Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/8/13

October 8, 2013

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Wow, a live chat! Can’t remember the last time I did one of these!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: In today’s live chat, we’ll just re-live yesterday’s five-hour Red Sox/Rays marathon. We begin in the top of the first…

9:02	Comment From Mr. Hand You’re late, Mr. Spicoli, stop wasting MY time!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: One a god damned minute!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Typos!

9:03	Comment From tylersnotes to whom do i register my disappointment in the lack of articles about pitcher pace in yesterday’s sox/rays game?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing new to say, really, and there were far more important and compelling things to write about, like Jose Lobaton going deep, and the Quintin Berry “steal” of second (which I think Dave will be writing about a little later)

9:04	Comment From Prich Why Hellickson, does Maddon next read your’s and Dave’s deep thoughts!?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t quite figured this one out, between Hellickson and Archer, but my assumption is that Maddon has a good reason and I just haven’t tried hard enough to try to track it down. Crowdsource!

9:05	Comment From Bruce You Again!!?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I live in here. It’s just sometimes I close the doors.

9:05	Comment From Ben Approximately how much less time will tonight’s game take?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: 45 minutes

9:05	Comment From J6takish Dave loves the ‘bullpen game’ in elimination games but would you do it with detroits bullpen?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t do it with Detroit’s bullpen or Detroit’s rotation. I’d be a little more aggressive with the relievers, perhaps, but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to yank any of those starting arms

9:06	Comment From Gson… Someone should help Dave with his wardrobe.. he must be colorblind.. The Rays are not going away without a fight. Does this series go five?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I think it ends tonight, although I think it’s closer than people expect it to be. I don’t know which is the latest Dave TV appearance but sometimes they send him clothes to put on.

9:06	Comment From Ben As a Red Sox fan I have the impression that Hellickson destroys the Sox, though the stats show he’s mediocre against them in his career. But then again, what do the stats know? Nerds.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Is this about a changeup? Is Maddon going to piggyback both of the guys?

9:07	Comment From Brandon Fredi has to bring in Kimbrel after Puig’s double, right? Let Medlen close 9th if need be with Minor game 5.

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Kimbrel can handle six outs. Gonzalez had him lined up for four, but between four and six there’s very little difference. There was a little talk on Twitter about this after the game — Glen Perkins agreed that Kimbrel should’ve thrown both innings, and that the big issue is getting up and down between innings. So, six outs max, not four

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: For the record, David Carpenter was a really good reliever this year. He should’ve been able to get through that eighth. But he’s no Kimbrel, because basically no one is

9:09	Comment From Jake So I’m guessing Chris Archer is unavailable to pitch today, after all his warm-ups yesterday?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I should certainly hope not, but yeah, that’s quietly taxing

9:09	Comment From NewSchoolFan Why am I not particularly bothered by Loney/Zobrist-style obstruction on pickoff/CS throws (to the point of feeling, in my gut, that obstruction would have been the wrong call), whereas I think obstruction on plays at the plate is an anathema? Am I a hypocrite?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: There are injuries on plays at the plate, so maybe you’re just being a good human. But yeah, this is something that ought to be talked about. That’s two times in a few days we’ve seen a possible obstruction call, and even if by the letter of the law the plays were all right, maybe they shouldn’t be? Worthwhile discussion

9:10	Comment From Guest Rally towels or Pom-poms?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Towels

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Look better at the time, have more uses later

9:11	Comment From Justin Will we ever see a triumphant return from Johan Santana?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get another win

9:11	Comment From CMR I hate (respectfully!) Pedro Alvarez and think the Cards are fools for throwing him any fastballs at all, but how impressive is it to take the ONE pitch you can obliterate and obliterate it?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Well, if there’s one pitch you can obliterate as a hitter, you better be damned sure you’re getting that pitch when it’s thrown to you. You have to seize your opportunities

9:12	Comment From Dougie If you were the GM for a CF needy team and Carlos Gomez had not signed his extension prior to the season (Qualifications!) would you target him or Jacoby Ellsbury?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Both, with Gomez getting slight priority. Younger, not markedly worse as a hitter

9:14	Comment From Derek A’s have to win tonight to win the series?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Of course not. The Braves were a managerial decision away from beating Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers with Freddy Garcia

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: They lost the first game by a run

