Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/4/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first solo chat of the 2023 regular season — last week’s chat was scrubbed due to my participation in the Opening Day chat.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ve got a piece up today on the rough start to Madison Bumgarner’s 2023 season. It’s grimmer than a @nihilist_arby’s tweet https://blogs.fangraphs.com/madison-bumgarners-2023-is-off-to-a-rough-…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I looked at Anthony Rendon’s return and the foolishness on his part that led to a four-game suspension https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-rendons-return-to-action-may-be-in…

The guy who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: Smoked brisket from a friend, and some leftover roasted cauliflower. Good stuff!

JT: Is Berrios Spanish for “sad futility”? Asking for a country.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, is he off to a rough start after last year’s struggles. Might look into the Blue Jays — whom I picked to win the AL East — in an upcoming piece.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Is Nolan Arenado better than Scott Rolen was?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say they’re pretty close to even at this stage of their careers. Using the Baseball Reference Compare tool, Arenado ended last season, his age-31 campaign, with a 124 OPS+ and 52.0 WAR. Rolen, through age 31 (2007), had a 129 OPS+ and 53.3 WAR; using those cutoffs, the difference in games played only comes out to nine (in Rolen’s favor).

The big difference between the two is that the widespread availability of WAR and defensive metrics has made Arenado an obvious HOFer in waiting where for Rolen, those numbers weren’t popular until late carer, and so many people didn’t come around to that notion until after he retired.

Steve: Best for this year…Grove, Dodd, or Elder?

Jay Jaffe: I was impressed with what I saw of Michael Grove last night, but I’ll go with Dodd, entirely based on Eric Longenhagen’s prospect grade. he’s a 50 FV via what Eric ran last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-starters-pistol-update-to-the-top-100-pr…) whereas the other two are 40+ guys.

Dallas: I want to travel to see Ohtani; specifically to see him pitch and hit in a game. How far out would you make your plans for this? For example, if the Angels starting rotation stays on schedule (ah shit, I just realized it could go to 6-man at anytime. Damnit.), he should pitch in St. Louis on Wednesday May 3rd. I live in Chicago so I can drive but would rather fly. When do you make your plans? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: man, that’s tough. especially given the potential for rainouts I’d be wary of making plans too far in advance. I might wait until a couple of weeks before to see what tracks as far as rotation plans are concerned. You could always rely upon the secondary market to get a ticket if plans change and you need to adjust, but it could get a bit pricey.

JW: Is this the year Gleyber Torres puts it all together?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say he put it all together in 2019 when he hit 38 homers with a 125 wRC+ and was worth 3.6 WAR, though to be fair that was weighted down by his rough defense at shortstop (-11 DRS, -7 RAA), and last year he was average to good at second (9 DRS, 0 RAA). Offensively, while I do like the start he’s off to, I think we’ve seen his ceiling, so I think you’re looking at a ~4-win guy if it all breaks right.

Abe: Seems NYY pitching depth was a bit underrated? You could argue they haven’t developed the front line guy yet but man does their pitching dev churn out big leaguers

Jay Jaffe: They’ve done a good job of minting mid-to back-end guys. Germán, Montgomery, Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, maybe Jhony Brito; we’ll see if he and Schmidt can hang at least in the short term

Guest: Weathers last night?  Good? Bad?

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t see him but five innings, two runs, one walk, two K’s is reasonably solid. Scored a 106 Stuff+ for his fastball, 109 for the slider, but just 77 for the changeup — still all well ahead of where he was in 2021 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0…

Ross: Guardians, 100-win ceiling with their roster construction and age coinciding with these particular rule changes? They’ve always utilized white magic with their starting pitching but Kwan and Straw seem to help in the OF where they’ve been traditionally weak.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have much faith in Straw’s bat at all, but he can go get it. Feels like this team has been punting outfield offense seemingly since Grady Sizemore fell apart. The Guardians project for just 83.8 wins, but they do have a bit of a shot at 100 based on the distribution graph available via the Display Options:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Twins distribution shown for comparison. 100 wins COULD happen but I wouldn’t hold my breath

Dan the Man McGRAWWWW: What would Judge need to do to become a HoFer? How much heavy lifting did his MVP season do?

Jay Jaffe: he’s got a ways to go in terms of career stuff but he’s only about 5 points short on peak — and that’s having played more than 112 games just three times.

Jay Jaffe: Those three seasons are 10.6, 8.0 and 6.1 in terms of WAR, and he also has a 5.9 in just 112 games and 5.6 in 102 games. That’s A LOT of heavy lifting; conceivably, he could clear the peak standard with like a 5.1 WAR season this year

Jay Jaffe: Right Field (50th):
37.0career WAR |37.07yr-peak WAR |37.0JAWS |8.2WAR/162
  Average HOF RF (out of 28):
    71.1 career WAR | 42.4 7yr-peak WAR | 56.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

Marko from Tropoja: IMO, Kershaw and Trout were surefire Hall of Famers on opening day of their tenth seasons. Who, if anyone, could be the next person on that list? Mookie (2023 is his tenth season)? Ohtani? Soto?

