Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/10/20

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my weekly chat since the end of the regular season! While the queue fills, I’ve got a bit of housekeeping….

Jay Jaffe: Here’s today’s dispatch, on the status of the universal DH and how a number of aging hitters are caught in limbo http://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-status-of-the-universal-…

Jay Jaffe: Here’s yesterday’s piece on the Indians’ plans to trade Francisco Lindor and how they’re complicated by the presence of so many other alternatives on this year’s market and next http://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-and-the-crowd-of-available…

Jay Jaffe: And, since he’s giving his re-introductory press conference right now, here’s last Friday’s piece on the Red Sox’s rehiring of Alex Cora http://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-inevitable-return-of-alex-cora-to-bosto…

Jay Jaffe: OK. As we tell our 4-year-old daughter, the question store is open….

Marko from Tropoja: If you had to put money on it, please rank Bellinger, Buehler and Seager in terms of HOF likelihood.

Jay Jaffe: I’d go with Bellinger, Seager, Buehler in that order. Bellinger has 18.7 bWAR through his age-24 season, not to mention an MVP award and a Gold Glove, while Seager has 17.6 WAR through age 26, and neither his Rookie of the Year award nor his postseason honors — deserved as they were — tend to move the needle in the same way.

Jay Jaffe: Buehler has just 5.7 bWAR, though he’s filled out the Won Some Big Games column (a topic I actually want to look at this winter in my HOF stuff, as it helps to understand the pre-war guys better)

Matt: Hi JaY!, Can we at least quiet the rumor that Lindor is a target of the Dodgers. It just doesn’t make that much sense to me. I know Lindor is much better defensively than Seager, but Seager just won the NLCS and WS MVP awards after a monster season, in addition to reportedly being uninterested in moving to 3B. Also, it seems like the Dodgers would want to resign Turner and with the DH not for sure in the NL for 2021, seems a bit premature. Can’t imagine asking Lindor to play second?

Jay Jaffe: I addressed this in my piece, but yes, I think this is a longshot given Seager’s strong season and the fact that the Dodgers just aren’t in the business of giving talent away. There’s a presumption that the Dodgers will retain Turner, and i don’t think what happened after the World Series is going to change that, though 3B might be Seager’s longer-term destination .

Mike Ortman: NL MVP?  Who do you think will win the award?  And if it’s Freeman, how much of a boost does that give his HOF candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s either Freeman or Betts, and while I’d favor Betts, Fab Freddie did have a fantastic season with the bat. Winning the award would certainly help Freeman’s case, which I think is going to rest more on traditional numbers and achievements than the advanced stats, so racking up the hardware,  including rings as well as trophies, is probably important. I wrote about his nascent HOF case here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/freddie-freeman-fastballs-and-the-hall-of-…

shach1: Does Michael Conforto get to another level next year?

Jay Jaffe: Given that he just set a career high with a 157 wRC+ and was on pace to produce about 5.4 WAR, which would also be a career high, I think the more relevant question is whether this is what the Mets can expect going forward. Color me skeptical, because both his .322 batting average and .515 slugging percentage were well beyond his xStats based on batted balls (.285 xAVG/.475 xSLG), but at least the good news from a value perspective is that the Mets kept him out of center field (where he had -4 DRS and -1.9 UZR in 268.1 innings in 2019 to go with his previous red ink) and will presumably do so in the future as well.

Guest: How much longer can the Tony La Russa fiasco go on? Any chance he resigns and the White Sox get a mulligan?

Jay Jaffe: LOL no. Given the report of La Russa’s second DUI, I hate the move even more now than I did at the time, but commissioner Rob Manfred won’t say boo publicly because Reinsdorf is a powerful owner who not only opposed his hiring in the first place but can probably muster up enough opposition to make the commissioner’s job difficult if not endanger it.

Curtis: With the new Mets direction, is the NL East the toughest division?

