Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/18/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to my first chat of the second half of the 2023 season

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got Hall of Fame on the brain after writing a four-part series on the active players making progress towards Cooperstown. Part IV just went live, covering relievers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday’s Part III addressed Ohtani and starting pitchers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…

Jay Jaffe: Part II was shortstops and outfielders https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep… and Part I catchers and the three bases https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…

Kyle B: Hey Jay! Over the all star break we heard a ton of talk about the new CBA and started hearing whispers about the next one….do you think we are staring down another lockout in 2026? Possibly missed games in 2027?

Jay Jaffe: there’s a fun thought. While I think some owners are dumb enough to try another lockout and make noise about instituting a salary cap, that will only happen if Hell freezes over and Rob Manfred performs in the Ice Capades. I don’t think we’ll see missed games

Jed Skeptic: Selling Stroman and Bellinger seem like the *obvious* moves for Jed to make. What are some bolder things to consider , in order to give this org a necessary shakeup ?

Jay Jaffe: Probably trading cost-certainty guys such as Happ and Hoerner, not that either one is going to bring back that much because they’re not exactly blowing the doors off things. Sure, you could trade a pre-arb guy like Justin Steele, but where is that really going to get you other than a couple more years away from having a nice young controllable starter? The real problem here is that this isn’t a particularly young roster with high-ceiling guys. You’re not going to turn it into a contender by wheeling and dealing very easily

BenZobrist4MVP: Thank you for the Cooperstown Notebook series, Jay! I’m curious about Christian Yelich, since you didn’t mention him. He has had somewhat of a rebound this year and is younger than Semien with more career WAR. I know he wound need several more peak seasons, but do you think it’s possible for him to get back on Hall track?

Jay Jaffe: Circa 2019, Yelich looked like he was on a HOF-bound path, but in the 3 1/2 seasons since, he’s totaled 7.2 WAR, which is about what he averaged in 2018-19. He’s hitting the ball harder now than at any time since those two big seasons, and his 2.8 bWAR is his seventh-best season, but he’s only got the aforementioned two as his seasons above 5.0 — he needs about four more good ones to really look like a solid candidate, and this is for a guy with a history of back problems. I’m just not at all optimistic.

Spach: What do you think about Trea for RoS?

Jay Jaffe: I think he left his mojo in Los Angeles. Jeez, what a bleak season. High chase rate, eaten alive by four-seam fastballs. Maybe you can assume some positive regression based on his age and track record but I don’t think he’s a guy I’d bank upon to get hot.

BenZobrist4MVP: Is pitcher defense accounted for at all in bWAR? If so, how much of a JAWS bump do great fielders like Greg Maddux, Mark Buehrle, and Zack Greinke get from their own fielding? If not, is that something we should take more into consideration or is the defensive value too negligible to matter?

Jay Jaffe: Pitcher defense is already baked into the run prevention and the adjustment for the quality of defense (RA9def in the Player Value section), so those guys don’t get double-counted for their glovework.

Jay Jaffe: Pitcher Gold Gloves: whoop-de-damn-doo

coors lightyear: how bad was the mookie betts trade

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, it looks better today than it did at the outset of the season, which isn’t saying a lot, but Verdugo is having his best year since 2020 and Wong is a cromulent backup catcher (albeit with lousy framing). And look how financially flexible the Red Sox are! They can sign aces like Corey Kluber, roll out a big extension for Trevor Story, and, uh…

Deeee: I’ve enjoyed your HOF series recently, possible piece on managers/front office members coming?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll write those guys up as candidates; i don’t think it’s as much fun to cover them in mid-career.

mmddyyyy: After you write about a player, are you more excited to watch them play?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. While of course it’s watching the performances that gets me interested enough in a player to write about him, it’s often *after* looking at the numbers that I gain a new appreciation and start to notice new things.

Cameron: With how bad the AL Central and how good the AL East is do you think it’s time to eliminate divisions and just have the AL/NL only?

Jay Jaffe: Division play is supposed to make it so that teams play the bulk of their games in close proximity and keep the amount of travel under control. Do away with divisions and you’ve suddenly got a whole lot more travel for everyone; even this year’s more balanced schedule upped the total estimated air miles by 7% and certainly increased the number of times each team has to cross multiple time zones, which is what really contributes to fatigue and jet lag. I have no doubt that the division system will be reassessed in the next round of expansion, but I do hope they preserve some semblance of it; it’s a hidden quality-of-life issue for the players.

