Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/15/19 by Kiley McDaniel May 15, 2019 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, running around a lot today after a five-day trip through the Carolinas and I’m flying to Chicago tomorrow to see Quinn Priester, so there’s lots of maintenance things to get done today 1:10 Paul: WHEN IS THE NEXT MOCK 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: Oh yes and in case you missed it, there was a new mock yesterday and we already have a solid half dozen more pieces of dope to go in the next one…which will be whenever we think is time for a new one 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/ 1:11 mark: What is the domino effect if Vaughn goes 1 to BAL? 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: Not completely sure, but my best guess would be: 1. BAL – Vaughn 2. KC – Rutschman 3. CHW – Abrams 4. MIA – Witt 5. DET – Greene 6. SD – Bleday 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: which, again, is just shuffling those top 6 hitters 1:14 John: On Andrew Vaughn’s fall: How likely do you think it is that he could fall as far as #7 for the Reds? 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: Unlikely. We outlined the chance he falls all the way to 11 since it’s technically possible if all clubs act in a need-based way. He’s still consensus top 3, maybe 4th for like every team, so it’s hard to see him getting past 5 or 6, regardless or what we’re hearing their preferences are. 7 may be the lowest reasonable spot he could fall. 1:15 Mike: I know you said Atlanta has been connected to a lot of players gone in your mock’s scenario — who are those players? 1:17 Kiley McDaniel: Well basically all of the guys at the top 7 picks in the mock, but Witt, Bleday, Lodolo, Greene I’m guessing would be the non-Adley four they like the most, with Bishop one of a few in a mix just behind them 1:17 Spider Puig: The Reds have been mentioned as a team that is especially high on Jackson Rutledge. Would they take him over Lodolo? Or is he more of a guy they wanted in the 2nd round before his stock went through the roof? 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, heard them tied to him over a month ago and now he looks like he’ll go in the 7-15 area, so if they think all of the top tier of pitching looks the same, they could go underslot with Rutledge 1:18 Andrew: Loved all the details in the mock! Do the Reds consider the HS route if Witt, Abrams or Greene fall to them, or are they all in on the college guys? 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: I think they would talk any of those if they got there, but college hitter is what they’d like, all things being equal 1:18 Purple Mays Haze: For sliders, four seams and curves, high spin rate (or Bauer units) is better. But for sinkers, do we want high or low spin rates? How about for changeups? 1:19 Kiley McDaniel: Lower is better, but movement/active spin is more important than total spin 1:19 PE: Any guys making moves on FV? I’m particularly curious about Grayson Rodriguez, Hans Crouse, Alec Bohm, Jordan Balazovic, Nate Pearson and the three teen OF: Valera, Robinson, and Julio Rodriguez. 1:20 Kiley McDaniel: Balazovic is probably an up, Pearson probably is, Julio probably is, but we haven’t really discussed those guys in depth yet 1:20 Joshua: Excited to see that the White Sox are targeting, high ceiling prep players after a few years of targeting high floor guys. Who’s a good comp for CJ Abrams? Trea Turner? 1:21 Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been saying he does it similarly to Kenny Lofton, in terms of his actions and style, but he won’t play outfield for at least a few years, if at all. Turner is a possible trajectory as well 1:21 Purple Mays Haze: In general, do MLB clubs want their prospects to spray the ball more (ie be less pull heavy) or is it individual dependent (as in a Gallo doesn’t need to work on oppo). 