Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/11/20

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. First off, here’s my piece from today about Fernando Tatis Jr.’s statistical dominance and the joy he’s bringing https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-enters-the-stratosphere/

Jay Jaffe: And here’s yesterday’s dispatch about the Marlins’ unlikely — and likely unsustainable — success amid a massive coronavirus outbreak https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-outbreak-marlins-skate-to-the-top-…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Inaccessible Rail: Have you or anyone else looked at how lost playing time (wars, strikes, pandemics) affects one’s chances of HoF enshrinement?

Jay Jaffe: I took a stab in a 3-part series here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-1/ (change the last digit in the URL) I have a couple stray thoughts that might lead me to revisit that down the road. It’s also worth noting that old friend Travis Sawchik did some of the heavy lifting for a piece on players missing time for WWII https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-year-off-might-do-to-baseb…

James: Manny Machado has logged 735 PA in a Padres uniform and has been good! At what point should the Padres be concerned that their $300 million man may actually be a good player instead of the excellent one that got him said contract?

Jay Jaffe: They should be far more concerned about Eric Hosmer being sub-replacement level (-0.2 WAR through 2+ seasons) for $144 million. Good-not-great won’t kill you even if it’s expensive. Bad-not-good might do the trick.

Inaccessible Rail: The Mets seem to have a strategy of buying low on guys who were hurt or had down seasons like Betances or Wacha. This strategy never seems to work for them, but I see it work for other teams pretty regularly. Is this bad scouting or just bad luck?

Jay Jaffe: Probably a little from column A, a little from column B. Note that Porcello, who also fits the bill, has a 6.82 ERA but somehow also a 2.87 FIP.

Jay Jaffe: I’d give it time before going into full-on panic about any of those guys individually, but collectively, in the context of a team that’s lost Syndergaard and now Stroman for the year… whew, it’s not gonna be a good one in Queens.

Sum: Jay, hope you and the family are well. tonight’s Marlins/Jays game is scheduled for a 6:37 start time. do you know why these scheduling idiosyncrasies (still) exist? was/is it used to stagger start times for some logistical reason?

Jay Jaffe: I’d be lying if I said I understood the logic of the various start times we’re seeing around MLB these days. Haven’t given it much thought as to why; i just turn on the TV when I do, sometimes after looking at the schedule, sometimes not.

caesar_solid: Thoughts on Spencer Howard’s debut?

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t see it and honestly don’t know much about him beyond what I can read in a Top 100 capsule, but jeez, he’s got 30.2 IP above High-A, so I’m not at all surprised to see that he got lit up

bighen: Would two of the Mets top 5 prospects be enough for Johnny Cueto? Asking for an agent masquerading as a GM

Jay Jaffe: It might be but that’s not enough to make a difference in the context of what ails the Mets now, and when you add the fact that they shed talent in the Cano and Stroman trades, it starts to look self-defeating. As it is, the Mets are 23rd on THE BOARD in terms of total talent https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-in-season-prospect-…

Eli: Time to worry about Gary Sanchez? Outside of his transcendent 2016, he has been really inconsistent with either his offense or defense (or both) being excruciating to watch

Jay Jaffe: I wonder if all the focus on defense, and particularly on that new stance, has cost him offensively. But before I panic I want to know if he’s actually healthy; he plays through some lower body problems and it generally ends up costing him.

Raphie C: Hey Jay, loved the piece on El Niño — you mentioned that Tatis Jr. is likely to see some regression from his meteoric numbers thus far — I’m wondering if the same can be said for his teammate Manny Machado, whose low offensive numbers belie a .222 BABIP and a 40.8% hard hit rate. Is this just an unlucky start for Machado, or indicative of more trouble down the road?

Jay Jaffe: His EV is down a bit, as is his xwOBA, but he still has a .270 xAVG and .456 xSLG, so I think there’s a bit of bad luck in the mix.

Sonny: As a Batting Average appreciator (it’s an important stat! Just not the most important stat) I’m torn on DJ and Charlie B putting up pinball numbers. All #s are weird this year but what do we do if both guys are still running down all-time stats in 3 weeks?

Jay Jaffe: We’re always going to have to take the 2020 numbers with a grain of salt; comparing anything this year to a single-season record is flat-out ridiculous. Doesn’t mean we can’t marvel at it if somebody hits .406 or posts a 1.12 ERA, but that won’t be the equal of Ted Williams or Bob Gibson.