Jay Jaffe: Mookie is 15th in JAWS (56.2/50.4/53.3), between Gwynn and Evans, ahead of Suzuki, Winfield, and Guerrero already, so I’d call him sure-fire. Once Ohtani gets to 10 years (2027), he’ll have my vote if he’s still able to do both roles competently. Soto is much further off, with only two seasons of 5.0 WAR or better. Pretty normal for a guy who’s in his age-24 season.

Madison Bumgarner: Did anyone actually expect me to do well this year? Even my mom thinks I’m a bum.

Jay Jaffe: What really makes me scratch my head is that we don’t hear anything about what he’s doing to stop this slide. Is he stuck in 2015? He’s on a team that has the ex-Astros pitching coach; where’s the new pitch or new grip or mechanical tweak that’s going to at least offer some hope he rebounds? Is he stuck in 2015? Guys turn themselves around all the time with all of this information but we don’t hear anything about him going that route.

Insert Witty Name Here: If Rendon only got a 4 game suspension, should more players get in the face of unruly fans? I’d love to see Vogelbach block the sun on some drunk fan.

Jay Jaffe: This is a stupid way to look at what was a serious matter. Rendon was in the wrong — touching a fan like that is a no-no and he could still face legal probelms

Chip: I saw a lot of media people forecasting TOR to win the East this year, stating that the rotation and lineup were both better than NYY. To my eye the NYY rotation is clearly better, and the lineup is much closer than most people think. Where am I wrong?

Jay Jaffe: I think the concern about the Yankees rotation was its volatility due to injury risks, and whaddayaknow, Rodón and Severino have started the year on the IL, and Montas is out until, probably, September. The Blue Jays’ rotation strikes me as les volatile.

todd: You are probably not the right guy to ask this. Nevertheless, here goes. Is there ever a chance the pitch modeling numbers are available on player pages?

Jay Jaffe: I imagine they will be there someday, not sure how soon but will ask (check this q for an update). In the meantime, a good workaround is to create a Custom Players page and select the guy(s) you want like I did for Weathers above. Here’s one for Ohtani: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0…

Jay Jaffe: Note that these numbers only go back to 2020

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Different borough, but got any food recs for Astoria?

Jay Jaffe: As it’s a haul and a half and I don’t have a car, Queens in general is the great unknown for food for me

shortstop: Dallas: Ohtani will probably get 5 days off between starts. If LAA has an off day, I bet they bump the 6th guy to the bullpen.

Mr. Burrito: Jay — Love your work. Dumb question: The Dodgers are swapping out vets for rookies/reclamation projects off of one of the better regular season teams of all time. Is there any historical precedence for this? Has there been a team that won anything close to 111 games and, in the next season, tossed out two SPs and three regular position players? If so, how’d that go?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s any recent precedent for this at all. Seems like an A’s level teardown but I’d have to look more closely to see how much turnover there was

Sad Rockies Fan: Re: Astoria Food Recs – I lived in Astoria until recently – Sabor de Cuba, District Saigon, and Il Bambino were my go-to’s

Dan: Judge said the other day that he expects to be better this year. Now 1 of course thinks this. 2 even if he’s right and his true talent increases this year and next odds are last year is his best statistical year right?

Jay Jaffe: yes, because 10-win seasons are improbable. That said, it’s possible Judge could fall off a bit offensively and get some of his defensive value back; he had a smaller positional adjustment because of his time in CF last year but his raw metrics weren’t as good as his early-career days in RF. 1.1 runs fielding + positional in 2022 compared to a high of 3.8 in 2017 and ’19.

shortstop: 1998 Marlins!

Jay Jaffe: there you go as far as recent teardowns. It didn’t go well — but the Marlins were much more aggressive, they weren’t keeping the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Julio Urías around.

JV: Any thoughts on Trevor Larnach this year?  He seems like a true under the radar breakout candidate.

Jay Jaffe: he was a 55 FV prospect heading into his 2021 due to plus power and patience, hit  for a 102 wRC+ last year (though just 160 PA) with an 11.8% barrel rate and strong defense in both corners. 26 now, breakout is probably too strong a word but I think it’s worth seeing if he’s for real

Hank: Bassitt velocity/first start showing way-too-early potential as a disastrous contract?

Jay Jaffe: waaaay too early

Ace: Who do you like more for 2023: Friedl or Larnach?

Jay Jaffe: Larnach, who hits the ball much harder

Roger: Do you think the Drury can land a full time role this season?

Jay Jaffe: pretty sure that’s why he signed with the Angels

Farhandrew Zaidman: I would like anyone predicting a Cody Bellinger bounce back year to identify themselves for public shaming, please and thank you.

Jay Jaffe: Wasn’t me, sheriff. what hopes I had for him went out the window last year. he’s now the subject of “i can fix him” dreams and fantasies that will all fall short

Gonzo: Do you think Manaea can succeed as a starter in SF?

