Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/4/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and happy post-trade deadline day!

Jay Jaffe: I’m still recovering from the past few days. I stayed up until an ungodly hour writing up the Luis Castillo trade on Saturday night (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/squeezed-out-of-seattle-luis-castillo-land…) even while knowing that the Tarik Skubal trade would become the bigger news

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about the Gausman to the Cubs trade https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-land-a-potential-playoff-starter-…

Jay Jaffe: Rang the Adell bell https://blogs.fangraphs.com/former-angels-in-the-outfield-jo-adell-is-…

Jay Jaffe: and finally gave Dustin May his day https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-tap-their-farm-system-to-add-d…

Jay Jaffe: If you missed anything — and I’m still catching up, because when i was writing, deals were flying around like it was a dust storm — the landing page for all of our coverage is here:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-fangraphs-trade-deadline-roundup/

Jay Jaffe: I believe that as usual, we still have a winners & losers piece, the ZiPS post-deadline outlook, and the top prospects traded guide in the pipeline

opifijikl: Great articles on May, Adell, and Gausman. How do you at FG select who writes what article? I’m impressed with how much team-specific context you’re able to include, along with interesting thoughts on the futures of the involved teams. How do you get smart on everything in such a short time? Were there any deals you wanted to write up but couldn’t?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks! Some of it is just timing, some of it is affinity for a player, and some of it is familiarity with a team’s situation. I carved out Saturday night waiting for something to happen and grabbed Castillo when it came across the wire, because I’ve written about him before and did some stuff on the White Sox rotation. I wrote about Jo Adell’s breakout last year, and about Dustin May’s breakout earlier this year (one of many May articles I’ve done, usually the sad ones regarding his injuries)

Jay Jaffe: Oh, and I had just done a predeadline postmortem on the Blue Jays where i connected the dots between Gausman and the Cubs, who weren’t on his 8-team no-trade list.

Doing the Replacement-Level Killers series also attunes me to various needs and connections. That’s kind of my spring training for deadline deals. You say the Guardians have an outfield production problem? I got it.

opifijikl: What was your most surprising trade deadline move?

Jay Jaffe: The Cardinals trading May within the division was a bit of a surprise, and I didn’t think the Arraez to Phillies deal made sense given how badly they need to improve their defense. Instead htey played musical chairs and brought in a guy who has worked hard to improve but who bumps others into less familiar positions

Big Fan: Deeply sad Braves fan.  How can I ever love my team again?  And curse you, Jacob Degrom – you would’ve been so happy here!

Jay Jaffe: I agree that getting Lane Thomas, Tyler Mahle, and Brent Suter isn’t particularly exciting when there were bigger names out there, but I think the sting of deadline disappointment only lasts so long because a lot of these deals, for as much as we hype them, don’t end up moving the needle much. Then again, sometimes wacky stuff happens, like all the outfielders the 2021 Braves brought in.

Justin: Surprised Holmes and Taylor brought back a top 50 prospect? That one stood out to me

Jay Jaffe: Yeah. I like Clay Holmes and think he’s a good fit for the Cubs with that defense and that rotation situation, but if he’s just a rental, even by also getting Tyrone Taylor that’s not enough for me to give up a 50-FV infielder on the left side. Likewise with the Brewers giving up Alexander Frias, also a top 50 guy (50 FV) in the May trade

Jay Jaffe: Granted, i didn’t know much in the way of specifics about either of these guys 24 hours ago because I’m not on the prospect beat, but credit to our prospect team for helping us assimilate so much information on the fly.

Baseball Learner: Do you think we see Volpe and Dominguez again someday or are they just done?

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure we haven’t seen the last of them in the Bronx because injuries happen, but it’s clear that the Yankees realize they’re not the droids they’re looking for right now, and I suspect the reality is that they’ll be on the move at some point this offseason. Particularly Volpe, with George Lombard Jr. just promoted

war2d2: Jay! Hope you had an exciting and fulfilling Trade Deadline Day and that Baseball Santa brought you that late-inning reliever you always wanted.

Jay Jaffe: It wasn’t so much what I wanted but I learned a lot about Ryan Zeferjahn, such as the fact that he exists and wasn’t a guy made up by https://bsky.app/profile/productiveouts.bsky.social/

Jay Jaffe: My depth of knowledge of Angels middle relievers isn’t enough to drown an ant.