Jay Jaffe: It might be, but while it’s fair to expect the Mets to add some good players with those Cohenbucks, I think we’ll have to see what happens this winter. The Braves need to retain or replace Ozuna, and to fortify their rotation, and the Nationals are coming off a dreadful year and have several holes.

Mets Fan: Who says no: Nimmo and Rosario for Jo Addel

Jay Jaffe: The Angels. Easy call.

Jay Jaffe: Nimmo’s a nice player but nobody’s giving up six years of control for Jo Freakin’ Adell — no matter how bad his rookie season was — for two years of Nimmo and three of Rosario, who hasn’t shown that he can consistently hit well enough to merit a lineup spot.

Matt (Oceanside): I know Charlie Morton has seemingly been interested in only staying on the east coast, but do you think he would be a legit, cost-effective target for the Dodgers on a one year deal, say for 12-13 million. I know he had a down year era-wise, but his FIP was solid. Also, do you think Dodger players would have a problem with him since he was on that 2017 Astros team? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll help any team at that price and his phone is probably ringing off the hook, so he’ll be able to define where he wants to be in terms of general geography. I would imagine that if he joined the Dodgers there would be some awkward conversations but as he wasn’t directly involved as one of the hitters getting signals, it wouldn’t amount to much, particularly given that he’s expressed his regrets about not speaking up.

Maddoning: At roughly $7-$8 mil in his final arb year, is Kyle Schwarber a non-tender candidate?

Jay Jaffe: I doubt it. The guy projects as a 2+ win player and the Cubs can certainly get something for him in trade if they didn’t think he could help them in 2021.

Isolated Thinker: I’m sure you have discussed this in the past but will Kevin Brown eventually make the HOF one day?  He had a semi dominant 5 year stretch with a couple of other great seasons mixed in.  If not, what exactly keeps him out?

Jay Jaffe: His biggest obstacle is the fact that he was in the Mitchell Report, but additionally, he never won a Cy Young, didn’t age well due to his back woes, had a frosty relationship with the media, and was Five Percented off the ballot on his first try. That’s a lot to overcome, particularly if you don’t have a champion among the BBWAA elders who can help to get you onto an Era Committee ballot, and I don’t think he does.

Trout for President: Is Mike Trout no longer the best player in baseball?  Do you buy that he’s now a bad CF, or is that just small sample noise?

Jay Jaffe: The heavyweight championship belt still belongs to Trout, and while I’m somewhat concerned about his defense, I read a piece about how the work of Old Friend Mike Petriello — about the quality of Trout’s jumps — caught the man’s attention as something he needed to work on. That was in late August https://theathletic.com/2020722/2020/08/24/how-social-media-helped-mik…. I know he’ll put in the work to improve, so let’s see what a full season looks like once he has.

Mike Ortman: DH in the National League? How is it that it’s at risk of going away again?  Just a bargaining chip for the owners?

Jay Jaffe: The adoption of the universal DH was part of the 2020-only pandemic package, and while there’s plenty of sentiment in the game towards making it a permanent rule change — which is on track to happen with the next CBA, so long as the two sides don’t keep trying to jam forks into each other’s eyeballs every time they sit down together — they still have to resolve the rules for 2021. The owners would like to use it as a bargaining chip to get expanded playoffs, but that’s probably an overreach unless they make those playoffs worth the players’ while ($$$). So the matter will remain unsettled until the two sides can find a more equitable swap.

Guest: How about these 3Bs for the Hall: Donaldson, Rendon, Arenado, Chapman?

Jay Jaffe: The pandemic was really costly to Donaldson, whose shot at reaching 2,000 hits is almost nonexistent (he’s about to turn 35 and has just 1,066). Arenado is in great shape. Chapman’s off to a great start with a pair of 8.3-WAR seasons. Rendon, if he ages well, could have a shot given that he’s got 3 6-win seasons under his belt.

Derek: “Do you see my ring?… I’m a Hall of Famer baseball person.” is a pretty great line

Jay Jaffe: He’s a Hall of Fame manager. As a person… the reports are less glowing.

