Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of the 2023 regular season. I’ve got a piece today on the Astros’ September struggles (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-one-night-at-least-justin-verlander-st…) and yesterday dared to question the rush to anoint Ronald Acuña Jr. MVP by writing about the role of versatility in Mookie Betts’ candidacy (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-betts-versatility-has-enriched-his-…). Anyway, let’s get to it…

Jason N: Snell about to get CY award #2, but I’ve never seen him in a HoF discussion.  His awards will be pretty far apart (about 5 years).  Is this unprecedented to have a player with some far apart peak years but very little in between?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s mostly pretty early to entertain a serious Hall of Fame discussion about any starter beyond the big four (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke) and Cole, and that goes for Snell, who hasn’t even reached 1,000 innings (he’s at 992.2. The shape of his career thus far is unusual in that his two Cy-Caliber seasons account for about 63% of his 21.1 career bWAR; his third-best season by that measure was last year, worth just 2.1 WAR. I’m not sure I can find a good parallel offhand, in that even two-time CY winner Denny McClain had a 4.6-WAR season in 1965, three years before the first of his back-to-back awards. But among HOFers, Jim Kaat going 11 seasons between 5.0-WAR years (1962 and ’74) stands out, though he had some with 4+ WAR in that span

Fletcher: After the Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke group is inducted, how long will it be until the writer’s elect another SP? Do you think someone like Cole will get serious traction or will the reduced workloads be too much of a barrier?

Jay Jaffe: I think Cole will have serious traction if he stays healthy. Good chance to reach both 200 wins and 3,000 strikeouts (he’s at 144 and 2,147 now). It’s who comes after that that’s the question.

KC Pain: Will the Orioles have enough room for all their potential banging at the door in the minors or will they have to make a move or two?

Jay Jaffe: These things have a way of working themselves out, as we saw with Jorge Mateo cooling off after a hot start and yielding SS to Gunnar Henderson. It wouldn’t surprise me if they trade one or both of their corner outfielders to start making some room, and i wouldn’t be surprised if Adam Frazier departs via free agency

Smiling Politely: I was the guy wondering how Kershaw could keep doing this last week, you rightly told me to pump the brakes, and this week: another 5 innings where he never topped 89 and another 5 scoreless. Great pitchers are great for a reason, but it was more nerve-racking to watch than crafty or fulfilling (the walks…). Can he pull this off in the playoffs against a really good hitting team?

Jay Jaffe: Between the diminished stuff and the ongoing health questions, I think every start from Kershaw is going to be a nailbiter and, with his 2024 status up in the air, rather emotionally charged. That’s going to be especially true if he’s facing a team like the Braves, which has enough righties to pound him into oblivion. Buckle up.

Morlock Jimenez: Can you think of any Hall of Famers who have actually benefited from the Character Clause?

Jay Jaffe: For The Cooperstown Casebook I did an extensive search and could only unearth a small handful of examples of the character clause even being mentiond, though they were generally in a positive manner, sometimes earnestly (Harry Heilman, Mel Ott, Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Sandy Koufax) and sometimes tongue-in-cheek (Dizzy Dean and Yogi Berra).

Jay Jaffe: The only one elected after the amplification of the clause via the PED guys — which began when McGwire hit the ballot in 2007 — was Hodges, and that was by committee, but given the amalgamation of his credentials including managing the Mets to a championship, i think it’s safe to assume character entered the discussion

mac: what’s michael king’s ceiling if he can hold up physically on a starter’s workload?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a question better directed to Esteban Rivera, who wrote about him last week, but I’d guess mid-rotation, with workloads always a consideration. The stuff is great, I worry about the stamina. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/michael-king-has-assumed-his-right-place-a…

Sirras: Which division has surprised you the most this year? The least?

Jay Jaffe: Probably the AL East given the sudden rise of the Orioles and drop of the Yankees

Lorenzo: How much of a shot does Senga have at ROY?  I get why Carroll is the favorite, but Senga is one of 4 starters in MLB with an ERA under 3.00 and has only gotten better as the season has progressed.  Carroll is awesome but 20/20+ in 2023 is not an uncommon thing (17 players).  Who should be the ROY in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: I’d call Senga a longshot but think he’ll get consideration both there and in the Cy Young voting. Carroll didn’t just go 20-20, he’s the first rookie to go 25-50, and up until his shoulder issues in early July was at least mentioned in MVP discussions.

Andrew: Is Kyle Bradish underrated?

