Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/21/22

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Apologies for the delay, I had a typo in my chat code

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to the my first solo chat of the 2022 postseason

Jay Jaffe: Bear with me for a moment while I get back on track. Today I’ve got a piece about the rebound of starting pitcher usage in the regular season and postseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-starting-pitching-is-back-baby/

Jay Jaffe: Earlier this week I previewed the ALCS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/al-championship-series-preview-houston-ast… which required a quicker turnaround from ALDS Game 5 than I would have liked.

Jay Jaffe: And wrote about the Dodgers’ early exit and the increasing disconnect between the regular season and the postseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ousted-dodgers-drive-home-disconnect-betwe…

Jay Jaffe: I’ll be covering ALCS Game 3 at Yankee Stadium tomorrow

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show!

Mike: Did any of the ZiPS JAWS projections stand out to you as surprising?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t actually seen them yet, and unless I’m wrong I don’t think they’ve been published. Dan has remarked on a few of them to me and on Twitter though, and it’s interesting stuff that I’m sure to use at some point

Princess Buttercup: Over/Under on maybe Strider wins NL Cy Young

Jay Jaffe: It’s going to be Alcantara in a landslide

Matt: Who do you have winning the NLCS?

Jay Jaffe: This looks to me like a pure toss-up, and our game-by-game odds say so. I’m MUCH more familiar with the Padres at this point due to my time in San Diego this summer, my general penchant for watching more NL West than NL East, and the fact that I previewed Mets-Padres. That probably means the Phillies will win so that I have to take a deeper dive into them at some point.

CY: Thoughts on Bochy to the Rangers? Is this further evidence that the Rangers will spend big again this offseason?

Jay Jaffe: I’m a bit surprised but I guess the Bochy-Chris Young connection is strong, and at least we don’t have to worry about adding another line to his Hall of Fame plaque

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: I do think this heralds shoring up the roster towards contending, but the Rangers have A LOT of work to do after going  68-94. I don’t think Clayton Kershaw can look at what they’ve got and say “they’re a year and a good starter away, what the hell” and come along for the ride, to note the most obvious player linked to this.

Jay Jaffe: And Buster Posey aint walkin’ through that door, either.

darrrrrr: Whose HOF case benefits most from a ring this year? Verlander, Harper, Machado are locks or on track. Soto is still too young to say but already has a ring. Stanton if he has a big WS?

Jay Jaffe: A ring and continuation of postseason success would definitely behoove Stanton. While he’s hit two important homers so far, he’s just 4-for-24 so he’s going to have to turn it up.

Jay Jaffe: Gerrit Cole, who might have the best HOF shot of anybody after the big four (Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, and Verlander), could certainly continue to fortify his credentials in that area

Jay Jaffe: Guys like deGrom and Goldschmidt missed golden opportunities, not that they’re entirely to blame for their teams’ losses

Dan: Hi Jay, I love your work. It’s not a postseason question: Why wasn’t Joe Torre considered a “catcher” in HOF standards?

Jay Jaffe: I have something for this

Jay Jaffe: Short version: for classifying a multiposition player, each season’s WAR gets broken down into a share by innings, and he’s got a larger share as catcher. See the thread for details

HOF Not HOS: Better bet for the Hall – Kenny Lofton or Jim Edmonds?

Jay Jaffe: Lofton has much better numbers, both traditionally and via JAWS, but he’s probably not getting on a ballot until this goes away, and if it doesn’t, he’s unlikely to get on a ballot, period.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus…

MVP?: Sorry, Jay, my question got mangled, but essentially: why Goldschmidt for MVP/GG and not Freeman as well?

Jay Jaffe: Goldschmidt spent a good chunk of the season chasing a Triple Crown, and while he and Freeman are dead even in fWAR (7.1), Goldy has about a 2-win advantage in bWAR (7.8 to 5.9). Both have teammates in the picture as well, and I actually think Arenado might sneak in there.

Gene Michaels Ghost: Are Cashman or Boone seats getting any hotter as the Yankees strike their way out through the ALCS?

Jay Jaffe: I think Boone would have been in real trouble had the Yankees lost the ALDS, particularly with that Game 3 miscommunication regarding Holmes’ availability looming so large as they let the game slip away. Related: if I had more time and breathing room on my ALCS preview I’d have remarked upon Boone’s bullpen management to a greater degree, as it’s been [consults a thesaurus] not very good lately.

Jay Jaffe: As for Cashman, I don’t think his seat is all that hot, either. The Yankees do a lot of things well — they just won an AL East title for only the second time in five years, advanced to the ALCS for just the second time in five years, they find diamonds in the rough (Cortes, Holmes), they’ve got a good player development pipeline, etc. I don’t think it’s unfair at all to look at Hal’s unwillingness to spend to Cohen-like levels as an impediment to making that next step. Trade for Castillo (part with Peraza, maybe?) and lock him up via extension instead of trading for Montas. They probably should have signed Correa or Machado or Harper a few years ago, and while they spent on Cole, their payroll can accommodate more than that.

