Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/13/17

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: All right, everybody, let’s baseball chat

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I’m fresh off two and a half weeks away, and I’m writing to you with a fever, but let’s see how this goes anyhow!

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Oh, I forgot. Hello friends!

9:08
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08
Wayne : If Atlanta has a dreadful 1st half do they consider moving any core pieces like Freeman, Teheran, or Ender?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think three months of baseball would derail their plan to try to get sustainably good quick. It would kind of depend on what has been causing them to struggle, but I can’t really see them shedding

9:09
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: How often did you think about Mike Trout while on vacation?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Not once

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: but thanks to hostel wifi, I did end up thinking about Yovani Gallardo while on vacation, which was unfortunate

9:10
biffyclyro: What was the best food you ate on vacation?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I’m only kind of kidding

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: If you ever go backpacking and like to take freeze-dried meals, that’s easily — easily — my favorite

9:11
Mike: Who do you think has the bigger downside? Dozier regression to mean or DeLeon not living up to expectations and/or injury?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Dozier has averaged 4 WAR a year over the last four seasons. He’s a really good player. De Leon is a pitching prospect with health questions. It’s easily De Leon, which is among the reasons why him alone hasn’t been sufficient to swing an exchange

9:12
Erik: We finally got a Mike Trout trade while you were gone! Did the Expos overpay to get him?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: It was a bold maneuver to surrender their franchise rights

9:13
Joe: Does adding Colby Rasmus and Mallex Smith to a team that already has Kevin Kiermaier give the Rays the best defensive outfield in the game?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not an open-and-shut case, not with what the Mariners have put together, but when the Rays field those three players their defense will be top 3 or 4

9:14
Jonathan: How was Patagonia?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: The first time, we got stupidly lucky with the weather. This second time, we got stupidly lucky with the weather. We are very lucky and spoiled people.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: You have to earn your way to get all the way down there, but I can’t recommend it enough for any outdoors enthusiasts

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: And the Atacama was pretty OK too

9:15
CamdenWarehouse: Why is talking to Dipoto tiring?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s exhausting just to try to keep up

9:17
LudeBurger: Good tidings, Jeff! Welcome back

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I cannot recommend enough getting home from a vacation late on a Thursday.

9:17
Zonk: Can you make any sense out of the Ian Desmond signing? What move would cause you to think “Oh, now I get it?”

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: The easiest thing would just be moving an outfielder so Desmond slides in there, but the main confusion is the suggestion the Rockies are going to keep him tied to 1B. If Desmond ends up an everyday player who’s just constantly moving around, like Ben Zobrist, that’s creative and not so bad

9:20
Andrew: Who is the best Jeff in MLB?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: all-time, presumably Bagwell, but at present, it’s either Luhnow or Samardzija

9:21
Kevin: What are your thoughts on the prospects the Braves received in the Mallex trade?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have any thoughts on Burrows, except that as a strikeout-heavy minor-league reliever, he could move fast

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Gohara is clearly the more exciting get, but as Ken Rosenthal pointed out, there are questions about his shoulder, and he’s never even thrown 70 innings in a minor-league season. The stuff is there, but Gohara is pretty damn raw, and he’s years off, if he even ever arrives

9:23
Tj: Hey Jeff thanks for the chat! Who would you take this year from a pure production standpoint, Matt Harvey or Masahiro Tanaka?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka

9:24
Cody: What do you think of the recent Mariners moves? Do you think they can contend with Houston for the AL West?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mariners right now are probably the No. 1 AL wild-card team. I don’t exactly understand the Gallardo move, but when you look at the roster overall, there’s greatly improved depth and defense. I liked the Smyly get. I see the Astros as still a few games superior, but that difference would be pretty easy to erase, even just based on luck alone

9:26
Robbie: If Robbie Ray takes even a moderate step forward this year, do you think he becomes one of the most interesting pitchers in the NL? The heat, slider, and consequent strikeouts from the left side make me giddy

