Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/18/22

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat! It’s a lovely day outside in Brooklyn and I’ve got spring baseball on my TV

Jay Jaffe: it’s been a busy week writing about transactions. Yesterday alone I wrote up the Kris Bryant deal (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kris-bryants-enormous-payday-highlights-qu…) and the Zack Greinke/Mike Minor/Amir Garrett ones (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zack-greinkes-return-to-kansas-city-headli…)

Jay Jaffe: and when I haven’t been covering transactions I’ve been burrowing into my Positional Power Rankings assignments. First up: first base, where you might have heard about a few transactions

>this guy<: Jay what is your favorite trade or signing since the lockout ended? and least fav?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t like anything about the Reds’ sequence of deals. Saw them as contenders for a Wild Card spot with a little TLC but they seem intent upon getting into the draft lottery.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not wild about the Rizzo signing by the Yankees but the projections for  him are stronger than my gut instinct. And I’m still not sure what to make of the Kris Bryant deal

Jay Jaffe: on the other side, happy to see Greinke go back to KC because that’s what he wanted, think the Dodgers did pretty well to get Freeman, and that Luke Voit is a nice pickup for the Padres

Thomas: Do you know if the roster rule limiting the number of pitchers that was supposed to be in effect in 2020 is applying this year? I haven’t heard anyone mention anything about it

Jay Jaffe: It’s supposed to go into effect, but due to the shortened spring training there’s also the possibility of expanded rosters to start the year, which may put that rule (no more than 13 out of 26 players can be pitchers) on ice temporarily

zurzles: Assuming Sabathia is elected – would he get in if he finishes his career with, say, 2800 Ks rather than 3100? Should he get dinged for finishing his career in a much more pitcher-friendly strikeout environment than he started, similar to big sluggers of the steroid era? His case seems interesting to me, because he’s really a prime beneficiary of the increased K environment of the mid-late 10s – I don’t think he would’ve cleared 3000 otherwise.

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about this when he passed 3,000 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cc-sabathia-joins-the-3000-strikeout-club/

Jay Jaffe: He has benefited by pitching in a high-strikeout era, which helped him become the third lefty to 3,000, though his K%+ — strikeout rate indexed to the league, like wRC+ — is just 114, the lowest of the 3,000 club.

Jay Jaffe: I think there are a lot of facets to his Hall of Fame case that go beyond just the strikeouts, particularly his stepping up in 2008 with the Brewers and ’09 with the Yankees, his general durability and his late-career reinvention after confronting his alcoholism and his diminished fastball

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that he’s a slam dunk but I think his odds are better with 3,000 K than without. Glad his election seems more likely than not.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: How good or bad of an experience is it to attend the Hall induction ceremony? On TV, everyone in the general crowd looks miserable sitting on uncomfortable chairs while baking in the hot sun and squinting to see the stage.

Jay Jaffe: Having been to the last four of these, I can say that it has its pros and cons, even as I’ve been lucky enough to have better seating than the masses  It’s cool to see the pageantry and the speeches, but not easy to manage the exposure to the sun and heat over the course of a very long ceremony (and we’ve had some doozies lately), and the other logistics, including parking and lodging, can be a pain in the ass to navigate. But Cooperstown is fantastic to visit, the vibe is awesome on Induction Weekend because everybody there is nuts about baseball, and if you’re coming to see a favorite player get inducted, what could be better?

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is the Greinke situation unique or do the Royals’ efforts to build good relationships with its players help them when signing players? (And obviously it would be more of a tiebreaker consideration than turning down more money elsewhere).

Jay Jaffe: whoops didn’t mean to do 2 in a row from one reader but both good questions. I don’t think the Greinke situation is so unique but the Royals organization generally gets high marks on its people skills from what I have heard

Bryan Price is Right: The Reds waive LHP Wade Miley and his $10 mil salary.  OK fine, maybe they are broke.  But later, they give up something of value in order to acquire LHP Mike Minor and his $10 mil salary.  Am I wrong in thinking that Wade Miley is actually better than Mike Minor?  Is there a logical way to explain the strategy here?

