Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/21/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I’ve got a piece about Edwin Díaz’s impending elbow surgery in the pipeline, while yesterday I wrote about Yordan Alvarez’s hot start (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-houstons-problems-yordan-alvarez-is-l…).

Jay Jaffe: Last Friday, I wrote about the Mets’ losing streak (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-offense-the-new-look-mets-are-in-quite-…), which has now reached 11 games. It’s brutal.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks to everyone who had kind words about my tribute to Davey Lopes (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/davey-lopes-1945-2026-speedster-student-an…), my first favorite player. And now, on with the show…

21127: After you wrote about the Mets, would you have guessed another FG writer would write about the Mets before the losing streak ended?

Jay Jaffe: Hah, that is brutal. I focused my piece on the offense’s shortcomings, knowing that there would probably be room for a follow-up on their pitching or some other aspect of their struggles at some point, but I did expect them to at least win a game here or there along the way.

Justin: I don’t think Mendoza should be fired, but I’m surprised he hasn’t been. Do you think the Mets let him go? Thanks

Jay Jaffe: The thing you have to remember is that Steve Cohen isn’t Fred Wilpon. I’m sure he’s not enjoying this, but he’s wired differently. This isn’t the same kind of panic-driven organization as it was for so long, so I think that Mendoza will have a longer leash to turn things aroiund. Which isn’t to say that he’s guaranteed to make it through the season, particularly after last year’s skid, but it’s not his fault that the majority of the high-profile additions to the roster have scuffled thus far.

Sid the Astros Kid: Spencer Arrighetti is the best pitcher on the Astros currently, just as predicted. In other related news we may never lose a game again

Jay Jaffe: They’ve won one in a row! With Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Tatsuya Imai all down with injuries, somebody had to be.

hayz11: I’ve been trying to figure out what is going on with Andrew Abbott, but all of his numbers are so different from last year that it’s hard to point to one specific thing that may be the problem. His stuff and particularly his command ratings appear to have taken a step back, and that’s clearly messing with his K/BB numbers. But he’s also inducing more weak contact and getting more ground balls. His changeup has a whiff rate of 43% and a hard hit rate of 9% – and hitters are slugging .560 against it! His arm slot is a little higher, and the movement profiles on his pitches are a little (though not drastically) different across the board, so I’m curious if this appears to be a mechanical/approach issue, or if this is just a case of weird SSS noise.

Jay Jaffe: That’s a lot. His arm angle is up, as you note, and that’s going to change the movement profile somewhat. Both the pitch-modeling systems we use say that his stuff and command/location are down. I’m wondering if the higher angle is making his offerings less deceptive; lefties have been teeing off on his four-seamer. Let’s hope this is a mechanical thing rather than a physical thing.

the only healthy astros player: if yordan wins the mvp this year does that increase his HoF odds by orders of magnitude? without it, he feels unlikely but with one it seems much more possible

Jay Jaffe: no award will increase his odds the way that stringing together multiple healthy seasons will. He’s a great hitter but between the pandemic and his own injuries has lost almost three seasons worth of games before turning 29.

Guest: This is very random but what happens if a player going into the HOF picks a cap of a team they barely played for – like what if Jeff Kent was like “actually I want to have the Blue Jays” even though he played 37 games for half a season with them? I know you don’t have to pick the team you had the most games or seasons or WAR with, but does the Hall have any ability to say “no that’s dumb you can’t do that”?

Jay Jaffe: The Hall has the final say on caps, and will effectively narrow the list of options for the player. For Kent it was probably a choice of Giants or blank, an option that has become a bit more common in recent years, with Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, and Fred McGriff among those going that route

Dr. Holmquist: At what percentage is a strategy choice consequential? For example, baseball savants new game strategy explorer says Bottom 8, 0 outs, runner on first win percentage is 67%. With a sac bunt that advances the runner the new win percentage is 65.6%. Is 1.4%. Is a 1.4% loss deemed too costly to teams? Is there a percentage change that is considered too consequential to make that decision?

