Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/22

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat — my first solo chat of the 2022 regular season!

Jay Jaffe: First, some housekeeping: i’ve got a big piece today about this week’s rash of no-hit bids and their connection to the MLB-wide drop in offense. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/welcome-to-hitless-baseball/

Jay Jaffe: Second, the Hall of Fame dropped big news about another Era Committee reorganization right as I was filing that.

Jay Jaffe: I will cover this early next week, but for the moment it’s worth sharing that I confirmed with the Hall that yes, the four candidates who aged off this year’s ballot — Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa — will be eligible for the 2023 Contemporary Players ballot.

Jay Jaffe: Finally, I’m going to go see some baseball nerd friends who are in a band — including Mike Petriello and Michael Clair — play a show in Brooklyn tonight. if you’re local, check it out

Jay Jaffe: Ok, on with the show

Joe: Is the 3,000-hit player extinct after Miggy Cabrera?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not, but there is going to be a lull for awhile unless 39-year-old Robinson Cano, who has 2,629 hits, discovers the fountain of — wait, you know what, that’s a bad metaphor.

Jay Jaffe: When Dan Szymborski looked at this last September, the next-highest player in terms of odds of getting to 3K wasn’t Cano but Jose Altuve (34%), followed by Freddie Freeman (28%). Fernando Tatis Jr. (20%) and Juan Soto (18%). Altuve and Tatis are currently on the IL, but the field is large enough that it’s likely we’ll see somebody get there, if not very soon https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-3000-hit-club-is-closed-for-maintenanc…

Jay Jaffe: “After Cabrera accomplishes the goal next year, ZiPS only projects 1-2 currently active players to finish their career with 3,000 hits (1.6 to be exact). Over the next 12-15 years or so, only three players are currently on what I’d call a reasonable approach pattern.”

Guille: How dope is all the feats Ohtani can do? The other day I was just thinking “I bet no pitcher ever got on base two times before throwing a pitch in a game”. Do you think there’s a chance we get a second Ohtani ever?

Jay Jaffe: Ha, it’s funny but that first-of-its-kind feat — which really owed more to his teammates, obviously – was quickly obscured by the fact that he was one of those pitchers with a no-hit bid through five and in fact a perfect game bid through five.

He is utterly amazing, and so long as the Angels have both him and Trout in the lineup — the latter is supposed to return from his hand-HBP tonight — they’ve got a fighting chance of doing it again, though it’s probably pretty rare for a single team to bat around in the first inning 2x in one year.

Dungeon Master: Jay! What are the practical implications of the era committee restructuring announced by the HOF this morning?

Jay Jaffe: More than I have had time to digest but: this doesn’t help Bonds and Clemens, who will get voted upon with less frequency (3x per decade instead of 4x); it accelerates re-consideration of pre-1970 candidates (including Dick Allen and Negro Leagues players); it thankfully removes managers and executives from crowding out players.

Jay Jaffe: My hunch is that it will greatly reduce the flow of Era Committee honorees and lead to another corrective reorganization

The guy who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: I had a green-and-grains bowl with grilled chicken from Cava, a local Mediterranean place. Tasty and reasonably healthy but also overpriced.

Paul M: The Yankees, White Sox, Red Sox, and Astros have all gotten off to poor offensive starts, with their team OPS+ sitting at 93, 82, 88, and 91 early into the season.  How concerned should fans of each of those teams be?

Jay Jaffe: Two weeks is pretty silly to get too worked up about, especially when these teams are all within one game of .500. That said, the reduced carry of the 2022 baseball could again have very real consequences for the Yankees, given their tendency to be built for home run dependence.

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Miggy getting IBB’d at 2,999 is such a baseball thing.

Jay Jaffe: Removing the milestone aspect from it, in the context of the game situation, it wasn’t entirely nonsensical, but Miggy ain’t That Guy anymore, where you walk him to avoid big damage, and it’s generally a bad idea to walk the bases loaded. Ben Clemens dug in on the decision https://blogs.fangraphs.com/two-managerial-decisions-and-another-bad-i…

Guest: what kinds of changes are being considered to the positional adjustments in WAR?

Jay Jaffe: While i was consulted with regards to the fWAR change in UZR (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/), I have not been in on the positional adjustment conversation, as far as I can recall. I think Ben Clemens and Dan Szymborski know much more about this than I do. I wouldn’t expect anything to happen overnight though.