Princess Buttercup Again: Shouldn’t quality of mustache factor into the NL Cy Young voting?

Jay Jaffe: If it is in the AL, Nestor Cortes has a shot.

bosoxforlife: The Yankees have yet to get more than 6 hits in any post-season game. How concerning is the mismatch between pitching and hitting to you and do you think the change to the shift rule might raise the overall batting average

Jay Jaffe: It’s a concern, particularly if the Yankees can’t hit the spin the Astros are offering. I do think the shift regulations will bring batting averages up a few points but they might have to do something about outfield shifting (he said, rolling his eyes so far back into his skull that they made a gross slurping noise) for it to have as big an impact as they hope https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74168/baseball-therapy…

Blake Seams: Is Juan Soto getting nominated for a Gold Glove Nick Castellanos erasure?

Jay Jaffe: did the coaches confuse Soto with Machado? Because good lord, the fact that Manny’s not a finalist sticks out like a sore thumb

Jay Jaffe: and yes, it’s pretty silly that Soto’s a finalist given his metrics

Graa: Blue Jays a team to watch on Nimmo? They need a lefty bat and they could move Springer to a corner OF spot.

Jay Jaffe: Seems like a reasonable fit

CatcherOnTheRye: Jay, most media members agreed the Jays needed a LH bat , and some big bullpen arms at the deadline, maybe a starter. Atkins moves came up way short IMO. Was this the team he thought could win it all or do you think he was capped by Rogers as many have suggested?

Jay Jaffe: Offhand i’m not sure. it’s not like the Jays didn’t go out and add to their core in the offseason by signing Gausman, extending Berrios, and trading for Chapman, but you’re right that they probably needed to be more aggressive at the deadline than landing Mitch White, Whit Merrifield and Anthony Bass or whatever.

Jay Jaffe: I do think that payroll could become an issue with so many young players getting more expensive in arbitration, but they are staggered a bit.

darrrrrr: I’m a bit surprised at Cole. 33 bWAR through age 31 season is on the low side. With 6 years left on his deal can he average 5 war per season?

Jay Jaffe: We’ll see. he didn’t gain much ground this year thanks to his late-season slump, but I do think that with his stuff he’s certainly capable of 5-ish WAR per year

William: Could the Astros have realistically gotten anybody at the trade deadline who actually could’ve made a consistent presence in the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: I think so. Trey Mancini has been a nonfactor and that certainly left room for improvement

Jay Jaffe: Imagine if they’d added Dan Vogelbach, for example. The lineup could use another lefty.

Guest: Jay, I find this baffling. The Yankees can say on the one hand, “We love Volpe/Peraza; we don’t need Correa or Seager.” Do I disagree? Sure, but whatever. It’s not a huge surprise. But then, once Peraza is ready, the Yanks kept playing IKF, who just isn’t able to do the job. This is confounding and yet seems rather typical for the Boone era.

Jay Jaffe: It’s one thing to believe Volpe and Peraza have a bright future ahead of them, another to believe that they’re ready to play SS on a contending team in 2022. They needed a better stopgap than IKF if they wanted to steer clear of Correa et al, and probably needed to take a longer look at Peraza if they thought he could overtake IKF for the postseason. I don’t think this is necessarily on Boone; Cashman is the guy who builds the roster.

Hindsight is 20/20 but the play was probably trading for Trea Turner last summer.

Smiling Politely: Re: Kershaw (who, cmon, is not moving his kids away from their friends to finish 3rd or 4th and then retire, as he is not Tom Brady)…if he doesn’t retire, do you think they try a Roger Clemens-esque “join us later in the year, when it’s warmer, so you can limit your strain and be here for the fun?” Do you see that being viable for some other guys, too (Scherzer, etc.)?

Jay Jaffe: I can’t see Kershaw doing it like that because he doesn’t have the me-first drive that Clemens does, and would probably cringe at the idea of being a distraction on that level.

Jay Jaffe: Spitballing here but I think in general there’s a reason we don’t see more of this, and that’s because teams don’t like it and it’s not very well received by players

Aj: If Stanton reaches 500 HRs, but fails to reach 2000 hits and his WAR ends up at around 50, is he still a lock for the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not a lock but he’d have a chance.

Braves Simp: Acuna or Michael Harris ROC?

Jay Jaffe: It seems almost unthinkable that I’d have to hesitate on this question  given what he has done up to this point but I want to see a healthy season out of Acuña before I’d pick him.

darrrrrr: Who retires first, Kershaw or Rich Hill?

Jay Jaffe: haha good question. Saw the note about Hill discussing a return to the Red Sox and it warmed my heart. I hope he pitches forever, 120 innings a year

Tiger’s Fan: Do you think Ronald Acuna Jr. will return to pre injury form next year?