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Already, Ray just ranked fifth in baseball in strikeout rate. He’s one of the more interesting pitchers in the NL today. If he gets better, he could be an ace

9:27
Roadhog: Does the Jairo Garcia signing allow the A’s to trade some pitching? Liam Hendriks+ for Raimel Tapia is trading from depth for both teams.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Come back in July. Right now the A’s aren’t interested in reducing their own pitching depth

9:28
Weezy: Hi Jeff, welcome back! Are you a picture taker when you travel? Or prefer to “live in the moment” more?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I get my pictures for the sake of preserving memories, but my girlfriend is the one with actual know-how, and a nice camera. Her pictures are way way better

9:29
jon: Maddon and Hoyer both want Schwarber to lead off, at least vs RHP. Good idea/bad idea?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Probably the most sensible idea, unless Heyward bounces way back. The Cubs love Schwarber’s ability to consistently work a great at-bat, and he’s going to get on base a ton

9:32
Graver: Did you know that 251 Million years ago, 95% of life on Earth became extinct?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Most people should!

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: “the Great Dying” is a wonderful term

9:34
Mike: If I am the Dodgers why not wait for 1/3 (4 of 12 months under contract) of Dozier’s surplus value to expire and pick him up at a better price at the deadline. Could cost less than DeLeon.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Prices only go up during the season, not down, and by then the Twins might be reluctant to move Dozier anyway. Plus there could be other suitors. For now, the 2B market is stagnant

9:35
Werner Herzog: Are you able to enjoy vacation all the way through to its conclusion or towards the end of it do you allow the dread of returning to everyday life to creep in?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: For ordinary weekends, the second half of Sunday is usually spent thinking somewhat about returning to work. But on real vacations, I’m mostly able to ignore this stuff. Especially vacations with inconsistent or non-existent wifi

9:36
Buff: Read a piece by Dylan Svoboda in BP Milwaukee yesterday arguing that the Brewers should trade Junior Guerra — inevitable regression, won’t be around when the Brewers get good. Agreed or not? Over/under that he’s gone at least by trade decline?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s an urgency. A good trade needs for there to be a market. Guerra could only improve his own market by demonstrating that he’s for real. The Brewers have time here

9:38
Erik: Are the Mariners significantly better than when you left for vacation? Seems like a lot of meaningless tweaks and a big overpay for a 4th starter.

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I like Smyly, and I like Dyson. They didn’t pick up much in the way of long-term surplus value, and I don’t think they got *significantly* better, but I do think they got better. That outfield could be pretty strong

9:39
Zonk: Is it me, or is there a huge dearth of movement/news right now in baseball? It’s me, right?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Players and teams avoiding arbitration doesn’t do it for you?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: We’re in the offseason dead zone. For the players remaining, teams are just waiting them out, looking for one of them to get desperate to find a new home

9:40
ManBearPuig: How much of Mike Trout’s value is based on his position? If he were moved to a corner outfield spot, how much WAR would he lose?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: The way this works is that, in theory, Trout wouldn’t lose any WAR, because the position change would be offset by a better defensive performance

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: In reality, Trout would lose some of his shine if he were a LF/RF. But he’d still be the best player in the world

9:41
CarrotJuice: Welcome back Jeff! Would a trade centered around Baez and De Leon make sense for both teams?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Baez has five years of control and a mega-high ceiling. The Dodgers would need to add on

9:43
LudeBurger: Jeff, how good of grades in defense-related tools (and offense-related ones too if it matters) would a prospect need in order to be a left-handed fielding/throwing SS, 3B, 2B, or C?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: The first one would have to be elite. Like Andrelton Simmons-level good. So good you couldn’t ignore him. After that, the bar would get progressively lower

9:45
Logan: Do you think Coppy will do something “big” eventually? In terms of improving the MLB team by trading prospects.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: So many of their top prospects are pitchers with massive question marks. For the time being, I think the Braves like those guys more than other teams do

