Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/8/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first post-trade deadline edition of my Tuesday chats. I just published a piece on the Padres’ loss of Joe Musgrove and their missed opportunities during their series with the Dodgers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-lose-musgrove-and-let-slip-a-golden…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I published a piece on the Diamondbacks’ 7-22 slide (!) out of the playoff picture https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-diamondbacks-have-wilted-in-the-heat-o…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show…

Phil: Can you explain this Orioles broadcaster controversy? Don’t they have a PR person to tell them they’re going to be hammered over this? And an HR person to observe that Brown was just literally doing his job? They used to be bad and now they’re good–it’s not like that’s some sort of company secret. I’m not just grumbling (though I am)–I really don’t understand what they expected to happen.

Jay Jaffe: The Orioles have an idiot man-baby for an owner. Brown was reading a stat from the notes that the team prepared for that day’s broadcast – they didn’t need vetting from a PR person because no sane person would have thought such a tidbit about the team’s improvement would have inflamed even the most idiotic man-baby.

Jay Jaffe: Sadly, this is par for the course during the John Angelos era,. Check Britt Ghiroli’s piece at The Athletic for more https://theathletic.com/4757354/2023/08/07/ghiroli-orioles-announcer-k…

Tim: Thoughts on Jake Bauers? I’m in a 14t H2H dynasty and picked him up to replace some power lost with the Jung injury. There isn’t much else that isn’t a platoon bat on the wire. Would a spec pickup on Everson Pereira be a better gamble?

Jay Jaffe: I can’t speak to the specifics of your league but Bauers has made some adjustments and is absolutely punishing the ball on contact, with a 20.9% barrel rate and 50.4% hard-hit rate, not to mention a 114 wRC+. Yes, he’s striking out a lot, but with Rizzo out, and with left field a void as well, he’s likely to get at least a long-half platoon share of playing time going forward. I wouldn’t expect a rookie to come up and do what he’s doing, particularly while noting that Pereira’s AA/AAA strikeout rates are almost as high as Bauers’ MLB rate.

Phil: Starting to see HOF buzz about Utley. Is it petty of me, as a Red Sox fan, to find that kind of annoying? Pedroia was clearly the better player–Utley’s only advantage was not getting spiked in the knee by Manny Machado and thus having a normal decline phase. . . I recognize I should be a more magnanimous person.

Jay Jaffe: I understand why you might be bummed about Pedroia not getting a clear shot at the Hall, but he was not *clearly* the better player. The bWAR components show that Utley was a better hitter over the course of the two careers, and much better in terms of fielding and baserunning.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: It’s a bummer that Pedroia’s career ended the way that it did. It’s also a bummer that the Phillies didn’t know what they had in Utley and didn’t play him regularly until he was 25. In an ideal world both would have gotten 10,000 PA and would be in Cooperstown in short order but alas, that’s not the way it worked out

AdGraphs: Rather than beg for money with intrusive popup ads on every page, why not just increase the frequency/quality of the articles that you publish?

Jay Jaffe: Rather than complain about intrusive pop-up ads, which don’t actually yield much revenue, why not pay for an ad-free membership which greatly improves the user experience AND allows us to pay for the writers, editors and other personnel who make this site great?

Jay Jaffe: https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/

Johnnygentle45: Rank these Dodger prospects: Sheehan, Pepiot, Frasso, Ryan, Knack

Jay Jaffe: you’re not going to get a more enlightened answer out of me than you are from Eric Longenhagen’s list, which has Pepiot 9th, Frasso 16th, Sheehan 17th, and so on https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-51-prospects-2023/

Guest: how important is ROY in HOF voting? like, did someone like Josh Jung go from 1/85 to 1/90 chances (or whatever) with his injury?

Jay Jaffe: It’s not very important, certainly nowhere near that of an MVP or Cy Young award. Jung’s odds are hurt more by missing six weeks than by missing out on the award.

I’m writing about his injury and the Rangers for tomorrow.

Steve: Jay,
Felix Bautista has been outstanding this season (Bref WAR = 3.2, ERA = 0.85, Saves = 30, IP = 52.2, SO = 102, WHIP = 0.854). Baltimore is 70 wins and 42 losses with a PWE of 63 W and 49 L. If things continue like this is Bautista a viable candidate for the cy young award, especially if the Os win the division? I think a reliever has not won it since 2003 (Eric Gagne). Normally, I am not a fan of a reliever winning that award because of the relatively small number of innings pitched, but with starters pitching fewer and fewer innings, why not?
Thanks,
Steve

Jay Jaffe: A reliever might have a chance to win a Cy Young if there’s no strong case to be made from among the starters, but that’s not the situation this year. Gerrit Cole leads the AL in bWAR and is second in ERA, while Kevin Gausman leads in fWAR and FIP — and both will wind up considerably more valuable than Bautista

Alex J: Of the first year candidates on the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot, who do you think will be voted into the HoF in the first round? Also, do you think Joe Mauer will be voted into the HoF, and if so, what round is most likely?