Jay Jaffe: But I do think, as I said at the FanGraphs NYC event last fall, it’s time to give a shit about batting average again, particularly given how low the leaguewide numbers are

WinTwins0410: Jay, I know there are a million baseball books out there, but have you ever read Richard Lyttle’s “A Year in the Minors”? It came out in 1975 and was on my school library’s bookshelf when I was a kid. You and I are about the same age, and I remember reading it as a kid and being struck by seeing the name of an MLBer I’d actually heard of — Cubs pitcher Doug Capilla — in the book, when Capilla was a minor leaguer. Curious if you’ve ever heard of the book and if so, I wonder why the book hasn’t held up more. (It may be that it’s not that great of a book!)

Jay Jaffe: I’ve never heard of it, actually. I’ve got so many recent baseball books in the pile — it turns out having a preschooler at home during a pandemic is a recipe for not ever having a chance to read anything longer than a few thousand words. Interested if anybody else out there knows this book.

Estevao: I commented on an earlier chat that the Dodgers could field a lineup strictly of a players drafted by the organization with Smith, Beaty, Lux, Seager, Rios, Joc, Cody and Peter’s but I forgot to mention they could do the same with the starting rotation, Buehler, Kershaw, Stripping, May and Gonsolin

Jay Jaffe: You forgot Urias.

And yes, it’s a remarkable collection of homegrown talent even if Lux is kind of lost at the alternate site right now

Estevao: What happened with Jose Ramirez?

Jay Jaffe: He was great, then very bad, then very good again. I know Craig Edwards checked on him multiple times last year; this appears to be the most recent https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-old-school-approach-failed-jose-ramire…

YardGoat: Hello Jay. I hope you are doing well. I’m curious, what is the oldest a player has debuted and made the HOF (excluding delayed due to segregation)?

Jay Jaffe: It looks like it’s Hoyt Wilhelm, who was 29 years and 267 days old when he debuted in 1962. He made up for lost time by pitching almost to his 50th birthday.

Jay Jaffe: Wilhelm also homered in his first plate appearance (which didn’t come until his 3rd outing) but never again.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s the full Stathead query on HOF debut age-seasons, https://stathead.com/sharing/PoEs6

glt4dc: Of all the assorted changes made to MLB in 2020, a) which one do you like best/least, b) which one do you think is most/least likely to return in 2021?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure yet whether I dislike the extra innings rule or the expanded playoff format less yet, but I suspect it would wind up being the latter; I just think it’s dumb as hell if a division winner goes 0-2 and is eliminated.

Jay Jaffe: The 7-inning doubleheader thing doesn’t really bother me, but that’s not to say that I like it. I suspect that might have the best chance of sticking as players don’t seem to mind it.

Estevao: I’m almost certain we’ll see at least one big upset in the first round of the playoffs because of the length of the series, are ppl underestimating the potential for that to happen. Best of 3 in baseball is too short

Jay Jaffe: Yup

WinTwins0410: Just a follow-up on my earlier question — the New York Times did actually write about the book when it was published (makes me want to dig up a copy and take a look at it): https://www.nytimes.com/1975/04/06/archives/a-year-in-the-minors.html

Jay Jaffe: noted, re the minors book

Scott: What do you think about the report about installing a humidor at Fenway Park?

Jay Jaffe: Probably much ado about nothing because it’s close to sea level, but I support the effort to bring some uniformity to the storage of balls.

Big Joey: Ketel Marte is still showing off his elite contact skills, but will the power return? xSLG is .508, but exit velocity is down

Jay Jaffe: the EV is down by nearly 3 clicks but the xwOBA isn’t off by so much. He’s hitting a lot more fly balls and a lot fewer grounders; if that’s a conscious effort due to a change in approach or swing, i’m not sure that’s the right call given his speed. But I’d give it a bit of time before being too concerned

Start times: The Red Sox are starting games at 730 this year opposed to the usual 710. They do not have to wait for fans to arrive from work. The 6th inning started after 10 pm last nights, it’s kind of pathetic.

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, don’t see the point of pushing later; 6:30 makes more sense than 7:30 if everybody is at home already.

bighen: When do I sell all my Amed Rosario stock?

Jay Jaffe: wasn’t it like 10 minutes ago that he put it all together? .319/.351/.453 , 114 wRC+ after the All-Star break last year.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Nonbinding poll

Guest: Miggy has put up decent numbers so far this season. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: He’s on the list of guys I’m keeping an eye upon as I’ve been following his descent for awhile.