9:46
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why weren’t the SEA-ATL and SEA-TB deals a three-way trade?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: It effectively was a three-way trade, but the key was just Smith, and maybe Dipoto found it simpler to conduct the talks separately

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: You never know how the Braves and Rays might’ve interacted if they were brought to the same table

9:48
Lord above : Watching MLB network yesterday cause why not and the extent to which the talking heads seem to understand Chris carters lack of value but not mark trumbos baffles me. How much better is trumbo really? Am I missing something?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Trumbo gives you a little more in terms of defense and contact, so he is the better player. But, yes, the difference has probably been exaggerated. Trumbo should not be getting $50m+ while Carter struggles to find a home

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay, got a phone call

9:52
Q-Ball: Do you think the Mariners would like to un-do the Vogelbach/Monty trade? Wouldn’t they be better off with Monty in the ‘pen, and just sign one of the bats available, like Napoli or Carter?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Montgomery isn’t actually all that good, and they are believers in Vogelbach’s bat. I don’t think it’s something they’d badly want to undo. But they probably also didn’t foresee the way this market would play out. There are half-decent bats everywhere, just looking for homes

9:53
Graver: Did you know that humans have explored less than 5% of the Ocean?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Not specifically, but, generally, yes

9:54
Rb: Quintana straight up for meadows and glansnow? Who says no?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the White Sox feel about Glasnow, since he has a bunch of unanswered questions, but they did take the similar Giolito. So there’s precedent. I think you have the bones of a deal here

9:56
D: So now that the offseason is so deep, how do we view a lot of the moves that seemed likely to happen at the beginning of the off season? For example, the Dodgers trading one of McCarthy/Kazmir, and Dodgers trading for a 2B. Do we see these types of deals as less likely? Or is this off season unraveling slower than most?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: A little less likely, but if the Dodgers have demonstrated anything, it’s that they can pull off a flurry of moves at a moment’s notice

9:56
NatsFan: Instagraphs idea: Quantify what percentage of trades this offseason involved the Mariners, what percentage of articles written by Fangraphs this offseason involved the mariners, and what percentage of Fangraphs readers would have wasted away from boredom after this weak excuse for an offseason if not for the mariners

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Give Jerry Dipoto one thing: like his moves or not, he makes an awful lot of them, which earns him an A on the entertainment scale. His hyperactivity might be a little out of control, but it’s never boring

9:59
Pip: Espn has the Cub’s, Met’s, and Red Sox rotations ahead of the Nationals. Largely in part to the “injury risk” they have. Don’t all those club’s especially the Mets have just as much risk? There’s no reason to believe Strausburg and Ross will be effected by there injuries next year (not to say they can’t be injured again). There is a chance though that Matt Harvey may never be the same again, plus Zach Wheeler hasn’t pitched in over two years.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: First of all, the rankings don’t really matter — the Nationals have a good rotation, full stop. But the risk is legitimate: after Scherzer, Strasburg and Ross are probably their best two starters, and they both just dealt with injuries. That’s always been the best predictor of a future injury. And the Nationals have also subtracted from their own supporting depth

10:02
mtsw: What would be a reasonable price for the Orioles to bring Mark Trumbo back on?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Something like 3/$30m, maybe. Less than what Trumbo will actually get

10:03
Dan: Still buying on Hosmer as a top 10 first basemen?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: What do you mean “still buying”?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Am I a big Eric Hosmer fan?

10:04
Outta my way, Gyorkass: What’s the optimal strategy for a team like the Brewers, who are a year+ beyond initiating a rebuild – basically stand pat, take high upside FA flyers, and just let the player development machine do its thing? Obviously, it makes sense to flip a Braun or Garza if someone comes up and makes them a good offer, but does it also make sense to actively try to trade guys like Guerra who might only be medium-term Brewers?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers have more or less been doing everything optimally. I love how their rebuild has gone. They’re still not close, but you can see how they could field a respectable club as soon as 2017. There should be any urgency to further subtract; they don’t have any more assets like Lucroy or Gomez. I like the upside shots they’ve taken

