Noah Syndergaard Was Aroldis Chapman for One Night

That a starting pitcher in Major League Baseball gains velocity as he heads to the bullpen is not a new phenomenon. At this point, it is a strategy. When a pitcher cannot last five innings consistently or fails to develop a necessary off-speed pitch, the pitcher is sent to the bullpen to see if his stuff will “play up” in shorter outings, allowing him to air out the fastball. It is rare, however, to see a pitcher who can go five innings, who has the off-speed stuff to stick as a starter, and already has elite bullpen-ready velocity as a starter. With Noah Syndergaard last night, we were able to witness exactly what that is like. For one night, Syndergaard turned himself into Aroldis Chapman.

There were few doubts that Syndergaard could hit 100 mph as a reliever. Syndergaard’s velocity has been with him all season. He throws two fastballs, a four-seamer and a two-seamer, and both of them have averaged close to 98 mph this season, according to Brooks Baseball. He hit 100 mph twice during the season as a starter, joining only Gerrit Cole, Nathan Eovaldi, Carlos Martinez, and Rubby de la Rosa as starters to reach that mark, per Baseball Savant. Also according to Baseball Savant, only 24 pitchers total in the majors this season have hit 100 mph. Only a few days ago, Syndergaard hit 100 mph at the end of his outing in Game 2 of the National League Division Series against the Dodgers.

If throwing fast gained a pitcher sainthood, Aroldis Chapman would have been canonized a while ago. The Reds left-hander threw more balls over 100 mph than the rest of MLB combined this year. Nearly 30% of all of Chapman’s pitches this season reached triple digits and, for one night, Syndergaard was Chapman’s equal.

There might have been some concern that Syndergaard, after warming up multiple times, would have trouble remaining fresh and strong when he entered the game in the seventh inning. The giant Met erased all doubts with a first-pitch 100 mph fastball to Howie Kendrick. He got Kendrick to ground out on a 99 mph fastball. He hit 100 mph again to the next hitter, Corey Seager, before striking him out, too — this time on 99 mph fastball to the upper corner the zone.

Syndergaard walked the next hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, but hit the century mark a few times in that plate appearance as well. Whether it was the situation, the warming up, or simply trying to overpower hitters, Syndergaard’s control was not at its best. The strike zone map from Brooks Baseball shows where Syndergaard’s pitches ended up in last night’s seventh inning. (From catcher’s point of view.)

Throwing as hard as he was, Syndergaard did not need pinpoint control. He only needed to be around the zone, and he was. Looking at MLB Gameday, Syndergaard produced seven pitches that reached the 100 mph threshold. Consider, in light of that, that only seven pitchers threw more than seven pitches at 100 mph over the course of the entire season, per Brooks Baseball. While there could be some rounding involved on Gameday and the number might be five as opposed to seven, the number of high-velocity pitches is remarkable. Syndergaard averaged 99.3 mph on his four-seam fastball and 99.8 mph on his two-seam fastball, per Brooks Baseball. Looking at the 24 pitchers with at least one pitch over 100 mph, I cross-referenced all of their outings at Brooks Baseball. This is is the list of pitchers who have averaged more than 99.3 mph on their four-seam fastballs and the number of outings during which they did so this season.

# of Games, Pitcher’s Four-Seamer Averaged >99.3 MPH

	Number of Times
Aroldis Chapman	50
Kelvin Herrera	26
Arquimedes Caminero	24
Carter Capps	10
Trevor Rosenthal	9
Jeurys Familia	8
Jumbo Diaz	7
Bruce Rondon	7
Nathan Eovaldi	2
Ken Giles	2
Arodys Vizcaino	2
Pedro Baez	1
Kevin Gausman	1
Dellin Betances	1

SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

Chapman heads the list, with Kelvin Herrera and Arquimedes Caminero putting in their fair share. Nathan Eovaldi deserves a special note given that he accomplished the feat as a starter. Syndergaard’s two-seam fastball was actually faster than his four-seam fastball in Game 5, at 99.8 mph. This is the same chart above instead using twoseam fastballs and 99.8 mph.

# of Games, Pitcher’s Two-Seamer Averaged >99.8 MPH

	Number of Times
Jake Diekman	3
Kelvin Herrera	2
Jumbo Diaz	2
Bruce Rondon	1
Jeurys Familia	1

SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

Out of all relief outings this season, those were the only games in which a pitcher exceeded Syndergaard’s average two-seam velocity. Putting the outing in context with Chapman, the graph below shows every outing from Chapman this year in descending order of fastball velocity. Syndergaard’s four-seam, two-seam, and the average of the two are indicated by the different colors in the chart.

Syndergaard’s velocity was not peak Chapman, but he produced a reasonable facsimile of the Reds closer last night. Chapman normally throws 29% of his pitches at 100 mph or above, per Brooks Baseball. If we go by the MLB Gameday numbers and give Syndergaard seven such pitches, then he threw 41% of his pitches with triple-digit velocity. Even bumping the number down to five pitches, Syndergaard gives himself a Chapman-esque 29% of his pitches at 100 mph or above.

Syndergaard did not throw only fastballs. He mixed in four breaking balls among the 13 fastballs. Hitters swung at all four of those pitches, and only one swing made contact. That ball went foul. To visualize the difference graphically, here is a pitch by pitch of Syndergaard’s night, from Brooks Baseball.

After setting up Corey Seager with three off-speed pitches with one fastball mixed in, Syndergaard blew Seager away with a fastball. That fastball was succeeded by eight others in a row that inning, including three straight to start the plate appearances against Justin Turner, who had given the Mets a difficult time, getting on base in 11 out of 19 plate appearances. After those three fastballs, however, Syndergaard changed speeds. Turner swung without hope.

Syndergaard will head back into the rotation where he belongs, as the Mets try to fend off the Cubs and get back to the World Series for the first time in more than a decade. For one night, Noah Syndergaard, shutdown reliever, bridged the gap between Jacob deGrom and Jeurys Familia. Every out is important in a winner-take-all game, but Syndergaard’s three might have been the most magnificent in a thrilling victory for the Mets.