Guest: For position players and pitchers, the formula for current voters seems fairly predictable, and at least fairly close to your thinking. Some blend of overall value with peak output. Throw in some weight for counting number milestones, playoff success, and whatnot. But for relievers, it seems much more arbitrary. Billy Wagner on the verge of enshrinement while Nathan and Papelbon don’t get a sniff. Is the cement dry on voter thinking on relievers, or is there shifting thought on what weight to give to innings, usage, rate statistics, leverage, playoffs and more?

Jay Jaffe: I think with the Wagner candidacy we’ve seen voters get a bit more interested in rate stats, as his are so extreme. I’ve noted that he has the record for the lowest opponent batting average and highest strikeout rate at the 900-inning cutoff. Kenley Jansen just pitched his 800th inning, so if you lower the bar, he’s got the lead in both categories. I’m not sure how much lower you can go in innings than Wagner and still be a viable candidate, though.

Long story short, I think voter opinion on relievers is somewhat malleable, but they do do enjoy some amount of sizzle, which is probably why Nathan and Papelbon didn’t get far in their candidacies

Mike M: Yeah, yeah, Ohtani won’t get traded, but where would you love to see him play out the rest of the season?  Assuming he did get traded

Jay Jaffe: For selfish reasons I’d be glad to see him playing half his games in New York. The fan in me would love to see him in Dodger blue.

Curious: I have a conflict about the HoF.  On the one hand, I would like to see certain players in there, such as Bonds and Flood; but on the other, their absence is a credibility issue for me.  Paradoxically, I feel like I both care and don’t care.  Have you had to resolve a similar feeling?

Jay Jaffe: I think you have to understand that it’s an imperfect institution whose membership has been shaped by some outsized forces and whose electoral processes are tinged by industry politics. I don’t think there’s anyone who agrees with every selection; my hope is to see some additions that I agree with to offset the ones I don’t.

The other thing to remember is that the Hall isn’t just the plaque room and the endless annual arguments. It’s a a world-class research facility and a wonderful, quirky museum of the game’s history. Over the past decade or two, the Hall has done a good job of modernizing its exhibits. It’s worth a visit even if you’re conflicted, because you’ll find much to love there.

Chris: The Cardinals were recently rumored to cover Logan Gilbert. Would you do a Jordan walker for Gilbert trade if you were each side?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t do this if I’m the Mariners. Walker might be a big-time bat but his defense is a negative; his value takes a huge hit if he’s limited to DH, and I would rather see a zombie one-legged Bill Veeck in the outfield than see Walker chasing a fly ball.

mac: Have we seen the last contending Yankees team for years? They’re already missing the playoffs this season, and they’re bogged down with expensive mid-late-30s declining veterans with a continuing inability to develop their prospects into good major league hitters. What’s the chance they’re a last place team in, say, 3 or 4 of the next 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: But the magic of Sean Casey is about to turn them around!

Jay Jaffe: He’s going to TALK to players!

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the whole picture is as dire as it looks right now. Volpe has made good progress after his early struggles, and guys like Peraza and Cabrera are too young to give up on. I think I’d trade Gleyber Torres now and open up an infield spot to give both a chance to assert themselves.

Steve: I’ve started looking at some future HOF candidates and I was surprised to see how underwhelming Yadi Molina’s WAR numbers are. What does his JAWS ranking look like?

Jay Jaffe: The short version is that his case looks a lot different once you factor in pitch framing. I touched upon it in the first installment of this year’s HOF progress series above but this is probably the most recent comprehensive overview of the topic: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/well-see-you-in-cooperstown-buster-posey/

Bert: Snell and Hader for a package of Leiter and Rocker +… who say no?

Jay Jaffe: The Rangers. Rocker just underwent TJ but I don’t see them sacrificing him AND Leiter for rentals given the strength of the current roster.

Bert: If you’re the Padres do you regret making the Soto trade now? Wood continues to rise, Gore is settling in as a mid-rotation piece, Abrams isn’t walking but getting better

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think so, because the Soto trade really did ignite fan interest in the team, and he’ll still bring back some quality young players if they do decide to flip him (assuming they don’t think they can re-sign him)

BCB: Next season the NBA is implementing a midseason tournament for a cash prize in order to bring some excitement to the early part of the schedule since a lot of people tune out until the playoff hunt. Do you have any fun gimmicky ideas that you think MLB could try out? Doesn’t have to be super realistic necessarily but just interesting.

Jay Jaffe: My super-gimmicky idea is let only the top four teams in each league into the playoffs.

