Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/16/15

October 16, 2015

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: As expected since February, today’s ALCS Game 1 will be started by Marco Estrada and Edinson Volquez.

9:10	Comment From Guest Can we appreciate for a moment that literally 1/3 of Canada watched game 5 of the ALDS?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I love that one team unites a whole country, that a few weeks from now will revert to a sort of hockey-based tribalism

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The other day, in Toronto, I heard the “ole” chant. The Montreal Canadiens chant. The Blue Jays allow for all of Canada to temporarily set aside its many differences

9:13	Comment From Bonzo Was really puzzled yesterday by the decision to let Familia hit with a runner on second and the fact that Puig was on the bench at the end of the game. That is all.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Puig just wasn’t feeling healthy enough to be competitive. And while pinch-hitting for Familia might’ve statistically been the right call, no manager in the game does that. Not with the rest of the Mets’ pitching options

9:16	Comment From Ben The Cubs are favored to win the NLCS, which seems optimistic. Aren’t they at an even greater disadvantage in a 7-game series than the Dodgers were in a 5-game series given the Mets’ length and quality of rotation (plus Bartolo)?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Bartolo is really much of a factor, but my own impression doesn’t agree with what the playoff odds say right now. I’d say it’s at least 50/50, more likely with the Mets as slight favorites. When the chat is over I’ll dive into the depth charts to see if anything might need to be adjusted

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not the one who’s supposed to be in charge of those teams but I’ll take a look anyway!

9:17	Comment From @RationalMLBfan If the MLB season were a long game of Color War, they could stop now, because Blue has won.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: And blue is my favorite color. I’m going to win a championship!

9:17	Comment From MSW You don’t have to provide me with content, I’m quite content with the Mets win last night as it is!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: In general, it’s been such an awesome playoffs to this point. The Astros/Yankees game was sort of a bust, and the Cubs/Pirates didn’t reach a dramatic climax, but what an LDS round

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I love how fresh all the teams feel, even if that means there won’t be so many fresh teams to choose from a year from now

9:19	Comment From Guest Why pinch hit Utley for Pederson against Familia?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Pederson has sucked for a while and I think they prioritized contact. As it happened, Utley just missed the tying homer — the pitch he sent to the outfield was a godawful hanger

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Utley with his legs might’ve hit that one out

9:20	Comment From Sal Hi Jeff, any indication that Mattingly’s job my be in danger? My non data driven gut tells me while not on Matt Williams’ level, Mattingly could be part of what is keeping the Dodgers from getting over the hump. This is a few consecutive years of falling short of expectations.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: If you listen to the rumors, Mattingly’s job is constantly in danger. It’ll never be a surprise if we wake up one day to see he’s been dismissed

9:21	Comment From Guest What are your LCS predictions?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Jays and Mets

9:21	Comment From Will What are the odds Migguel Cabrera gets traded this offseason. How high would the price be? Think Astros might be a fit?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Cabrera’s going nowhere

9:22

Comment From dprat
Unlikely to make a difference on a play in the 4th inning like last night, but is there any chance that the current high K environment changes the calculus on the decision to catch a 7th inning or later foul fly that allows the tying run to score? How about if the pitcher K’s 30% of batters (there were 22 with 50 IP this year)? No? How about 40% (three this year)?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know exactly where the break-even points are. Obviously, the better the pitcher and the worse the hitter, the more likely you are to want to just let the ball drop. But as a consideration, how often do outfielders really know when they’re crossing into foul territory, especially if the fly is more of a low liner that gets there in a relative hurry?

9:24

Comment From Art Vandelay
I thought it was absurd to to bring in Familia to pitch the eighth after Syndergaard looked so great the inning prior. I thought they would surely regret it when Familia’s spot came up in the order with 2 on 2 out in the ninth and left them unable to pinch hit and extend their lead. I thought for sure Familia would give up the lead with one swing when the Dodgers started emptying their bench. I really thought all those things. Translation: I am dumb, and baseball is the best.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not dumb, you’ve just been conditioned by experience. That’s actually the opposite of dumb! You’re teachable!