10:05
Jeff: Any prediction as to which team Jose Quintana will start the season with?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be boring and say the White Sox

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: and then he’ll be at the top of the market in July

10:05
Jack: Will there be a more boring team in 2017 than the Oakland A’s?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Their rotation, at least, could be exciting. The Padres look boring and dreadful

10:06
Zonk: I am travelling to Iceland in May. The whole country is a volcano! You been?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Not yet but it feels inevitable

10:06
CamdenWarehouse: Do you expect another gear from Edwin Diaz this year?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Same gear

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: It was an awfully good gear

10:07
Curtis: Can Michael Feliz pull an Aaron Sanchez in the next couple of years?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I like Feliz a lot, and he’s gone by underappreciated, but the Sanchez turns are the exceptions, not the norm

10:08
Terry: Can Jurickson Profar be similar to Dustin Pedroia?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Pedroia runs half the strikeout rate. There’s still that Profar upside and his contact rates have been strong, but I haven’t seen enough life in the bat. Profar’s stock is way down for now

10:09
Moltar: Arbitration avoidance season! The best part of the year!!

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: This might be what Jon Heyman actually believes

10:09
Hank: Robert Gsellman or Lucas Giolito and why?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Giolito because he’s better

10:10
Bob Pollard: Which is least interesting to you: fantasy baseball questions or the breathless tweeting of arbitration numbers?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t actually answer this because I’ve never once been interested in either

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I guess the latter leaves the door open to make a few jokes. There’s no joking about fantasy baseball questions

10:11
Ed in Iowa: Welcome back! Hope you had a lovely trip….. Given their apparently great start to their rebuild do you suppose the White Sox would soften their stance about not trading with the Cubs, i.e. Quintana to the Cubs is something Cubs fans could at least daydream about?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Clearly I don’t think it’s something the White Sox would rule out — it would be stupid for them to ever rule out any potential suitor — but I don’t even see the Cubs as being the best match, so Quintana in Wrigley feels unlikely

10:13
Weezy: Is there research on a typical number of starts for starters outside the opening day rotation, particularly controlling for “depth”? Another way of putting this: how many starts will go to bad (and unexpected) pitchers for the Mariners? I am curious of how much the Mariners’ FO is mentally prepared to brace for Chris Heston starts in June/July.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Last I checked, I think it was something like 30 or 32 starts

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Basically, for the average rotation, a whole effective rotation slot will end up going to starters not in the opening-day fivesome

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: The error bars, of course, are big, but pretty much every team understands it’s likely to need at least eight starters or so over the course of six or seven months

10:14
PB&Js: Hey Jeff, would the Dodgers be better served in terms of $/WAR by keeping De Leon and starting Austin Barnes at 2b than trading for Dozier? Seems it could be close on overall WAR as well, assuming a little regression from Dozier and met expectations for the other two.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers really like Barnes as a catcher, so I don’t think they want to move him off the position

10:15
Vanilla extract: Lance McCullers in 2017. Discuss.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: He’s kind of like Erik Bedard. Good when he pitches, but he’ll probably never pitch efficiently, and he’s likely to continue to miss a handful of turns

10:16
Weezy: Feel better, Jeff. Post travel sickness is the worst.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not too broken up about it — it held off for the entire vacation. I didn’t start to feel sick at all until I was packing up to leave Chile. Could’ve been worse!

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Plus, the both of us are now identically sick, which means a lot of weekend soup. Big fan of weekend soups

10:18
Q-Ball: Was baseball waiting for Jeff Sullivan before making any news? You picked a good time to be out, because news has been really slow lately.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve taken three big trips since joining FanGraphs. During the first one, pretty much everything happened, and Dave hasn’t let me forget about that. So I’ve been guilted into only looking to take vacations in January. It is the best time to go off the grid, because the grid itself slips into hibernation