ImKeithHernandez: I always assumed relievers are so volatile because the samples are too small, but is there something else? When are you confident that a reliever is actually “good?”

Jay Jaffe: Some of it is looking at their pitch modeling scores (PitchingBot and Stuff+) to see what their weapons are. OK, this guy isn’t missing a ton of bats right now and walking too many guys, but does he have a pitch that makes batters chase? Does he have a gap in his repertoire and a team that can teach him a new pitch or tweak an existing one?

Baby Yoda: Did the Tigers get less for Skubal than the Cardinals got for May? (I don’t think so but the fact that we even have to talk about this…)

Jay Jaffe: No, and both River Ryan and Zyhir Hope are closer to the majors than those two — Frias is just 18 and there’s a lot of space between him and the majors

hayz11: What are your thoughts on the Red Sox deadline moves? Discourse is all over the place on them. While I agree that it felt like they overpaid in most of the moves, I can appreciate that Breslow aggressively tried to improve the team in a year where the AL is weak, rather than trying to “win” every trade, which I think has been a problem for him (and Bloom before him) in the past

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t like the Early/Mead trade much even before the latter got injured (which is just dumb luck) but I am absolutely gobsmacked that they were able to get Adley Rutschman from within the division. I think getting something for Mayer was good too

Phil: I know it kinda got lost amid other events, but boy, Rafaela had himself a weekend, didn’t he?

Jay Jaffe: four homers against the Dodgers, including two off Yamamoto, was very impressive. Of course the other two guys he hit them off, Irvin and Sheehan, are already not there anymore.

Ryan Carra: What players were you most surprised to see not move? What holes are most surprising that went unfilled? (Yankee catcher?)

Jay Jaffe: I am surprised the Yankees didn’t get something to help out behind the plate, but once the Twins decided to approach the deadline as buyers, that pretty much took Jeffers off the table. Joey Bart, who went from the Braves to the White Sox, would have been a good addition.

Jay Jaffe: As far as bigger-picture not moving, hmm. I guess I’m surprised the Angels didn’t also trade Reid Detmers if they were trading Jose Soriano. Nolan Gorman seems like a guy who needs a change of scenery and I’m surprised somebody didn’t take the gamble there. Kenley Jansen ain’t what he used to be but he could help in a setup role. I’m sure there are many more

Phil: How do the story assignments work on a weekend like this? Is it just first dibs, or does Meg mostly just pick people?

Jay Jaffe: again, it’s kind of 50/50 — when there are more of them blockbuster types besides Skubal we do talk ahead of time about who’s standing by for those particular moves (in the winter we divvy up top free agents). But a lot of times it’s who’s got the phone in their hand and shouts ME ME ME when a trade comes across and sometimes it’s “Hey i know you’re buried in this but when you’re done can you write up this next one”

StuShea: How are you feeling about the Mets’ acquisition of Rojas? Thanks

Jay Jaffe: He seems like a good addition and perhaps a steal given what they traded, but this is still putting lipstick on a pig. A team with a payroll of $350 million as deadline sellers is a black eye for the organization.

fincampbell05: As a Red Sox fan, I am trying to balance my awareness that we gave up an absolute haul for Adley Rutschman with my awareness/strong belief that we will simply generate 1-3 new top-100 pitching prospects by this time next year. Is this sane? Am I coping too hard? Did we get fleeced?

Jay Jaffe: With a tip of the ol’ TINSTAAPP cap, that’s the thing about teams that are good at churning out pitching prospects, they can use them as currency at the trade deadline. It’s some thing the Red Sox do well, perhaps not equally well every year but it’s a core strength of theres, and there are a lot easier to produce than switch-hitting All-Star catchers

Eric Martell: A starting pitcher trade (even for someone as good as Skubal) is only going to move the needle on the regular season so much, especially for a team like the Dodgers, right? In ~50 games, he might get 10 starts. They’d likely go 5-5 or 6-4 in those 10 starts with even an okay starter, and it’s unlikely that they’ll go 9-1 or something with him. It’s all about the postseason with the teams most likely to go, right? Given that, which team(s) helped themselves the most with their chances to win playoff series in the last couple of days?

