Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/9/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first official chat of the 2021 regular season.

Jay Jaffe: I’m pleased to report that I’m freshly vaccinated with my second shot, but I have to admit that while I wasn’t feeling any negative effects when I set this chat in motion about 90 minutes ago, the mere act of going to pick up my lunch seems to have set off some wobbly legs and general fatigue. Gonna try to power through this for as long as I can, but you might want to have the bullpen ready.

Jay Jaffe: I was up late playing beat-the-clock to finish this piece on Fernando Valenzuela and the 40th anniversary of Fernandomania before my symptoms kicked in https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-fernandomania-40-years-later/. Remarkably, in 20 years of writing about baseball, I had never written more than a few hundred words at a time on one of my all-time favorite players.

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the show

Mike Trout: I am inevitable

Jay Jaffe:

John Olerud’s Helmet: I know hes a 2 time MVP and 1st ballot HOFer but am i wrong to think the Big Hurt Frank Thomas is still somehow underappreciated because his numbers got somewhat buried by all the inflated numbers of the steroid era?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe a bit? The injuries cost him a shot at 600 home runs, which would have elevated his profile a bit, though being tied with Willie McCovey and Ted F’ing Williams at 521 is aesthetically perfect

RIP DMX: Are you now in the MODERNA or PFIZER trials? 2nd shot expect symptoms to worsen after 6-8 hours and betta in day or so (for most, not all)

Jay Jaffe: Pfizer, and I’m 23 hours in, felt fine at 21 hours but now it’s like Wile E. Coyote looking down after going over the cliff.

Apathetic Buccos Fan: Sports discussions are typically focused on salary caps, but what are your thoughts on a salary floor that would require certain MLB teams to spend something more than a minimum amount of investment toward each season? Would a salary floor be workable in the MLB?

Jay Jaffe: The only way it would work is if young players were to make significantly more money earlier in their careers. Otherwise you’ve got a roster of mostly guys making some function of the minimum and a small handful of veterans being way overpaid relative to their skills in order to entice them into what may well be a rather noncompetitive situation

Raphie C: What are your thoughts on converting Chris Paddack to a bullpen piece? The lack of development of a third pitch seems concerning, and with the Padres carrying Adrian Morejon, Mackenzie Gore, and Ryan Weathers, do Paddack’s long term prospects align more with a relief role?

Jay Jaffe: The Padres have a ton of pitching depth, but I’m not sure they need to rush to convert Paddack into a reliever. He had a very nice rookie season, and a meh 12-start follow-up. He does need an effective third pitch but the team can give him some time to find one; I’m not sure working out of the bullpen is the best way to do that. I suspect that sooner or later, the results will dictate his path.

Moonlight Graham: Does Nelson Cruz have two more 40 dinger seasons in him to reach 500?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a big ask. Right now he looks like he can hit 40, but my guess is that he’d need 2 more after this year to close the deal because something will bump him out of the lineup for a stretch or two.

Scott: Regarding the Conforto HBP, I don’t understand why the unpires went straight to the replay booth to confirm that the ball hit him.  They should have had a quick huddle, in which any of the other 3 umpires could have pointed out that a called strike is a strike regardless if the batter was hit.  Your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: it seems to me that the umpires’ first priority should be to determine whether he tried to avoid being hit by the pitch, and that the replay review should be centered around aiding that determination. If I understand correctly, that aspect is not subject to being overturned by replay, which just seems wrong

MM: Dodger-manias during my lifetime ranked:  Fernando-mania > Hershiser-mania > Nomo-mania > Gagne-mania.  Although Fernando-mania is the only one with “mania” in the name.  How do you rank these?

Jay Jaffe: I think that’s the right order. Fernandomania was so huge due to the connection to Latino fans, particularly in light of the Dodgers’ original sin in the Chavez Ravine land grab. Hershiser also gave them a championship. Nomo’s run had an international component that helped to globalize MLB and bring a new talent stream to the US. Gagne was fun but far less impactful than those three

John Olerud’s Helmet: One thing this season has reminded me is how much i despise starting a runner on 2nd in extra innings, im sure youve covered this before but whats your opinion on it?

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t mind the rule last year in light of the tightrope MLB had to walk to get even a short season in, but it’s grating on me more this year already. I’d be happy to lose it.

Sloan: Jay, how do you think about the concept of value wrt  to value in a pure sense versus how teams think about it. Obviously in the past we had the false concept of an “RBI hitter/run producer” that teams not only believed existed, but valued. Could it be that defense in WAR is something of a inverse corollary to this, because replacement level defense seems artificially low, because the minors are full of good/great defenders that cannot hit. The Orioles, for example, could easily decide to be the best fielding team in MLB with freely available talent, but couldn’t easily execute such a plan to have the best hitting team.  tldr – please don’t put Vizquel in the HOF

Jay Jaffe: Replacement level defense doesn’t really work as a concept, as people smarter than me have shown. and as I think you’re getting at there.