10:21
Outta my way, Gyorkass: What’s the most likely way that SP’s of Mussina or Schilling’s caliber make it to the Hall? A year 15 “WTF were we thinking” revelation? Wholesale structural voting rules change? A purge of voters like Murray Chass? Manual addition after the fact, after their 15 years has passed?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Mussina surged last year from 24% to 43%, and this year, according to the early voting, he’ll surge again. So now Mussina looks like a safe bet to make it in a year or three, once his support reaches a critical mass

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: You get the voter pool improving, and you also get certain player focus. There’s been so much focus on Raines, and so much focus on Edgar. They’re surging as a consequence. There’ll be similar focus on Mussina, as there already has been to some extent. Voters read what’s out there, and Mussina has a very strong case

10:24
Paul: Is it at the point that even if Markakis is having a nice first half for the Braves that they won’t be able to trade him? Pretty clear he’s a bad player with bad contract.

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not at all convinced the Braves would want to trade him

10:24
guitar_davey: Please tell me the Blue Jays do *something* to fix that dumpster fire of an outfield!

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: They’re patient, not stupid

10:26
James: Welcome back, Jeff! What would you consider a reasonable baseline for Max Kepler this season? .275/.350/.425 with 20-25 HRs, 80 RBIs and 12-15 SBs seems reasonable, but is he already in position to exceed those?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Might be overselling the BA/OBP, and underselling the SLG. These days it’s awfully difficult to bat .275, but Kepler should be at least a league-average regular

10:26
Matt: Enjoyed your first EW pod as co host. You might have been the only person that could have been a decent replacement for Sam. Looking forward to seeing how the show evolves.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: You and me both. I have no idea how things are going to develop, because I’ve never done anything like this, but Ben is fantastic, and quite easy to talk to. I’m happy to have the first one finished, because I felt some mounting anxiety. That and the whole being sick thing

10:27
20longyears: In 2008, Athletics 2nd baseman Mark Ellis hit 9 more IFFB than extra base hits over 500 plate appearances. I learned this because I stumbled upon an article you wrote about Vernon Wells and I felt inspired to do research. So thank you.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I live to give

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Give me a second to do some research here…

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, so, last year, Freddie Freeman was the league leader in one direction, with 74 more extra-base hits than infield flies

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Billy Burns was the leader in the other direction, with two more infield flies than extra-base hits

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Travis d’Arnaud was right behind him, at +1

10:31
Q-Ball: The Cubs did alot of pitching “Sign and Flips” in their rebuild, netting quality assets in return (like Jake Arrieta). Do you see anyone pursuing a similar strategy?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Braves be similarly active

10:32
Tengopreguntas: Do you put more/less/equal weight in second half stats? It could be a sign that a team is moving foward, facing worse competition as younger players get auditions, or mean nothing at all.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Almost equal. Second-half stats should get *slightly* more weight than first-half stats, but it really depends on the player/team/situation. Best to look at the whole season on balance

10:33
Greg: Lets say your team is facing the dodgers for a 3 game set and Kershaw is on the mound in game 1. How many pitches should the leadoff hitter be happy with fouling off, given that he knows he would be struck out at the last pitch of the at bat? Basically what is the value of 1 out compared to getting an ace pitcher off the mound slightly earlier?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: 15?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to say 15

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: These days there’s really so little benefit to getting into another team’s bullpen a little faster, but you could at least make Clayton Kershaw annoyed

10:36
mtsw: Adam Jones has had remarkably similar production the last three seasons, but his value has tanked thanks to the overall offensive environment going up. Is that a reason to be optimistic about him going forward? Is it possible a player like Jones (very aggressive, bad plate discipline) is simply less affected by the overall offensive environment?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: So Jones went from being 17% better than average to being 9% better than average, to being 4% worse than average

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really see how this could be spun into a positive thing

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: The offensive environment has changed because baseballs have gone for home runs more. Jones has not hit for more home runs. That’s more bad than good

10:37
CamdenWarehouse: How about Trout now getting to regularly see Gallardo?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Let me just look something up real quick —

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Yep, Trout has a four-digit OPS against Gallardo in his career

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: That shouldn’t be surprising

10:38
EvanC: I know these two are related, but is a GM’s primary job to field a winning team or to make money for the team?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Every GM wants to build a winner. It’s an addiction. They have to worry about the money, but not as much as the owners. The owners want to make a profit, and the GMs want to win, and thankfully those two tend to have a lot of overlap

10:39
Roger: Do you think Folty will continue to improve for the Braves?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:39
Ro Laren: what’s your favorite ALDS of all time?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Easiest question I’ve ever answered!