Jay Jaffe: I think so given their recent track record of getting more out of their pitchers than expected. Kyle Kishimoto looked at the signing here and identified some issues they need to address https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sean-manaea-returns-to-the-bay-signs-with-…

ZacharyA: Hey Jay! There were more HR yesterday (53) than on any April day since 2019. Just a fluke thing? Result of warmer weather? Pitchers making mistakes due to the clock? Or are the balls juiced again?

Jay Jaffe: something to keep an eye on. we don’t have nearly enough information to go on

Whoop: Are you buying Luke Raley?  Reports show some good offseason swing adjustments.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve seen the reports. Sure, it could work, but I don’t think two homers so far tells us much, especially given that they’re accompanied by a .224 xSLG.

Tstats: Afternoon Jay, favorite overreaction to start the season? Vargas being the single season BB leader?

Jay Jaffe: the one where a segment of Padres fans was convinced Juan Soto is cooked due to his 1-for-15 start. Come on

J: I will throw out that Astoria Seafood is a fun spot where you pick your seafood from a counter, choose how it’s cooked, and get to enjoy it a few moments later. It’s also a rare BYO place for NYC. Astoria’s also just a great neighborhood for Greek specialties in general. My Greek in-laws regularly drive there from Jersey for olives, cheese, etc.

Jay Jaffe: mmm that sounds good

J: Who is the odd man out in Chicago when Kyle Hendricks comes back in about a month?

Jay Jaffe: has anyone ever learned that chicken-counting like this is just foolish? I want to go back a few weeks and ask the Mets fan who wanted to trade Carrasco so Peterson could have a rotation spot what he thinks of that rotation’s depth right now.

The reality is a guy coming back from a capsule tear surgery à la Hendricks is just as likely to be the odd man out. Even if he is healthy and pitching well, the chances are very high that somebody else from the starting five will land on the IL before the crowd becomes unwieldy. That’s pitching for you.

Nick: Thoughts on Tylor Megill ROS?

Jay Jaffe: If he stays in the rotation i’ll remember to spell his first name with an O. We’ve seen some promising stuff out of him and I think he’s going to be pretty important in such a fragile rotation

Tony Gwynn: Hi Jay! Percentage chance Trayce Thompson maintains over .790 OPS this year? Anyhting to see here? Or turning back into pumpkin imminent?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s for real, made some changes in his mechanics and approach that keyed last year’s breakout (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trayce-thompson-makes-a-splash-as-the-dodg…) and projects for about a .750 OPS via ZiPS and Steamer, so maybe it’s a 30-40% chance he goes better than .790 if that’s the line you’re drawing.

olethros: Have you heard Chuck D’s new baseball themed album yet? Mostly pretty good, though he and I clearly don’t see eye to eye on Pete Rose.

Jay Jaffe: I have not, but no doubt he’s a real fan. Here’s a link to the Bandcamp page, i might just give this a spin https://chuckdasmistachuck.bandcamp.com/album/we-wreck-stadiums

Bob-O: Do you think James Paxton will be a viable SP when he returns? 2016-2019 were some decent years for him, but seems like ages ago.

Jay Jaffe: it *was* ages ago. Just six starts since then and bad numbers, so I don’t have a ton of hope he can sustain health and success. I would love to be proven wrong.

Joe: Moncada, Muncy or Bohm?

Jay Jaffe: I’d go with Moncada, easily

Farhandrew Zaidman: Michael Grove is just the new Ross Stripling/Mitch White? 4 average to plus pitches, swingman type guy?

Jay Jaffe: That seems about right. Not a high ceiling but useful, light workloads, trips to the bullpen and Triple-A while he still has options, would be more secure in another organization

Rickey: Are we in the midst of a historical surge in SB?  On pace to double last year’s league total!  As a fan of the stolen base I’m excited.

Jay Jaffe: i’d say we might be on the verge of it given the new rules and the early returns.

Zach: Best Twins starting rotation since 2006. Am I delusional to be this excited about a rotation ranked 16 out of 30 on the depth chart ranks?

Jay Jaffe: Considering they finished 21st in WAR last year, 16th rates as an improvement, and adding Lopez plus the return of Maeda is nice. I had them sixth-most improved relative to last year in my Depth Charts comparison in mid-March. I think that’s reason to be optimistic. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/spotlighting-this-seasons-most-and-least-i…

re: Gonzo: Is Manaea even going to start?  Looks like he’s behind Martinez, Lugo & Weathers.

Jay Jaffe: he’s… several miles up the road, in San Francisco not San Diego

JT: Have we reached the end of true stardom for Starling Marte? His hard hit rates and SLG really lower his ceiling, eh?

Jay Jaffe: He’s been worth 8.4 WAR in 238 games — about a season and a half — in 2021-22. That’s pretty impressive even without hitting the ball very hard. Has great speed, midrange power, and decent defensive value. Won’t win an MVP award but that’s been clear for a long time.

Paul O: Deivi Garcia, prospect for the Yankees or Alex Reyes make it back to big leagues.

Jay Jaffe: I’d love to see both make it back. The early reports on Garcia were promising this spring. Reyes is still recovering from shoulder surgery; we’ll see if he can return to form this summer.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, that’s it for me for today. Thanks for stopping by and we’ll aim to do this again at the same time next week.