Jay Jaffe: Probably. He’s top 10 in MLB in both ERA and FIP, with just volume keeping him out of the WAR top 10. Some postseason exposure will certainly raise his profile.

Nate: Do you think all three of Cabrera, Greinke and Votto retire after this season?  If so, how do you think they’ll do the first time they all the hit the ballot together?

Jay Jaffe: Cabrera is a certainty, I don’t think it’s certain either Votto or Greinke will but it wouldn’t surprise me. A lot of what will happen on the ballot will depend upon the holdovers, especially if somebody is close, and that can have a multiyear ripple effect – ask me in January! If I had to guess now I’d say Cabrera high 90s, Greinke low-to-mid 90s, Votto possibly as high as 90s but maybe a bit more vulnerable based on the competition for ballots because he doesn’t have trad counting stats  that are as strong.

Bruce: Why does FanGraphs give tenths of a percent in its playoff odd predictions? Is that degree of accuracy justified by the model, or is it just “for fun”?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’re mostly just for fun and we wouldn’t lose much just rounding to the nearest whole number, but we do run 20,000 simulations of the full 162-game schedule. it’s helpful to see the decimal when odds get really low, significant digits, blah blah blah.

Nate: In addition to the serious HOF contenders (Cabrera, Greinke, Votto), are there others that could retire this offseason that could linger on the ballot for a few years?  Nelson Cruz?  Wainwright?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think Cruz will linger as he’s got the PED suspension. Wainwright doesn’t even have the volume of a Buehrle or a Hudson. I like Longoria a lot more from a JAWS standpoint but if he finishes short of 2,000 hits I don’t think he’ll linger long either.

Nate: Which teams, besides the Braves, look like strong World Series contenders to you?

Jay Jaffe: For all of their September problems I still like the Astros’ chances once you shorten their rotation. Orioles and Rays stand out as well. Dodgers maybe. But all of them have at best about 1/4 to 1/2 the odds of the Braves do of winning.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Am I crazy for thinking J-Hey may be a QO candidate?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, that’s crazy. He’s had a very nice season and the Dodgers probably want him back, but tying a QO to him is an uncool way to do it because it could hamstring his market.

KC Pain: Keston Hiura….I know AAAA guy…..but how come he cant get a shot somewhere?  Im sure he could be traded for some baseball cards and batting helmets. Just turned 27…

Jay Jaffe: Seems pretty clear the Brewers have given up on him because they were so weak at DH (29th with an 82 wRC+) yet never brought him up or even restored him to the 40-man roster. I’d bet he ends up in another organization next season

Matt VW: I’m thinking about the value of Mookie’s shuttling between the infield and the outfield. He’s definitely a rare athlete but I’m wondering if there’s untapped potential in other players who could perform similarly if needed. Do you think only Mookie’s doing it because only Mookie can do it, or do you think teams are overly conservative in estimating their own players’ potential for positional versatility?

Jay Jaffe: There are probably others who can do it but teams are inherently conservative and players like the certainty of their roles. Even among those, not everybody has the confidence and work ethic to make such a move work. Mookie was up to the challenge, though, and it’s been a sight to behold

Greg: Will Davis Schneider get another hit in MLB? Will it happen in 2023?

Jay Jaffe: Good lord, what a brutal regression he’s suffered.

Jay Jaffe: for the record, I do think he’ll get another hit this year but … i’ll pull up the highlight film when it does, I’m not sure I could bear to watch

glt4dc: There may be nothing more futile and inane than raising a Manager of the Year question…but here we go.  I’ve heard next to no mention of Phillies manager Rob Thomson for NL MOY.  I’m partisan as a Phillies fan but I don’t understand why he gets no consideration (again).  Back-to-back playoff appearances and overcoming slow starts in 2022 and 2023 with an imperfect roster should register with MOY voters, right?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think many voters think in terms of bringing last year into the equation except that MOY tends to involve grading on a curve relative to expectations, and a reigning league champion thus enters the season with higher ones regardless of how they got to the dance the year before. So I don’t know that I’d expect him to get a ton of support, but he’ll be in the discussion as will Snitker, Roberts, Counsell, maybe even Schumaker.

Reds Enjoyer: Hey Jay. Thanks for all the chats this season. With this possibly being Votto’s last season, many are talking about his Hall of Fame candidacy. Everyone seems to agree that he is a HoFer (outside of some counting stats weirdos) but I’m seeing a lot of people say he is “not a first ballot guy”. Do you know if there are actually HOF voters who believe a guy is worthy but won’t vote for him at first because they don’t believe he is worthy of making it on the first ballot?