9:14	Comment From Shawn How about Freddy Garcia though?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: So much to be learned from Garcia vs. Kershaw, so much of it will be forgotten

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The next time there’s such a matchup, there’s going to be the same degree of panic. People don’t appreciate how f***in random baseball can be sometimes

9:15	Comment From Ben Cowbell or more Cowbell?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I like that the Rays have a thing, at least. It beats Rob Szasz

9:16	Comment From Ben If Joe Maddon doesn’t get rid of the DH to prove he’s smarter than everybody else, does Lobaton homer?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Lobaton wouldn’t have been hitting in that spot. Would’ve been Fuld or Young or whoever

9:16	Comment From Brady I’ve come to accept that managers will never change, so when will managing change? When will front offices begin making strategic competence the main priority?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: When there are actual managers out there who are strategically competent. They’re few and far between, and it isn’t a manager’s most important job anyway. The key is probably open-mindedness, so you can hire a guy and then work with him, like how the Pirates have gotten Clint Hurdle to embrace defensive shifting based on Dan Fox’s data and whatnot. Hurdle is an old-school guy, but he’s learned a new trick

9:18	Comment From Bruce Early pick for NL east in 14: Braves or Nats?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Braves by a game or two

9:18	Comment From LarryA Without looking- can you name what new division all NHL teams are in?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely can’t! I know Ottawa, and that’s what I know

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: My approach to hockey is completely different from my approach to baseball

9:19	Comment From Miller Should I go to University of Chicago’s law school on a great scholarship or go to Stanford’s law school on a decent scholarship? Also, should I go to law school at all?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:19	Comment From Ben Will Peavy swear on the mound more or less than Grant Balfour?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: More in total, less per inning

9:19	Comment From Cube Jockey Bringing in Martinez instead of Rosenthal in the eighth? How does an organziation that seems to everything else right end up with a manager that continues to make questionable postseasons decisions?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a case of the Fredi Gonzalez move not completely backfiring. Similar move, though. Trust the ace reliever. He’s the ace reliever

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: just last NLCS, Rosenthal made consecutive two-inning appearances, generating eight total strikeouts

9:22	Comment From Guest T/F: A’s have the most fun fanbase in baseball?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: They seem to have the most fun environment, but when I mentioned that on Twitter the other day I got a lot of anger from people who thought they’re just all a bunch of terrible drunks, so, opinions sure provoke opinions

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: The A’s are not lacking for home-crowd enthusiasm, which is a thing you can’t say about everybody

9:23	Comment From Lenard What on earth are the White Sox trying to accomplish by going after Granderson with the team they currently have?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Local ties, and they might think they’d be able to get him at something of a discount coming off that season he just had. They’re not that far from contention, in that few bad teams are. But I think they end up comfortably outbid by somebody better

9:25	Comment From Hammertime Did you watch Breaking Bad? I haven’t watched the series yet, but the hype is making it harder not to.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Genuine non-hyperbole: it might be television’s greatest accomplishment

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Genuine non-hyperbole: I don’t know very much about the history of television

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: How you feel about Breaking Bad is how I feel about The Wire, but I’m still giving that another few years for people to completely stop talking about it

9:26	Comment From Derd Lurding Brian McCann is ringing your doorbell with a 6 pack of light beer in the crook of his arm. Do you: A) Taze him B) Pour boiling oil on him C) Throw your cats at him D) Suffer through the next 4 hours as he whines on your couch

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I would invite him in because it seems like in that situation Brian McCann is just looking for a friend when he’s in a dark place

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t have a doorbell, a taser, oil to boil, or cats

9:27	Comment From Shawn Did Juan Uribe really have a 5 WAR season?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: #weirdbaseball

9:27	Comment From Sadwick Do you think the Braves start quietly looking for a new manager in years to come? Freddi really looked bad this series…..

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Contract year, right? It probably won’t be that quiet

9:28	Comment From Brady As a Red Sox fan, the Carl Crawford signing ruined signing aging speedsters for me, but I always hear that those players age better than power bats. So that being said, should I not be bitter if the Sox re-sign Ellsbury?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: If the Red Sox re-sign Ellsbury they’ll be re-signing a really good player still around the peak of his career, and those rules about player types are greatly overstated

9:28	Comment From Ben Fun fact: Juan Uribe slugged over .500 in 2004

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: and then he hit even more home runs with the Giants in 2010

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: The most mind-blowing thing is probably Juan Uribe being a good defender

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s like observing Prince Fielder’s agility. How?!