Jay Jaffe: The thing to remember with such simulations is that they’re for the average player, and the differences between players may dwarf those minor gains or losses. Sure, a stolen base would be great, but unless your slowpoke is Josh Naylor, he’s probably not savvy enough to pull it off, and likewise, if you have Austin Hedges up there, you may as well try for a sacrifice instead of a nonproductive out.

hayz11: Dalton Rushing is 2nd on the Dodgers in HR and 3rd in fWAR despite only playing in 8 games. SSS concerns aside, this was a 60FV prospect not long ago and they are using him like a typical backup catcher. Having Ohtani and Smith blocking him limits options, but wouldn’t you think they need to find ways to get him into the lineup while he’s hitting like this?

Jay Jaffe: With Freddie Freeman on the paternity leave list, Rushing got a start at first base last night and he homered twice. I expect him to be the Dodgers’ top backup at the position going forward, with Dave Roberts probably trying to find him more opportunities in that capacity going forward, which could help keep Freddie fresh. Left field could also be an option given his 33 games of minor league experience there.

Matt: What’s your take on Will Warren? Watching him he seems like a guy whose stuff always outplayed the actual results, and feels like he might be on the verge of a real level-up as a starter… But he probably gets kicked to the pen before Weathers in the healthy version of the Yankees rotation

Jay Jaffe: Warren really is off to a strong start to his season, and maybe showing us what the Yankees saw in him. But if I’ve learned one thing in over 25 years of covering baseball dating back to my blogging days, fretting about what’s going to happen when all of your starters are healthy is a fool’s errand, because those situations tend to work themselves out — somebody will be either ineffective enough to be the obvious candidate for the bullpen, or somebody else will admit that yeah, they’ve been pitching through some discomfort and may need an IL stint… something like that.

Blackfish Creek Brad: Sorry to say that PB Boulangerie is permanently closed!

Jay Jaffe: Gah, thanks for the Cape Cod scouting report. I think this hits the rest of my family harder than me, but boy could Wellfleet use some better sandwich options.

Pete: Watching Vladdy do the splits still at 1st amazes me.  Is there data available for first basemen in the frequency that they stretch for the ball, or around distance from the base that the ball is caught?

Jay Jaffe: I imagine at some point Statcast might have something on this — maybe they already do, behind the scenes. I know that Sports Info Solutions does track first baseman scoops; Vladito is 2nd since the start of 2024 with 50, well behind Pete Alonso’s MLB-high 68, albeit in more playing time.

drplantwrench: is there going to be a fangraphs article on Garret Anderson?

Jay Jaffe: I’m saddened by his loss, but I’m not planning to write about him, and I haven’t heard of anyone else on staff planning to do so either. Unfortunately, we can’t cover everybody of note who passes — I didn’t get to Phil Garner, either.

Thanks: A few weeks ago, I asked for suggestions on birthday presents for a friend hitting a big birthday, and you had some great suggestions. Ended up getting matching Mitchell and Ness BP jerseys for him and his toddler. Big hit. Thanks again.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, awesome! Glad that worked out.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s the Edwin Díaz piece: https://bsky.app/profile/fangraphs.com/post/3mjzft7hke22h

Nate: The Mets losing streak has given a lot of cover to the Royals, who were also expected to be at least decent and have fallen flat on their face to start the year. Has age finally caught up to Salvy? Does anyone get fired?

Jay Jaffe: Perez has finished with less than 1.0 WAR in three of the past four seasons so I’d argue that age has already caught up with him. Coming off back-to-back seasons above .500, with a playoff appearance within, I don’t think either Matt Quatraro or J.J. Picollo are in jeopardy; they’re respectively signed through 2029 and ’30, each with club options.

Jay Jaffe: Their struggles are probably worth a closer look at some point.