Jay Jaffe: I think there are some who think that way but they’re decreasing in number over time. I think what a lot of people mean when they say they’re not sure if someone’s a first-ballot guy is that “I’m going to need some convincing,” which isn’t entirely unfair.

Greg: Vida Blue is the best example that I could think of off the top of my head. Looks like a reasonable answer.

Jay Jaffe: I assume this is pertaining to the Snell question, but Blue had three big (5+ WAR) seasons after his epic 9-WAR 1971 — they came five, seven, and nine years later. Had some trouble recovering from 1971 due to workload and the fallout from his holdout.

Coolio: Do you see Beli getting a 12 year deal or something like other star talents in recent offseasons? Does he have leverage to demand more due to the very lackluster class of FAs this year?

Jay Jaffe: No. His career has been far too volatile to merit that long a deal, and he’s well ahead of his Statcast x-numbers to boot. I think he’ll be fine, with something in the 4-5 year range.

Guest: If Jacob deGrom is not able to add meaningfully to his HoF case he very likely does not make it (a la Johan Santana). However, someone like Billy Wagner sits on the cusp of getting the call. It feels like this distinction completely revolves around treating relievers as a separate position, and I have a tough time reconciling that. What do you think? Accept and move on?

Jay Jaffe: yes. I understand why it chafes some people that a guy with a workload half to one-third the size of a pretty good starter gets in while the starter doesn’t, but the whole game has been rebuilt around elite relievers to some extent, and voters have chosen to recognize it. I can’t get too worked up against it, and if/when Wagner gets in, I’ll be quite happy for him.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Kevin Acee from the SD Union Tribune wrote that the Pads are “out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio.” First time I’ve heard of this rule. Do you know any more?

Jay Jaffe: IIRC it got talked about more during the Selig era. Since we’re not privy to the books of any teams (except the Braves, whose finances are public) it seems to be selectively enforced, a means for the commissioner to warn a team to curb its spending. Came up a bit w/r/t McCourt I think.

Guest: I dont know if you are the right guy to ask but is it possible to get a peek into the Stuff+ breakdowns that you did for Hunter Brown. Looking at his innings, he is 24.2 over last years numbers (including playoffs) which tracks well with the tanking of his stuff metrics. Is this a common occurrence among pitchers building up to a seasons full workload over the past few years?

Jay Jaffe: You can see the year-by-year comparisons for a page like this https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&ind=1&typ…. I think you have to be a member to make a custom player table but am not entirely sure

Elbow Macaroni: The Cardinals have the exact same problem they had last offseason, which they didn’t address, and seem poised to not address it again.  They need to pay Nola and Snell and a flyer or two like Thor just to have a CHANCE next year.  Right?

Jay Jaffe: The Cardinals have long favored contact-centric types who ideally would thrive in front of a strong defense over pure stuff guys who miss bats. They probably need to be big players in free agency but their historical aversion to the deep end of the pool won’t help. I’m not sure Nola and Snell are particularly great horses to bet on either, really don’t like the trend arrows on the former.

Marcus: If Trout were a free agent would he get more or less than the 7/248M he’s owed on that contract?

Jay Jaffe: Less, due to the durability issues.

Insert Witty Name Here: Saw a game on TV recently that removed the strike zone box on the TV and it was so much more enjoyable. Do you agreed and/or do you think MLB should start providing more customizable options for watching games?

Jay Jaffe: It would be nice if the viewer could toggle the zone box on or off. Could do it with streaming, at least theoretically, but I think you’d need a separate channel to do it over the air

WinTwins0410: Jay, regarding the Hall of Fame, how do you think about something that Bill James wrote the other day (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UKSmD_RglQYAW3c6Z6-xyB5VNWzrw5eCkD…), in which Bill asserted that the real problem with the Hall is not that it has no higher level, but that it has no lower level?  James wrote that “the fact that THERE IS NO SUCH HONOR” (for Hall of Very Good-type players) “forces people to argue that Johnny Damon is a Hall of Famer or Thurman Munson is a Hall of Famer or Omar Vizquel is a Hall of Famer, because that’s all there is.”  Bill also made an alternative (and complicated) proposal at that link about the idea of a 10-level Hall of Fame.  Curious what you think about that notion as well.  (I won’t ask you what you think of Bill calling Dave Stieb “half-qualified,” because I already know and agree with your view on Stieb’s Hall-worthiness.)