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Cynical, perhaps, but teachable! It’s always a psychological challenge when laughingstock teams turn good. Fans mentally adjust slower than the players do. Right now your brain is working to make sense of something that runs contrary to almost all of its recent training

9:25	Comment From Guest thank you for joining us

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: No, thank you

9:26

Comment From mtsw
Who wins the game of Qualifying Offer Chicken between Scott Boras/Matt Wieters and the Orioles? It’s been reported that the Orioles only plan on offering him the QO if they know he won’t take it. Obviously from Boras/Wieters perspective they don’t want it offered and hurt his FA value. How does this play out?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Every free-agent catcher but Wieters sucks. He should get a QO

9:27	Comment From Art Vandelay O/U 7 Ks a game for the Mets pitchers against this Cubs lineup?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: 7? More like 9 or 10

9:27	Comment From Joel So what went on with Andre Ethier and Donny?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Apparently that was about the umpire, not Mattingly. Just looked bad on TV

9:28	Comment From Robert Do you find what Arte Moreno has done with the team payroll odd? Not really just making bad signings, but doing so until he pushes the limits of the luxury tax, and then telling his GM going over a $1 more is unacceptable?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I have found it a little strange when the Angels have argued they’re out of money. But every team has its own budgeting ideas and I guess Moreno might just not be programmed to allow much wiggle room. Payroll’s been fairly consistent five years in a row. There hasn’t been much in the way of playoff revenue for a while

9:30	Comment From Gabe Obviously it all worked out, but why wouldn’t TC have left Syndergaard in for the 8th? Managing to preserve him for Game 2 of the NLCS seems awfully risky/dumb.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I wasn’t entirely sure why they took him out, but maybe they told him before the game he’d get only one inning. Not going to complain too much about taking it easier on a starter like that

9:32	Comment From MSW So Murphy getting the QO seems like a pretty safe bet at this point. Does he accept it? And if not, aren’t the Yankees the best bet to sign him? He won’t cost too much in terms of dollars or contract length and he can probably hit 30 homers with that right field porch.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s that safe a bet — the Mets won’t make this decision just based on the NLDS. Previously they’ve looked for every reason possible to trade him. As for the Yankees, I think they want to give an extended look at Dustin Ackley who they also think is perfect for the park

9:33	Comment From Phillies113 What did we do to deserve these LCS matchups? I feel unjustly rewarded somehow

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: There had to be something at the other end of the Cardinals reign of terror

9:33	Comment From S How difficult do you think it was for Ron Darling to remain unbiased?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Ehhh, he’s done this long enough. He can just channel whatever bias he might feel into an information bias, instead of an opinion bias.

9:34	Comment From mtsw Marco Estrada and Edinson Volquez are like Cy Young compared to the guys the Royals had start Game 7 of the 2014 World Series.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: god the Royals are weird

9:34	Comment From Phineas J. Whoopie Went camping last week in a remote quarter of Nevada. How great are baby wipes?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: very great

9:35	Comment From Joey Bat Flips Can we replace the World Series with a bat flip contest between Schwarber and Bautista? The Cubs fan in me says Schwarber can force a game 7 but Bautista is too good to not win it all.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’d personally rather watch the baseball games but in your hypothetical I think Bautista wins from experience

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Although, does he feel as emotional in a bat-flip contest? Without the emotion, I don’t think his heart would really be in it

9:39

Comment From L. Scott
Hey Jeff! I have a question about Grandal/Grienke’s pitch call on the 3-2 count to Murphy in the 6th. Out of his three awesome plus pitches, were you surprised they called for a fastball in? I would think if you do choose fastball, that’s the last place you want that pitch for a lefty pull hitter who likes the ball down and in.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I just went back and looked at this for a few minutes

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Firstly just to confirm that was the call. Indeed, it was a fastball, and Grandal set up low and inside

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: It wasn’t that much of a failure to execute. I think Greinke was trying to front-door the fastball but it ran a little too far up and out

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: As always it’s impossible to evaluate one single pitch because *every* pitch makes sense some percentage of the time. To that point in the game Murphy hadn’t yet seen a low inside fastball. But then, the low inside fastball to a lefty pull hitter is a dangerous pitch. I’m sure Greinke isn’t too happy to get burned on it

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: (I have not read any post-game quotes)