HappyFunBall: Are the Nats going to finish the season with worse pitching than Colorado, even if we DON’T adjust for the park? Because that’s where we are today…

Jay Jaffe: Miles Mikolas is the paper bag labeled “Dead Dove: Do Not Eat,” so I’m not sure what anyone expected there, but yeah, it’s been really bad. They just don’t have enough guys who miss bats.

Guest: what do you think Vlad Jr has to do to make the HOF? He’ll probably go down as the Jays’ franchise player, but how much WAR, or what accolades do you think he needs

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s a long ways off — talented, but a ways off. I see at most three seasons on his resumé that are workable from a Hall peak standpoint: 2021, ’24, and ’25 — and the last of those is founded more on his October work than on his 4.6 bWAR. The good news is that he’s still young and obviously has some good genes, but it’s going to be a few years before his case comes into focus.

doughboy: Dillon Dingler is off to a scorching start. Underneath the hood his hard hit rate and barrel % have risen exponentially. After how many at bats does this become a meaningful change? Any possibility he’s figured something out offensively and with his defense he has become a potential elite all around catcher?

Jay Jaffe: Exit velocity and barrel rate start to stabilize around 50 batted balls, hard-hit rate around 80. Dingler has 57 to date, so yeah, that jump from 9.2% to 21.1% really does look like a big deal even if he gives back half of those gains, and likewise with his drop in strikeout rate from 23.5% to 15.4%. He does seem to have picked SOMETHING up, and he was already a good defender, so he may well be on his way to an All-Star selection. We’ll see here it goes from there.

Dan: If Ben Rice hits like this the whole season but stops facing lefty starters does he get MVP consideration or would the less than full time role tank his candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: He’s got 3 homers in 20 PA against lefties, while Paul Goldschmidt has just 2 hits in 19 PA against lefties so I’m not sure this is a hypothetical worth spending much time on.

War2D2: I’ve been thinking about doing a Cape Cod League trip at some point in the future. Is it worth the effort? I’ve never been to the cape and live on the West coast, so it’d be a hike to get there.

Jay Jaffe: I guess it depends on your appetite for watching very good college players, many of whom will eventually reach the majors, running around on high-school fields. The games are free, the venues are all within a couple hours of each other, and it’s a leisurely atmosphere with some great beaches and a ton of seafood within reach. if that sounds like your idea of a good time, go for it.

Dan: Have the Yankees not played Ben Rice at catcher this year because of he is currently the best hitter on the team or was this always the plan?

Jay Jaffe: The plan was to use him as a backup catcher but also to carry Escarra. I think the way things are going we’re not gonna see much of Rice behind the plate, though.

Captainjameshook: Howdy, Jay! If Stewart and McLean were off to slower starts, would Eldridge already be up to try for the PPI or do you think it’s unrelated and the Giants believe he’s not ready to help the team?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the Giants — or any team — are going to react to somebody else’s hot rookie by bringing their own rookie up ahead of their own belief that the kid can help their team. That said, particularly given Devers’ struggles and Eldridge faring well in Triple-A, I don’t think it will be too long before we see the kid.

Rob A: What’s the case for continuing to roll out Roki Sasaki? He doesn’t look like a viable major league starter at the moment. Is this their development program for him? If so, that seems like another way the Dodgers are operating on another plane from everyone else.

Jay Jaffe: The case is that it’s early in the season, he’s healthy, the team is off to a strong start, and there’s no healthy alternative pressing his way into the rotation. If nothing else changes before Snell is ready in (knock on wood) mid-May, that may be a decision point for Sasaki, though as I noted in the Díaz piece, Sheehan hasn’t pitched well either and could wind up in the bullpen (or the minors for that matter).

Sid the Astros Kid: Another Astros comment! Thoughts on us retooling/rebuilding potentially? As much as I don’t like that idea, I imagine Pena/Paredes/Hunter/Walker (assuming his performance holds) would all get fat prospect hauls. Crane doesn’t seem willing to go into the tax for this group we have somewhat understandably, so we’re kinda just watching our talented guys get older unnecessarily.

