Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/25/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I’m back from my annual Cape Cod trip, and i could almost pass for tanned and rested.

Jay Jaffe: it appears that a technical glitch prevented the word about this chat from getting out until just a short while ago so I’m going to take a couple minutes to finish lunch while the queue fills up

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my piece from yesterday — my only piece in the past week — about Mookie Betts’ strange season https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mookie-betts-has-been-in-a-funk/

Gary: Evidence suggests Gary Sanchez got the timing right on his leg kick in the middle of an at-bat in Tampa in May and has been on a tear since then. How often do you think mechnical things are figured out mid-game like this? (Also, hey, he can still hit)

Jay Jaffe: It’s been great to see Sanchez turn things around given the unending shit avalanche to which he’s been subjected by a certain segment of the local fans and media. Color me skeptical that Sanchez hadn’t been experimenting with dropping the leg kick behind the scenes before going that route in-game.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s a quote from Aaron Boone via the NY Daily News’ Kristie Ackert:

“He’s worked really, really hard behind the scenes too and having the courage to make some real adjustments. But it’s been rooted in a lot of hard work and a lot of hours and correcting that. And now you’re seeing a real quiet, lower half a much more balanced hitter,”

Jay Jaffe: https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-gary-sanchez-20…

Havok: Disappointment Scale of 1 to 10, 1 being complete apathy – how disappointing is it for Vlad to not be in the HR derby this year after last year’s incredible showing?

Jay Jaffe: I’d put it in the 3-4 range. Been following the Derby long enough to know that you’re never going to get every top choice every year. It’d be great to see if he can win one after coming up just short in 2019, but he’s got plenty of time ahead of him for that

Soundwave: How close is deGrom to being in Koufax territory?

Jay Jaffe: It’s impressive what deGrom is doing and has done, but the shape of their performances is different – he’s got much less volume to his body of work, but in a tougher scoring environment

Jay Jaffe: If we’re going straight by JAWS it’s 48.9/46.0/47.4 for Koufax versus 43.2/40.5/41.8 for deGrom, but there’s about a 7-WAR gap in terms of offense incorporated into that mix (2.7 for JdG, -4.2 (!) for Koufax)

matt: Did you get to any Cape League games while you were out there?

Jay Jaffe: Yes! Went to Opening Night at Orleans, where we saw the Firebirds play the Harwich Mariners. It was great to be back, and the crowd was very emotional esp. in paying tribute to former commissioner Paul Galop, who died in late May.

BILL: what best makes Scott Rolen’s case for the Hall in your opinion and do you see dick Allen ever getting in

Jay Jaffe: elite defense (3rd in runs) plus strong offense (9th in OPS+, 16th in batting runs) is a winning combination

Jay Jaffe: That’s Rolen. As for Allen, I think he’ll get in, albeit with maximum bittersweetness given that he passed away last December.

Soundwave: Have the Pujols, Miggy, & Votto deals served as a deterrence for teams signing players into their near-40s at big money?

Jay Jaffe: maybe a little when it comes to the left-spectrum types, but those deals haven’t entirely disappeared — Betts is signed through age 39, Harper through 38. They’re more athletic than the aforementioned, and so the hope is that they’ll age better

Appa Yip Yip: I think the Vlad derby disappointment thing is more because it’s happening at Coors than anything else. I don’t really care about the derby but watching Vlad crush taters on the moon would have been something else.

Jay Jaffe: That’s fair.

James: Chris Paddack’s fastball of late is looking closer to his 2019 fastball and he currently has the lowest FIP, xFIP, and SIERA of his career. I wouldn’t have guessed that by the way fans talk about him, though.

Jay Jaffe: right? I said as much via Twitter earlier today — got so many questions to the effect of WHEN ARE THE PADRES GOING TO CUT BAIT AND LAUNCH HIM INTO THE SUN WITH THAT 4.00 FIP earlier this season. Patience with young pitchers is always the preferred route.

Guest: Rolen in the HoF?   BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.

Jay Jaffe: he got 52.9% of the vote in 2021, a strong indicator that he’s headed there eventually. You don’t have to show up for his induction — we’ll party like hell without you

Jung Bong Jovi: Does Atlanta even have anyone to sell at the deadline?  Charlie Morton maybe?  I don’t see getting much in return for any of the relievers, except maybe Matzek.  And I hope Freeman signs longterm.  Just an ugly season for them that doesn’t seem to be turning around any time soon.