Jay Jaffe: Miley is significantly better than Minor, especially at a similar price. Again, i have no idea what the Reds are doing but it feels like they’d rather sneak into the draft lottery and see if they can somehow score a top pick while winning 74 games instead of 64

Pumpsie Green: That was quite the week! Thanks to you and to everyone there for the best analysis in baseball!

Jay Jaffe: You’re welcome! We’ve been planning for this week, with all of the big remaining free agents assigned to our writers so that we could do some preliminary analysis and the jump on the deals. A whole lot of people have stepped up to keep us turning the stuff around quickly, and Meg has done a great job of coordinating the traffic.

Bottom line: it’s great to have baseball moves to think about rather than the labor situation, and we’re all excited for the season to start

x2R: What do you prefer: full on robot umpire or 3 challenge per game with robot aid?

Jay Jaffe: For as impatient as i’ve been with umpires while calling for ROBOT UMPS NOW (see https://twitter.com/search?q=%40jay_jaffe%20robot%20umps%20now&src=typ…) Im ambivalent about their arrival now that I see the pros and cons as it’s been tested. I’d like to see how the challenge format works in practice, but I think it could help.

Cynthia: What are your expectations for the Brewers this year? They have strong pitching and have exceeded expectations the past few years, but their lineup seems to be patched together with duct tape and glue.

Jay Jaffe: We have them projected as the NL Central’s best team, with a forecast of 90 wins to the Cardinals’ 83. Their pitching is excellent, as you note, and while heir offense looks middling, I think it can be enough. They’ve been pretty relentless about trying to upgrade even in-season so I’m not ready to judge the lineup as a finished product yet. Their chances would be helped if Yelich could return to something closer to his MVP form.

Guest: What’s the next move for Padres after getting Luke ?

Jay Jaffe: Finding an outfield corner bat or two and Eric Hosmer somewhere else. In our depth charts, their LF, RF and 1B project to produce a combined 2.7 WAR. That won’t cut it in a division where Freeman and Betts could both have 2.7 WAR by the All-Star break.

Chris: Why is there zero rumors on Jansen?

Jay Jaffe: Teams have been pretty busy in pursuit of bigger game but according to the LA Times, he’s got interest from teams including the Dodgers. He could be back. https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2022-03-16/kenley-jansen-….

Chris: When will story sign? Has his market collapsed to where he should take a 1 year deal or will he circle back to the mariners?

Jay Jaffe: Via Jon Heyman, the Giants, Red Sox and two mystery teams are in the mix.

. he did not have a great 2021 season and might be better served by trying to rebound, but I think he’ll be fine.

blue jays: you think we add another bat ? if so who do you think would he a good get

Jay Jaffe: I suspect that the trade to acquire Chapman means that they won’t also land Jose Ramirez. I do wonder if they’re players for Story, who could play second base, via a short-term deal

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes:

Um.

Jay Jaffe: Love this story. It ought to be a movie. And I think it’s important to add more from Showalter to the public record:

Jay Jaffe: The question is why this has taken 10 years to come to light. What beat reporters were falling down on the job in 2012?

Gashouse Gorilla: Thoughts (and prayers) about the Voit transaction?

Jay Jaffe: He’s a player with notable weaknesses (strikeouts, defense, health) but he’s an excellent hitter who could flourish elsewhere, even with a move to a less hitter-friendly ballpark

Cynthia: Who do you think is the most exciting player to watch right now in the majors? Ohtani’s two-way mastery? Fernando Tatis’ incredible athleticism in everything he does? Soto’s antics and godly plate discipline/hitting ability?

Jay Jaffe: all of the above but Ohtani’s combination of skills at that elite level is something that hardly anyone who’s alive has seen.

Zach: What’s the deal with Bauer? Somewhat weird that they don’t have a resolution to this matter after 9 months.

