Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/22/26
| 12:01 |
 Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!
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| 12:01 |
Jay Jaffe: Welcome to my final chat of the regular season.
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| 12:02 |
Jay Jaffe: The playoff picture is still unsettled. Yesterday I dove into the remaining possibility of tiebreaker scenarios https://blogs.fangraphs.com/untying-the-tiebreaker-scenarios-one-more-…
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| 12:02 |
Jay Jaffe: Alas, we won’t get tiebreaker games because of the Fun Police at MLB headquarters
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| 12:03 |
Jay Jaffe: On Friday I checked in on Elly De La Cruz’s big season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-hot-elly-de-la-cruz/, and earlier last week I wrote about Pete Alonso’s return to Citi Field https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pete-alonsos-return-to-citi-field-turns-me…
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| 12:05 |
Jay Jaffe: I’m working on something on the weakest spots on the remaining contenders. Aaron Judge was already in my lede due to the uncertainty regarding his calf strain, and now we’ve learned that he received a PPP injection https://bsky.app/profile/chelseajanes.bsky.social/post/3mw4kutow4s2a
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| 12:07 |
Jay Jaffe: The other night, my wife and I were watching the season 3 premiere of Shoresy, a hilarious show about Canadian senior hockey, and learned the term “four to six” as in being injured enough to be out four to six weeks. I’m spitballing as to the actual timeline but from the way the Yankees handled this from the outset, Judge was at least a soft four to six.
https://www.tiktok.com/@upnorth905/video/7373134598403919109?_d=secCgY… |
| 12:07 |
Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the show
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| 12:07 |
: There is a chance, and at this time a very large chance, that the Red Sox-Cubs series in Boston will have serious weather problems as a strong northeaster will linger near the coast for the entire weekend. What is the scenario if the Cubs do not play some or all of these games?
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| 12:09 |
Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen the weather report but we’ve seen in the past from extreme situations like hurricanes that MLB is willing to move playoff-relevant games to a neutral site in the case of weather issues. Moving to Chicago but having the Cubs play as the visitor might be another alternative.
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| 12:09 |
: Both Schwarber and C. Montgomery are (just barely) on pace to break the single season record for striking out. Do you think either of them get there?
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| 12:12 |
Jay Jaffe: Mark Reynolds holds the record, with 223 strikeouts in 2009. Both Schwarber and Montgomery are at 216 with six games to play, and with their respective teams battling for playoff berths or at least seeding, there’s no good reason to rest them for the sake of avoiding the record. Our Depth Charts projections forecast both to rack up another eight strikeouts, so don’t be surprised if the record falls.
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| 12:13 |
: Assuming the Dodgers go with 13 position players on the playoff roster, that only leaves 4 bench spots. I think we can safely assume that 3 of those spots will go to Rojas, Keekay and Feduccia. That leaves one spot open for Call, Freeland, Kim or De Paula. The Dodgers would be crazy not to give JDP that last spot, right?
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| 12:19 |
Jay Jaffe: superficially it makes a bit of sense but if Teoscar (who’s swinging the bat extremely well) and Shohei (who’s said to be close to activation and remains Shohei Ohtani) are available then that reduces JDP to a bench player. He’s a lousy defender and has below-average speed, which basically confines him to pinch-hitting, and the only players whom he’s likely to bat for are Kiké and Rojas if they’re playing second base. Call has speed to go with his defensive ability and strength against lefties, and Kiké’s versatility and October credentials are well established. It’s going to be a tough call but I think the rookie gets left off
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| 12:20 |
: If the Rays or Yankees don’t make the Series this year, we’re gonna be in for a lame series, tell me I’m wrong
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| 12:20 |
: Correction: in addition to the Rays and Yankees, the Red Sox would be an interesting WS team as well
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| 12:22 |
Jay Jaffe: I think any one of those three AL East teams would be the most competitive from among the potential field, but we’ve seen teams like the 2023 Diamondbacks get hot at the right time despite failing to clear .500 by a substantial margin. Some portion of the audience is always going to get attached to that kind of Cinderella story
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| 12:22 |
: how’d you rank Field of Dreams, Bull Durham, and League of Their Own amongst themselves?
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| 12:24 |
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think Field of Dreams belongs in the same sentence as the other two. Those are great — among the best baseball movies ever made — but FoD stinks on ice for reasons that I and others have elaborated elsewhere.