Jay Jaffe: I’d be surprised if they do a big teardown because they’re not that far out of the NL East race and the talent should be performing better; they’re more likely to add a starting pitcher and hope for the best. If they do decide to sell, they’ll never trade Freeman, but among their other pending free agents besides Morton are Smyly, d’Arnaud, Greene, and Sandoval, any of whom could be of some use to a contender even if it’s not as their first choice or top solution.

A Redicent fan: Can you make me feel better about Luis Castillo? Maybe give me a historical comp that will reassure me that he will bounce back?

Jay Jaffe: Hmmm, he’s doing a good job of limiting hard contact, and it’s worth noting the gap between his ugly 5.61 ERA and his much more respectable 3.99 xERA. What’s weird though is that not only are his defense-independent rates all going in the wrong direction relative to years past but his groundball rate is down as well. Might be somebody I take a closer look at soon.

The Stranger: Wander Franco called up at 20 and homered in his first game. Statistical lock for HOF?

Jay Jaffe: As debuts go, that was very cool. While he’s hardly a statistical lock, i’ve noted before that players who debut at age 20 (or younger) have the odds stacked in their favor when it comes to the Hall of Fame. A 20-year-old who gets 1 PA historically has an 8.7% chance of making it to Cooperstown, rising to 16.8% at 100 PA and 25.4% at 250 PA.

WinTwins0410: Jay, I clearly don’t understand WAR as well as I should. What explains Bill Buckner’s ridiculously low career WAR total of 15.1? (Per B-Ref) Just intuitively it seems like a guy with 2,715 hits, almost 500 doubles, seven seasons of above .300 and a very low strikeout rate would look good with advanced stats. I know that he didn’t walk a lot — so that negatively impacts his OPS — and I know his fielding was so-so at best (although his .9916 fielding percentage for a first baseman is ahead of the likes of Rod Carew, Lou Gehrig, Dick Allen and Willie Stargell). But still — a WAR of 15? For a 20-year major leaguer, that kind of total would seem hard to achieve! (Deron Johnson’s 6.2 is even worse). Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Despite the career .289 batting average and the seasons above .300, Buckner hit for just a 97 OPS+ in his career due to a meager .321 OBP and .408 SLG, which means he was below average — 38 runs below average for his career. He was adequate defensively (+12 runs for his career), below average on the bases and at avoiding double plays (-14), but what really crushes his value is that he was doing this primarily as a first baseman, and the offensive bar there is much higher. He was a combined 161 runs below average for his career when accounting for position.

Matt V: Javier Baez’s K/BB ratio is 98/8. He’s been so good at everything else so far that he’s still providing valuable, but how sustainable is this?

Jay Jaffe: y-i-k-e-s

Jay Jaffe: Baez is an above-average defender at a key position, which gives him a solid floor for value, but with that type of K/BB ratio, everything depends on his BABIP. At .310, he’s nearly a league-average hitter, and roughly a 3.5-win player, prorated, but if it dips like it did last year (.256) he’s replacement level.

Jay Jaffe: Of the pending free agent shortstops, I think he presents the most risk.

WinTwins0410: Jay, also, I enjoyed reading your 2010 BP obituary of Willie Davis (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/10288/one-hoppers-will…). With the benefit of another decade, I have to ask: has your view changed more positively on a Hall of Fame case for Willie Davis? What’s your thought?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks! Davis is 17th in JAWS, about 9 points below the standard. I can’t really make a stronger argument in his favor thank I can for the 9th, 11th, 12th, and 16th guys — Beltran, Lofton, Andruw and Edmonds — who are about 2 to 8 points ahead of him, and all with significantly higher peaks.

Ben: If deGrom breaks the single-season ERA record this year, would that make him a Hall of Famer even if he never put up another All Star level season?

Jay Jaffe: No. Single-season feats aren’t enough for the Hall. Just ask Roger Maris.

Derek: So… The Giants, huh?

Jay Jaffe: They’ve caught the Dodgers and Padres while both were dealing with a whole lot of stuff and not playing up to their high potentials. They’ve hit on so many reclamation projects, and gotten big breaks with the turnarounds of Posey, Longoria, and Belt, though the last two of those are now injured, and we’re waiting to hear about the severity of Belt’s knee. They’re 11-5 since Longoria went down, but can they withstand another big loss?

Jay Jaffe: Right now our odds give them an 81% chance of making a playoff spot and a 13% chance at the division. up from 5.5% and 0.2% on Opening Day. That’s amazing.

Ben: Who has done the most to improve their Hall of Fame chances so far this year? Posey? Molina? Kimbrel? deGrom?