Jay Jaffe: Adrian Beltré, with over 3,000 hits and over 400 homers, is a lock to get elected this winter, on the 2024 ballot. In my five-year outlook, I projected Mauer would be elected on the 2025 ballot, in part because it’s crowded one as far as holdovers, with Helton and Wagner within striking distance and Sheffield in his final year of eligibility. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-comebacks-and-easy-calls-the-next-five…

emh1969: Have we over corrected in terms of how starting pitchers are treated? It was only 13 years ago that a 22 year old Clayton Kershaw threw over 200 innings and no one batted an eye. Nowadays, that would probably lead to multiple people getting fired.

Jay Jaffe: We haven’t seen a pitcher 23 or younger throw 200 innings in a season since 2014, but I’m not sure that it’s evidence that the industry overcorrected. Consider this list

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Note that of this group, Kershaw is the last one who was still pitching well in his mid-30s. The rest besides Sabathia and Buehrle were either already in the glue factory or barely hanging on.

And even this analysis ignores how much harder pitchers of more recent vintage are throwing, which creates additional risk of arm injuries.

John B: Interested to hear your thoughts on how many future HOFrs does a team need to have on its roster to have a legit shot at the World Series.

Jay Jaffe: It’s good to have great players, they increase your chances of winning, but there’s no meaningful relationship between a simple tally of future Hall of Famers and World Series chances

Marz, The World: Do you not do replacement level killers for pitching?

Jay Jaffe: No, because i’d just be writing about 20 fifth-starter situations and good Lord, nobody needs that

Dertom: Is Trey Mancini cooked?

Jay Jaffe: Sadly that may be the case. That or he is in need of a significant overhaul of his swing in order to get him hitting the ball hard again and making more consistent contact. Which shouldn’t be ruled out if he”s physically and mentally up to the task, but it’s going to take some work.

Insert Witty Name Here: I know Hamels won’t make the HOF, but what are his comparisons to someone I thought he was very similar to in Johan Santana?

Jay Jaffe: Santana was the more dominant of the two, albeit in a shorter career. Better ERA+ by a wide margin (136 to 123), slightly higher strikeout rate. Very similar S-JAWS with very different shapes. Santana had a much higher peak (51.7/45.0/48.3), Hamels the higher career value (59.0/37.4/48.2) via the additional 673 innings. Both kept trying to come back such that the time between their final release/retirement and appearance on the ballot was shorter than usual. 2015/2018 for Santana, whose last MLB season was 2012; 2023/2026 for Hamels, whose last MLB season was 2020 (and just one game at that).

Jay Jaffe: I’d consider voting for both, as neither would be that out of place in the Hall. Hamels should have gotten to 200 wins but for poor offensive support

Outmaniac: America’s not ready to acknowledge that James Outman has a higher OPS than Elly De La Cruz

Jay Jaffe: That’s because America hasn’t been paying attention. Outman has been walking almost twice as often as ELDC and has a 47-point advantage in OBP. But there’s a big difference in terms of what Outman is doing as an age-26-season rookie and ELDC at age-21. The latter is the one to bet on for the long term.

A Boy Named Yu: Rizzo has been ok since he left, but Baez and Bryant have been disasters.  Who would have thought the Cubs made the right decision by not re-signing those guys?

Jay Jaffe: I would say Rizzo has been “just ok” too, even if you write off what we know about his current concussion-related situation. Those Cubs did their job by ending the 108-year streak, but they didn’t wind up having much staying power. Right now i think the best active player from that team is… Jason Heyward.

Outmaniac: That’s a lazy answer to the prospect question Jay. Sheehan has clearly surpassed Pepiot.

Jay Jaffe: Excuse me? Pepiot hasn’t pitched in the majors this year but put up a 3.41 ERA (and 5.42 FIP) last year. Sheehan has a 5.63 ERA/5.15 FIP this year in about the same number of innings, with much worse strikeout and walk numbers. He’s been available, and he’s maybe arrived ahead of schedule, but both are visually 45 FV types who have work to do to survive in a major league rotation.

v2micca: Thanks for the reminder about the ad-free membership.  I have one, but I recently had to get my card re-issued and hadn’t remembered to update my auto-membership renewal with the new payment information.  And screw those who complain about you wanting to be paid for your work.

Jay Jaffe: Thank you for your support!

A Boy Named Yu: Ohtani’s team next year – you taking the Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs or the rest of the league?