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| 12:24 |
Jay Jaffe: the original Bad News Bears is the greatest baseball movie, of course.
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| 12:25 |
: Hey Jay, how does your view of someone like Tatis Jr change based on the PED suspension? On one hand, he hasn’t recaptured the power that made him the next A-Rod. On the other, he’s still an all-star caliber player who messed up EARLY in his career. Is he someone whose HOF case could meaningfully benefit from a redemption narrative?
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| 12:29 |
Jay Jaffe: it’s possible, though the motorcycle-induced injury that preceded his suspension compounds his mistake, especially as it cost the team an even better shot at the World Series than it had after acquiring Juan Soto. Until anybody with a PED violation is elected to the Hall, this is all spitballing; i think it will take at least a decade of exemplary behavior to give Tatis a shot assuming his stats merit it, and even then, I’m skeptical he’ll be the guy for whom the longstanding precedent is broken.
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| 12:29 |
: Your Team Entropy story made me think of the last day of the season in 2011, and how much fun that was. Sometimes it feels like MLB doesn’t even know what makes for a compelling product.
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| 12:30 |
Jay Jaffe: The late-September drama that led up to that was the genesis of Team Entropy in the first place. MLB took a page from that by creating the one-game Wild Card playoffs — my favorite postseason format they’ve come up with — but ditched that with the 2022 CBA because money.
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| 12:31 |
Jay Jaffe: BRB, gotta flip the vinyl on my remastered reissue of Funkadelic’s Maggot Brain, which arrived via mail this morning. I’m positively giddy. Please enjoy the interlude
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| 12:32 |
: Where would you rank Gabriel Moreno among catchers in today’s game?
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| 12:35 |
Jay Jaffe: His 5.0 WAR is a career high and second among all catchers behind Dillin Dingler’s 5.2, with strong offense (138 wRC+ and defense (including 8 FRV) so I’d say he’s among the best in the game. And he’s only 26, so particularly with JT Realmuto’s decline and Will Smith’s injuries, i think he has a very good chance of remaining on the top tier for awhile… if he can stay healthy. Which is a load-bearing IF for any catcher.
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| 12:35 |
: Who should the ire of Mariners fans be directed towards?
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| 12:37 |
Jay Jaffe: I don’t know where to start but Dan Wilson and Jerry Dipoto are both in there. I can’t believe Wilson has lasted this long amid this season’s underperformance, and while I think Dipoto made some moves that looked like they should have paid off, there have been times in recent years that he didn’t do enough. Some of that has to reflect ownership’s limitations on his spending.
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| 12:39 |
Jay Jaffe: The players aren’t blameless, either. Julio Rodríguez is in the midst of a career-worst year, Cal Raleigh turned into a pumpkin, as did Josh Naylor. Mitch Garver and Rob Refsnyder were virtually unplayable… the list goes on.
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| 12:40 |
: Do you expect Torey Lovullo to be retained?
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| 12:40 |
Jay Jaffe: I think both he and Mike Hazen will be retained, mainly because I haven’t heard any bluster from Ken Kendrick, the Desert Steinbrenner.
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| 12:41 |
: What do you make of Tyler Mahle? Seems Braves should attempt to extend/res-sign him, what would that look like?
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| 12:45 |
Jay Jaffe: When he’s healthy — which isn’t tremendously often, as he’s made more than 25 starts just once before this season (he’s at 26) — he’s a solid 4th starter. He’s been great since coming to the Braves, but he wasn’t good with the Giants earlier in the year. I don’t think a team has to get terribly attached to a specific no. 4 guy in free agency. I suspect he’ll end up with something like the 2/$22 million deal he worked under for 2024-25.
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| 12:45 |
: On paper, Atlanta’s been one of the better teams in the league this year. But as they head into the playoffs, it’s hard to think too optimistically about their chances – the pitching staff is Chris Sale and pray for rain, and the offense consists of a lot of veterans having down years (Albies, Riley, Kim, Murphy, Acuña). Maybe Mahle is an okay playoff starter, and maybe some of the vets turn it around against the October gas, but how do you handicap the squad?