Jay Jaffe: Good question. All to some degree have helped their cause but to me it feels as though it’s been most important for Posey and Kimbrel given that both were in danger of losing out on opportunities for key roles — part-time C, non-closer — if they’d gone further into decline.

Dave C: Who has a better chance of ever making the hall- Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly?

Jay Jaffe: I think Hernandez given the defensive metrics and appreciation for his skill set there

Ben: I’m curious if you’re familiar with teams doing work regarding players’ mental health and how it pertains to performance. I’m also an NBA fan, and the discourse surrounding Ben Simmons and his passivity and lack of aggression has been a hot topic since the Sixers lost in the playoffs. Do teams try to analyze these factors, and is there any value (both for competitive reasons as well as for the player’s mental health) in trying to do so?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not overly familiar with it but I’m sure some teams do analyze those factors, and I believe there can be value in it, but I also think that teams keep that stuff pretty close to the vest lest the public get wind of it, and that it’s far removed from the kind of public “discourse” one gets via frustrated fans and red meat talk radio hosts

Sharps: What do you mean by “left-spectrum” types?

Jay Jaffe: the left side of the defensive spectrum — DH, 1B, LF primarily.

Who Me: When do Marlins trade Starling and what can they get for him? How about Yimi?

Jay Jaffe: Probably in late July along with everybody else. See Kevin Goldstein’s piece as to why teams tend to wait to make deals — they rarely happen this far out https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-teams-wait-to-make-trades/

Ed H: Thoughts (or perhaps an article) on Jose Ramirez as a HOFer? Seems like he’s on the right path, but you don’t hear much talk about Jose and the HOF.

Jay Jaffe: He had a couple of massive seasons at 24-25 and would appear to be in the midst of a 3rd one at 28, but his 30.1 WAR through age 28 would merely by 26th if he didn’t play another game this year, and even if he adds another 4 WAR he’d be 17th, with some HOFers below him (Chipper, Brooks, Thome!, Lindstrom) and non-HOFers above or alongside him (Bell, Wright, Zimmerman)

Uncle Spike: What’s wrong with Gleyber Torres?  His plate discipline actually looks improved but he’s just not getting qualify contact.  Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: He’s been a big reason the Yankees have disappointed, quite frankly, and I feel like their decision to push him back to SS will carry long-term ramifications for the roster. They really need to be in on one of the big free agent shortstops, but having signed LeMahieu complicates that unless they move DJ to 3B.

Jay Jaffe: Torres’ quality of contact is just anemic for a guy who had 38 homers just two seasons ago.

William Ashley: There is a lot of talk of the 80 grade hit tool for Wander Franco.  Who from recent MLB history have actually displayed 80 grades for each of the offensive tools?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a question for Eric Longenhagen or Kevin Goldstein, but I can tell you that 80 tools are extremely rare

Scotty: There is a report that Scherzer will only accept a trade if he gets an extension with the new team…. do you think that’s a bluff?

Jay Jaffe: no, because he has 10-and-5 rights and has to authorize the trade anyway. The acquiring team would have to request a window to negotiate with him so presumably the agreement would be in place before he greenlights the deal

Homer Jaffe Simpson: Random non baseball question: but as a New Yorker, do you find yourself being an ahole at random times to people who deserve it or are you nice to everyone? Having a chat with my lady and I need another northeaster to settle our discussion.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t call it random but there are occasionally times when I am away from the city and I observe myself “New Yorking” it, which I define as speaking up in order to get a faster resolution to something (say, pick up a prepaid order) instead of standing around waiting for somebody to notice me.

Jay Jaffe: I’m reminded of Johnny Carson’s definition of a New York minute: “‘the time it takes for the light in front of you to turn green and the guy behind you to honk his horn.”

Jay Jaffe: Life just seems to move a bit more quickly here, and New Yorkers get antsy when the rest of the world isn’t up to that pace.

Italian beef w/ giardiniera: When the camera flashed to Kimbrel in the 8th he was standing in front of the fence, waiting to come in. I was thinking to myself “He must be so jacked to come in and finish this thing off.” How wrong I was lol

Jay Jaffe: Given the number of walks Davies and his relievers issued I wasn’t surprised to hear about the middlemen not realizing that a no-hitter was in progress, but very surprised the word hadn’t filtered to Kimbrel.

Mike Ortman: Awesome to see the Negro League stat integration onto Baseball Reference last week.  Also, MLB and NLBM seem to be really forming a strong partnership.  If the first to benefit with a HOF induction is Minnie Minoso or Buck O’Neil, who would you guess would be next?  Or will it take forever for even those two to finally be recognized?

