Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/30/19

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I’m in a spicy mood today thanks in part to having spent several hours listening and transcribing Tuesday evening’s cringeworthy Pirates broadcast while Derek Dietrich hit three home runs  (article forthcoming). That and the leftovers from dinner at Han Dynasty which will constitute today’s lunch. Anyway, on with the show…

fan of graphs: hypothetically, if the padres were to shut down chris paddack. what functionally happens? does he remain on the 25 man roster and just doesn’t pitch? does he get put on an inactive list? sent down?

Jay Jaffe: It would depend upon the date. Assuming the Padres wait until September, they would have the roster space just to let him be. Otherwise, they could option him (which would have service time ramifications and be kind of a dick move) or place him on the IL with, say, shoulder fatigue,

Birch: Any thoughts on Bridich’s comments about beat writers?

Jay Jaffe: Travis Sawchik and Dan Symborski saved us the trouble

Jay Jaffe:

D: Will Stripling get a shot at the rotation anytime soon? He has been very solid and it’s crazy to me he was demoted to bullpen.

Jay Jaffe: For the moment, the Dodgers have the enviable problem of more capable and effective starters than rotation spots, as well as a bullpen that is… an adventure at times. A significant injury within the rotation might lead to Stripling’s return to the fold, but the team could use him in a late-inning capacity if his performance picks up (so far he’s allowed 6 runs and 13 baserunners in 8 IP as a reliever).

Govtman6 : Do you see an infield for the jays in 2020 of Vlad, Bichette, Biggio and Tellez.

Jay Jaffe: It seems possible, but Tellez is struggling lately (95 wRC+), so I don’t know that he’s really the long-term solution at 1B.

Mountie Votto: Thoughts on David Bell’s comments after Suarez was hit by a pitch? Pittsburgh beanball is getting out of hand

Tom: I like how the ump handled the Tim Anderson beaning last night. If you are the kind of team that throws at a guy on purpose, you lose the benefit of the doubt when you throw at him on accident.

Jay Jaffe: Lots of beanball thoughts in the queue. I’d rather umps treat the matter as they did in the Anderson instance. If there’s tension and recent history of hostilities between the teams — as was the case in both instances above — I’d rather the umps err on the side of protecting the players.

Man, David Bell has brought some fire to the Cincy dugout. I’m not sure where four ejections in one’s first 56 games as a manager sits, but that’s an impressive ratio.

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of Reds-Pirates, here’s today’s dispatch on Derek Dietrich and the Pirates’ fusty broadcast of his three-homer game https://blogs.fangraphs.com/derek-dietrich-winds-em-up-and-lets-it-fly…

Voldemort: Do you think we’re looking at a career year for Rizzo?

Jay Jaffe: He’s turned it around after a slow start, as has teammate Kris Bryant. I haven’t really looked closely at what Rizzo is doing but Craig Edwards has a piece today on how he’s beating the shift https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-anthony-rizzo-is-beating-the-shift/

Belli Flop: As a Dodgers fan, Monday’s game and last night were amazing games to watch.  Beginning to feel like 2017 again…I like feeling sad so can you tell me something bad about this team besides the bullpen which is pretty bad?

Jay Jaffe: It’s pretty clear now that Cody Bellinger isn’t going to hit .400. Also, that A.J. Pollock signing didn’t look great even before he was sidelined by his infection.

Buc’d Off: Is Chris Archer salvageable or just a hyped name brand? Seems to be highly rated, but grossly under performs.

Jay Jaffe: 5.57 FIP, 5.75 ERA, 13.0% walk rate, fastball velo down 2.2 mph from 2017. Something is either physically or mechanically wrong, and so far, pitching coach Ray Searage, who’s one of the best in the game, hasn’t seemed to help. Particularly given the performances of Meadows and Glasnow in Tampa Bay (hurt though the latter is), it’s not looking like a great trade for Pittsburgh.

Ben: What are the Phillies options for centerfield going forward, assuming Odubel Herrera is done for the year? I know they were planning on platooning him and Kingery, but I don’t think Kingery is an everyday CF and Nick Williams is a liability in the field.  What is the CF trade market looking like for the summer?

Jay Jaffe: I think that Roman Quinn will be in their CF plans if and when he gets healthy, but until he returns and the trade market picks up, my guess is that Kingery and McCutchen will spend time there. Trade options from outside the division might include Jon Jay, Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson (or maybe Adam Jones if last year’s rejection was simply about his own 10/5 rights and not an objection to Philadelphia specifically).

v2micca: I’m one of those old school fans that absolutely hated the back stop nets when they went up back in the early 2000’s.  I felt like it completely ruined those seats.  Each time there is a call for more protective netting, I instinctively push back against it.  Am I just being selfish in not wanting more seats diminished by the netting?