Jay Jaffe: I would put the Dodgers and Giants 1 & 2 on my scorecard. I don’t see the Yankees being able to convince him to come East particularly given the state of their roster and Steinbrenner’s skittishness about paying, and I don’t see the Mets as likely to convince him if they’re sticking to their plan to retool

Dk: Yanks are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot and haven’t won three in a row since sweeping the woeful Royals in May. Is there any hope of a turnaround?

Jay Jaffe: The returns of Judge and Cortes are big positives that trump any deadline addition they could have made (except for the fantasy that they could trade for Ohtani). But I just think they have too many holes to fight through the traffic and reach a playoff spot

Jay Jaffe: https://twitter.com/CharlieRGa/status/1688777765833547776

A Boy Named Yu: How many monitors do you use when working?  I have two at work but was forced to use only one the other day and it was maddening.

Jay Jaffe: I have one, a 27″ monitor. Also have an adjacent TV for ballgames, and an iPhone that sometimes gets used to as a second monitor for social media or text/DMs so I don’t have to keep switching windows.

Guest: I think Ha-Seong Kim has to be the Padres MVP (on a roster with Soto, Machado, Tatis and X).  Can you recall a more unlikely team MVP?  I don’t know what to compare this to.

Jay Jaffe: Kim has been something else! Outstanding defense and exceptional development as a hitter, at a time when practically everything else is falling apart around him. I can’t say I have a working mental file of “preseason likelihood of winning team MVP for a sub-.500 club” to compare him to, though. I’m just glad it’s working out for him because it bodes well for other KBO stars to come over

A Boy Named Yu: Had you included them earlier in the series, what positions would the Cubs have had replacement killers?

Jay Jaffe: I think first base was the only one where they truly measured… down… to the standards for the RLKs. I made passing mention but didn’t have the bandwidth to write a whole thing on them

Trader Jerry: What did you think of the Mariners trade of Seawald for what looks like 3 scrap pieces? Seems like getting one 50FV high minors or current young MLB player would of been better than throwing a bunch of 40FV guys at the wall and hoping on hits don’t you think? Other teams seemed to do better with BP trades that only had a half season left of control over the 1.5 Paul had.

Jay Jaffe: I covered the Sewald deal for us https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-deal-sewald-pollock-in-pair-of-tr…

Jay Jaffe: Definitely the case of receiving quantity over quality but I don’t know that there was a 50 FV prospect to be had for Sewald. Graveman, also with one year of control remaining, was the only reliever who netted a 50 FV prospect — and the Astros were a more motivated buyer.

J: With players like Miguel Cabrera and Greinke, sometimes having more future hall of famers is a straight up detriment to your WS chances too.

Jay Jaffe: Right. Just because we’re counting future HOFers doesn’t mean we’re counting future HOFers in their primes.

Josh H: How annoyed should Twins fans be that mgmt stood pat at the trade deadline despite some rather obvious needs: relief arm(s) and, with apologies to J Luplow, a right handed OF that can hit LHP?

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s good reason to be annoyed that a roster with so many holes went unfixed. They especially needed help in the outfield, with all three spots making my Replacement Level Killers list

Cito’s Mustache: Hey Jay, thanks for doing this.  Big fan of your hof work.  What is up with Giolito?  Is he washed?  This year he maybe showed signs of life but is falling off a cliff again

Jay Jaffe: Giolito’s fastball velocity and shape have taken a significant step back. By Stuff+, he was at 109 in 2020 and 108 in ’21 but has been at 85 and 83 in the past two seasons, respectively. His curveball is off as well.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the changes are irreversible but he needs an overhaul.

Bob: What percentage of decline is attributed in preseason projections for players in the minor leagues?  For example, is Karen Paris 23 projection 60% of what he did at A+ and small sample of AA during the 22 season?  I ask because the projections are all over the place for minor league players.

Jay Jaffe: You’d have to ask Dan

Marcus: It was said the Carlos Rodon contract (6 year / 162M) was the floor for an Aaron Nola extension during spring training. If Nola’s season ends with a similar performance to what we’ve seen to date, how much money is it going to cost him? 5 years / 120M seems closer to reality now, but after last off season, maybe some recalibration is in order?

Jay Jaffe: Based on his current performance I’m not sure I see him getting more than four years, though I say that without having really peaked under the hood in search of something that can be fixed.

Casey: How do you see David Wright’s candidacy playing out?  One and done?  Consistent totals on the 5-10% bubble?  Slow climb to a McGriff-like peak?

Jay Jaffe: a couple of years with token support and then falling off. He just doesn’t have any real case other than What If.