9:30	Comment From Shawn Which Fat Juan is fatter? Francisco or Uribe?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I misread this question when I accepted it from the queue. So I’ll say they’re both healthy athletes

9:31	Comment From lewish Alverez crushing what he must, Lobaton hitting nastiness…the margin of error to play at that level is crazy, and I think it is healthy to just be in awe more often and enjoy the show.

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s more fun and a lot healthier to enjoy the ability rather than criticize the players or managerial decisions. There’s a place for negativity, sure, and sometimes it’s fine to indulge, but at the end of the day sometimes Jose Lobaton knocks out one of baseball’s very best pitches and what are we supposed to do with that but appreciate the spectacle?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: People argue against the Wild Card playoff because they don’t like a season coming down to one game, they think it’s too random. October is awesome because of the randomness. Those are the lasting memories. Tony Womack vs. Mariano Rivera, and so on

9:33	Comment From Mark Best 3 Simpsons episodes, go!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t do favorites. They were all special snowflakes

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: until about 15 years ago

9:33	Comment From Sadwick I’m going with Pittsburgh for the most fun fanbase. I haven’t been to Oakland though, so….

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Pittsburgh has definitely had an awesome postseason crowd, but Oakland’s been like this year after year in October and you get the sense in Oakland it’s really about devotion, and not so much about just being a part of the scene. Because, you know, the stadium experience itself sucks

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Pittsburgh has flags. I love that Pittsburgh has flags. It’s incredible to watch

9:35

Comment From Guest
DO you think it’s possible that a team’s fanbase can just get “bored”? For example, the Cardinals fans have been relatively quiet so far, and the Yankees fans didn’t even sell out an ALCS game last year. While it seems like newer postseason teams like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore have the loudest fans.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, absolutely. A big part of the noise is appreciation of the circumstances, and it’s hard to appreciate what you’re accustomed to

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Additionally, when you have a stadium that’s routinely at or near capacity, it’s going to behave a certain usual way. When you have a stadium that suddenly starts approaching capacity, there are all those extra filled seats that have a chance to change the environment. There won’t be a “routine” for that kind of crowd, so it should be easier to alter the atmosphere

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: So a place like Oakland will respond to a sellout differently than a place like St Louis, that’s usually sold out or close to it

9:38	Comment From Ben Which nerd will trade for David Price?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: feel like Rangers or Cubs

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: some people the other day also speculated about the Diamondbacks?

9:38	Comment From Mark Remember when Zito won game 1 against Verlander last year?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: and had an RBI single

9:39	Comment From Ben also, whose division rivals will McCann be yelling at come April?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: based on some chatter yesterday we came up with the Rangers, Red Sox or Yankees

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Opportunity here for the Yankees to make up for the Russell Martin mistake

9:40	Comment From Sadwick Why has Brian McCann suddenly have a worse reputation than Milton Bradley, ARod, Bonds, and Elijah Dukes all rolled into one super douchebag? I get it, he was a dick towards the end of this season, but damn talk about knee-jerk reactions.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, so, that’s an exaggeration. People are just having fun with a new thing

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll die down within a matter of weeks

9:40	Comment From Colin Wyers Doppleganger But with the fragility of defensive statistics, how can we actually know that Juan Uribe was a good defensive player?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Because he’s always been a pretty good defensive player, and people overstate the issues with defensive metrics. Obviously, they’re not perfect, but there’s a lot of territory between perfect and worthless

9:41	Comment From Ben CC Sabathia is a very good athlete. And David Ortiz sprinted last night, much faster than I’d expect

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: These people are barely even human

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Jose Lobaton? I bet if you saw him in person, on the street, you’d think to yourself, “damn”

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Or, you know, not. Hell if I know, I don’t see him around in Portland

9:42	Comment From Arquimedes Bozo The Mariners are the only current team to never play in the World Series. Will this ever fucking change? Maybe we just need a manager with thick rimmed glasses. Thanks Jeff

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: You’re forgetting the Nationals/Expos

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners will be good eventually, and Safeco will have an atmosphere again, eventually