Derek: Has any team been more disappointing (non-covid-impacted division) this season than the Diamondbacks? Ketel at least looks fine, though still not quite what he was last year thus far, but other than that bright spots are few and far between. (also I have given up trying to figure out what they are doing with Varsho but that is probably another topic entirely)

Jay Jaffe: Bumgarner has been terrible but maybe the back issue explains it. Robbie Ray and Luke Weaver have been dreadful as well, not sure what’s up there, but with the Padres and Rockies both on the rise, it may not be Arizona’s year.

Derek: How old was future HOF-er (kidding, mostly) Mike Yastrzemski when he debuted?

Jay Jaffe: 28 years, 275 days. And while he’s unlikely to be a Hall of Famer, it is SO F’ING COOL that he’s put it together given his bloodlines and the tragedy in his family. I wrote about that last September… wait, I have something for this

Jay Jaffe:

Tommy: Is Plesac’s success this year sustainable?

Jay Jaffe: 24/2 K/BB rate is damn impressive but holy hell WTF were he and Clevinger doing breaking protocol. Those guys both deserve to be hit with a sack of doorknobs by their teammates

Chris: Kyle Lewis is awesome!!

Jay Jaffe: Another very cool breakout story. Jake Mailhot wrote about him recently, if anyone missed https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-lewis-is-proving-it/

Jay Jaffe: I imagine that you could read by the glow of Meg Rowley’s smile when it comes to Lewis.

Laffey Tuffy: What kind of contract do you think MLB teams will give Mel Rojas Jr after the 2020 season? More or less than Merrill Kelly got after the 2018 season?

Jay Jaffe: Rojas will be heading into his age-31 season, so I’m not sure that there will be teams lining up around the block to sign him, and I don’t have a great sense of how he’s succeeding in the KBO. Under normal circumstances, Kelly’s 2/$5.5M deal represents a pretty low-risk move, but in the wake of the short season and limited revenue, teams are going to find every excuse not to spend money. I’d guess that if he comes back to the States, he more or less matches that (2/$6M maybe).

A-Rod Apologist: It seems like Mitch Haniger will not play this year. Does he have a future at all or should the Mariners move on and find someone else to complement Lewis and Kelenic next year?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s too early to give up on Haniger, particularly as he’ll still be inexpensive. The fact that he’s missing a whole season says a good deal about the length of the season and timing of his surgery

Dan: Do you expect Verlander to return this season?

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical.

Aceman: Whats the odds of Jose Abreu making HOF if he played whole career in MLB?

Jay Jaffe: I’m skeptical given that his game is so one-dimensional — he’s in the red both defensively and as a baserunner.

Jay Jaffe: Abreu had 20.9 bWAR from ages 27-32. That’s higher than just 6 of 20 HOF first basemen, and two of the guys below him only wind up there because of WWII service.

Jay Jaffe: I mean, “modern day Orlando Cepeda” isn’t the worst thing to be but I’m not sold on the Hall credentials https://stathead.com/sharing/LODsA

Cube Jockey: Is anyone is the HOF because of padded stats from playing through the WW2 years?

Jay Jaffe: I think the case can be made against Hal Newhouser, AL MVP in 1944 and ’45, and Lou Boudreau. They led their respective classifications (pitcher/hitter) in WAR (24.x) during WWII and might not stand out so much if the competition were stronger, though both had good years outside that window.

Sonni: Over/Under on how many games the St. Louis Cardinals play in the 2020 regular season?

Jay Jaffe: 51.5

Inaccessible Rail: Yeah, why was a humidor installed at Citi? Alonso’s 53? I thought that place was famously hard to drive the ball.

Jay Jaffe: honestly not sure unless adding them around the league is just a gradual thing, or something that’s driven by teams requesting it. I only learned of it a couple hours ago and haven’t really read up on it.

Nick: How long until we all admit that, current claims to the contrary notwithstanding, the best player in baseball is still Mike Trout, not Fernando Tatis, Jr.?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not making that claim. Tatis might be the more exciting player based on the swagger he brings but nobody is in a class with Trout for the sheer consistency of his excellence.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: 20 games for Alex Cintrón. 6 for Laureano.

Jay Jaffe: I saw 5 for Laureano, not 6. Knew Cintron would get hung out to dry because of his recent history — Manfred’s binder on him has to be the size of the one he has on Joe Kelly — and the fact that there’s no union to appeal on his behalf.