Jay Jaffe: I did see Bill mention this on Twitter awhile back but haven’t read the whole thing. At first glance it’s an interesting idea but I’m sure it’s something the Hall would never go for, as it is very protective of its membership and would reject the notion that anyone is a lower-tier HOFer (ask the guy whose book about the Hall of Fame was never sold at the Hall of Fame).

Harry Feet: I would feel very good sending each of the Brewers starters out there in a playoff game.  How much does that really matter for postseason v. regular?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure *your* feelings about each Brewers starter matter  😉 but the Brewers do have a very good front four for their rotation. Unfortunately for them, so do a lot of other teams, and even the ones that don’t have much deeper offenses.

Baby Billy’s Bible Bonkers: How will mlb historians view Kyle Schwarber’s 2023 season 50 years from now?  A one-off or the new norm?

Jay Jaffe: Seasons like Schwarber’s are still pretty anomalous. Even if we raise the batting average bar to .220 there have been only half a dozen seasons with such a low average and 40+ homers, all in the past 12 seasons:

Jay Jaffe:

Scott: Why Moreno announce he was selling the Angels, then change his mind? Or did I dream that happened?

Jay Jaffe: I think he thought there was an Ohtani windfall to be reaped.

Bryzzo: Would Ohtani have a shot at the HOF as either just the pitcher or just the hitter? Which do you think is the better possibility?

Jay Jaffe: Hitter more likely just due to the attrition rate of pitchers, but he’d need to take up a position if he were only a one-way player.

matt w: Chris Sale looked like he was on the HoF path until he got hurt. Do you think there’s anything he can do to revive his chances? Will we see more starting pitchers get off to amazing starts until their arm breaks, and do you think this will affect future Hall voters’ thinking?

Jay Jaffe: pitch more innings and pitch better while doing so, but obv that’s easier said than done. The fact is that he’s now gone 4 straight seasons with less than 100 innings and that’s the death knell for a candidacy.

I’d hope over time that voters become more appreciative of the Johan Santana/David Cone/Dave Stieb types because pitching attrition rates are so high and volume so hard to attain, but it’s going to be awhile yet before they get another test case to see if there’s been a philosophical shift. Santana’s wasn’t really a fair fight due to how crowded the ballot was.

Dave: If you had the power, what team that isn’t making the playoffs this season would you want to add and why?

Jay Jaffe: Mariners. I have family members on both sides in the Seattle area — my uncle Harold was an usher at the Diamond Club there in his retirement years — and I just cringe a bit when they get so close but fall short.

David: If you had an nl mvp vote who would you vote for?

Jay Jaffe: Even after all of that, I’m still torn, which was the point of the article. Might be 50.0001% to 49.9999% for Acuña but it’s close

Guest: How do waiver pickups work for players on multiyear contracts?  I’m thinking of Aaron Hicks – he still has two more years left on his Yankee contract.  Do the Orioles automatically get to keep him for the next two years only paying the minimum salary? (which I think comes out of what the Yankees pay)  Or is he a free agent this offseason and can sign with any team who will pay the him the minimum again?  And a team can theoretically sign him to a contract more than his Yankees deal, which would let the Yankees off the hook (I know no one would be that foolish.)

Jay Jaffe: Hicks will be a free agent at the end of the season and can sign where he chooses. The Yankees still owe him another $21 million through 2025 minus the minimum salary.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: J-Hey’s QO. Joc in 2022: .274/.353/.521 in 433 PA with no defense.
J-Hey in 2023: .268/.343/.482 in 356 PA with plus defense.
Is it THAT crazy?

Jay Jaffe: Joc was 3 years younger when he got his QO.

Retired WFT Fan: Hi Jay, just wanted to say thanks to you and all the FG staff for another [regular] season of chats!

1. what do you do with the unanswered questions?
2. what ratio of questions do you usually find yourself answering?

Jay Jaffe: Some unanswered questions turn into article topics. I probalby only get to about 25% of the questions people ask, and maybe only half of the ones I’d like to answer, but sometimes more thought is required than the 1-2 minutes I can devote to a reply.

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, i’ve run out of time here. Thanks so much for stopping by. Not sure yet what next week’s schedule holds with the playoffs beginning on Tuesday; it’s more likely I’m part of a group chat next week than an individual one.