Jay Jaffe: i deeply, deeply hope so

true2theblue: Is it safe to consider Julio Rodriguez a lock for AL ROTY? Or should I still be losing sleep at night about Rutschman?

Jay Jaffe: I’d be surprised if it’s not Julio, but Rutschman did have a pretty great season himself and it wouldn’t be a crime if he won. Also, I don’t think any award is worth losing sleep over except Tim Raines not winning in 1987. That one still pisses me off.

Tiger’s Fan: Who do you think will produce more WAR over their careers….Julio Rodriguez, Wander Franco, or Fernando Tatis Jr.?

Jay Jaffe: Since he has yet to deal with his first significant injury, I’d probably say Julio

Noah: Have the Yankees been secretly gifted the blessing of their 1 and 2 guys being unable to go until games 3 and 4? Obviously, being in an 0-2 hole is, uhhhh, suboptimal, but it seems like having Cole and Nestor at home vs. Javier and McCullers has got to make you feel pretty good. Or is it better at all points just to have your best guys up top?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if it’s a blessing, but I don’t think things are as dire as they look

Jay Jaffe: Having said that, Houston’s lineup is MUCH deeper than the Yankees, and their bullpen is much easier for its manager to navigate, and so the Astros are obviously in a much better position

Tiger’s Fan: Do you think Juan Soto going forward will look like the 2022 version…or the version previously when he won a batting title and was hitting the ball hard?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not exactly sure what happened with that late-season slump but I do think he’s got some things to work on as far as shoring up his mechanics. Having a full offseason and spring to work with Padres coaches should help. In the long run i’m not terribly concerned

David: Lowering the mound worked wonders the last time pitching was this dominant. Is there a similarly straightforward fix this time or is the issue of pitcher dominance too complicated for a single adjustment?

Jay Jaffe: To me the issue is that while I think it may be worthwhile to tweak the specifications regarding mound height and distance for the sake of restoring balance, I do fear that we’ll have a generation of players that tries to compensate for the changes by throwing that much harder and risking injury in doing so. Pitching is hard enough; making it physically more challenging could have some ugly consequences.

I’d like to see what effect the pitch clock has on the balance. If pitchers don’t have as much time to recharge and throw max effort, maybe it accomplishes the same thing while keeping the dimensions static.

Nomah: I know it’s not supposed to, but do you think a Padres WS championship shifts the regular season MVP vote in his favor, especially given how poorly Goldschmidt and Arenado showed in their two and out?

Jay Jaffe: Awards voting finishes before the postseason starts. Those votes were cast before St. Louis went two and out.

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: If you were running the Mets, how would you approach this offseason, especially with three crucial free agents (deGrom, Diaz, Nimmo)?

Jay Jaffe: Since the farm system doesn’t have much at the ready besides Alvarez and Baty, you’re going to have to spend to replace these guys. I wouldn’t sign deGrom without some sort of mechanism like the Castillo deal had, with a vesting option that triggers if he’s able to hit an innings threshold and a cheap club option if he suffers a season-ending injury along the way. Of those three i’d guess it’s probably Nimmo who’s the most likely not to return and the place where they can use their resources to find somebody who’s playable there without going to nine figures.

Jay Jaffe: Maybe they could trade Alvarez and Baty for Trent Grisham (ducks)

Tiger’s Fan: How long do you think Ohtani can be a two way player at an all star level as both a hitter and pitcher?  Do you think at some point he will pick pitching over hitting?  He seems like the type of guy that wants to play for a long time and have a HOF career.

Jay Jaffe: we’re in such uncharted territory with him that I don’t think anybody really knows. My guess is that the pitching side of things declines more rapidly than the hitting side does, but that’s too depressing to contemplate.

Also, if he’s still pitching and hitting at an All-Star level by the time he gets to 2027, his 10th major league season, he’d probably have my vote regardless of what JAWS says, as it and WAR just weren’t built to measure him.

Ben: Aaron Judge and Mike Trout both just played their age-30 season. Judge has an 11 WAR season and an 8 WAR season and Trout has missed a lot of time the last few years. But Trout still literally has over TWICE the WAR as Judge (bWAR or fWAR). How crazy is that?

Jay Jaffe: Greatness comes in all shapes and sizes, but we shouldn’t underestimate just how f’ing phenomenal Mike Trout has been and still is. His off year is your career year. Seriously: his 6.3 bWAR year was his 9th best season, and something like only 54 other active position players have even one 6.3-wAR season in the bank.

Ben: Now that Molina and Posey are retired and Grandal looked terrible this year, which active catcher has the best chance at the HoF? Realmuto, Perez? Or someone young like Smith, Kirk, or Rutschman?

Jay Jaffe: probably Realmuto

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, time for me to call it a day. Thanks so much for stopping by! I’ll have coverage of Yankees-Astros Game 3 tomorrow night, and Game 5 on Monday night. Until then, enjoy the baseball!