9:43	Comment From Ben To get to this level you have to be an incredible natural athlete, even if you’re really fat.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: For the most part, yeah. There are some extra pounds lying around, but beneath those pounds are incredible muscles and conditioning

9:44	Comment From zack Are you surprised the pirates are going with Cole over Burnett? Is it really because of one bad start?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: For me, it’s a coin flip — Cole’s been about as good as Burnett for a while, and Burnett just had a bad game while Cole just had a good game. I haven’t looked at the numbers but it’s possible Cole is a slightly better matchup. Cynically, it looks like Hurdle just wants to not have to answer questions if Burnett were to struggle again, but there’s a good argument in favor of this decision. It’s not as obvious as some people might think, but it’s also not bad. Cole’s pretty great

9:45	Comment From Ben I saw a game in Oakland, their fans are pretty fun.

9:45	Comment From Brady How did you watch a game when you were covering the Mariners for LOL? Were there a series of specific things that you keep track of? How were you able to do that AND enjoy the game? I find that I have trouble doing both.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Well thankfully with the Mariners I never had to worry about whether or not I would enjoy the game

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: I always kept a physical or electronic notepad nearby to jot things down I could re-visit later on. It was tricky sometimes to balance observation and enjoyment, but I had a great time with the no-hitter and the Felix perfect game, and those were basically the only two moments ever, so it could’ve been worse

9:47	Comment From Sailor Stroud Your thoughts on Epstein’s moves with the Cubs? Do you think they can contend within two-four years or so?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I like what he’s done, I like what he’s doing, and they should contend in 2015

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be interesting to see how high they go bidding for Girardi, but it’s not like I can give that any analysis

9:48	Comment From zack Regarding Dan Uggle, has any team that won their division ever left their highest paid player off the roster?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: 2010 Giants left off Barry Zito

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: They also might as well have left off Aaron Rowand, but, anyway

9:50	Comment From Gary The Cardinals fans did do a fair number of Pittsburgh-style “AAAAAAJJJJJJ AAAAAAAAJJJJJJJJJ” chants at the beginning of game one, but yeah, generally a fairly reserved volume fanbase relative to some of the newer playoff teams.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Still capable of losing their minds, like in the recent World Series

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I really wonder to what extent the Pittsburgh one-game playoff crowd influenced other crowds around baseball. “Hey, this can be fun out here”

9:51	Comment From Tom Cards fans would probably be better if we didn’t keep getting the afternoon games.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Pittsburgh doesn’t mind

9:51	Comment From Pete So are the Braves happy with their decision to have Elliot Johnson on the postseason roster over Dan Uggla?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Well, no, probably not, but I don’t think the Braves are happy about much right now

9:52	Comment From tylersnotes if the replay/challenge system were in place this postseason, how different are the games we’ve seen so far? Lots of challengable plays that could have been overturned, but not sure that any of them win or lose a game for a team.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately I haven’t kept close track, but I imagine the biggest play was the Berry stolen base last night. Rays’ win expectancy dropped to 36%, where it would’ve been 54% had Berry been called out. But Berry ultimately didn’t score and the Rays won, so, yeah

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think things would look meaningfully different, but that doesn’t mean the system shouldn’t be in place five years ago

9:54	Comment From zack Note sure if Price gritty enough for AZ

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: seems to have the right opinion of nerds

9:54	Comment From Guest Any match between the Cardinals and either Drew or Ellsbury? Lot of money coming off the books in St. Louis and SS/CF are areas where improvement is possible

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Drew would make sense, Ellsbury probably wouldn’t.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Jay seems like a straight up league-average player or so, and the Cardinals aren’t going to pursue Ellsbury to the level at which he’s going to sign

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Taveras might still be able to handle CF, and then there’s some Craig/Adams flexibility

9:57	Comment From Guest Top 3 parks you would like to attend a postseason game at?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Oakland, Pittsburgh, Seattle

9:57	Comment From Terrible Ted Just wait till the Jays make the playoffs and there are 50,000 people yelling…inside.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Tampa Bay is also inside

9:58	Comment From Gary How about TBS refusing to acknowledge that Wacha was throwing curveballs last night? Pretty entertaining and interesting to see him bust out a pitch he barely used during the regular season.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 14 curves yesterday. Previous season high: 9

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: hadn’t thrown more than 7 since August 10

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: got him nine strikes, three whiffs…

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like it improved his fastball