@RationalMLBFan: Since arbitration will happen during the season, what salary are players getting paid? For example, is Aaron Judge being paid $10.175 million (same as 2021) until the salary is decided, then he gets retroactive pay to the beginning of the season? And what happens to players whom teams might release if the players win their case? In the past, a player released during spring training was due only part of their salary, but that’s obviously passed.

Jay Jaffe: my understanding is that the players are getting paid at a rate equivalent to the team’s filing figure ($17 million). From The Athletic’s Linsey Adler:

…players who may head to an arbitration hearing will be paid at the number the club filed at until the contract situation is resolved, with backpay and interest coming to the player if a new agreement is reached or the arbitrator sides with the player. In this case, Judge will be paid as if he will make $17 million this year until this issue is resolved.

Jay Jaffe: https://theathletic.com/3238870/2022/04/08/yankees-aaron-judge-contrac…

Brad NJ: Jay, It seems like offense is still down, half my fantasy team players are batting under .200, is there talk in the industry about what is going on, or #April?

Jay Jaffe: read today’s piece linked up top

Jay Jaffe: offense is down. this year’s .231 batting average is lower than 1968, the Year of the Pitcher. This combination of scoring and slugging percentage hasn’t been seen since 1981

henryv: With the changes in the way defensive WAR if calculated, are there any “knock on” effects to pitcher valuations?

Jay Jaffe: probably not, unless we’re undertaking a more extensive overhaul to our version of WAR. We’ll still be allocating 1,000 WAR per year across a 30-team season, equivalent to a .294 win% for replacement level, with a 57% position player/43% pitcher split

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: It looks like thanks to the Jon Bois documentary, Dave Stieb is the new Hall cause célèbre.  Will this renewed candidacy be as fun as the ones for Edgar and Larry Walker?

Jay Jaffe: Alas, the Dave Stieb Train might have been derailed by today’s announcement. he’s now competing for space with Bonds, Clemens, et al

Chase: What do you like about the current era of pitching?

Jay Jaffe: I can’t say I know a ton about it or have developed the vocabulary to write about it extensively — my Andrew Heaney piece was a learning experience (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-sweeping-success-of-the-overhauled-and…) — but I think pitch design is fascinating. The concept of seam-shifted wake, and the technology available that can provide instant feedback and help a pitcher and his coach optimize the way they throw a baseball is fascinating.

Jay Jaffe: And I do like that there’s more than one route to success for a pitcher

Jackson Ingram: On a scale of 1-10 how worrying are Bobby Witt Jr’s early struggles. 10 being very worrying.

Jay Jaffe: maybe a 4? he has yet to barrel a single batted ball and is striking out 30% of the time, but right now the entire league is struggling to hit, and some of his struggles aren’t just his.

Brad NJ: everyone loves spects and criticizes teams for supposedly playing the service time game, but look at Bobby witt Jr.  consensus top 2 spect and Julio Rodriguez consensus top 3 spect, both struggling horribly. Would’t they have been better off starting the year in AAA, hitting .350 gaining confidence and coming up end of May/early June?

Jay Jaffe: While I get what you’re saying I also think it’s better for the health of the game if teams play prospects when they’re ready, and the general consensus among prospect experts is that these guys are ready.

Rodriguez has gotten screwed by the umps on an inordinate percentage of called strikes https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-save-julio-rodriguez/

Homer: Hey brother, interested if you could share an opinion on the following?  Looking to drop Ohtani into a SP slot full time on my squad, replacing either Alex Wood, or Jameson Taillon.  I’d move Schwarber into his OF spot, and pick up either Mancini or Belt to ride out 1B.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not the fantasy guy here, haven’t played in over 10 years, and don’t wish to elicit a ton of fantasy questions but this one seems like a no-brainer sequence: but i’d say yes to Ohtani, drop Taillon, and add Belt.

Andrew: Hi, Jay, thanks for all of your work. Your HOF pieces are must-read for me during the offseason. My question is about Mookie Betts. Last year you wrote that there was something “unmistakenly off about Betts.” He’s off to another (very) slow start this year; do you think we’ll ever see him return to the player he was from 2015-2021?

