Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/3/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Greetings from Brooklyn, where it’s almost freezing — which seems genuinely balmy after temperatures in the teens all last week. We’re apparently in the midst of the longest stretch of sub-freezing days in NYC in the past 65 years. Hoping my new space heater arrives today, but wish it had been around last week (I have a lower-powered but less energy-efficient one).

Jay Jaffe: After taking a few days off last week to recuperate from te Hall of Fame election cycle crunch, yesterday I wrote about the Giants signing Luis Arraez to a one-year deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-second-thought-giants-sign-free-agent-l…

Jay Jaffe: Today I have the first of a two-piece series covering the still-available free agents. This one rounds up the position players and will probably go up while I’m mid-chat; apologies if I have to duck out here and there to answer an editorial query.

Jay Jaffe: Two things to note before we get started, both of which went by on Bluesky. First, today is the day that the BBWAA has published the ballots of all Hall of Fame voters who granted permission; apparently it includes about 100 which aren’t in Ryan Thibodaux’s Tracker. He and his team will be adding those. https://bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballots/

Jay Jaffe: Second, distinguished FG alum Eno Sarris has updated Stuff+ and the new data will be making its way to our site soon (https://bsky.app/profile/enosarris.bsky.social/post/3mdxtcmtwi2)

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show

TKDC: For an extremely borderline candidate, would you ever give even a little consideration to WBC heroics for HOF voting?

Jay Jaffe: I always try to note that stuff in my candidate profiles; Adam Jones comes to mind (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-adam…) but he wasn’t a serious candidate for election. I don’t think it’s out of bounds as something that could tip the balance for a voter, particularly as the WBC is an MLB production.

SoxMan: Should I feel a little disgusted that the Red Sox of all teams sent an asset out to drop salary? This Hicks trade seems gross and just away for ownership to save money.

Jay Jaffe: It’s 2026, Mookie Betts has three World Series rings from his time with the Dodgers, and you’re still surprised the Red Sox are making decisions more motivated by salary than near-term competitive concerns?

sodo mojo: Thought on the Donovan trade?  As a Mariner’s fan this seems like the last piece in a decent off season for the Mariners and seems like it should provide a little separation from the Astros.

Jay Jaffe: I was immersed enough in my own work and non-work yesterday that I haven’t had time to read up on the prospects sent to St. Louis, but near-term, I like this addition for the Mariners even if third base isn’t Donovan’s best position. Here’s Ben Clemens’ writeup https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-fine-addition-to-their-collection-…

Larry: If you had to pick one for 2026, who would you rather have between McLean, Burns or Misiorowski?

Jay Jaffe: Misiorowski because he’s got some top-shelf stuff and good enough command of it. Not that the other guys are slouches!

Nat: I think we’re all desperate to know if you have a take on the bellicheck/kraft snubs. For me, I’m wondering about the voting structure changes: is the NFL trying to make sure no one gets elected ever? It seems even tighter than the baseball structure.

Jay Jaffe: I thought it was hilarious that Belichick — whose name I still rarely spell correctly on the first try — was snubbed mainly because my supply of schadenfreude towards the Patriots dynasty is never-ending. Objectively it seems pretty stupid because he’s obviously one of the great coaches in NFL history, and man, who gives a damn about the owner?

Jay Jaffe: A process that could lead to that outcome does seem pretty broken, but I don’t have any real insight into how that happened.

I will be watching my one football game of the year this Sunday, as backdrop for an epic feast. Hoping the Seahawks — whom I grew up rooting for  before losing almost complete interest in football about 15 years ago — can avenge their SB loss from whenever against the Patriots.

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: If Jerry Koosman hadn’t pitched on the appalling NYM 1977-78 teams, “earning” an 11-35 W-L record in those two seasons despite pitching pretty well, would he have been close to Hall of Fame status?