9:43	Comment From Canuck To be fair, I know plenty of folks outside of Ontario who will root for anyone but the Jays since they’re tired of Toronto always being the talk of the town.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, there are also these people. Nothing literally unites everyone. But my personal frame of reference is how Blue Jays fans take over Safeco Field whenever Toronto visits Seattle. Those people are coming from the Canadian west

9:44	Comment From Guest As fans, 100 mph is an awesome pitch, but does 100 look much different from 98 to a batter? Or is it the opposite and that every .1 of a mph is a bigger deal once you’re talking about speeds that high

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Batters notice, but they don’t notice like we do, because we see the velocity numbers and we’re biased in favor of the third digit. It gets harder to hit with every additional mile per hour, but we as observers exaggerate the significance of the 99 – 100 gap. In our defense, we can’t help it

9:48	Comment From Blerg Too soon to talk about the offseason? Do you think the Braves make a play for Matt Wieters, Ben Zobrist, Scott Kazmir, or Dexter Fowler in the offseason? Maybe the better question is whether it’s advisable to sign these sorts of players at this point in the team’s life cycle.

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Wieters is tough; the Braves could use a catcher, but Wieters blocks Bethancourt, and it’s not like you can then move Wieters to first. Zobrist is more likely to go to a contender, and the Braves might just want to build from within as far as the rotation is concerned. That’s what they’ve been stock-piling. Fowler could make them better but if he gets four years, they wouldn’t want to pair that with Markakis

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s an overall discouraging answer. But free agency isn’t where the Braves will find their offensive salvation

9:50	Comment From Jonny Gomes #1 Fan Do you have any advice for me, who is very likely the only person who lives in downtown Toronto cheering for the Kansas City Royals?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Wear blue and keep quiet in crowds

9:50	Comment From J Nah they’ve used the “Jose, Jose, Jose” chant for years in Toronto.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Then I misheard! Stand down

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: General point remains though, I think

9:51	Comment From Dave Dodgers starting IF next season: AGonz at 1B , Kendrick at 2B, Seager at SS & Justin Turner at 3B? Is that what you see as well or will there be changes?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: That is what’s most likely

9:52	Comment From Avi Many Cub fans believe that the weaker team won last night and they will have an easy walk into the World Series. Do you agree with this slightly misguided belief?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I liked the Dodgers a tiny bit more than the Mets, but the Mets are also really good. They’re probably a little better than the Cubs

9:53	Comment From Hank G. Maybe I am wrong, but I feel like Bautista has received more criticism for flipping his bat than Utley did for flipping Tejada. Is this your impression?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to separate Bautista criticism from Bautista discussion, of which there has been plenty. Bautista has also gotten lots of support. But you’re talking about two different issues. Bautista’s is perceived as a matter of sportsmanship. Utley’s is perceived as a matter of playing the game too hard. Utley has more than a century of baseball as precedent. Bautista simply annoyed people who are already prone to annoyance

9:55	Comment From Blerg Now that Kiley is w the Braves we can expect Fangraphs to have all the juicy inside info. about what the Braves front office is going to do, right? Riiiight?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Trade hitters for hard-throwing young pitchers

9:56	Comment From Guest What does the Mets rotation look like going into the NLCS? Am I right to be a little nervous that Cubs have Lester and Arrieta on full rest while deGrom and Thor threw last night?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Harvey and Matz are good too, better than the Cubs’ other options. You’re right to be nervous, period. Because it’s the LCS. But both teams have strengths and weaknesses and there’s no point in trying to figure out who has more of either

9:57	Comment From Ryan Does it make more sense for the Astros to go after a bat (Heyward, Gordon, Cespedes) or an ace (Price, Cueto) in the offseason? Luhnow has said they have the necessary resources to do either.

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: A guy like Heyward or Gordon could end up more cost-effective. But they’re also all free agents and there’s no telling who wants to go where. Houston still might have a bit of a reputation. So it’s perhaps more likely the Astros explore the trade market, where people can’t as easily say no to their overtures

9:59	Comment From Guesto How long do I have to be respectful to Dan Farnsworth before I can start INTERNET YELLING at him about undervaluing my favorite team’s top prospects?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: At least wait until he rates your favorite team’s top prospects