Jay Jaffe: Consider for a moment that the most expensive seats in any ballpark are also among the most protected, behind the backstop, and that location is also where the scouts sit to make their critical evaluations about talent and performance. Those people deal with the minimal hassle of watching through a screen or netting, so yes, you’re being selfish.

JoeyBoomBats: SI recently ran an article about the Mets voiding Cespedes’ contract due to his fall in a hole that absolutely did not happen while riding a horse. I remember scuttlebutt about the Giants possibly doing the same for MadBum after the dirtbike incident. Has a team ever successfully voided a big contract like that?

Jay Jaffe: The Yankees voided Aaron Boone’s contract after he blew out his knee playing basketball in early 2004, setting up the trade for Alex Rodriguez, but off the top of my head I can’t think of another successful instance.

connor: Why won’t padres promote Urias?  Kinsler is hurting them.

Jay Jaffe: The Padres’ two-year deal with Kinsler suggests they value him significantly beyond his dying bat, but yeah, it’s getting ridiculous .

Gus: If Pedroia retired without playing another game, what are his chances for the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’d guess they’ve pretty low given that he’s short of 2,000 hits, since no player from the post-1960 expansion era has been elected without attaining that milestone.  

Via bWAR, he’s close to (but below) the peak standard, and pretty short (no pun intended) when it comes to JAWS. Well below Chase Utley, who would precede him on the ballot by a year, in both categories, but possessing more hardware (MVP, ROY, multiple rings to Utley’s one):

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Didn’t mean to highlight Collins there.

connor: Free Zac Gallen!  Marlins are clueless.  Agree?

Jay Jaffe: The Marlins are clueless, and Gallen has great numbers at AAA, but I know Kiley and Eric haven’t been blown away (he was a 40+ FV guy coming into the year, and Kiley said recently that his stuff is unchanged https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-15-19/).

Logan C: What do you think would be a long-term solution to this unwritten-rules anti-fun beanball war nonsense?

Jay Jaffe: longer suspensions for pitchers and managers for what appear to be intentional/retaliatory drillings. 15 days for a starter, 7-10 for a reliever would clean things up, I think.

It has no name: Given the dirth of young pitchers having a promising year, Paddock, German, Snell, Castillo etc., what generally is the “innings limit” target for a season?

Jay Jaffe: It varies pitcher by pitcher. General rule of thumb is add 50 innings to last year’s total (including minors), but teams will make exceptions in both directions based on both performance and physical aspects.

Nick: What’s to make of the New York Mess last night?

Jay Jaffe: I turned off the game in the top of the 9th, which, whoops. Mets bullpen has been in the bottom half of the league despite the addition of Diaz who hasn’t been great (3.22 ERA/3.99 FIP) and the return of a Familia face (sorry, but not as sorry as 5.56 ERA/5.52 FIP). Some of that’s probably on Callaway’s handling, but not all of it.

Morbo: Follow up: Does Tellez have a longer leash at 1B because his first name is Rowdy? And, that grades out as an 80 baseball name?

Jay Jaffe: God I hope so. That and his good standing as a Large Adult Son.

Morbo: Do the Cardinals sign Keuchel next week in an attempt to begin overhauling the disaster that is currently their rotation?

Jay Jaffe: It would certainly make sense, particularly given that they’ve apparently ruled out using Carlos Martinez as a starter this year. Plus Keuchel seems like the type of groundballer who thrives in St. Louis, even though they’ve moved on from Dave Duncan.

GSon: Twins.. for real or smoke and mirrors?

Jay Jaffe: The young talent is jelling and their +112 run differential is the best in baseball right now. I’m buying in.

John: The Almora liner to the little girl was horrible to watch last night.  I don’t understand why the nets aren’t all the way down.  I’ve sat upper deck behind the nets at Wrigley for 5 years and they don’t even register.  What is the other side’s argument here?

Jay Jaffe: “I’m a complete asshole who paid good money for these field-level seats!”

Jay Jaffe: That’s it. That’s the entirety of the argument.

Q-Ball: Will I see you over at PB Boulangerie on Route 6 in the next couple weeks?  Or Mac’s Shack maybe?

Jay Jaffe: Wow, who dis? Indeed, the Jaffe-Span Fam is heading to Wellfleet for about 10 days in June. Gonna grab some seafood, some Cape Cod League baseball, a stack of books I’ve been meaning to read, and enjoy watching my daughter revel in the sand, glorious sand.