Jay Jaffe: Hmm, i guess he’s not far off. I don’t care much about W-L (though voters place higher value) but even if you double his bWAR for those bad teams from 4.5 to 9.0, that still only takes him to 61.5 WAR/about 38.0 peak WAR/ and almost a 50 S-JAWS. While Sabathia was just elected with 50.8 S-JAWS, the era from which Koosman hails is already pitching-saturated and still has one notably better hurler outside the Hall in Luis Tiant Jr. (53.7 S-JAWS), not to mention the historically significant Tommy John.

Rick Danger: Chances the Mets scoop up Framber because no one gives him 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: probably not high because of the tax implications

Uninvited Guest: How do three team trades come about? If they can’t get across the finish line on their own, do teams just call the Rays to try to make it work?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s often something along the lines of “well, you know you guys don’t have the lefty-hitting corner outfield prospect that I’ve spent all winter trying to find but you know who does? The Rays. Why don’t you call them and see if we can get them in on this?”

Jay Jaffe: it might also often be the personal connection between executives. If two of them are talking about some other deal or something else and one says, “by the way, if you do anything with the [team], let me know, we’ve been trying to get ____ from them but we don’t match up.”

War2D2: Hi Jay! Thanks for all you do! Do you guys (that is, Fangraphs as an entity) ever go to spring training as a group, or do you mostly depend on Eric reporting from his back yard?

Jay Jaffe: We did a spring training staff trip in 2019 and saw a bunch of games — it was a blast  — but post-COVID we haven’t done one. We did do the Arizona Fall League in I think 2021 or ’22. It’d be nice to get back.

Clay: I’ve seen a few writers say they’ve reevaluated their standards for pitchers on the HOF ballot because of the way the role of the starter has evolved in the last 20 years. Do you agree with this? I, for one, take issue with someone like Felix Hernandez being graded on a curve, whereas Johan Santana received no love at all.

Jay Jaffe: You can only vote on the ballot in front of you, and Johan Santana is not up for election, nor will he be until the 2029 Contemporary ballot by a different voting body. He was crowded off the 2018 ballot less because he got “no love” than because of the PED-related backlog. Since then, there’s been a lot of turnover among the BBWAA voters and many have spoken up favorably about Santana, regretting what happened; I’d bet he would be on a path towards eventual election if he were on a more recent ballot.

Jay Jaffe: That voters are reevaluating their standards is a good thing, but unfortunately the process for retroactively cleaning things up is a much slower one than the annual BBWAA ballots. I do expect Santana to get another look in a few years; we’ll see how that lands.

Tal: Does Nolan McLean’s surprising dominance against LHB look sticky? Feel like that’s been a big factor in the leap in his value as a prospect since his MLB debut

Jay Jaffe: I can’t offer a scouting-based take but will note that lefties didn’t do anything against his curve (already a plus-plus pitch by our prospect team’s evaluation) or his changeup (graded as 45/50). We’re talking about small-sample data here but what he did with the pitch in his 48 innings in the majors for real, the grade probably deserves to be a bit higher.

Cromulent: Out of curiosity, do we know if the rate of HOF induction in recent years is higher, lower or on par with historical trends? Would it matter to you or other voters you talk to (in either direction)?

Jay Jaffe: historically speaking it’s lower — it’s always going to be lower to some degree because committee elections pump the numbers up considerably. Mike Petriello has written about this (https://www.mlb.com/news/future-hall-of-famers-who-will-play-in-2026) and so have I

Jay Jaffe: Here’s an updated graph showing HOFers per team per season

Jay Jaffe:

Rick Danger: Do the Mets go with Baty in LF to start the season? I’d guess he produces more offensively than Benge at least in the beginning with fair enough defense

Jay Jaffe: I think if he shows a grasp of the position during spring and doesn’t have any other issues, Baty in LF is probably the path of least resistance — and would be a very good development for the Mets, as his positional flexibility would help make up the ground lost when they traded Jeff McNeil

PinstripedPride: Do you think the Yankees are sabotaging themselves at the margins (bench, bullpen) just to stay under a certain dollar amount? Consolidating how much they are spending isn’t it a sad strategy?

