffe: “But he played the best years of his career in Japan!”

Marshall: It seems JAWS is usually used to compare a HOF candidate to the average HOFer at the position. Should the benchmark be something lower, like the bottom quartile? Essentially, this boils down to how many current HOFers do you think don’t deserve to be there (and using the average as the standard implicitly assumes roughly half don’t belong).

Jay Jaffe: I hear this argument with some frequency. My response is that the reality is that JAWS is clearly not the sole determinant of who gets into the Hall, nor do I think it should be; voters can and should bring other context to their deliberations as well (postseason, awards, historical importance, softer factors, and if you want to throw PED disqualifiers in there, I get it even if your line differs from mine). I myself am at least somewhat loose with JAWS in that I think anybody above 50 is probably close enough; catchers and pitchers aside, I’ve gone as low as Sheffield’s 49.3 on my official ballots.

But ultimately what I want is to make sure those guys get in. If a McGriff or a Kent does as well, without my help, that’s fine; I’m not going to throw anything at the TV. It’s just that I have the types of candidates I’m going to prioritize and encourage others to do so, particularly when some old-school hard-ass is sending in a blank or a 1-man ballot.

Jay Jaffe: talked about some of that on MLB Now on Wednsday

Jay Jaffe:

Mcgraw45: Do a players HOF odds increase for things like connection with the fanbase? For instance, if Machado ends his career as a marginal HOFer, would his odds be boosted if he stayed with the Padres and became a Padre icon?

Jay Jaffe: I think it probably helps the public perception of a player if he’s more closely connected to a team. Certainly afterwards when a team like the Mariners mounts a publicity campaign for an Edgar Martinez. But I think the effect is marginal

Doctored Ball Suspension: A hypothetical. Would you have voted for Gaylord Perry for HoF, given that he was suspended late in his career? Appreciate your efforts and generally agree with your drawing the line on PED suspensions, and Perry’s in now now matter what, but would a candidate identical to Perry today end up closer to ARod/MRam voting outcomes? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: suspensions for ball doctoring don’t bother me in the least. i’d have voted for Perry every year. And I don’t see a nouveau-Perry getting the Manny/A-Rod treatment, either. Jayson Stark, with input from Jason Sardell, noted at the Athletic that he didn’t see Beltran getting treated like h was a PED user:

According to Sardell, at last look Beltrán was showing up on 70 percent of the ballots of writers who voted for at least six players with no PED ties. Beltrán was at 55 percent with voters who supported four or five non-PED candidates. But he was at only 31 percent among those who voted for three or fewer players in that group.

https://theathletic.com/4117445/2023/01/24/baseball-hall-of-fame-2023-…

Dalton Wilcox: I know it’s the MLB HoF, but what are the chances if Future candidates are looked at more holistically with an eye in MiLB and NCAA?

Jay Jaffe: zero. I just don’t see it happening

Guest: By a twist of fate, you suddenly inherit ownership of the HOF.  How do you change the selection process?

Jay Jaffe: I’d probably go to a binary ballot system. Yes/No on all candidates, without limits, but maybe just a 5-year window.

After that, reorganize the era committees such that one contains experts on Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball. Double the committee sizes and make anybody with a first-degree connection to a candidate as a teammate, manager or executive recuse himself from that particular vote (those people can certainly give their input along with all other committee members).

Marshall: Obviously the way we evaluate players has changed a ton in the last 20+ years. But are you surprised by how much the sentiment towards Rolen changed in such a short period of time? He seems like an obvious choice now, but didn’t seem that way even 5 years ago. Which players’ candidacy do you think will be viewed so differently five years from now?

Jay Jaffe: Rolen’s debut with 10.2% didn’t happen in a vacuum; it was the result of the logjam and the Rule of 10. He benefited from electoral turnover towards a voting body more comfortable with advanced stats, but also the clearing of several candidates from the ballot either by election or attrition.

Rhymes With Taffy: I have heard people talk about the “Hall of Very Good”, but I don’t know where that is located.  Do you?  Is it in Dubuque?

Jay Jaffe: Utica

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I have so many good questions in the queue but I just can’t get to them all (might do a “virtual mailbag” sometime soon), and I have other engagements this afternoon. Thanks so much for stopping by, and for supporting my work during Hall season. We’ll do this again soon!

Alan: A writer I respect tweeted this week that Buddy Bell should be in the HOF. Apologies if you’ve covered this before, but is that something you can support?

Jay Jaffe: he’s in the book, he’ll be in the Bando article