Q-Ball: So, this is Javy Baez now?  Still bad plate discipline, but ridiculous ability to go oppo and crush curveballs.  Is this the new normal?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think we can ever describe anything Baez does as normal. He’s a player of great and often entertaining, often frustrating extremes — but it’s quite clear the good stuff outweighs the bad.

Yasiel Puig: Is the Cano trade already the worst trade in Mets history? New York history? History history?

Jay Jaffe: If you think it looks bad now, just wait until Diaz is a free agent, Cano is playing part-time, and Jared Kelenic is patrolling center field in Seattle. Dude was just promoted to High-A https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-top-prospect-jar…

Still, I think the deal has a long way to go before it tops Nolan Ryan/Jim Fregosi as the worst in Mets annals, or the Midnight Massacre Tom Seaver trade.

BenZ: How much does sitting out half a season hurt Craig Kimbrel’s Hall of Fame chances? What about if he misses the whole year?

Jay Jaffe: As I wrote multiple times, Kimbrel’s past four seasons already showed significant signs of decline from his elite level, and while he’s still pretty good, I’d say that unless he recovers his dominant form, I’m skeptical about his HOF odds. Missing a year is rarely good given the importance of counting stats to one’s Hall of Fame case, and the tendency to fall off from previous levels of performance.

Q-Ball: What team to you is most disappointing so far?  What team is most surprising in a good way?  Are you going to say Nationals and Twins?

Jay Jaffe: Those are the most obvious answers. I’d also put the Red Sox, Indians and Rockies in the disappointing category, albeit to lesser degrees, and the Rays as somewhat surprising — though we knew they’d be good.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: That is some quality invective you just published. Very enjoyable read. Is it fun to write, too?

Jay Jaffe: Assuming you’re talking about the Dietrich piece, yes, that was a fun one to write, and I’m glad you enjoyed it. It’s also a piece that went through a whole lot of reworking as I dug deeper into the broadcast. I got a late jump on Tuesday night (parents were in town this past weekend, and I owed my family some quality time after spending so much time on the Buckner piece) , and had it run on Wednesday, I’d have missed the Ellis anecdote, for one thing.

vladdeh: Rank them 1-3 for ROS: Trout, Yelich, Belli

Jay Jaffe: History, and our projections, still says Trout 1, and toss-up on the other two. But man, I hope this continues to be as fun to watch as it’s already been.

Belli Flop: What would a realistic Dodgers trade package for Will Smith (the Giants pitcher) look like?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not Will Smith (the Dodgers’ catcher) in return, alas. And very likely not at all. Do you know how long it’s been since the two teams consummated a trade? 2007 according to B-Ref (Mark Sweeney-Travis Decker). And the one before that was in 1985, the one before that 1968, and before that the career-ending Jackie Robinson trade in 1956. Four trades in 63 years! https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi?franch_ID_1…

BenZ: Should I vote for Polanco for starting All-Star shortstop because he has been the best this year? Or am I justified in voting for Bogaerts or Semien because of Polanco’s PED suspension?

Jay Jaffe: I can’t knock somebody for holding a PED *suspension* against a player when it comes to honors, whether we’re talking awards, All-Star, Hall, whatever. I feel much differently about the pre-testing era as it pertains to the Hall, but you probably already knew that.

Trent: Which is more damaging to a player’s HOF candidacy: a domestic violence allegation or conviction; or a positive PED test?

Jay Jaffe: My gut tells me the PED test is more damning but having said that I don’t think we’ve seen an otherwise slam-dunk candidate with domestic violence allegations get held out recently. Among Bonds and Andruw have such allegations but that’s not why voters are excluding them.

Cory: Dansby Swanson is quietly having a decent season. Do you take him or Andrelton Simmons for the next 3 years?

Jay Jaffe: Simmons, though i worry about the effect of that ankle sprain on his mobility.

John: Hey Jay, what’s your take on Cardinals management?  Specifically DeWitt and Mo?   I’m assuming this will be the 5th straight year of around 85 wins but missing the playoffs.  They refuse to spend on elite talent in FA while overpaying for average players(Fowler).  Am I wrong for thinking it might be time for Mo(who I’ve been a long time supporter) to go and get someone with a new philosophy?

Jay Jaffe: Lots of Cardinals questions in the queue, especially ones about Mo, but it’s fair to spread the blame to DeWitt when it comes to spending on elite talent, as he’s the one setting the budget to which Mo must adhere. The thing is that despite the Fowler deal, the front office has scared up some quality players such as DeJong, Bader, Flaherty, Mikolas, and a lot before them, even if not all of those players are as productive (or even with the team) now. Be careful what you wish for.

James: Do you see the Astros making any moves to mitigate this injury wave? Consistent at-bats for Tyler White are not ideal.