Jay Jaffe: Betts dealt with a bone spur in his hip last year, among other injuries, and he didn’t have surgery to correct it. I wonder if it’s a factor now or if there’s another health-related issue. I’m not ready to write off anybody over two bad weeks.

James B.: Thanks immensely for taking the time to chat with us today, Jay. It’s understandable that teams can be more patient with slow starters given the expanded April rosters – but are some of these strugglers (rookies, in particular) in for a cold splash of water come May 1? Or can we expect teams to continue to preach patience given the extenuating circumstances brought about by a shortened spring?

Jay Jaffe: Very good point regarding May 1 — that’s the last day before rosters will be trimmed to 26 players. If you’re wondering about the struggles of a Witt or a Rodriguez, that may be a point when teams take a harder look at the benefits and costs of keeping a slow starter up, particularly if the team is also failing to meet expectations.

Brad NJ: All offseason talk about players not getting paid, but then we see Miggy this week in the highlight, he has been getting paid $20M a year for the last 5 years, and combined those five years has negative WAR, shouldnt that be talked about?  How about Cano, Ellsbury, Josh Hamilton, what about the contracts like that? why do we only talk about the players who are supposedly underpaid before free agency, what about the players who are overpaid, no one talks about them giving money back or someone like Miggy who should have retired 4 years ago……

Jay Jaffe: There has been no shortage of discussion of the overpaid players, and even those guys spent the first and often the most productive legs of their careers being drastically underpaid.

Jay Jaffe: I do hear you about the Cabrera situation but my lord, anybody could have seen that extension, which was issued in March 2014, two years before it took effect, would be a bad idea

Adell staying up?: If Trout gets healthy, is Adell going to get sent down to AAA for everyday at bats? He seems to be #4 in the Angels OF rotation, and he really shouldn’t be a bench player in MLB, right?

Jay Jaffe: If everybody is healthy I expect them to roll with a Marsh/Ward-Trout-Adell outfield most often

Homer: Bryant off to a slow start in COL, Arrenado clearly clicking.  Still think they’re about even ROS?

Jay Jaffe: I get that the power hasn’t fully manifested itself yet but is .349/.388/.442 (124 wRC+) a slow start? Only relative to a guy with a 284 wRC+ (Arenado) I guess

Jay Jaffe: Our projections liked Arenado more than Bryant at the outset of the season, and two weeks shouldn’t have changed that much

henryv: How many pitchers who retired in 2015-2022 are likely to make the Hall? Is this likely to be a nadir of starting pitchers making the hall for a while until Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, and Verlander retire?

Jay Jaffe: The only one who seems to have a solid chance until that quartet hits the ballot is CC Sabathia, and that is a worrisome situation.

Wade Boggs: Every time I hear 3,000 hits, all I can think about is that 80mph meatball that got served up to Jeter so he could hit a HR on his 3,000th…

Jay Jaffe: you’re nobody to talk

Way2early: What do you think Ohtani’s HoF odds realistically are? Arguably the threshold for 2 way players is nonexistent. If he exists as an all star caliber player for 5-7 more years I would vote him in

Jay Jaffe: realistically if he lasts another five seasons while pitching and hitting at a high level he’s going into Cooperstown. I don’t think the actual numbers will matter as much as the proof-in-concept success

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Best ballpark food that is not a hot dog, peanuts, or nachos?

Jay Jaffe: tacos or BBQ at Petco Park, in my experience

Jay Jaffe: they don’t sell it anymore at Yankee Stadium but i used to love the Minute Made Frozen Lemonade, That stuff is great on a hot summer day

Joe: Another website published an article earlier this week about Anthony Rizzo bunting against the shift. Though largely speculative and anecdotal, the lede was that teams might start coaching players to hit to the opposite field.  Realistic hope?  I get the objective argument both for the shift and for pull hitting/launch angle, but it’s viscerally unpleasant

Jay Jaffe: With the demise of the shift somewhere on the horizon even before this season began, I don’t think you’re going to see a wholesale change in philosophy

Jay Jaffe: We’re not going to see bunts galore

ben simmons’ jumper: did you see that Tony La Russa, blessed with what is on paper one of the deepest lineups in baseball, had leury garcia hit 3rd (!) not once but two games in a row

Jay Jaffe: LOL no, i missed that. what in the world?

