Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/13/17

January 13, 2017

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: All right, everybody, let’s baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’m fresh off two and a half weeks away, and I’m writing to you with a fever, but let’s see how this goes anyhow!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, I forgot. Hello friends!

9:08	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08	Wayne : If Atlanta has a dreadful 1st half do they consider moving any core pieces like Freeman, Teheran, or Ender?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think three months of baseball would derail their plan to try to get sustainably good quick. It would kind of depend on what has been causing them to struggle, but I can’t really see them shedding

9:09	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: How often did you think about Mike Trout while on vacation?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Not once

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: but thanks to hostel wifi, I did end up thinking about Yovani Gallardo while on vacation, which was unfortunate

9:10	biffyclyro: What was the best food you ate on vacation?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.mountainhouse.com/m/product/chicken-and-dumplings.html

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’m only kind of kidding

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: If you ever go backpacking and like to take freeze-dried meals, that’s easily — easily — my favorite

9:11	Mike: Who do you think has the bigger downside? Dozier regression to mean or DeLeon not living up to expectations and/or injury?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Dozier has averaged 4 WAR a year over the last four seasons. He’s a really good player. De Leon is a pitching prospect with health questions. It’s easily De Leon, which is among the reasons why him alone hasn’t been sufficient to swing an exchange

9:12	Erik: We finally got a Mike Trout trade while you were gone! Did the Expos overpay to get him?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It was a bold maneuver to surrender their franchise rights

9:13	Joe: Does adding Colby Rasmus and Mallex Smith to a team that already has Kevin Kiermaier give the Rays the best defensive outfield in the game?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not an open-and-shut case, not with what the Mariners have put together, but when the Rays field those three players their defense will be top 3 or 4

9:14	Jonathan: How was Patagonia?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The first time, we got stupidly lucky with the weather. This second time, we got stupidly lucky with the weather. We are very lucky and spoiled people.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: You have to earn your way to get all the way down there, but I can’t recommend it enough for any outdoors enthusiasts

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: And the Atacama was pretty OK too

9:15	CamdenWarehouse: Why is talking to Dipoto tiring?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s exhausting just to try to keep up

9:17	LudeBurger: Good tidings, Jeff! Welcome back

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I cannot recommend enough getting home from a vacation late on a Thursday.

9:17	Zonk: Can you make any sense out of the Ian Desmond signing? What move would cause you to think “Oh, now I get it?”

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: The easiest thing would just be moving an outfielder so Desmond slides in there, but the main confusion is the suggestion the Rockies are going to keep him tied to 1B. If Desmond ends up an everyday player who’s just constantly moving around, like Ben Zobrist, that’s creative and not so bad

9:20	Andrew: Who is the best Jeff in MLB?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: all-time, presumably Bagwell, but at present, it’s either Luhnow or Samardzija

9:21	Kevin: What are your thoughts on the prospects the Braves received in the Mallex trade?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have any thoughts on Burrows, except that as a strikeout-heavy minor-league reliever, he could move fast

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Gohara is clearly the more exciting get, but as Ken Rosenthal pointed out, there are questions about his shoulder, and he’s never even thrown 70 innings in a minor-league season. The stuff is there, but Gohara is pretty damn raw, and he’s years off, if he even ever arrives

9:23	Tj: Hey Jeff thanks for the chat! Who would you take this year from a pure production standpoint, Matt Harvey or Masahiro Tanaka?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka

9:24	Cody: What do you think of the recent Mariners moves? Do you think they can contend with Houston for the AL West?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mariners right now are probably the No. 1 AL wild-card team. I don’t exactly understand the Gallardo move, but when you look at the roster overall, there’s greatly improved depth and defense. I liked the Smyly get. I see the Astros as still a few games superior, but that difference would be pretty easy to erase, even just based on luck alone

9:26	Robbie: If Robbie Ray takes even a moderate step forward this year, do you think he becomes one of the most interesting pitchers in the NL? The heat, slider, and consequent strikeouts from the left side make me giddy

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Already, Ray just ranked fifth in baseball in strikeout rate. He’s one of the more interesting pitchers in the NL today. If he gets better, he could be an ace

9:27	Roadhog: Does the Jairo Garcia signing allow the A’s to trade some pitching? Liam Hendriks+ for Raimel Tapia is trading from depth for both teams.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Come back in July. Right now the A’s aren’t interested in reducing their own pitching depth

9:28	Weezy: Hi Jeff, welcome back! Are you a picture taker when you travel? Or prefer to “live in the moment” more?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I get my pictures for the sake of preserving memories, but my girlfriend is the one with actual know-how, and a nice camera. Her pictures are way way better