Jay Jaffe: My next piece is on the Correa injury. Will discuss some internal options therein.

Egg: If you had to guess: Do you think the Dodgers hitters made substantial improvements, or do you think they figured out a way to read pitchers or steal signs or something else of the sort? I am surprised about the lack of FG articles on the huge jump some players made, like Bellinger.

Jay Jaffe: While I don’t doubt that a team that employs Chase Utley (as a special assistant) is very good at stealing signs, I think the Dodgers are still at or near the head of the pack when it comes to melding the various aspects of scouting and analytics that go into improving and maintaining performance. Turner, Taylor, Muncy, and so on.

I wrote about Bellinger a bit here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-bashing-their-way-to-the-head-of-t… and Devan Fink went into greater detail here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/just-how-hot-has-cody-bellinger-been/. Dude keeps hitting like he is and I’m sure we’ll have more on him.

Manny: WE WERE PROMISED MORE DRAFT CONTENT OR SOME SORT OF BOARD UPDATE WHERE IS IT

Jay Jaffe: WHY DON’T YOU ASK ERIC OR KILEY?

TKDC: Do you not think Kimbrel will sign this weekend?

Jay Jaffe: Oh, i think it’s more likely than not that both K/K pitchers sign once the draft pick compensation thing dissolves. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

ballsandgutters: One thing I like about Jeff Sullivan is that he’s not afraid to call players (like Josh Donaldson) jerks…. or worse.    Dietrich is a an attention freak, not calling him one is disingenuous, regardless if broadcasters go overboard.

Jay Jaffe: I spent hundreds of words illustrating Dietrich’s reputation as a cutup before I got to the meat of the broadcast. I find him amusing, maybe you don’t, but I’d like to think that we can agree there’s no reason for anybody to call for violence against him or presume to speak on behalf of his dead grandfather, both of which John Wehner did.

Flip every bat if you want, pump your fist after every K. This is a game, and it’s supposed to be fun and entertaining. Lighten up.

Daniel: John Wehner’s wiki page has a pretty good intro now…

Jay Jaffe: LOL. Preserving it for posterity before it gets scrubbed:

Jay Jaffe:

Cvantez: I’d say Kirby Puckett getting in the HOF means domestic violence is no barrier, but I think those revelations came out after he’d already made it in.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, sadly.

resumeman: What are your current thoughts on Buster’s Cooperstown chances? He’s still reasonably productive but is clearly slowing down, and 2,000 hits is a looong way off. Think he stays good enough to sail in? Of course a RoY, MVP, batting title, and 3 rings will compensate for *some* regular season falloff but how much?

Jay Jaffe: Moreso than Utley or Pedroia, I think he’s a guy who could break the Rule of 2,000, particularly given his central role in the Giants’ three championships and his outstanding framing work.

cavebird: As for voiding contracts (12:36)—the Braves voided Ron Gant’s contract in the 90’s after an off-season ATV accident.

Jay Jaffe: Ah yes, thanks for jogging the memory.

Dennis: What will it take for the Mets to turn into an analyticly minded team? Can it happen with a different GM or do they need new owners?

Jay Jaffe: BVW bumped up the analytical presence in their front office but it’s still the Wilpons’ team and nothing will ever change until they do.

Jackson: Senzel or Kingery long term?

Jay Jaffe: Based upon prospect-hood (draft position, rankings, age when they were MLB-ready) it’s probably Senzel, particularly given that we’re only talking about a very small sample of good Kingery at the MLB level so far. But it’s nice to see him turn it around and I think he can be a very good player.

DJ Tanner: Is it just me or is NL ROY going to be a helluva race? Paddack, Alonso, Robles, Riley. Tatis could pull a 2nd half like Acuna and take the thing. Excellent crop in the NL right now.

Jay Jaffe: Hell yeah. lots of fun.

Neil: Will Third Base in the foreseeable future catch up to Catcher in the number of HOF players at the position?  Third Base seems to have Beltre as an impending lock for the Hall, but Catcher could stay in front if one of Posey, Molina, or Mauer makes it.

Jay Jaffe: I hope voters come around on Rolen. Simmons seems like a Committee possibility on the catching side.

Nick: I guess folks have a short memory.  The Cardinals spent a lot of prospects to get Goldschmidt and then signed him to a huge deal before he could get to free agency.

Jay Jaffe: A fair point, one that I hadn’t forgotten but didn’t explicitly mention in my above answer.

Jay Jaffe: Ok, the Han Dynasty leftovers and a burning pile of Twitter mentions awaits me so it’s time to wrap up this chat. Thanks for stopping by once again!