Jay Jaffe: It has taken forever, agreed, but the lockout prevented MLB from moving forward on the case and from what I understand, one additional complicating factor in the criminal case was a recall effort against the LA District Attorney. There was also at least one other woman who came forward to accuse Bauer, and while there’s no criminal case there IIRC, the league may still be investigating.

david: I know the dodgers are going to rotate guys around but what do you think their main alignment will be. Muncy at second taylor in left and pollock at dh? or pollock in left taylor at second and either muncy or freeman at dh?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’re going to use so many permutations that calling for “a main alignment” is probably an exaggeration. I do see Muncy getting plenty of time at 2B with Taylor in LF and Pollock at DH more often than, say, Muncy at 1B, but I think he’ll DH a fair amount too, especially in the early going as he recovers from his UCL tear

Kenrick: What do you think of the Chapman deal for Toronto?

Jay Jaffe: Big win for Toronto, which was smart to add at a point when marginal wins can mean a whole lot for playoff and division chances. I don’t know much about the prospects but it appears more quantity than quality, with Hogland a 45 FV and the others 35+ or 40s — useful players but nobody to lay awake at night worrying about having traded.

Ben: What is your favorite park to see a game at that isn’t the primary team you support?

Jay Jaffe: Petco and Camden Yards, each of which I’ve been to only twice. Will be adding to the total for the former this summer as the Jaffe-Spans are spending 2 weeks in San Diego this summer, one for work and one for a  family get-together.

Haven’t been to Camden Yards in ~10 years but it’s an excellent park that seems wasted on such a crummy team.

Tony: Will the vaccine mandate in NYC be changed at some point or will several Mets and Yankees miss half the season without pay?  Your prediction please, thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I think the mandate will be adjusted at some point, but I think the unvaccinated Yankees and Mets are playing chicken with City Hall, and I have zero sympathy for their fates if they do miss games. I also think that Canada ain’t playin’ so even if these guys get cleared to play in NYC, the Yankees especially could suffer if they’re playing shorthanded against a fellow AL East contender.

Harper’s Harpies: If Bryson Stott is MLB ready are there any realistic trade opportunities for Didi?

Jay Jaffe: Gregorius is coming off a 68 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR season, forecast for 1.3 WAR, and set to make $14.5 million. I don’t think teams are lining up around the block to trade for that? Maybe if the Phillies eat 50-75% of the salary they get a low-level arm of some note but I wouldn’t be optimistic.  

Jay Jaffe: BREAKING:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: we have a monkey picture

adambulldog: If she becomes the first female manager in MLB, does Rachel Balkovec make it to the HOF? What are Kim Ng’s chances at the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: If they get to the Hall of Fame it will be on the merits of their respective careers, including but not limited to trailblazing, and they would appear to have a whole lot of years ahead of them. I’m sure they’ll get some kind of recognition within the institution even if they don’t get plaques. But let’s see where they go with the opportunities they have

Sam: How can we quantify the significance effect of players in the AL East likely having to sit out away games in Toronto if unvaccinated? Assuming a player will play ~150 regardless but in this case 9 of them are in division as opposed to what we’d expect if games missed were more randomly distributed?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a question for Dan Szymborski and the ZiPS projected standings

Trevor: Are the Angels pursuing a free agent SS?

Jay Jaffe: I imagine they’ll do *something* but if you’re holding your breath for Correa or Story, don’t. Funny thing, right now we have David Fletcher projected to get most of the playing time at both 2B and SS. I suspect that unless they do something they’ll roll with Fletcher at SS and use Duffy, Rengifo and/or Wade in the mix at 2B. Which isn’t very inspiring but then the Angels haven’t been very inspiring lately, Ohtani and Trout excepted.

mmddyyyy: Do we know what the tiebreakers are now?

Jay Jaffe: Assuming you mean to determine playoff spots since there won’t be tiebreaker games (😢😢😢) ? I imagine they’ll be along the lines of what’s used to seed and determine home-field advantage under the previous system: head-to-head records, intradivision records, intraleague records, last half of intraleague records, last half + 1 game, etc.