Jay Jaffe: Well, they’re already well above the top tax threshold, they’ve shown some knack for finding journeymen relievers and turning them into higher-leverage guys, and they’ve got a recently well-regarded prospect (Dominguez) ticketed for a fourth-outfielder role after a rocky but not entirely lost rookie season. I do think they should have something stronger than the McMahon/Rosario platoon at 3B, and Anthony Volpe (who will miss part of the season due to shoulder surgery) is running out of rope. So yeah, they’re probably in need of a Brendan Donovan-type guy who could play multiple positions. too bad nobody like that was on the trade market this win — wait, hang on.

Bog: What are the odds Arraez plays 2B all year?

Jay Jaffe: I think a fair bit of it depends on Rafael Devers’ defense (he has just 29 games at first ) and Bryce Eldridge’s acclimation to the majors. If the latter gets sent back to Triple-A, I think you’ll see Arraez doing more DHing than originally anticipated, with Casey Schmitt at second base

Sirras: How different would the MLB landscape be today if the Giants and Dodgers remained in NY? What locales would have teams that don’t exist today? What current teams (aside from the obvious Mets) would not have been formed?

Jay Jaffe: There’s a fun one to ponder. I think one of the big upshots would have been the White Sox leaving for the West Coast by the ’70s (which they almost did before the Mariners were introduced) leaving Chicago a one-team town for awhile. If not them, somebody would have moved to LA and SF in the 1960s though.

Jay Jaffe: here’s my piece on the free agent position players still available. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/february-free-agent-watch-useful-role-play…

Jay Jaffe: And while we’re at it, my musical interlude of the week: While chatting, I just spun Ty Segall’s most recent album, Possession — it’s the best of his many albums that I’ve heard in awhile, guitar-driven psychedelia with a bit of a 1970s AOR bent. Also digging Fuzz’s Fourth Dream: Singles, Demos and Rarities; that’s Segall’s other band where he plays drums instead of guitar. An early review described them as sounding “like a murder-obsessed Blue Cheer,” heavy psych rock.

Jay Jaffe: Segall’s vast catalog is worth exploring if you’re into that kind of stuff.

Claude: The 2007 Mets — of the well-discussed horrific meltdown — now have four HOFs, with Wright and Delgado both making surprising leaps this year.  No question — just amazing the talent that team had and how much that collapse still weighs over the franchise.

Jay Jaffe: Indeed, though I’m skeptical Delgado or Wright join them in Cooperstown anytime soon.

Austin D.: What player has/had the biggest disconnect between how good you thought they were as a kid and how good advanced stats tell you they were?

Jay Jaffe: Steve Garvey certainly comes to mind given how much I watched the Dodgers and how he was perceived.

kwabbit: With Pedroia and Rollins doing quite well in voting this year, are we going to be looking at Hall of Famer Marcus Semien in 10-15 years if he can scrape together a few more 3 WAR seasons? 49.2 bWAR already, more than Rollins and just 2.6 less than Pedroia.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t call what Rollins and Pedroia did in the voting “quite well” (25.4% and 20.7%, respectively); they made gains on a very weak ballot but I’m not yet ready so say those results suggest future election. As for Semien, I’ve been saying for a couple of years that he’s a stealth candidate, but I think his low batting average (.253) and the weight of his value that rests on defense given a modest 108 wRC+ will make him a harder sell to the voters. If he can’t reverse the offensive decline that began in 2024 and really took him to the depths last year, I don’t see much chance of him getting elected.

RetireNutting: Why would the Pirates load up on right side of the IF and DH platoon bats and leave 3B empty of league average hitters? What’s the plan for Cherington? `Almost having a league average offense makes it look like I’m trying with this rotation?`

Jay Jaffe: They apparently still see something in Jared Triolo that the rest of us don’t? I mean, they spent how long with Ke’Bryan Hayes bleeding outs all over the place so it’s like they forgot you can get offense out of 3B. I suspect they could dip into the low-cost free agent pool for someone like Ramón Urías or his brother to offer a bit more fortification but that’s still a below-average solution

joe: do you see Konnor Griffin making the opening day roster for the pirates

Jay Jaffe: With just 21 games of Double-A under his belt, I highly doubt it.