Jay Jaffe: A lot of it is about the postseason but look at how many question marks the Dodgers have right now: Will Snell and Glasnow stay healthy? When are we going to see Ohtani pitch again? Is Wrobleski out of gas yet, or will he be soon? (one of those seems to be yes). Skubal isn’t going to be the difference between making the playoffs and not, but he could help them get the top seed, and then yes, he’ll be a particularly prominent pitcher in the postseason.

Beyond them, I like the Cubs’ additions of Gausman and Holmes a lot in terms of how banged up that group is, and the Padres’ addition of Mize and Ray, in the latter case because everybody on the bubble there has been sooo bad.

greenejoshua: It feels like the Sox overpaid for Adley, but I also find it hard to believe they didn’t offer that package or something similar for Goodman (who I think would have been better FWIW). If this just was the cost of doing business to make that big of an upgrade behind the plate/in the lineup, kind of hard to fault Breslow?

Jay Jaffe: The Andrew Friedman line about if you approach every deal rationally you’ll finish third applies here. Not every prospect traded pans out, but the sign of a fair deal for premium talent is that it should make you wince a bit. You’re balancing present opportunity with future needs, and the Red Sox have done so much over the past month with a flawed roster that they deserved that kind of shot at an upgrade.

reallyfreshblueberry: how much more work are yall doing during these crazy periods?

Jay Jaffe: There was a point yesterday while writing up May that I couldn’t type a complete sentence without making like 3 typos. My hands felt like flippers

Jay Jaffe: it’s the busiest time of year and in some cases the most fun, particularly when you see the way OUR team works together. Here’s the stuff on prospects, here are the projections (if needed), here’s the Killers list showing how badly this team needed a left fielder, here’s a link to what Clemens or Baumann or whoever wrote about this guy’s addition of a new pitch…

Angelsjunky: Is it just me or are prospect packages overall a bit down this year? Possibly due to (possible) impending lock-out, or just higher valuation of prospects?

Jay Jaffe: I’m going to leave that assessment to Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski. But I do think that with few true studs changing teams, yeah, there were fewer blue chip prospects traded than usual.

Eshan Mehere: how screwed is the yankees bullpen? Is there any type of rationale for not even adding a Brent Suter type (just thinking of cheap rental that moved)?

Jay Jaffe: I like what Cashman did in getting Garcia and Ramos given the state of the lineup, and i know plenty of Yankees fans are glad to see Doval and Bird go, but I agree that they needed to bring in a late-inning arm or two; bringing back Luke Weaver would have been great. I do think it’s worth noting that the Yankees have done well in getting so much out of guys like Blackburn and Headrick, and that Chivilli shows promise. That’s an area of strength for the Yankees, taking guys who have knocked around elsewhere, teaching them one weird grip trick or two, and turning them into good relievers (the Weaver plan) or even starters (Nestor Cortes)

bookbook: The Mariners were kind of noncommittal this year. Surprised?

Jay Jaffe: I like the addition of Ward, but though they might be getting too fancy by trying to deal Kirby or Hancock, and I can only presume they were asking too much for this time of year. I think they’re betting a lot on the return of Brendan Donovan.

But let’s face it, if guys like Raleigh and Naylor aren’t playing up to their potential, the Mariners have problems a trade deadline won’t fix.

Neil Peart: You just wrote (“a lot of these deals, for as much as we hype them, don’t end up moving the needle much”) what I think every single deadline. I know it makes for great fun to talk about, but aside from some of the big hit/miss outliers, it feels like deadline deals in early August just don’t make as much of a difference as many fans think they do. You agree?

Jay Jaffe: A lot of them don’t amount to much, maybe an additional 0.5 or 1.0 WAR than what a team might have gotten from exisiting options. Over two months, variance in player performance can trump whatever blueprint you create — random guys go on heaters, or guys play through pain, stink, and then admit they’re injured. But every year, a few things click in a few places and that’s really what everybody is shooting for.

Bud Smith: Who came up with all the trade deadline headlines?

Jay Jaffe: Most often, individual writers come up with their own, some more idiosyncratic or witty than others (Baumann and Davy Andrews might have the best). If they’re too esoteric or unclear, an editor will suggest changes, but sometimes they really amuse us to the point that they have to stay intact.