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| 12:49 |
Jay Jaffe: The reality is that most of the Braves’ competition has issues as well. For the Dodgers, Ohtani is dealing with injuries, Freeman’s knee is an issue, and who knows how quickly Pages will recover his pre-injury form. The Phillies don’t look as strong as they did entering the postseason last year, and — I’ll say it — their manager isn’t as good either. We’re all wondering whether this is the Brewers’ year, but really, it’s just a matter of which team gets hot, and it wouldn’t surprise me if, like, Austin Riley (to pull an example out of thin air rather than basing it on any underlying data) suddenly plays like an All-Star again for a month.
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| 12:49 |
: Are you anti-all Kinsella or just applying modern views to 1986 (lack of Negro league inclusion)? I would argue that some of the Thrill of the Grass and the Iowa Baseball Confederacy are quite good baseball lit.
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| 12:50 |
Jay Jaffe: I haven’t read any Kinsella so I’m only reacting to the movie, but you can shove that James Earl Jones speech up Kevin Costner’s ass for the way the movie fails to acknowledge segregation.
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| 12:51 |
: Do you think Jim, Jim or Jim has the best shot to make it into the Blueberry Bulldogs HOF? Jim especially shows a lot of tenacity with his physicality.
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| 12:51 |
Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I’d go with Jim over Jim and Jim, though sometimes it’s more clear than others
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| 12:54 |
: Gotta think DeGrom has to be in after his last two healthy seasons for TEX or it’s going to be looking quite grim indeed for pitchers in Cooperstown?
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| 12:54 |
: If Wheeler can keep this up for 2-3 more years, he’s got a HOF shot, right?
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| 12:55 |
Jay Jaffe: I did my annual roundup of candidates for Cooperstown less than a month ago, and both deGrom and Wheeler made the “helped themselves in 2026” list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-chris-sale-and-others…
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| 12:55 |
Jay Jaffe: That said, neither of them has done enough that I think they’d be elected today, and if Wheeler hangs ’em up after 2027 when his contract expires, I’m skeptical he’ll get in. Likewise, I think deGrom has to remain productive for at least another few years to have a real shot. For both, it’s going to take a sea change to get the kind of support they’ll need from voters who have previously been tied to the big milestone numbers.
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| 12:57 |
: Paul Skenes recently attributed much of his struggles this year to the WBC. 1. How much do you believe that vs deflecting blame and 2. A lot of WBC players have had subpar or straight up bad years. Is that a real effect or just usual fluctuations?
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| 12:59 |
Jay Jaffe: presumably, he’s still dealing with the embarrassment caused by that “almost served in the military” nonsense.
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| 1:01 |
Jay Jaffe: I think it’s the easiest cop out to blame the WBC. While we do remember the major injuries, historically plenty of guys have had no trouble after participating, so I don’t put much stock in his complaint. Nor do I have much sympathy, as Skenes and Team USA were particularly chest-thumpy, humorless, and disgustingly militaristic about representing this country. (see also Cal Raleigh).
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| 1:02 |
: Some chatter among Reds fans about who is more responsible for the morbid state of the franchise, the FO or ownership. Clearly plenty of blame to go around, but until the Castellinis et al sell the team, ownership will remain a problem. So, in what world could this ownership group possibly bring Nick Krall back? The track record is abysmal.
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| 1:03 |
Jay Jaffe: it all starts with ownership, because for however much you want to heap the blame on Krall for some of his choices not panning out, those choices can’t be separated from the limitations placed upon him. Just last year, he was getting plaudits for the Reds making the postseason for the first time (in a full season) since 2013. The problem is larger than him.
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| 1:03 |
: Is the Yankees’ pitching good enough to withstand no Judge?
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| 1:07 |
Jay Jaffe: Not unless Gerrit Cole rediscovers the feel for his curveball. In 2024, opponents slugged .239 against it, but this year they’re at .586, with the whiff rate dropping from 30.1% to 19.6%. Schlittler, Fried, and Rodón are good, and Will Warren OK; they need Cole to rise to the occasion, though I fear he may be gassed as he nears the end of his first season back from TJ
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| 1:08 |
: Rewatched Long Gone Summer with the kids a couple of weeks ago and still great to see you and Ben L. featured.
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| 1:08 |
Jay Jaffe: Aw, thanks for the kind words. Proud of my contributions both to that one and to the Pete Rose doc series.