The thing about value that to me is sometimes missed when we rely upon WAR is the entertainment aspect. There’s a reason why casual fans enjoy players who can hit for high batting averages and steal bases without being on the same level in WAR as the big hitters. Think of the outsized popularity of Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Ichiro Suzuki or DJ LeMahieu. They’re not the equal of Mays, Aaron, Bonds or Trout, but they’re a hell of a lot of fun to watch, and we do the game a disservice when we focus too heavily upon the things they don’t do

Nate: Leaving aside who might benefit from it during the next election cycle, what are your thoughts on the top vote getter making the HOF in years when nobody clears the 75% threshold?  That person’s almost certainly going to get in eventually and a shutout doesn’t really seem like it’s good for anybody.

Jay Jaffe: I’d be fine if they restored a run-off system for the top 5-10 candidates in a year where nobody got 75%.

mmddyyyy: You articles often differentiate the modern and pre-modern eras. Do you think 1900 will always be the common delineator?

Jay Jaffe: I mean, it depends upon the application. 1900/1901 is a useful divider because we have the box scores and the birth of two 8-team leagues that lasted for 60 years without much change, but for some pitching-related stuff, 1893 — the year they moved the pitching distance to 60-foot-6 makes more sense, and sometimes World War II or integration or post-1960 expansion is the sensible divider.

Aaron: Should socially aware fans care about a player’s mental health concerning how they treat said player from the stands?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s always good to remember that players are human beings, not stat generating robots. they make more money than most of us do, but that doesn’t make them less entitled to being treated fairly and with empathy.

Q-Ball: Heading out to Drummer’s Cove this June?  I’ll be there first couple weeks of June.  Been going there 30+ years now!

Jay Jaffe: Yup, will be up there sometime in mid-to-late June. Really looking forward to it

Q-Ball: June is a little cold to swim, but it’s horseshoe crab and turtle season, you can see tons of turtles via Kayak in the grass of Drummer’s Cove (and all through Blackfish Creek)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t remember having seen horseshoe crabs there until last year but holy hell, those things are amazing, and was fun to talk about them with our then-3-year-old daughter

Buffalo Bill: Jay, do you have any thoughts on the Blue Jays playing Buffalo again this season? How severe a disadvantage does it put them in? Also, as a Buffalonian I’m looking forward to potentially seeing the Jays play in our not so bad AAA ballpark.

Jay Jaffe: given the split between Dunedin and Buffalo and the possibility that these players have family in Toronto, it has to be hard as hell mentally — and probably physically — to deal with all of this. I’m glad to see that Sahlen Field is being upgraded to make it comply with MLB standards. Pending upgrades according to this piece (https://www.wkbw.com/sports/buffalo-bisons-to-begin-season-in-trenton-…)

• Moving the bullpens off the field and behind the outfield walls
• New batting cages built beyond right field
• New weight room and renovated clubhouse facilities
• LED light bulb replacements plus two additional temporary lighting poles

Mr. Burrito: First, hope you feel better soon.

Mr. Burrito: Second, dumb question: When will we have enough stats to know if the current baseball is or isn’t livelier than last year’s. The idea that it’s lighter seems to me (a non-physicist) to run counter to the idea that the ball won’t go as far. And the eye test suggests things haven’t changed.

Jay Jaffe: Thank you. I’ll pull through even if the rest of today is rough. I’ve got my daughter’s tee-ball debut tomorrow and I’ll do whatever it takes to make that.

Jay Jaffe: Justin Choi, one of our new contributors, took a look at what we’ve learned about the ball thus far here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-early-look-at-the-new-baseball/

Jay Jaffe: The conclusions should be regarded as preliminary, and i’d like to see an April-to-April comparison but with last season not starting until late July, that’s not an option anyway

Jay Jaffe: But what we’re seeing is competing forces at work via the lower COR and higher drag, and I can imagine that if you throw weather into the equation it’s very difficult to figure out how all of that fits together

Quarantino Martinez: As a Yankee-watcher, are you concerned about any of the bats (Gleybar, Stanton, Hicks) that slept last year and seem still sleepy?

Jay Jaffe: No. I’d be more worried about Gleyber’s viability as a shortstop

bosoxforlife: Did the Atlantic League ever get around to trying the 62′ pitching rubber. This TTO is getting more difficult to watch every day and velocity is clearly a huge part of the equation.