Jay Jaffe: It will suck compared to the excitement of a do-or-die game.

Sirras: Phillies supposedly in on Nick C. That could mean him, Schwarber, and Hoskins all on one team. Why does Dave Dombrowski hate defense?

Jay Jaffe: Don’t forget Alex Bohm and his -19 DRS at third base in about a season’s worth of playing time.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know why the Phillies are so bad at this aspect but the issue predates Dombrowski and the current cast of characters. Remember this? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-worst-drs-weve-ever-seen/

Jay Jaffe: Hoskins put up -19 DRS in left field that year but the others weren’t on the team.

Jay Jaffe: You acquire talent and you try to come up with hitters and there are only so many places you can hide bad gloves and the Phillies have been over the limit for awhile.

Jared: If the jays sign Story I’m shaving my beard and leaving just the Stache in your honor.

Jay Jaffe: Ok, you’re on the honor system but if this happens, I’ll publish before and after pics if you provide them

mmddyyyy: How many articles are you working on at a time?

Jay Jaffe: Depends on the time of year but in-season I mostly have one at a time, with maybe a rainy-day project (often HOF) on the back burner. In the offseason, technically i’m working on all of them for the HOF series, taking notes on what’s changed since the last year and on new candidates even before I sit down to write up or revise the profiles

Yankees Injury List: What do the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz this year?

Jay Jaffe: Give him some time at Triple-A (he has just 6 games there) and then bring him up to play shortstop sometime this summer if it goes well? I don’t have much more insight than that right now but we have him taking the bulk of the playing time there in our Depth Charts forecast

Matt: Is San Diego the best city in the United States? I mean if God wanted to create the perfect baseball city/park, it would be Petco, right? I mean beautiful park in a beautiful area of a city’s weather that seems to be made for baseball.

Jay Jaffe: San Diego is lovely, with a lot going for it. it is a big favorite in the Jaffe-Span household.

Hmmm: When Greinke is elected to the HOF, will he give a speech? I know about his struggles with anxiety and can imagine doing something like that is incredibly anxiety-inducing.

Jay Jaffe: the last person who will tell you anything about what will happen if he’s elected is Greinke. I suspect he’d give a speech but it’s cleraly something he doesn’t want to talk about right now

Matt: If the Red Sox are interested in a Story or Correa, does that mean Bogaerts to 3B and Dever to 1B? Or do you think they move on from Devers?

Jay Jaffe: I think the whole situation is complicated by Bogaerts’ opt out after this season. If they were to land Correa or Story on a long-term deal they might trade Bogaerts, with Devers at 3B and eventually Casas at 1B. If they were to land Story on a short-term deal, he’s probably 2B for now, and SS if Bogaerts opts out

Zach: Are the Guardians insane for reportedly asking for Manoah and Moreno as part of the potential return for JRam?

Jay Jaffe: they can ask but with just two years of club control left, I don’t see them getting even one of those guys as a headliner.

Guest: Someone please tell someone from the Orioles that those appear to be chimpanzees, not monkeys.

Jay Jaffe: don’t let fact-checking get in the way of a good story.

Marshall: If Freeman hits his Zips projections, do you think he’s a hall of famer? His overall stats would look very similar to helton, but with a much flatter peak.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really see a Hall-caliber peak yet

Jay Jaffe: First Base (42nd):
43.1career WAR |33.47yr-peak WAR |38.2JAWS |4.5WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

Jay Jaffe: he’s got some low-hanging fruit in his 7-year score (seasons of 3.7 and 3.3 WAR plus two of 4.7) so if he gets a few 5-win seasons he’ll get a lot of traction.

Obi: Hello there, why was Ohtani on prospect lists, but Suzuki was not? And I think Akiyama and Kim as well but I could be remembering those two wrong

Jay Jaffe: this is better directed at Eric. Some outlets prefer not to rank NPB imports, but I suspect Suzuki not being signed is the real reason he didn’t make Top 100 lists.

Abe: Twins shock the world and get Correa?