Scratch that, if we want to make it a little wild, yes, let’s do this. Expand to 32 teams/4 divisions per league. Each division winner gets into the playoffs, and a tournament among all the other teams gets the winner the spot as the visitor in a one-game Wild Card against the worst of those division winners. A hot week could get an otherwise 100-loss team a shot in the postseason

Bert: If Tatis goes on to string together a bunch of 5-6 WAR season throughout his twenties and early thirties do you think the writers vote him in?

Jay Jaffe: I think his shot at the Hall of Fame is going to depend as much on what he does off the field as on. He can still be the exciting, demonstrative player that he is, but he’s going to have to carry himself as a role model and demonstrate real growth to convince voters that he understands he made a youthful mistake. I think he’s capable of redeeming himself, but it’s not going to happen just by stringing together 30- or 40-homer seasons.

Jay Jaffe: Whoops, that’s a word salad. let me re-edit.

Planet Dust: Dan briefly responded to a question (not from me) about Acuna’s drop in strikeout rate in a chat a few weeks back, basically saying it looked sustainable. I was wondering if it’s as dramatic as it appears and how common this sort of drop is. It seems like a huge deal to me but maybe it really isn’t.

Jay Jaffe: From a recent Davy Andrews piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-time-ronald-acuna-jr-is-back/):

Acuña is taking more strikes this year, but he’s making up for it by whiffing way less. He’s cut his strikeout rate by an astonishing 11.5 percentage points, from 23.6% to 12.4%. I checked strikeout rates all the way back to 1900; excluding the shortened 2020 season, only two qualified players have ever dropped their strikeout rate by 10 percentage points:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: so yes, that’s pretty uncommon.

Joseph: Hey Jay! I know you made a comment about it in Part III of the Cooperstown Notebook, but do you think the Mets will trade Verlander/Scherzer and what that kind of deal looks like?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s going to be very hard to deal them. Both have full no-trade protection, and both are obviously owed a ton of money, some amount of which will have to be absorbed by the Mets to get any kind of return. I can see them eating $20 million and getting a couple of top-100ish prospects, and maybe build out a larger deal to get some ready talent as well.

Marshall: How would you rank Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, and Grienke in terms of “greatest pitcher of the ’00s”?

Jay Jaffe: Probably along the lines of JAWS, with Kershaw and Verlander neck-and-neck

Failed Rebuild: Hi Jay: for teams that are out of it,  why not trade someone (like CWS with Giolito) now rather than 8/1. Acquiring team gets more starts and thus more value.

Jay Jaffe: There’s certainly something to be said for that, but it usually means overpaying by going the “buy it now” route instead of the auction route. Most teams on either side of such deals have a hard time pulling the trigger because they harbor hopes they can get a better deal

Anon21: Does Acuña get his 40 homers? I say yes, because I have a superstitious belief that he can just change his swing and hit 6 in a week if he wants to (based on watching him hit 6 in a week several times before).

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s going to take superstition; he’s got 23 HR now and projects for 14-15 depending on which system you’re using, and for a guy who’s been exceeding projections through the first half to do that in the second half as well isn’t a shocker.

Pedro: What are your thoughts about how Peraza will fare now that Yankees called him up finally?  Will they give him as much rope as Volpe has received?  Thanks in advance

Jay Jaffe: It’s a matter of opportunity. I don’t know that they’re going to give him a clear shot at daily playing time come hell or high water they way they did Volpe; they’re probably going to have LeMahieu and/or IKF in the mix too.

Benny: What happened to Yasmani Grandal? Through 2021 he looked like a dark horse Hall candidate (at least if you count framing value and go by fWAR instead of bWAR). But the last 2 years he has been–not good. How did he so suddenly go from All-Star caliber to sub-replacement caliber? This year he isn’t even walking or framing, which used to be his 2 standout skills.

Jay Jaffe: My hunch is that the knee and back injuries and his workload have caught up to him.

Chip: Jeff, I’d like to request that Fangraphs informs us ahead of time if there is going to be a week in which Cooperstown Progress Report, 2024 ZIPs Changes, and Trade Value Series all get released. I have a bunch of PTO and I took none. None!!

(Love all the stuff coming out lately. Thanks!)

Jay Jaffe: Jeff’s not here, man.

Jay Jaffe: July is a big month for us on the site because of the draft, the All-Star stuff, and the things you note, and later this week and all of next will feature my Replacement Level Killers series, highlighting weak spots on contenders. You might need a staycation to keep up!

Insert Witty Name Here: If Greg Maddux came up in todays game, would he still become a HoFer?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’d have a harder time getting noticed due to his lack of velocity, honestly, and it could take him longer to reach the majors than his actual debut at 20. But I think he’d probably break through eventually thanks to his supreme command and pitchability.