1:21 Kiley McDaniel: player specific 1:21 Walewander: I can’t be the only Tigers fan fervently praying the scenario in your mock – that Vaughn drops to Detroit – somehow happens. What % likelihood would you give it? 1:22 Kiley McDaniel: Hmmm…lets say 40% 1:22 Larry: Has Hunter Barco’s reported injury impacted his stock at all? 1:23 Kiley McDaniel: Makes you pause since it’s a HS pitcher with an arm problem, but it sounds like the consensus is that it isn’t a long-term issue 1:23 Drew: Has Zac Gallen turned a corner? Or are his stats mostly just SSS? 1:24 Kiley McDaniel: Stuff has basically been the same so I’m thinking mostly small sample, but could’ve improved the sequencing 1:24 Clive: Seems like there isn’t much word on where the Mariners are leaning thus far at No. 20? Y’all mentioned Volpe and Nuñez in the mock, but it appears far less clear than Gilbert seemed last year. 1:25 Kiley McDaniel: That’s true. Teams 10-20 have openly told us they don’t know exactly what gets to them or how they would stack things up at this point 1:25 bb: What aspect of working in a front office would most surprise FG readers? 1:26 Kiley McDaniel: Not sure it’s surprising, but it’s a 12-14 hour day if the club is playing at home that night…81 times…not to mention big events like draft day or trade deadline, etc. You can’t really have a life. 1:27 Kiley McDaniel: You get more personal time if you travel for games, but then also someone else mostly controls your schedule 1:27 J: Is Maurice Hampton generating interest from teams in the top 10? 1:27 Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t sound like it 1:28 J: Listened to UMP yesterday-what game was Texas’s SD at? Lake Travis? 1:28 Kiley McDaniel: and I’m told he was at Tulane on a recent Friday 1:28 Pete: Percentage chance that Florida gets one of Matthew Allan or Hunter Barco to campus? Percentage chance UF gets both? 1:28 Kiley McDaniel: Call it 30% on Allan, 25% on Barco 1:30 J: Any chance Abrams falls to the Giants? 1:30 Kiley McDaniel: No, I think SD is the floor there 1:30 MZ: How possible is it that Tyler Callihan ends up catching at the pro level? 1:31 Kiley McDaniel: Unlikely, maybe 5-10%? 1:31 Larry: Any word on Brady McConnell’s signability as a draft eligible soph? 1:32 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like there’s interest in the comp/2nd round. Not that kind of guy for me, but Cadyn Grenier, Logan Davidson, McConnell, Tyler Fitzgerald, etc. the athletic college SS with offensive potential gets overdrafted usually 1:32 Ron: When does Marco Luciano start playing regular minor league games? Need me some fangraphs stats. 1:32 Kiley McDaniel: After the draft. Buzz is building 1:33 Mike: It appears the Red Sox aren’t tied to any major J2 prospects for the upcoming signing period. Is this just a change in philosophy for the Red Sox (diversify among a lot of different six figure bonuses) or are other teams just doing a better job than them? It seems striking that the Yankees always seem to run laps around them in terms of international signings. 1:33 Kiley McDaniel: Red Sox are easily a top 10 international program 1:33 Darren: Nicky Lopez still a 45 for you or has he bumped that up? 1:33 Kiley McDaniel: We’ve been told he may be a 50 before he got called up, so we’re monitoring closely 1:34 Guest: Thanks for the mock draft. Great info. You mentioned Josh Jung, Jackson Rutledge, Gunnar Henderson, and Quinn Priester with the Phillies. Which of these guys would cost the most (I’m assuming Jung) and who would cost the least? 1:34 Kiley McDaniel: Gunnar would be the least, the others should be right around slot, Rutledge may be a bit above 1:34 Concerned Tigers guy: From what you can tell, The Tigers are likely going to select one of Greene, Vaughn, Bleday or Abrams, right? There’s no rumblings about under-slot RHP or some bs, right? 1:35 Kiley McDaniel: Being able to rule out certain things generally happens when teams get in their draft rooms for final meetings and prices/medicals are widely known and discussed. That hasn’t happened yet. 1:35 Guest: Heard anything or have any thoughts on Jhon Diaz from upcoming J2 class? 1:36 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, multiple above average tools, sounds like a low 40 FV 1:36 Mike: Keeping your ear to the mock-draft rumor mill seems like an entirely different ballgame from scouting prospects. Do you enjoy it? 1:37 Kiley McDaniel: It is and I do. It’s partly silly rumor nonsense but it’s fun when you’re consistently getting ahead of stuff and people notice. 1:37 Wes: Are you a Meg going to record a new GOT podcast after Sunday’s episode? Please make this happen. 