Jay Jaffe: Kevin Correia, coming out of retirement at age 41 to throw a few more innings for the team would be a pretty big shock. Carlos Correa signing with the Twins is probably something closer to an impossibility.

Ben: How likely is it that Correa goes to the Orioles and, if he does, how much of a difference does it make?

Jay Jaffe: Not likely, but even if he did, our planet is in dire shape due to long-term climate change.

Matt: Xander would move to 2B before Story, right? I know Xander is the veteran in Boston, but he isn’t great at SS. I think the metrics are extremely generous to him.

Jay Jaffe: at this stage in spring, they’re almost certainly not moving Bogaerts to a new position for a newcomer, particularly if the word is that the newcomer is flexible to a short-term position change

Pat: Ever been to Coronado Island. The Mrs & I are heading there in May. Fun stuff to do there?

Jay Jaffe: I have not! Something to look into

Geno: Thoughts on the Winker Suarez trade?

Jay Jaffe: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-2021-near-misses-mariners-reds-go-di…

Tam: What do you think the odds are the Ms sign Story now that he’s apparently willing to change positions?

Jay Jaffe: maybe they’re one of the mystery teams but I wouldn’t count on them landing him

Guest: If Xander has a few more 4/5 WAR seasons, is he on a HOF path? He’s sitting on 1200+ hits with about 30 WAR and this is going to be his age 29 season.

Jay Jaffe: His bad defensive numbers have always been a drag on his value and so I’m not sure he’s really well-positioned (no pun intended) for a run unless he starts putting up 6-win seasons

Jay Jaffe: Shortstop (69th):
    29.1 career WAR | 28.1 7yr-peak WAR | 28.6 JAWS | 4.2 WAR/162
  Average HOF SS (out of 23):
    67.7 career WAR | 43.2 7yr-peak WAR | 55.5 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

Leo: Who would you rather be a fan of right now: Reds or Rockies?

Jay Jaffe: famine. or pestilence.

3 and 2: Do you like what the Mets have done?

Jay Jaffe: in the grand scheme of things, rarely, but they’ve had a good winter and look like the team to beat in the NL East IF — and this is a load-bearing IF — deGrom can stay healthy

Guest: I’m a Red Sox fan who thinks Yankees fans are being a little pessimistic about Josh Donaldson. He’s still a top hitter in baseball according to batted ball data and he’s a solid fielder. What do you think? I know he’s old, but he’s still a great player.

Jay Jaffe: I like the move more than most but I liked it more before they signed Rizzo.

Guest: I’m surprised Pujols hasn’t been signed yet. His march to 700 home runs would drum up a lot of ticket sales for a team. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s gonna sell all that many tickets because he’s not going to play regularly, nor should he. He’s lefty-only, maybe getting 2-3 starts a week, and so it’s hard to market that.

david: is there going to be a third  article on s-jaws for even more modern pitchers like Johan? Apologies if I missed it.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, but the labor situation, the transaction flood, and season preview stuff is all ahead of it in the queue. Might be awhile before I get to pick up the series.

Clay: Otani was 23 when he came to the US four years ago. Suzuki is 27 (a month younger than Otani).

Jay Jaffe: And Ohtani had already been an MVP in the Pacific League. Much bigger talent, sure. But MLB considers both rookies and therefore most prospect rankings do as well

3 and 2: Expectations from Seiya? Maybe you discussed this somewhere. thanks for doing this.

Jay Jaffe: I did not. I don’t know much about him yet, and you’re better off reading Dan https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-seiya-suzuki/ and Kevin https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cubs-make-surprising-move-with-seiya-suzuk…

3 and 2: What else do you do besides your writing here and elsewhere? Job-wise.

Jay Jaffe: This is my full-time job and the only place I write about baseball, and I’m very grateful that I’m able to do it that way, with great colleagues and resources. I play around with some book ideas but don’t have anything active to report on that front right now.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, it’s time for me to pack up. Thanks for stopping by and happy baseball!

Jay Jaffe: No chat next week due to travel!