Josh R: Haven’t seen anyone mention what kind of advantage the Blue Jays might have at home if every team comes to Toronto missing 3-5 players. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: It’s pretty clear that every team is not going to be missing 3-5 players. A couple weeks back i figured it might be a two-win swing for the Jays, maybe more like one win, but the recent report that the Yankees appear to have had their shots (https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33768891/new-york-yankees-upcoming…) probably lessens that

Pat: On the committees- I also think having the non-player committee will lead to more non-players getting elected. I could care less about umpires, but, there seems to be a backlog of managers that are probably deserving from a historical perspective. Seeing guys like Bochy, Leyeland, Pinella, etc..& then Tito & Dusty down the line, get their due is a good thing ,IMO.

Jay Jaffe: yes, this is one of the better aspects of the change. I’m fine with more managers getting in (though I’m not big on Piniella being near the front of the line, as entertaining as he was). I don’t think another commissioner should ever go in, and i’d be fine if no other owners ever made it, too

Ross: Another bad start to the year for Kelenic. How long before it is time to accept he is just a bust in terms of his prospect pedigree?

Jay Jaffe: He’s 22.

Jay Jaffe: he’s 22 and has begun his MLB career under very strange circumstances. it would be malpractice to give up on him so long as he at least has minor league options remaining.

Josh: Did MLB go too far with the ball change and humidor? Homeruns are way down so far.

Jay Jaffe: it’s very tough to untangle the humidor effect from the softer baseball that was introduced last year, but cumulatively it’s not looking great right now.

Alex C: How would you evaluate the Cano for Kelenic trade now that Kelenic looks like a bust?

Jay Jaffe: Cano is a pretty huge bust, too. In two years he’ll be out of the league and at worst, the Mariners will still be seeing what they have in Kelenic. In the words of my former colleague Kevin Goldstein, settle down.

Guest: maybe already answered but do you think that part of the pitching dominance in the past couple years is driven by a technological disparity between pitching and hitting training? seems like pitch shape and velocity training is much more scientific than 10 years ago while the big innovation in hitting is “try to hit it in the air more”

Jay Jaffe: The increase in hitting science might be less apparent today than on the pitching side but the with the increased understanding of biomechanics and the usage of video and the more advanced pitching machines, the gap isn’t THAT wide.

nerd: why don’t we see pitchers moved to 3rd or 1st base in between batters to keep them in the lineup anymore? did I miss a rule change or memo about this technique?

Jay Jaffe: Because the payoff generally isn’t there. Makes more sense to get a fresh arm

Mike: Jay, is there a case for the Mets to keep Cano after next week or is it time for them to move on?

Jay Jaffe: For as much as I don’t think Cano has a great long-term future in the majors, I don’t think his release is necessarily imminent. His xBA and xSLG are much better than his actual numbers, suggesting he’s making decent contact. I guess it comes down to who their other options are to replace him

TwinCities: the Rays twin city plan was shot down by MLB owners, but might an expansion franchise (ie new franchise fee) get approved? Should I buy merch for the San Juan- Montreal future team the Saint-Jean Saints?

Jay Jaffe: it makes zero sense to presume that a single franchise is going to be able to get two ballparks built for half-season usage, especially now that most municipalities have caught onto the stadium game

Betting: any chance the breathless promoting of gambling on mlb network and apple tv turn off or transform viewers. I find it gross and wonder what my 7 year old self would have thought

Jay Jaffe: I hate it, too, and think that yes, it could drive some people away. Or, you know, just produce a very damaging scandal.

Rockn: Any music recommendations?

Jay Jaffe: Lately I’ve been very much enjoying the new Wet Leg, the new Jon Spencer and the HitMakers, recent Superchunk, Fuzz (who were great live last week), the Sparks back catalog (they were amazing live on 3/27 at Town Hall), and the long-awaited Freakons (that’s Mekons plus Freakwater) collaboration

Pitch_Out: There is a great article on Nasty Nestor over in the rotographs side today. Are you personally buying his 2021-2022 results?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t read Nicklaus Gaut’s piece yet (https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/nestor-cortes-is-for-real/) but I was on the Nasty Nestor bandwagon last year (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nasty-nestor-has-baffled-hitters-and-helpe…). I gather he’s on the seam-shifted wake train and so yes, I would take his success seriously

Guest: Steven Kwan – if forced to comp, more like Ichiro, Wade Boggs, Olerud, Mauer, other?