9:29	jon: Maddon and Hoyer both want Schwarber to lead off, at least vs RHP. Good idea/bad idea?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Probably the most sensible idea, unless Heyward bounces way back. The Cubs love Schwarber’s ability to consistently work a great at-bat, and he’s going to get on base a ton

9:32	Graver: Did you know that 251 Million years ago, 95% of life on Earth became extinct?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Most people should!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: “the Great Dying” is a wonderful term

9:34	Mike: If I am the Dodgers why not wait for 1/3 (4 of 12 months under contract) of Dozier’s surplus value to expire and pick him up at a better price at the deadline. Could cost less than DeLeon.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Prices only go up during the season, not down, and by then the Twins might be reluctant to move Dozier anyway. Plus there could be other suitors. For now, the 2B market is stagnant

9:35	Werner Herzog: Are you able to enjoy vacation all the way through to its conclusion or towards the end of it do you allow the dread of returning to everyday life to creep in?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: For ordinary weekends, the second half of Sunday is usually spent thinking somewhat about returning to work. But on real vacations, I’m mostly able to ignore this stuff. Especially vacations with inconsistent or non-existent wifi

9:36	Buff: Read a piece by Dylan Svoboda in BP Milwaukee yesterday arguing that the Brewers should trade Junior Guerra — inevitable regression, won’t be around when the Brewers get good. Agreed or not? Over/under that he’s gone at least by trade decline?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s an urgency. A good trade needs for there to be a market. Guerra could only improve his own market by demonstrating that he’s for real. The Brewers have time here

9:38	Erik: Are the Mariners significantly better than when you left for vacation? Seems like a lot of meaningless tweaks and a big overpay for a 4th starter.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I like Smyly, and I like Dyson. They didn’t pick up much in the way of long-term surplus value, and I don’t think they got significantly better, but I do think they got better. That outfield could be pretty strong

9:39	Zonk: Is it me, or is there a huge dearth of movement/news right now in baseball? It’s me, right?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Players and teams avoiding arbitration doesn’t do it for you?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: We’re in the offseason dead zone. For the players remaining, teams are just waiting them out, looking for one of them to get desperate to find a new home

9:40	ManBearPuig: How much of Mike Trout’s value is based on his position? If he were moved to a corner outfield spot, how much WAR would he lose?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: The way this works is that, in theory, Trout wouldn’t lose any WAR, because the position change would be offset by a better defensive performance

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: In reality, Trout would lose some of his shine if he were a LF/RF. But he’d still be the best player in the world

9:41	CarrotJuice: Welcome back Jeff! Would a trade centered around Baez and De Leon make sense for both teams?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Baez has five years of control and a mega-high ceiling. The Dodgers would need to add on

9:43	LudeBurger: Jeff, how good of grades in defense-related tools (and offense-related ones too if it matters) would a prospect need in order to be a left-handed fielding/throwing SS, 3B, 2B, or C?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: The first one would have to be elite. Like Andrelton Simmons-level good. So good you couldn’t ignore him. After that, the bar would get progressively lower

9:45	Logan: Do you think Coppy will do something “big” eventually? In terms of improving the MLB team by trading prospects.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: So many of their top prospects are pitchers with massive question marks. For the time being, I think the Braves like those guys more than other teams do

9:46	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why weren’t the SEA-ATL and SEA-TB deals a three-way trade?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: It effectively was a three-way trade, but the key was just Smith, and maybe Dipoto found it simpler to conduct the talks separately

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: You never know how the Braves and Rays might’ve interacted if they were brought to the same table

9:48	Lord above : Watching MLB network yesterday cause why not and the extent to which the talking heads seem to understand Chris carters lack of value but not mark trumbos baffles me. How much better is trumbo really? Am I missing something?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Trumbo gives you a little more in terms of defense and contact, so he is the better player. But, yes, the difference has probably been exaggerated. Trumbo should not be getting $50m+ while Carter struggles to find a home

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay, got a phone call

9:52	Q-Ball: Do you think the Mariners would like to un-do the Vogelbach/Monty trade? Wouldn’t they be better off with Monty in the ‘pen, and just sign one of the bats available, like Napoli or Carter?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Montgomery isn’t actually all that good, and they are believers in Vogelbach’s bat. I don’t think it’s something they’d badly want to undo. But they probably also didn’t foresee the way this market would play out. There are half-decent bats everywhere, just looking for homes

9:53	Graver: Did you know that humans have explored less than 5% of the Ocean?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Not specifically, but, generally, yes

9:54	Rb: Quintana straight up for meadows and glansnow? Who says no?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the White Sox feel about Glasnow, since he has a bunch of unanswered questions, but they did take the similar Giolito. So there’s precedent. I think you have the bones of a deal here