1:38 Kiley McDaniel: Should Kiley & Meg record GOT finale thoughts on a podcast? yeah bruh (51.4% | 72 votes) naw (48.5% | 68 votes) Total Votes: 140 1:40 Zach: “Josh Bell can’t play. He’s not a good defender. He’s a big lump. He has bad agility, bad footwork. He can’t run. Supposedly he’s a big power threat, but he hit 12 home runs at first base. This is not a kid! This is his third year in the big leagues! I don’t think he’s got the ability to get better.” – Anonymous Scout, SI MLB Preview 1:42 Jo-Nathan: If you believe that next year’s draft crop is much stronger then what is stopping a team from drafting one of these high salary demand guys and offering them the minimum? If the player signs you got a huge discount and you can sign some other high demand guys, and if they don’t sign then you can get a stronger player with the comp pick next year. 1:43 Kiley McDaniel: People always suggest this and it keeps not happening. Teams aren’t good at projecting the next year’s draft class even at the end of the summer and no one wants to run themselves ragged for six months then get cute and punt their first rounder 1:43 Johson: Has Tommy Henry fallen? 1:43 Kiley McDaniel: He was 89-93, then a month later was 85-88 in the 3rd inning of a game, then was 88-91 recently, which is what he was last year 1:47 John: UCLA has been ranked #1 most of the season, but none of their players made your mock. Are the impact players all underclassmen, or did they just miss the list? 1:48 Kiley McDaniel: Toglia and Strumpf both could go 2nd round. Garcia could go 3rd-5th. Mitchell/McLain are big name underclassmen, there’s a number of 6th-10th round types on that team. 1:48 Sammy Sooser: Any word on Brandon Lewis down at UC Irvine? I root for the juco bandits, and he has been fun to watch! 1:48 Kiley McDaniel: R/R likely 1B so probably 4th-7th area 1:48 Josh: What is the probability that the Orioles do an underslot deal with someone (Vaughn?) for the No. 1 pick? 1:49 Kiley McDaniel: Let’s say 15% at this point 1:49 Guest: WVU LHP Nick Snyder has been performing in the shadow of Alek Manoah this season. He’s not even listed on THE BOARD. He looks impressive to me: long & projectable (6’7″, 220 lb) and putting up eye-popping numbers (55.1 IP, 30 H, 25 BB, 86 K). Where does he go in the draft? 1:49 Kiley McDaniel: May get added, 90-93 with a 45 slider but lots of length 1:50 Dan: LSU fan here with a question about Maurice Hampton. It’s been reported on our message boards that it is likely gonna take somewhere in the $3 million range for him to pass up college. Do you think this is feasible in the 28 spot where you have him mocked? Especially considering the Brewers have one of the lowest bonus pools this year 1:51 Kiley McDaniel: The slot at the MIL pick is $2.49 million and I haven’t heard the $3M figure. Hampton could well go ahead of that, so even if that figure is right, I don’t see a huge problem: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-mlb-draft-signing-bonus-pool-and-pick… 1:51 Kiley McDaniel: I’d guess he’s 85% likely to sign, since this is apparently the RAG percentage chat 1:52 Kiley McDaniel: Also, you guys have sent in some truly insane questions, we’ll close with some of the printable ones 1:53 Fangraphs reader: I know you’re in draft mode, but any buzz on Yolbert Sanchez? Feels like if he was going to sign with the Orioles, it’d be done by now. 1:54 Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t made calls on this, but either it’s a staring match with a club for this signing period, or he has a deal for the next signing period. We heard he was offered $2M right when he cleared, if he waited until July 2nd. 1:54 Connor Joe Buck: What makes Kyren Paris a polarizing prospect for teams? 1:54 Kiley McDaniel: Hitting ability has varied this spring 1:55 Elwood Blues: Zion Williamson decides to follow MJ and quit basketball for baseball. Which organization would you want him to join, and how would you want them to develop him? 1:55 Kiley McDaniel: Zion would def embrace launch angle. I’d like to think he would be a scarier Prince Fielder. 1:56 Kiley McDaniel: maybe Joey Gallo? 1:56 Kiley McDaniel: LET IT EAT, ZION 1:56 Big Fan: Kiley, could you shed some more light on the Andrew Vaughn situation and how it might play out? With universal DH talk seeming to pick up, why wouldn’t one of the NL teams like the Braves grab him? 1:57 Kiley McDaniel: Asked around about this yesterday b/c it seems relevant if Vaughn slides, which most clubs think he won’t last past about 5. Sounds like the expectation is it will happen, but in the next CBA, which is the 2022 season 1:57 Egg Farts: GIVE ME WHITE SOX DRAFT DOPE 1:57 Kiley McDaniel: feel like the mock had a lot of it? 1:58 bob: If a midround team promised a top 3 guy their entire bonus pool could they conceivably get him to slide? 