WinTwins0410: Jay, I know you don’t write about every major leaguer who goes to the great beyond, but can we have a comment from you about Dave Giusti, the palmballer who was a key part of the Pirates’ 1971 World Series-winning team?  He died Jan. 11 at 86.  His was an interesting career — starter converted to a reliever.

Jay Jaffe: Don’t know a ton about him but he was absolutely nails during the 1971 postseason after leading the NL with 30 saves during the regular: 10.2 scoreless innings split evenly between the NLCS and World Series; he did allow one inherited baserunner (out of 5) to score and so was charged with a blown save during the Pirates’ Game 6 loss to the Orioles.

Jeremy: With the many mlb.com writers now voting for the HoF, what’s your sense of how the balance of views in the electorate has changed? Just offhand, it seems like you could roughly summarize many newer voters’ view as “if you had 10 good seasons (say, 3+ WAR), a few of which were great, you’re a Hall of Famer.”

Jay Jaffe: I think the only generalization I’d say at this point is that they’re far more fluent in advanced statistics than the generation of writers whom they’ve largely replaced. Which is what you’d expect.

Crabcakes: FGDC projects Valdez + Gallen + Bassitt + two of Martinez/Verlander/Littell as better than about half of MLB rotations, including “at least sort of trying to win” teams such as the Orioles, Cubs, Angels, Astros, Giants, DBacks, A’s, Guardians, and Padres.  My question is, “it’s February!  Sign some starting pitchers already!”

Jay Jaffe: Hence my two-article plan, and yes I noted in conceiving it that a rotation made of the top five available would be roughly mid-table relative to the 30 teams.

TameImp: As a kid I always remember reading that Pie Traynor was the best 3b in history pre Mike Schmidt and when you look at him wirh modern stats it’s tough to reconcile.

Jay Jaffe: I wrote a fair bit about Traynor in The Cooperstown Casebook. High batting averages during a higher-offense era and superficially impressive defense that at the very least is not upheld by the data that goes into TotalZone.

Alec: I’ve been surprised by how low Torii Hunter’s HoF voting percentage has come in at, growing up he always seemed like the premier outfielder who was a good blend of speed and power. I know Andruw Jones is a bit above Hunter in terms of compiling stats, career WAR, and some accolades, but is the gap between them so large that Hunter couldn’t hit 10% of ballots in what was considered a lighter class?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s a sign that voters are looking at the defensive metrics — and WAR — beyond just counting Gold Gloves and admiring highlight films. And as I’ve noted there’s a couple hundred runs between Andruw and Torii based on that data.

Farhandrew Zaidman: the Rockies seem meaningfully better, but still likely to lose 100 games. What’s a realistic timeline to return to 500 ball?

Jay Jaffe: The sun is projected to burn out in about 5 billion years so the race is on.

Bog: Does the league send out an email whenever a team DFA’s a player? Is there a Google Sheet all the POBOs are on listing players currently on waivers? How do teams keep track of all these minor moves throughout the league?

Jay Jaffe: The league has an internal system that informs teams of all player moves. I’m not sure how much has changed since 2018 but Rian Watt wrote about it then https://blogs.fangraphs.com/inside-baseball-how-mlb-transactions-actua…

Farhandrew Zaidman: In a fictional world where we have time machines, say we throw an “all time WBC” tournament. Each country gets their all time greats. I feel confident USA wins – but who rounds out the top 3?

Jay Jaffe: Probably the Dominican Republic and Cuba. B-Ref has a page that shows cumulative WAR by country https://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/country_bat.shtml. The DR is second, Venezuela 3rd, with Puerto Rico (which is a US territory but often broken out for such comparisons and has its own WBC team) 4th and Cuba 5th — but we know a whole lot of Cuban talent either never made it over here due to Castro or spent a lot of prime years still on the island.

Fun exercise to contemplate.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, that’s it from me for this week. thanks so much for stopping by!