Jay Jaffe: No, they scrapped what was to be a mid-2019 change. I think it’s worth trying but can understand why no pitchers want to play guinea pig

Zach: Am I crazy to say that Corbin Burnes might be the second best pitcher in baseball

Jay Jaffe: Holy hell is his stuff nasty. In writing about his duel with Berríos from last Saturday I learned how dominant he is with two strikes: he yielded a .136 xwOBA in such counts, lowest in the majors https://blogs.fangraphs.com/berrios-and-burnes-dazzle-in-rare-double-n…

Jay Jaffe: and since then he had another start on the same level. I think he’ll be in the conversation about top pitchers this year so long as he stays healthy

Farhandrew Zaidman: Wouldn’t moving the mound back cause massive increases in walk rates? I don’t see how that’s the solution to solving the TTO “problem”

Jay Jaffe: The idea is that it will reduce velocities, but you’re right in that there’s a lot we don’t know about pitcher control at that distance and how easily pitchers will adapt. My worry is that they hurt their arms from trying to regain that velo at a longer distance

Vermont boy: Was the trade for Odor the craziest move this year?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, i can sort of see the logic in it in that the Yankees feel like they need to replenish their stock of LH power and Odor probably makes more sense for them once Voit returns than does Jay Bruce. It seems like they gave up a lot in talent — an actual prospect and a usable bench piece — but he costs them quite literally nothing. I’d imagine they won’t be attached to him for very long if the results aren’t there

Vlad’s Dad: Hi Jay, love all the HOF work. I’m sure you’ve touched on it in the past but do you think the likes of Fernando, Chan-Ho Park, and even Sadharu Oh deserve to be enshrined in Cooperstown? I’m of the opinion that some players did enough for the international popularity of the game that regardless of their career numbers (in Oh’s case, having no major league career) make them worthy of enshrinement.

Jay Jaffe: I was talking about something along these lines with Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, who prodded me to do this piece while working on one of his own. I think there’s a case to be made for the likes of Fernando and Nomo especially. It’s the NATIONAL Baseball Hall of Fame, so I’m not sure a player like Oh should qualify, but on the other hand, Lefty O’Doul, who helped spread baseball to Japan, would. My idea would be to create a Modern Pioneer designation that could incorporate players and other innovators such as Bill James, Pete Palmer, Sean Forman, Dr. Frank Jobe, and so on.

Estevão: the difference between Bobby Abreu and Tim Raines is HOF hype. great case of a Hall of Fame-ish caliber player that’s dismissed like his stats wouldn’t call for

Jay Jaffe: there’s about 10 wins of difference between Raines and Abreu, which isn’t trivial; in fact, it’s the difference between being above or below the JAWS standard at their positions, but you’re right that Abreu was underappreciated relative to his talents.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Over/under of 0.5 pitchers suspended this season for using foreign substances?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take the over and assume that Bauer is about to be the first.

Matt Arnold: Will we ever see anything approaching 2019 from Keston Hiura again?

Jay Jaffe: I think his 140 wRC+ in about half a season of playing time was overstated but I and many observers who are a lot better at talent evaluation think he can be an above-average hitter. Now, whether he can live up to the offensive expectations for a first baseman might be another matter.

mercedes: Will Yermin get many C starts for the Sox this year? AKA is he a passable defender?

Jay Jaffe: Doubtful. Eric Longenhagen gave him a 20 grade for fielding while writing, “…he can’t catch, nor can he really play first base…” Zack Collins, by comparison, drew a 35 grade last year and has already caught a couple of times so I think we can see which way this is going

Travis: Does Acuna win the MVP when he gets 50/50 this year?

Jay Jaffe: if he gets to 50/50, that hook would be irresistible to most voters

bosoxforlife: With the understanding that moving the mound back creates other situations, the present explosion of K’s and the resulting return to 1968 levels of offense asks for something to be at least tried.

Jay Jaffe: I’m more in favor of tinkering with the margins of the existing strike zone, which is a time-honored way of restoring the batter/pitcher balance, but let’s not overdo the 1968 hyperbole — batting averages may be similar but scoring rates were 1.23 runs (36%) higher last year than ’68.

Will Kenneally: What are your thoughts on Joe Musgrove? Him and Burnes are my 2 favorite guys to watch right now. Musgrove bumping up his K% by 11 points was nuts in 2020. Do you think he could be the best pitcher in San Diego by the end of the year or am I crazy?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen much of him. Big strikeout increase, as you say, but also a 9.6% walk rate and so a 3.42 FIP. I don’t see him as ready to surpass Darvish or Snell if those guys are up to their usual high standards

Guest: Dom Smith’s U-turn in popularity among Mets fans since his rocky first couple of stints in the majors is pretty incredible. Luis Rojas (and the front office) should probably have read the room better and started him on opening day in spite of matchup data, right?

Jay Jaffe: His turn in popularity almost exactly follows his turn in offensive production, which is hardly mysterious. I’m glad he’s shown himself to be a very good hitter but I think obsessing over whether he should have been in the Opening Day lineup at this juncture is pretty silly.