1:58 Kiley McDaniel: If he’s a top 5 talent, you’d have to convince the first 10 clubs that he wouldn’t sign with you and often you can’t do that with an abrupt change of plans late. Gotta seem unsignable from the jump. Your family being rich really helps, b/c that’s been the consistent part amongst all the kids that have gotten paid and slid later in the draft on demands 1:59 Kiley McDaniel: the best leverage for not signing is not needing the money at all 2:00 Kiley McDaniel: and I can tell you that in draft room meetings the scouts will be like “i went in that house for the in-home meeting and goddamn those people are rich, they don’t need this money” 2:02 Another Braves Fan: In reference to the NL teams that already have top tier first basemen, if Vaughn falls to them, why not take him anyway? A bat of that caliber would surely be a very valuable trade chip, even if those NL teams won’t use Vaughn themselves. 2:04 Kiley McDaniel: Have you seen the FA market for 1B? What if he ends up being CJ Cron instead of Pete Alonso or Goldschmidt? You took a guy with a small margin for error that you can’t use and everyone knows you have to trade him. I’d still take him, but that’s the argument on the other side. 2:04 Slurve: What did the Mock First Rounds look like in Trout’s draft? yours or any you can recall/access… 2:05 Kiley McDaniel: I was working with KG at BP that year and I remember in the live chat I got that Grichuk would be the first pick like 15 minutes before and I think he got that Trout was the next pick about 15 minutes before? They were both mocked right around there. 2:05 Seamus Catuli: Who is last MLB draft prospect that had people as hyped as NBA fans are about Zion? 2:05 Kiley McDaniel: Harper 2:06 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe David Price and Strasburg were both around that level? 2:06 Colton: Counterpoint: 12-14 hour days 81 times a year means baseball *is* your life. Which is not necessarily a bad thing. 2:07 Kiley McDaniel: better than many other jobs, for sure. and i love baseball, but that gets to be a negative at some point. many people look at that and say “yes, i’ll do that, if the money and power are there to make that social swap worth it” 2:08 Kiley McDaniel: if you kill yourself traveling and are the 7th-10th most important voice on any decision you feel strongly about, you would eventually get sick of it 2:08 Dmitry: Can you please explain”active” spin vs total spin? 2:08 Kiley McDaniel: Total spin – gyro spin = active spin 2:08 Kiley McDaniel: active spin / total spin = spin efficiency 2:09 Wonderboy: Are scouting directors for teams in the 20s bothering to go to a lot of games for players ranked in the top 10, or are they trying to make sure they get the most value out of their second, third, and fourth round picks? 2:09 Kiley McDaniel: Nope, you don’t see them there unless it’s a weird situation or a day without many other games 2:10 Mcley KiDaniel: Fight for Eno’s amusement 2:10 Wonderboy: Does anyone name their bats in real life? Isn’t this like naming piglets on a hog farm? 2:10 Elijah Wood: Hi I’m Elijah Wood! Please check out my new body switch comedy “This DEFINITELY Isn’t Mine” also starring Sofia Vergara! In theaters July 2013 2:11 J Orgus: (BEGIN ENCRYPT) Kiley i haven’t paid taxes since 2012, is that bad? (END ENCRYPT) 2:11 Registered Sax Offender: crab. lobster. please help me name one more crustacean!!! 2:11 Registered Sax Offender: hello kylie, they are going to kill me if you don’t name a crustacean but it cant be crab or lobster because i already thought of those but i still need a third crustacean please help me 2:11 Danger Doug: kylie there are whispers in scouting circles that you cant name a crustacean with the exception of crab and lobster can you deny this????? 2:11 Dr. Fortnite: kiley please help me now this chechen warlord has me captive and says you need to name 7 cephalopods and provide a fun fact for each of them or bad things will happen oh god please help me kiley 2:11 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 2:11 Kiley McDaniel: That was quite a journey.