Inaccessible Rail: If we’re so high on the DH now, why not go full NFL and have completely separate offensive and defensive teams?

Jay Jaffe: Because literally nobody thinks that should happen.

Saratogian: Do you anticipate the Blue Jays back in Buffalo?  The border is still closed and COVID is no less a threat, so I have to wonder. If yes, shouldn’t they proudly wear their home city “Buffalo” on their jerseys?

Jay Jaffe: It’s really tough to know. Given the way things are going in the US as far as the pandemic, I have a hard time imagining the border opening soon, but once there’s regime change — and yes, there will be, the orange psychopath’s latest noises to the contrary — and eventually a vaccine, it might be possible. But I’d think the Jays are preparing to remain in Buffalo.

Jay Jaffe: whether that’s recognized on the uniform… eh, I don’t really care either way.

Guest: If a sportswriter can figure out something that Trout needs to work on…uh, doesn’t that say something about the quality of the Angels’ coaching staff? Shouldn’t they be the ones to identify such issues?

Jay Jaffe: well, it’s not just any sportswriter, it’s somebody who works at MLB and has access to and understanding of data at a level that few others in this field have. But you’re right, it doesn’t speak particularly well of the Angels, though whether that’s a coaching thing or a front office thing is unknowable from here. They’re in the process of hiring a new GM, though, so let’s see if communication levels improve.

Marshall: How likely do you think it is that Kershaw improves on his “peak” component of JAWS over the remainder of his career (i.e., puts up a top-7 season for him)?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a tall order but not impossible. Kershaw’s 7th best season for JAWS purposes is 2010 with 5.2 WAR (5.6 pitching, -0.4 hitting), but he hasn’t topped 5.0 since 2017, and he’s not going to get the kind of innings that he used to.

GrandyIsASadist: Would you trade Keibert Ruiz?

Jay Jaffe: in the right package, sure. I think it’s clear that the Dodgers have a pretty good young catcher in Will Smith, and if Ruiz is good enough to start as well, it makes sense to find a place for him to do it while filling another area of need. But it better be for something besides a one-year rental.

GrandyIsASadist: Is Gonsolin a starter or reliever long-term?

Jay Jaffe: Based on what we’ve seen, he’s got starter-level stuff. If the Dodgers can leave him be and let him take the ball every five days it should become quite clear.

Yanks fan: what do you see as the Yankees top priorities this offseason? I fear claims of austerity will stop them from making any meaningful improvements.

Jay Jaffe: Two big issues stand out: 1) they have to figure out how to round out their rotation beyond Cole, Garcia, Severino (hopefully), and Montgomery; they probably need at least one mid-rotation starter there and some depth beyond The Kids. 2) They also have to figure out their middle infield; is Gleyber Torres a shortstop, and if so, go out and re-sign DJ LeMahieu, or is he a second baseman, in which case, go get a shortstop, and perhaps make that shortstop Lindor and plan on rolling the Brinks truck to his door.

Beyond that is the bullpen and the catching but I think those are comparatively minor. They need 1-2 more reliable arms for the middle to late innings, and they need to figure out what’s going on with Gary Sanchez.

Isolated Thinker: Will we ever see a day where MLB considers pushing back outfield fences league-wide?

Jay Jaffe: that seems inordinately expensive, incurring construction costs AND seating reductions so no, I don’t think we’ll see it. It would be far more cost effective to simply raise the height of the fences if you wanted to curb home runs and increase the number of balls in play.

Jesse: Are you anticipating Wander Franco to be on the Opening Day roster (not necessarily the lineup), given that he’s not played past A+ ball during the 2019 MiLB season?

Jay Jaffe: I’d be very, very surprised if he starts the season on the big league roster, particularly as this is the Rays we’re talking about, where no service clock goes ungamed, and where they already have a pretty solid shortstop in Willy Adames. They’ll want to see what Franco looks like in competitive minor league games for the reason you suggest.