Jay Jaffe: Awesome indeed. I really think the additional statistics strengthen Miñoso’s case, but I don’t think they help O’Neil as much; his stats that are now considered major league aren’t all that impressive, and much of his case relies upon his trailblazing as a crossover coach and scout. It was noteworthy to me that neither of those guys came up when I asked Larry Lester or Sean Gibson about who this helps when it comes to the Hall of Fame (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baseball-reference-launches-major-overhaul…).

Jay Jaffe: I’ll have more about the Negro Leagues stuff sometime in the not-too-distant future

Don: Watch any college baseball? Root for anyone? Sometimes those games seem more pure and characteristic of the youthful spirit of the game to me. There are special, memorable moments that’s seep through in the big leagues, but often times the players seem a bit jaded with the common “work” mentality, understandable as it may be.

Jay Jaffe: I can’t seem to find the time to catch up to college baseball – while I was on the Cape, i didn’t even have a TV, so any baseball I watched was via phone or laptop, and it never really occurred to me to check in on the College World Series stuff. It’s my loss, surely

Tony Kemp: Am I good now????

Jay Jaffe: Good question! A 148 wRC+ is worth a closer look, so I’ll see about finding time for one

Dalton Wilcox: The Cubs! How’s about them?

Jay Jaffe: It’s amazing how much better a team they are with a healthy Kris Bryant and a non-replacement level Baez, but that rotation,meh.

Italian beef w/ giardiniera: Do you think Scherzer is stipulating that because he’s worried a team would trade for him and then overwork him because of his expiring contract?

Jay Jaffe: No, i think he just doesn’t want to make a short-term move and then have to move again after 2-3 months with a new team.

Angels: Did you expect Rendon to be this bad so soon? What does the rest of the season look like? The next 5 years? Wasn’t he on track to be a borderline HOF prior to being in the angels?

Jay Jaffe: I think Rendon is just banged up  — groin, knee, triceps injuries have all cost him time, and I suspect he could be pressing. His swing rate is at a career high while his contact rate is near its low. Not tremendously worried about him long-term… yet.

Jay Jaffe: And i’ve never particularly seen him on a HOF path. 32.2 WAR through age 30  — what he had coming into this season — is a guy who has to stick around and be very good for several more years and extremely good for a few more to have any kind of shot.

Don: Has any research been done on how the decision to go to college affects HOF chances? The common sense answer is that less time would lead to lower chances, to me at least, but do you know how it actually plays out? Maybe the average age at debut for a HOF is late enough that the 3 or so years of college don’t affect that exceptional of a player. Also a bit curious about the breakdown of how HOFs entered pro ball. Just thinking out loud and curious about your thoughts on any of it.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve never studied it, probably worth a closer look.

Hafez: Should the Astros be concerned about Zack Greinke? Never been a high strikeout guy but his K/9 is way down and batters are making tons of contact against him. Is it possible he’s the team’s 5th best starter?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I don’t know that they have special reason to worry. Worth noting that his velo is up relative to last year and his contact numbers aren’t bad. With Greinke you just never know what’s by design unless he tips his hand. If he showed up and said he’s going to pitch his next start left-handed, they’d probably roll with it.

Billy Beanie: What do the A’s do about their SS situation? Gonna be hard to keep up with the Astros with Andrus’s negative WAR. (Incidentally, how unforgivable is it that they let Semien walk after he expressed a desire to stay and ended up taking a one-year deal to switch positions?)

Jay Jaffe: As I noted when he had his elbow scare (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-if-the-rockies-needed-more-trouble-trev…), I think the A’s might be the best short-term fit for Trevor Story if the Rockies trade him, which they need to do.

Jay Jaffe: But I don’t think the A’s are going to pay Story long-term.

Mike Ortman: Follow up: Buck O’Neil just needs to be viewed as a “contributor”.  That should be so freaking obvious by this point.  Joe Posnanski has written about it, and Bob Kendrick agrees.  Like you said, he was the first coach right, and as a scout, we have him to thank for signing black HOFers.  Not a question I guess, unless I put it this way: considering all the ugliness on the last ballot (Schilling, Vizquel, and yes even Helton to a much lesser extent), can we not treat ourselves to honoring one freaking feel good story once in a while?

Jay Jaffe: well put.

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, lots of good questions in the queue but I’ve reached my pitch count, especially after a layoff. Thanks for stopping by and have a great week!