Jay Jaffe: Since their rise under Jeff Luhnow, we have yet to see the Astros take a step off the gas for retooling, so I’m skeptical they’re going to blow it up.  I think they’re more likely to shake things up and wring more from the current roster given that both Joe Espada and Dana Brown are in the final year of their contracts

Kevin: With Arenado’s horrid start to 2026 and clear decline since his resurgent 2022, am I crazy for thinking he isn’t a HOF if this is the end of productivity for him? Especially with 3B historically being harder to get inducted, and possibly being overshadowed by Ramirez and Machado if they all retire within a few years of each other.

Jay Jaffe: I think that with 10 Gold Gloves and his other accolades, he’s probably fine from a Hall standpoint, just maybe not the first-ballot automatic choice he looked like just a couple of years ago. With the elections of Beltré, Rolen, Chipper, Edgar, and Dick Allen within the past eight years, third base isn’t as maddeningly incomplete as it once was, and there’s gonna be room for all three of the aging stars at the position.

STiVo: I just messed with the cool new Baseball Sim tool in the FG Lab. I had the O’s projected team from today’s game play itself, except I mirror-reversed the batting order (1 swaps with 9; 2 swaps with 8; etc.).  The projected normal lineup scored 4.34 runs per game vs. 3.98 for the tweaked lineup.  Neat.

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t had a chance to play around with it yet — I’m nervous as hell about the time-sink it could become — but it looks like fun. The link is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-lab-a-baseball-simulator/

JROD Squad: With the Mets hogging the attention, Lets not forget that the Phillies are also having an incredible breakdown, and the Braves have been the benefactors of this collapse in the NL East landscape. It’s an interesting reversal of what happened last year.

Jay Jaffe: It’s certainly keeping things interesting in that division. I wonder if the impending return of Zack Wheeler gives them a psychological lift.

20longyears: Because April, the Pirates currently have 3 of the 15 most valuable pitchers in the National League by WAR, and none of them are named Paul. At season’s end, the Pirates will have _____ of the top 15 NL starters.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll guess 2: Skenes and either Ashcraft or Keller but not both

Dos Muncys: What do you make of the Imai situation? Is “tired arm” designation a better way to say the dreaded “personal”?

Jay Jaffe: Tired arm isn’t uncommon at this stage of the season but it sounds like that’s only one of several factors. I don’t know exactly what’s going on there but it does sound like a significant bummer — as even a week abroad reminded me, it’s hard being someplace where you don’t speak the language and where routines are different. I do think some of the blame for this falls on the Astros for not having a stronger support network in place to help Imai’s acclimation.

Rob A: Agree with your summation of the Cape Cod League attractions but would add as a West Coaster who did that trip last year, and loved it, we combined it with a game at Fenway, one at Worcester, and HOF induction weekend in Cooperstown.

Aaron: Speaking of 3B HOF, are you a Ken Boyer guy?

Jay Jaffe: in the abstract, definitely. On a crowded ballot, it’s a tougher question. I think I had Dick Allen, Vic Harris, and John Donaldson all ahead of him on the 2025 Classic one.

Jeremy: Wheeler’s been pitching like a 5th starter (at best) in his rehab outings. Velocity down significantly from pre-injury. So I guess my question is: are the Phillies toast if their rotation is anything close to what it currently appears to be (Sanchez, Luzardo, and a bunch of 5th starters)?

Jay Jaffe: I’d hesitate to draw strong conclusions on rehab results, but typically any team with three starters continuing to carry an ERA above 5.00 is gonna be toast

Sal’s Mom: How impressive is Cincinnati’s start considering they’re without their top 2 starters?

Jay Jaffe: It’s impressive, but they’re 15-8 while being outscored by three runs so … hold onto your butts.

Asher: Do you think Randy Vasquez’s transformation (more velo on the fastball, big jump in his K rate) will last?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know, but the numbers do jump out, so it’s worth a closer look for sure.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, i’ve got to go. Thanks so much for stopping by!