GiantC: Who will play SS for Oakland next year?

Jay Jaffe: When I was working on that shortstop piece, it occurred to me that Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien might swap places, because Simmons’ price tag is probably depressed by his injuries (he’s played 133 games over the past two seasons), and that’s the kind of risk the A’s might be willing to tolerate.

q: the fact that NOBODY claimed Brad Hand seems pretty indicative of collusion or am I just conspiracizing

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s collusion to the point of being provable in the courts. 30 teams are coming off a season in which they received far less revenue than they ever dreamed they would. They all need relief pitching, but they need to figure out their operating budgets for 2021 first, and committing to a $10 million reliever is rarely the first step in that, when the option is to find another guy who can do the same thing or to wrap him up under more club-friendly terms.

Tom: How do you see deGrom’s odds for Cy Young? Will writers recognize the degree of difficulty in his division, versus guys who faced the Central? How much would a 3rd Cy improve his HOF case?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect Bauer’s going to win and that the degree of difficulty in terms of competition is something that most voters won’t pay much mind to. If deGrom were to win, it would set him up as a Koufax-level exception for the Hall of Fame — somebody with 3 Cy Youngs whose numbers aren’t otherwise comparable to anybody else you’d consider Hallworthy.

Jay Jaffe: Which isn’t to say that he won’t get there on his other merits, but that his late start makes it harder to focus on where he stands.

Jonathan: Lindor hits the ball hard and doesn’t strike out. Good combo for a rebound, right?

Jay Jaffe: Yes and his defensive value gives him a strong floor as well. The guy can play, and he’ll be fine

Bob: The Steve Cohen introductory news conference was pretty stellar. That is all.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t watch/listen to it but based on what seeped into my timeline I think he sounded all the right notes and drew a very clear contrast between himself and the Wilpons. He wants to win and to please fans and is willing to hire smart people and spend money towards that end, without being too concerned about the annual bottom line. That’s a wish list for any team’s owner

ds: Thoughts on Austin Meadows pal?

Jay Jaffe: what about him? He had a dreadful year due to COVID and multiple injuries but it was just 52 games (including postseason). He’s going on 26 and not even arbitration eligible. I expect him to bounce back.

Daniel: Jay… if you’re Sandy… Springer in CF with Nimmo moving to LF, or Realmuto with a lesser CF addition? And thoughts on the Mets chasing Arenado?

Jay Jaffe: Both are reasonable paths to pursue, and both positions need attention but good catching is more scarce. As for Arenado, I don’t think any team can trade for him without some kind of resolution of his opt out after the 2021 season, though I think he’s smart enough to recognize which way the wind is blowing as far as deals of that size in the current environment.

Jesse: Do you think that Will Smith’s poor catching metrics (largely statcast’s framing metrics and baseball prospectus’s CDA) correctly portray Will Smith as one of the worst defenders at the position, or is he being somewhat misrepresented?

Jay Jaffe: he caught more innings in 2019 than 2020 and his numbers were above-average then, so I’m not terribly worried, particularly given his age.

ki: Can Springer get back to his 2019 level in 2021? Thank you

Jay Jaffe: He had a 146 wRC+ this year compared to 156 last year, with a career mark of 141. His raw slash numbers were down but his xStats were virtually unchanged. I’m not terribly concerned.

Ezra: What do you think of Lindor to the cards?

Jay Jaffe: They have Paul DeJong and they couldn’t find enough nickels to justify keeping Kolten Wong, so no, he’s not going to wind up there for 2020, and he’s not signing there as a free agent.

Mike Ortman: How about one frivolous question just to be silly. What are your top five Yo La Tengo songs?  Let’s Save Tony Orlando’s House for me.

Jay Jaffe: Hah, you caught me at a time when I am spinning a bunch of mid-90s Yo La Tengo EPs that I ripped from CD, from the Painful/Electro-Pura era.