I think all of mine that I linked above, none of them tremendously witty, went through intact.

ap9: In your opinion, with the understanding that Arraez playing second base as a given, what scenario would be more detrimental to the Phillies’ defense? Scenario A (which is what is happening) – Stott to 3B, Bohm to 1B, Harper to RF, and Arraez at 2B. or Scenario B – Arraez at 2B, Stott to SS, and Turner to OF (I’d assume he’d be in LF which would push Marsh to RF).

Jay Jaffe: As I said on the Bloosk yesterday, I don’t see any case to keep Bohm and his 76 wRC+ and shaky glove in the lineup. Maybe he’s a better 1B than 3B, but the bar for offense is higher. I don’t expect Harper to work out well in RF. At the same time, I don’t think you can make Turner move mid-season on the fly, even if the metrics say he’s been terrible at SS.

I almost think they’d be better off putting Arraez back at 1B even if it’s against his will but i’d choose Scenario C, make different trades

Jay Jaffe: Easier said than done, I know. But I just don’t think they came up with the right answers

Jeremy Fox: Are the Pirates going to regret these trades to chase fairly low playoff odds. The last time they were buyers at the deadline despite fairly low playoff odds, it worked out badly. Or is the that the wrong way to look at it? Is the bigger picture here that the Pirates decided to go for it before the season (for Pirates values of “go for it”), and they felt like they’d lose whatever goodwill (and associated future ticket sales) they’ve built with the fanbase if they didn’t keep going for it at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: This is the best Pirates team in years. Their last .500 team was in 2018, and before that 2015. Yeah, you wish they had more than a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs with two months to go but I think you have to do things to improve your chances. Maybe more than the Pirates did — I do like the bullpen upgrade, but they needed at least one bat, too. If I’m a GM, I chase those 1-in-4 odds to show the fans we care.

Jeremy Fox: I feel bad for Orioles fans. They were *terrible* for *years*, got one or two season’s worth of fun and hope (depending on how you feel about 2024), and then had to watch two seasons of disappointing mediocrity and are officially retooling.

Jay Jaffe: I feel bad for them too. The new owner made so much noise about spending and keeping the young blue-chip guys around, but pretty quickly he’s singing the song about a salary cap and skimping on starting pitching and ayiyiyi. I don’t think much of Mike Elias as a GM, either, if he can’t get ownership to make bigger commitments than just a Pete Alonso FA deal.

Jeremy Fox: What are the Blue Jays doing? What’s the plan?

Jay Jaffe: More of a retooling than a rebuild. I am surprised George Springer didn’t move — that’s one answer for the question I was asked pretty early in this chat — but they went out and replaced Gausman, a pending free agent, with Soriano, who has two more years of control, and turned another pending free agent (Varsho) into a starter with three years of control (Arighetti). That gives them a good base of a rotation to work with. Didn’t love the prospects they got back for Gausman, but as Brendan said about one of them (Bateman), the Blue Jays are one of the best organizations at building strength so they may be able to get more out of him than another team.

Mr. Redlegs: Sad Reds noises. Can’t believe we kept all but 2 of the expiring players and there’s talk of a QO for Singer. Just sucks to have such an uncommitted and unimaginative front office/ownership

Jay Jaffe: Stephenson-to-the-Yankees seemed sensible but who knows what the asking price was, and I’d have tried to flip Bleday.

big trails: The new Rockies FO seemed to be making a lot of strides. Looking for value reclamation projects, willing to make trades, had what appears to be a decent draft, there was some noise from the FO about taking on money in trades to sweeten the pot. But the trade deadline came and went and it felt underwhelming. They made trades, which is an improvement on the previous FO, but they didn’t sell high on McCarthy, Moniak or Bernardino. And now they announced they are working on a short extension with Moniak (albeit short and cheap). None of these players were going to bring back franchise altering prospects, but it looks like the prior Rockies MO of overvaluing their own players and not getting value when they could. Or am I being too jaded over a meh deadline?

Jay Jaffe: the fact that they’re even coming up with guys like Moniak and McCarthy is a plus, and they got something for Doyle, who wasn’t helping them at all. I think they’re taking baby steps in the right direction

Jay Jaffe: I also think Moniak and McCarthy are particularly good fits for their park/situation so it’s a bit understandable if they were asking too much

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, there are still so many good questions in the queue — some of them better suited to our prospect team or Dan — but I’ve gotta run. I think this is a record, not a single Hall of Fame question, but ’tis the season to talk deadline postmortems. Thanks so much for stopping by!