Jeff: Anyone wearing their shocked face that Kris Bryant is, in fact, still amazing at baseball? Unbelievable how that guy has been dragged through mud because of money, and yes it’s the money

Jay Jaffe: Nobody’s shocked. Certainly not me, and not the Cubs, whatever their previous posturing.

Tommy: I got my second shot yesterday as well! not feeling to bad.

Jay Jaffe: wohooo!

Josiah: Jay, Dodgers get their rings today, some fans still view the accomplishment as less than. This obviously ridiculous considering dodgers played the same regular season as everyone else and had to maneuver an extra round that no one has ever had to before. This is just sour grapes from these fans, right?

Jay Jaffe: yes

Jay Jaffe: no matter who wins a championship, there will always be somebody to piss on it.

Jay Jaffe: I think there might be a touch more validity to the complaint about the Dodgers if they weren’t so clearly the best team during the regular season and an historically great team over a longer stretch of time. Their championship wasn’t the product of a short schedule and a fluky run, it was quality winning out.

Yadi’s HoF Jacket: What do you think of the Cardinals performance thus far?

Jay Jaffe: I think that getting Nolan Arenado was a good idea and that they should have gotten another starting pitcher. One week of going 5-2 doesn’t really change that.

Steve Herd: Thoughts on Nelson Cruz re: HOF? Lack of defense and the Biogenesis issue are high hurdles, but what does JAWS think of him?

Jay Jaffe: B-Ref has him at 40.5 WAR which… is a hair better than Harold Baines (38.7) but nowhere near as good as David Ortiz (55.3), and yeah, that Biogenesis suspension sticks out like a sore thumb. Until voters elect Manny Ramirez, there’s nothing to see here.

mmddyyyy: You’ve been covering baseball for a while, what feels different?

Jay Jaffe: You know, i realized that today isn’t just the 40th anniversary of the start of Fernandomania, it’s the 20th anniversary of my laying what was essentially the cornerstone of Futility Infielder, a post about Willie Stargell, who had died that day and who was another favorite of my childhood. So yes, I’ve been covering baseball for awhile now.

Particularly in writing about Fernando I was reminded of how little I actually got to see him during that great run and how many more ways there are to access baseball now. Fernando wasn’t on cable, there was no ESPN, to say nothing of MLB Network or MLB.tv, and so at best I was getting highlights along with newspaper and magazine articles.

Jay Jaffe: Now we have access to every regular season game, and the ability to revisit and quantify every single pitch and play. What a time to be alive.

Jay Jaffe: Stylistically, what sticks out though is the growing homogenization of the game towards power on both sides of the ball, and the deemphasis on the running game. We desperately need more variety in that regard

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is the “middle class” major leaguer disappearing? By that I mean, teams seem more and more to be relying on pre-arb and early arb guys built around one or two mega-contracts. I.e. You can’t pay your set-up man 5 mil per year if your shortstop costs you 32?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, i think that’s what we’ve seen happen in the free agent market in the past several years. Veterans who aren’t elite don’t get the longer-term, bigger-dollar deals that they used to.

Puster Bosey: How long until the obligatory full-length FanGraphs Yermin Mercedes piece? He hasn’t actually stopped hitting since that 8-for-8 start and he hit a ball nearly into orbit yesteday (485 ft!)

Jay Jaffe: I think we’ve got somebody noodling on a piece but I’m not sure. Happy to take up the task if nobody has

Guest: I’d like to think that Dom’s popularity is due to more than his batting- he’s been a pretty eloquent spokesperson on social issues this past year, and he’s also been one of the most visible cheerleaders for his teammates in the dugout whether he’s playing or not. Your mileage re: him as a player may vary, but Opening Day is a pretty symbolic occasion in a lot of ways anyway- starting him as a nod to the fans would have made sense in a lot of ways.

Jay Jaffe: You’re right, he really put himself out there last summer during the George Floyd protests and that was impressive, beyond his multiyear uptick in performance. Still, I think Opening Day is kind of overstated in its importance and dwelling upon a perceived slight when there’s so much else to be concerned about seems rather unproductive.

mmddyyyy: Does leading the league in WAR count as black ink?

Jay Jaffe: in my book it does. Literally.

Estevão: Is Corey Seager the best Dodger hitter? I have a feeling he’ll be by October

Jay Jaffe: Well, his 158 wRC+ in 2020-21 outdoes Betts (153), Turner (144), Taylor (140), and Bellinger (just 112) so I think the case is already being made. Let’s see if it holds up

Jeff: Random but can I request an article on Dave Stieb? Before my time but man nearly 60 WAR pitchers/players don’t grow on trees

Jay Jaffe: Noted!

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I’m on fumes here. Thanks for bearing with me today, this has been fun but I think I need to rest my brain and my body. Tune in next week, and in the meantime, please stay safe!