Estevao: There are European soccer matches being played with not nearly as much COVID cases throughout the process. What is the US doing wrong?

Jay Jaffe: Well, this administration turned a public health crisis into a political one. We don’t test or contact trace adequately, and there’s a unique strain of American shithead that things his/her personal liberty to NOT wear a mask comes before taking the tiniest precaution to keep others safe.

Jay Jaffe: (left out the word NOT the first time I pubbed that)

DBRuns: Jay, have you seen any indication of whether we’re operating in a juiced-ball environment in 2020? My observation is the ball is not traveling as far as this time last year, but I haven’t seen any data yet.

Jay Jaffe: Rob Arthur at BP had a thing the other day about the ball being less juiced than last year

Jay Jaffe: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/60826/moonshot-the-202…

Derek: Looks like even a 16-team field won’t be enough to get Trout back to the playoffs 🙁

Jay Jaffe: We have the Angels 9th in the AL in terms of playoff odds, just behind the Red Sox, with the Tigers (9-5!) the real surprise interlopers

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure that things stay that way; give Adell a bit longer to settle in, for one thing

Big Joey: Cole has been good, but not elite. Just a slow start-up, still getting loose?

Jay Jaffe: Under the conditions it’s a miracle any pitcher is performing well. His most recent outing wasn’t great but he still K’d 10 in 4.2 innings. I wouldn’t worry about him

Guest: RE: importance of batting average, is it the aesthetic quality of baseball with higher batting average you’re advocating for, or something else?  To me it does seem like baseball is more fun to watch with more hits / less strikeouts, but maybe that’s not universal?

Jay Jaffe: I definitely think there’s an aesthetic/entertainment quality to it and that at a time when MLB is struggling to grow or maintain its audience, that such considerations should be factored into what we want baseball to be and where we want the game to head.

I get the fascination with power hitting and power pitching, understand the high valuation of strikeouts for pitchers and dismissal of same for hitters — and I’ve helped promote those things over the past decade and a half — but the style of play has become very monochromatic and I think that’s a bad thing.

Pie: Can we call Kevin Gausman a great get for the Giants yet? Held 96-99 deep into his last start with good secondaries and command

Jay Jaffe: Farhan Zaidi has taken some very interesting flyers that have panned out to some degree. Gausman, Yaz, Alex Dickerson, Donovan Solano… very interesting to see what degree those successes can be maintained.

David: lets say the hall of fame let you redo membership. Would you favor a bigger hall smaller hall or similar size

Jay Jaffe: Under that scenario, I think as a matter of principle I’d keep it the same size and go one in/one out. So long, Chick Hafey, hello Barry Bonds.

Logan: To what extent will the Machado, Hosmer, and Myers deals impact the Padres’ willingness to extend Tatis at this point?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think they’ll be much of a factor. Tatis entered the season at 1.000 service time. By the time he’s into the serious money, Myers will be long gone and Hosmer will be closer to the end than the beginning.

Lyle: As you mentioned in today’s article, there’s a lot of young talent in the game today.  Based on WAR accumulated by the players in the relevant age category (e.g., 27 or younger, 25 or younger, etc.) what year did the league have the most young talent?

Jay Jaffe: I have no idea but it would make for a great study.

Nolan: Here is the answer to Lyle’s question: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…

Jay Jaffe: that’s a starting point. You’d need to adjust for the number of teams and would probably also want to include pitchers (or track them separately)

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes:

1. Alex Cintrón, as a coach, is eligible for membership in the MLBPA, though I won’t claim to know if he’s actually in it.
2. The 5-game suspension was Nightengale being wrong. Rosenthal confirms 6.

Jay Jaffe: huh, “All players, managers, coaches and trainers who hold a signed contract with a Major League club are eligible for membership in the Association. In collective bargaining, the Association represents around 1,200 players, or the number of players on each club’s 40-man roster, in addition to any players on the disabled list.”

I did not know that

Jay Jaffe: not exactly surprised to see that Nightengale was wrong. It’s tough to beat Ken AND be right

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, it’s time for me to head out. I have to go to Greenlight Bookstore to sign the copies of The Cooperstown Casebook I donated for that membership drive a couple weeks ago. On that note, if anyone else wants to buy a signed copy, here’s the link to use: https://www.greenlightbookstore.com/book/9781250071217

Take care, be safe, enjoy those Tatis dingers, and we’ll see you next week!