Jay Jaffe: i think it’s a bad idea to compare a prospect to a Hall of Famer

Jay Jaffe: there are still very real concerns about Kwan’s power but he looks like a good tablesetter who can play center field. Eric Longenhagen recently compared him to Brett Gardner, which makes a lot more sense than imagining he’s some kind of Ichiro or Boggs type

Appa Yip Yip: Remember two years ago when Vladdy was a bust?

Jay Jaffe: exactly

ProspectNoob: Chicago Cubs have Schwindel and Wisdom, but it seems like MLB evaluators shade any non-pitching or catching prospects older than 24. Why does Chicago stand out as the exception to the rule here and could other teams follow suit?

Jay Jaffe: the Cubs, with their sudden teardown and not much immediate help on the horizon from their own system, had the space to give some Quad-A types that they liked some playing time and so far it’s panned out to a degree. They’ve obviously got some smart people working for them

Guest: Cubs reboot looks like a good start. Do you think Cubs get creative and take on Gleyber or Bohm? Figure now is the time to scoop up down guys and see if they can right the ship.

Jay Jaffe: Fans may be ready to punt on those guys but I highly doubt that their teams are, especially so long as they’re inexpensive

Mike: How will people view the pandemic shortened 2020 season in the future? If Stanton finished with 590 homers, do people just give him credit for 600 since the shortened 2020 season kept him from reaching it?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s any qualitative difference between 590 and 600 homers when it comes to figuring out a player’s spot in history. “Giancarlo Stanton can hit the f’ing s*** out of the ball and did it more than most players for a long career” will be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame whether it’s 590 or 600 homers.

Jay Jaffe: (if he sticks around long enough to get there or even to 500)

David: The usage of “bust” in this chat has been fascinating. Obviously it’s not a new word or phenomenon, but do you think prospects get harsher, quicker judgments now due to a rise in both interest in and awareness of prospects in recent years? It feels like there’s more attention on that side than ever, and it comes with an intensification of expectations.

Jay Jaffe: I think people have short attention spans, and that the prospect sub-industry isn’t great about communicating the range of outcomes. That’s something that I know Eric and Kevin have worked very hard to counter. it’s worth re-reading this if you haven’t https://blogs.fangraphs.com/managing-prospect-expectations/

Jay Jaffe: I think some of these questions about prospects do come from the fantasy side, too. If Kelenic isn’t going to hit this year and you’re in a league that redrafts every year, it’s fine to label him a bust and move on, but if you’re Jerry Dipoto, you’re an idiot if you’re cutting bait even now.

Mike: Do the Guardians have enough hitting the rest of the way to contend for the AL Central title?

Jay Jaffe: I was wondering this myself. I still think there’s a significant talent gap between them and the White Sox but Chicago ain’t exactly running away with the Central

Guest: Would you want to be the pitcher who gives up Miggy’s 3000th hit? I know I would.

Jay Jaffe: I could live with it.

Fish: Does Conforto sign by June 1?

Jay Jaffe: I really have to wonder about the severity of his shoulder injury (https://nypost.com/2022/03/30/ex-met-michael-confortos-injury-slowing-…)

Jay Jaffe: if he’s healthy and plans to play this year I’d expect a deal soon. if not healthy, i expect he won’t sign until after the draft (July 17) and the nullification of the QO-related loss of a draft pick

barney gumble: hey Jay. where do you think the Yankees (and Gerrit Cole) are at with Gerrit Cole? a guy with his stuff and command can’t be this bad, right? but he’s been getting clobbered, and “what about that game in Houston??” can’t be the counter forever

Jay Jaffe: My perception is thatI don’t think he’s done a good job of adjusting to little bumps in the road like the delay on Opening Day, but it also seems that he hasn’t been the same pitcher since the sticky stuff crackdown. I do think he’s got ample stuff to succeed at a high level but it’s not coming together for one reason or another

Jay Jaffe: folks, I have to call it a day here. Thanks so much for stopping by! We’ll do this again soon.

bart: Jay I have a leaderboards question – I’m trying to find players in the career 100/100 (HR/SB) club since 1999, but when I enter it into the splits leaderboard, no player shows up. Any idea what I’m doing wrong?

Jay Jaffe: make sure you’ve got the “career” option instead of the “season” option on the far right

Jay Jaffe: ok, bye!