Broader HoF: Joe Posnanski brought up Vin Scully in one of his latest blog posts, mentioning that he believes Vin should make the hall as a contributor (i.e. beyond his already having received the Frick Award), and I was curious as to your thoughts on this point. Do you feel that this is viable/that Vin deserves a spot in the Hall? Or is that opening a can of worms? (I’m not sure one way or another, though I think I side on Vin already being recognized as much or more than any broadcaster already)

Jay Jaffe: While I’d put him ahead of pretty much every other broadcaster who ever walked the earth, I think this feels like opening a can of worms, especially if it prevents voters from considering more players.

Angels help: Dodgers would probably offer the most top end prospects for Ohtani and we suck at developing our own talent unless it’s trout or Ohtani. Will Arte’s ego keep him from moving him at the deadline? Or will he be traded somewhere else?

Jay Jaffe: I think he won’t be traded in part because of Arte’s ego (including a belief that he can be re-signed, which absolutely won’t happen if he’s traded), and in part because the Angels won’t be so far underwater that the move is the obvious one.

Chip Locke: Have you tried your hand at Immaculate Grid? It is a great Remember Some Guys test. Or, the sometimes more fun, Definitely Remember This Guy But Just Remembered He Spent a Miniscule Amount of Time on Team X test.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I’ve been playing more or less daily for the past few weeks. It’s a fun little game and I applaud both the game’s inventor, Brian Minter, and the folks at Baseball Reference for recognizing a good thing and giving it a larger platform. it’s a nice little success story

Jake Marogersnik: Who do you think is the next unanimous HOF entrant, if anyone? Pujols, Ichiro, Miggy, or Trout seem the most likely imo

Jay Jaffe: Ichiro is probably the only one of those I can see getting 100%. Each of the rest will have some sour asshole saying, “But he didn’t do ____” or “But his contract…” and thinking that justifies a no-vote.

Guest: If you had to pick yu darvish or sonny gray ros who would you rather have?

Jay Jaffe: probably Gray because Darvish has been getting hit lately.

Astros: Shouldn’t they be more willing to exceed the tax? They just won the championship. Do you see the Belli and Stroman rumors coming true? Chicago probably wants to send money and get better prospects? Or am I reading them wrong?

Jay Jaffe: They SHOULD be willing to exceed the tax, but the war profiteer has always been frugal, and I’d bet that if a Bellinger/Strman deal goes down, it will happen because the Astros were able to stay below the threshold, possibly by unloading another salary elsewhere.

Q: Scott Harris tells Javy Baez that he’s not going to start in 2024. Does Javy opt out?

Jay Jaffe: no, because he’s never, ever, going to see a contract of that size again given how badly he’s played in Detroit.

Jon: I know Kelenic is still young and he’s picked things up in July but his K% is still atrocious. Long term, do you think he is anything more than a decent OF?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if he’s quite the star in the making that the Mariners hoped he would be, but I think there’s still time for growth. He’ll be cheap for awhile yet, so you might as well figure it out.

Guardians Maniac: If you were the Guardians how would you handle the glut of middle infielders? Cleveland has Brito, Freeman, Gimenez, Arias and Rocchio all available for at most three spots. Are Freeman and Arias worth enough to get something useful in return? Or has Cleveland pickled themselves?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll be honest, I don’t have a deep knowledge of all of the prospects here, but I think one real issue is that both Gimenez and Rosario have been so mediocre that they wouldn’t command as much in trade as they would if they were playing up to their capabilities. I’m sure you’d get something for Freeman (50 FV last yer) and Arias (45 FV this year) but i don’t think you’re going to get game-changes.

Guest: What are the chances that Semien strings together a Beltre-esque run of excellence through his 30s and puts together a strong HOF case?

Jay Jaffe: not very high but he’s put himself in a position where it’s at least possible.

Marshall: I just looked up Acuna’s stats, and his per-162 game averages are 38HR and 40SB. That’s pretty awesome!

Jay Jaffe: he’s pretty incredible!

shortstop: Probably the only time Ortiz and Belanger have been compared for their offensive abilities.

Jay Jaffe: My thinking too!

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, a lot of good questions int he queue, many of which would take more time to answer than I can do in a chat (I don’t have a catchy two-sentence solution to replace Brian Cashman at GM, sorry).

Jay Jaffe: I’m headed up to Cooperstown for Induction Weekend on Friday. If you’re there, give me a shout!