Jay Jaffe: Five favorites: False Alarm, Sudden Organ, Shaker (obscure EP cut), Deeper into Movies, and Black Flowers

Jay Jaffe: And five more: Drug Test, The Story of Jazz, Blue Line Swinger, From a Motel 6, and Barnaby Hardly Working.

Asinwreck: Given that you have created JAWS, should we refer to you as a  a Hall of Famer baseball person?

Jay Jaffe: Haha.

Smiling Politely: Uf, Decora and Tom Courtenay still get me every time

Jay Jaffe: What’s Uf? a typo?

Inaccessible Rail: I’d go with the Yo La Tango version of “Meet the Mets.”

Jay Jaffe: seems appropriate for today

Jesse: Acknowledging the minuscule sample size, how much raking all night day year are you expecting Arozarena to do this 2021?

Jay Jaffe: Man, that’s a good question. Steamer has him at .258/.331/.448 (108 wRC+), and ZiPS at .240/.321/.404. I’m taking the over on both.

Jesse: If you had to pick a current MLB player to be your partner in a very competitive three legged race, who would you consider, and for what reasons?

Jay Jaffe: For starters somebody of similar height, and given that Mookie Betts is 5-foot-9, as am I, problem solved.

Marko from Tropoja: When you think back on the 2020 season, which five players immediately come to mind? Mine are Kershaw, C. Seager, Arozarena, Tatis and Bieber.

Jay Jaffe: those guys are pretty good…. and yes, they’re ones that would stick out in memory particularly given the postseason. I’d have to put LeMahieu in there somewhere, too, probably at Bieber’s expense, and the other guys I think about a lot are Ozuna and Freeman.

J: Which teams are most likely to cry poor and offload all of their high paid talent this winter?

Jay Jaffe: The Cubs come to mind, and I wonder about the Astros.

Curtis: Will the universal DH impact future potential HOFers and/or will the Uni DH force some sort of reset in the value of position players in that this is now a position in every lineup in baseball (i.e. should the DH continue to be penalized?)

Jay Jaffe: it will extend a few careers but I don’t think it’s gonna have a major effect on the Hall given that home run milestones have become decoupled from near-automatic elections in the past quarter century.

Mike Ortman: I know I’m a huge fan of JAWS, and I’m guessing most of us on this chat are.  But what about someone like Giancarlo Stanton, who could feasibly still hit a revered counting stat like 500 HRs, (and fall short by JAWS).  The writers would very likely vote him into the Hall, would he have your vote?

Jay Jaffe: On that note… one hard thing for Stanton to overcome beyond the fact that he may not accrue nearly as much value as a full-time DH is that if he gets to 500 there will always be talk about how he should have gotten to 600 or even higher given his raw power and talent. He’s averaged just 108 games over the past decade, meaning that he’s lost about 3 years to injuries. I don’t think he’ll be an automatic berth by any stretch.

Smiling Politely: …Did we ever find out why one of the potentially-contending teams with bad OFs (SFG, CLE, etc.) didn’t sign Puig? Is he really less bearable/more distracting than Daniel Murphy or Trevor Bauer?

Jay Jaffe: We did not, but this isn’t going to help his job search https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/29/yasiel-puig-sued-alleged-sexual-battery…

Andrew: How many starting pitchers are available on this winter’s market that you would be comfortable with starting a World Series game?

Jay Jaffe: The Puig one was gonna be my last question but ugh, that’s a bad note to leave on, so this one, assuming we’re not talking about opener-type starts: Morton, Bauer, Gausman, Tanaka, Taijuan Walker, Rich Hill… that’s probably about it at this stage.

Jay Jaffe: And with that, I’m going to call it a day. Thanks for stopping by, folks! Look for some Hall of Fame-related stuff starting next week, including (hopefully) another edition of this chat.

Jesse: Not a question, just wanted to give props to the Fangraphs team for being super accessible and engaged with the community. Both you and DanSym for being cool

Jay Jaffe: Thanks!