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| 1:09 |
: Hi Jay, Thanks for all your input this year. Rumfield has done a solid job playing first base for Colorado, but do you think he can unlock a bit more power next year?
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| 1:11 |
Jay Jaffe: our prospect team put a 45 grade on Rumfield’s raw power, and he’s done just fine (124 wRC+) without hitting the ball very hard, which works in Colorado because of the massive outfield. You always want to look to improve and adjust but I’d resist the temptation to overhaul him in the hopes that he possibly conforms to a more traditional positional profile. Leave well enough alone unless he’s struggling.
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| 1:13 |
: The Dodgers playoff bullpen is about as settled as my stomach after a Duo Chicken Gordita Crunch meal from Taco Bell. With presumably 9 open spots, the only locks I can see are probably Scott, Vesia, Dreyer, (3 lefties) and Henriquez (if healthy). That means they have to pick 5 from the following: Diaz, Bubic, Phillips, Stewart, Sheehan, Sasaki, Treinen, Wrobleski. Who do you think makes the cut?
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| 1:16 |
Jay Jaffe: Sasaki will definitely be there, and maybe Sheehan as the long man. Bubic was acquired to be an October surprise. Wrobo has been terrible lately, I think he’s gassed and would leave him off. Díaz is going to have to be absolutely awesome to merit inclusion; I’m skeptical but I’m only going on his rehab results. I prefer Phillips to Stewart or Treinen at this stage but don’t know how they view them internally (well, they have lots of MRIs on all of ’em… )
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| 1:17 |
: re: deGrom and Wheeler. Do you ever look at era-adjusted JAWS to inform your opinion on HOF cases? Both are easy HOFers by that metric
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| 1:21 |
Jay Jaffe: I can look at it all I want, but the problem is that you’re still asking a body of ~400 voters to make a wholesale change in their personal standards and attitudes, and not all of those voters are known for their flexibility, ahem. many are going to view the Sabathia-Greinke-Kershaw-Verlander-Scherzer-Sale group getting in as ample representation compared to the paucity of starters getting in from 2016-24 (only Mussina and Halladay).
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| 1:22 |
: Castellinis…Where else ya gonna go? Anyone who spends their money on the team after hearing that line…fool me once…
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| 1:22 |
Jay Jaffe: Yeah, that was a death sentence for the current ownership — and he said that in 2022, one full CBA ago. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33727113/cincinnati-reds-president…
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| 1:23 |
: Can the Mets bounce back next year? I am very depressed.
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| 1:24 |
Jay Jaffe: A lot is going to depend on the extent to which Stearns (who isn’t going to be fired, sorry folks) can undo the mistake of the past offseason. Given the impending lockout, I think his task will be that much harder so… I’d brace myself for a lean year.
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| 1:24 |
: Apologies if you’ve addressed this before, but on average how many HOFers are active in a given year?
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| 1:27 |
Jay Jaffe: historically the average is roughly 1.5 per season per team, but that fluctuates widely from era to era and is based on a long period of access to secondary elections (Veterans or Era Committee).
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| 1:27 |
Jay Jaffe: 
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| 1:28 |
: If you had to be a voter for a non-baseball Hall of Fame, what would you want to vote on? Note that your answer does not need to be a real/currently in existence Hall of Fame
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| 1:29 |
Jay Jaffe: I joke about Astronaut JAWS (I’ve tried but never gotten anywhere) but I’ve been fascinated by the history of space travel and read a few books on the Apollo program, etc. A space travel HOF would be fun to be involved in.
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| 1:29 |
Jay Jaffe: OK folks, that’s it from me this week. No chat next week, as I’ll be covering the Yankees-Red Sox Wild Card Series from Yankee Stadium.
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| 1:29 |
Jay Jaffe: I believe we’ll be having our Wild Card group chat that day or the next. Thanks for stopping by!
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Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
It does amaze me to hear people go on and on about the value of the regular season and how important it is and how bad the current setup is and, then, in the next breath, bemoan the lack of single-game playoffs that turn the season into a coin flip.
Didn’t elaborate there but I think a coin-toss game — and the likelihood of using the team’s ace — is a reasonable penalty for not winning the division. The Wild Card teams should be at a substantial disadvantage compared to the division winners.