10:40
dago: Did your Spanish language skills improve on the trip?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Fairly dramatically, from start to finish. There’s nothing quite like immersion. This is now three big somewhat recent trips I’ve taken to Spanish-speaking areas and it’s amazing how much comes back from classwork in middle and high school

10:41
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Was Patagonia everything you dreamed it would be?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: There’s still so much more to explore. I can’t believe how fortunate we’ve been to go twice, but we already have intentions on a third trip down the line

10:41
Rob: You think it’s more likely Quintana doesn’t get moved until July?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say…60/40? He could still get traded on any given day, and in July there could be other good pitchers available, but the longer he’s with the White Sox the lower the chances are of an offseason move

10:44
Yours Truly: Thinking about Yovanni Gallardo is something Orioles fans never enjoyed… now I am thinking about him… oi..

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: It’s kind of crazy to me that in 2009, Gallardo had the same strikeout rate as Clayton Kershaw, and in 2016 Gallardo had the same strikeout rate as Josh Tomlin

10:44
Cheeseball: Highest altitude reached while on vacation? Ayahuasca doesn’t count.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Right around 15,000 feet in the altiplano. Altitude headaches are miserable!

10:45
Beats by Dre: Who do you see having the better offensive year next season and beyond? Nomar Mazara or Kyle Schwarber?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber, pretty easily

10:46
Geoff: With Smyly gone, who do you like best to fill out the fifth spot in the Rays’ rotation? Ramirez, Andriese or Whitley?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Andriese first, but they’ll all get starts

10:46
Weezy: how are you feeling about your new role as daily podcaster?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully it’ll be thrice-weekly, instead of daily. It is exciting, though, because podcasting allows for baseball coverage that’s a little different from how we tend to write on the site

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not that FanGraphs material is restrictive, but there’s a little less room for humor or streams of consciousness

10:48
Grosso: Are Kinsler & Forsythe actual options for the Dodgers? Both of their teams seem like they plan on contending with them.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Kinsler is much of an option

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Forsythe is the more likely of the two

10:48
Maverik312: I live in a FG bubble and had not previously heard of EW. Now, I am stoked.

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I should note that this won’t have any effect on Carson’s podcasts. Those will continue to live and exist as they do, with EW sliding in to offer more consistent actual baseball commentary

10:50
Justino: How long of a leash does Schwarber get vs LHP, given CHC’s robust 25 man?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Cubs think Schwarber can’t hit lefties, and if anyone will be protected at first, it could be Heyward. So Schwarber will get his chances

10:51
chuff: are you hanging out more with Dave’s dog now

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t actually seen Dave in Bend yet since the road trip, but that’ll change

10:52
Hank: Do you feel that Alex Bregman is going to be a star in the Correa/Seager vein or more of an average regular?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: There’s so much space there in the in-between. I think Bregman will occupy said in-between

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: A pretty consistent 3- or 4-win player. There was no way the Astros were going to trade him this winter

10:54
Andy: Rox bought out 2 Arenado arb years. $17M+ for 2018. Seem high given still has ’19?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Arenado is a Super Two guy so his arb salaries were always going to be inflated. He’s not cheap anymore, but he’s also one of the better third basemen around, so the Rockies aren’t about to lose any sleep

10:55
Fuggedaboutit: Hey Jeff, on behalf of Yankee fans everywhere – FUCK YOU!