Jay Jaffe: From my five-year writeup:

With seven All-Star appearances and 50.1 WAR through his age-31 season (2014) — 11th among third basemen — Wright was on a path that conceivably could have carried him to Cooperstown, but spinal stenosis and other injuries derailed him and finally forced him into retirement in 2018. His 39.5 WAR peak score is short of the Hall standard (43.0), and his 1,777 hits leave him well short of 2,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sticks around a less crowded ballot than more recent short-career candidates such as Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, and Lance Berkman faced, but I wouldn’t expect him to reach critical mass.

v2micca: “Steinbrenner’s skittishness about paying.”  My god, we’ve crossed into the mirror universe, haven’t we?

Jay Jaffe: We’re in the Upside Down

Bob: Priester has looked atrocious since being called up..is this another pirate prospect miss?

Jay Jaffe: Do you always write off prospects based on less than 20 innings of big league work?

Colton: I have a couple friends that just re-opened the Dave Stieb HOF conversation. Are you pro-HOF for him or anti-HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’m for him, while acknowledging that his case stands out particularly due to the dearth of pitchers from the era who have been elected rather than as some electoral injustice; we should want more pitchers from the Stieb/Hershiser/Saberhagen group to get in. Wrote about him at length here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-born-in-the-fifties/

Guest: Do you think Betts will end up considered better than Trout overall, when it comes down to it? considering how Betts has played in recent years and how little Trout has, there’s a world in which the WAR gap is small and Betts also has all those postseasons under his belt

Jay Jaffe: Not really. Trout has about a 25-bWAR lead on Betts and was very clearly the best player in the sport for nearly a decade before the injuries really started putting a dent into his playing time and value. Betts has been great and may have more value going forward because he’s been able to stay on the field but he has only intermittently risen to the level that Trout spent so long occupying.

Kevin: Which of these is closer to the truth: Russell Martin’s 55 fWAR reflects that he had a Hall of Fame-type career, or Russell Martin’s 55 fWAR reflects that fWAR’s formula for assessing catcher value is flawed?

Jay Jaffe: The former. fWAR reflects the value of pitch framing, which was something we didn’t have the means to measure before, but having discovered the meaningful differences between catchers and how they had an impact on value, we can’t just ignore them.

Datt Mamon: Vague reports that the Cubs could be “in play” for Ohtani, but I don’t see it. Assume you don’t, either?

Jay Jaffe: Skeptical that they’re willing to spend that kind of money

Rick: Now that Baty has been down, has his long-term outlook changed in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say there’s cause for concern but the reason you send him down is because you believe his issues are fixable. It wasn’t long ago he was having a serviceable rookie season, but he’s spiraling at a time that it’s become clear the Mets are playing meaningless games and full of bad vibes. Worth giving him a reset

DetroitBeisbolKats: Woops! Hit enter by mistake.  When do you think Detroit can compete again? 2028? The front office taking Clark seemed to suggest it would be a while. Tork, Manning, Meadows, Rogers, Baddoo, and Mize havent really inspired.  Ironically Skubal, the least harolded seems the best of the bunch. Thought on this poor team?

Jay Jaffe: I honestly don’t know. Feels like they need a full regime change in order to win because that’s a whole lot of talent that’s just not panning out

Scully, Carey, & Uecker: Dodgers AAA catcher is a one of the best fastball hitters in all of baseball. Even last year he had a 85.8% Contact, 66.0% ZSwing, 13.8% Chase, .497 xwOBAcon against fastballs, he’s always killed righties except for 2021 where he had extreme reverse splits. He handled the staff well in ST during the WBC, known for his glove. Why aren’t the Dodgers carrying 3 catchers?

Jay Jaffe: there’s no reason to carry three catchers right now if you don’t have playing time for one of them and don’t want to cut into the playing time of your All-Star. As it is, I’m really not sure what the Dodgers do with Cartaya because Smith is such a stud. With Rushing behind him in the minors, it might make sense to deal Cartaya for something important.

Dave: Would you pay Cody Bellinger based on his last three years in LA or his year in Chicago?  He looks like the MVP version of himself right now.

Jay Jaffe: He’s playing very well and has played himself back to the point where I think a nine-figure deal is possible but if you were going to write out such a deal for him based on his ages-21-23 seasons it would start with a 2 not a 1, and that ain’t happening.

Nick: The Yanks not selling at the deadline is because Hal, like the Roy children, lives in the shadow of his dad and knows George would never sell at the deadline. Except is that true? Did George ever sell at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t had time for a full review but the 1989 Yankees (the year before George was suspended) traded away Rickey Henderson in June and Mike Pagliarulo (and more minor bits) in July, and finished 74-88. I’d have to call that a sell-off

Jay Jaffe: OK folks it’s time for me to wrap it up. Thanks so much for stopping by today!

Jay Jaffe: No chat from me next week as I’lll be on vacation San Diego. If you spot someone that looks like me at Petco Park, it just might be me.