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: That wasn’t very nice

10:55
12 to 6: Does Fangraphs have an app for android? If not, is one in the works?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: We once had an app. We no longer have an app

10:55
Brandon M: Have you ever backpacked eagle creek trail on the Columbia River Gorge?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t done it from start to finish, but I’ve hiked most of it over the years. It’s a beautiful area, but it can also be a crowded area, and there are so many other sparsely-populated areas around here to explore

10:57
Andrew: Arenado has gotta be a poster child for waiting past super-2 cutoff, right? He’s gonna get close to $25m in his last year of arbitration.

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: He was also just worth $41 million, a year after being worth $36 million. Every team is aware of the Super Two cutoff, but sometimes a player just forces his own way

10:58
CamdenWarehouse: I’m really confused – why the hate from Yankee fans?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. I guess I did have a Yankees Suck t-shirt when I was in sixth or seventh grade

10:59
Kristen: What kind of contract does Lucroy get after the season? Just wondering if TEX should/will be able to re-sign him.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be signing around the same time that Russell Martin did, and there are a lot of skillset similarities. So you begin by thinking around 5/$82m

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: The Rangers keep saying that money is an issue for them, so I don’t know if they’ll be able to keep Lucroy around. Texas’ future is a little bit messy

11:01
Peli: Hey Jeff, good luck with the new podcast! Sorry if you already answered this, but where do you stand on Drew Smyly? Do you think he’ll ever turn those sexy K/BB numbers into a 4 or 5+ win season?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that’s his realistic upside — I think the Mariners want for him to be about a 3-win pitcher, and I think that’s easily within his reach for the season ahead

11:01
Alabama: 2016 Sean Rodriguez. Real or Fluke?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: I think mostly real

11:02
Neil: Which rookie pitcher has biggest impact in 2017?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Alex Reyes?

11:03
Oggy: While it’s certainly true that there will be more buyers for Dozier at the deadline, isn’t there also the potential for there to be more 2B available because there will be more sellers? I’d think his value would be less because you could buy another suitable replacement at a lesser price, plus he’d be that much closer to FA.

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: There could be other players available, but Dozier is likely to be the best potentially available 2B. Maybe Kinsler would be available, but I expect the Tigers to be in the hunt. So then you’d be looking at…Forsythe? Cesar Hernandez? And teams always want to pick from the top of the crop

11:04
Ben: 1995 ALDS

11:04
CamdenWarehouse: oh it was about the ALDS from 1995

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Oh right

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: And as we all know, ever since that ALDS, the Yankees haven’t recovered

11:05
Mike in Raleigh: Did Plouffe improve the A’s

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Not really

11:05
mtsw: Do arbitration raises take into account park factors? Or will Arrenado get paid like he was a guy hitting 40 HR without reference to Coors?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone has some understanding that Coors is a different beast, but arbitration continues to be remarkably primitive

11:07
Andrew: Who is going to overpay for Lucroy in 2018? It’s going to be an overpay, right?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: The Braves?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Braves

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Or maybe the Nationals, depending on how 2017 goes

11:08
Fuggedaboutit: Schwarber is a platoon DH. Discuss.

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Probably he is not, but this would be his 30th or 40th percentile outcome

11:09
Colt Holt: In response to top outfields, does BHam put the Reds near the top single handedly? Add in a near gold glove to Duvall and whoever fills in Right?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, the Reds will also be up there, because Hamilton is one of the greatest defenders in the world

11:10
Moltar: Harper just got a huge raise in Arbitration to (a still ludicrously affordable) $13.5m. Largest raise ever going in to 3rd eligible year, far above his projections. Is this setting the table for a big extension? Or can the Nats still not afford it without heavy deferrals?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Nats understand there’s almost no way they keep Harper through free agency. His mind isn’t going to be changed at all by an arbitration-year raise

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling. As you can imagine, it takes a while to get caught up when you’re gone for two or three weeks

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/13/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Baltar
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Baltar

I accept your gracious apology for not getting to all the questions, but it’s OK. Mine were submitted late and were not all that good.
Have some great days!