Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/21/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: The baseball chat that interferes with my ability to write about this morning’s three-team exchange!

9:07

AJ: Odds harper ends up in LA?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Based on nothing — 40%?

9:08

Xolo: Did the Rangers just give Profar away?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t had a chance yet to fully analyze every aspect of this deal, but remember that we’re talking about two years of arb control over a non-elite player. Brock Burke is 22 years old and he was dominant in his limited Double-A action last summer. That’s not a bad centerpiece at all

9:11

Lunch Break: Am I crazy, or was the Charlie Morton trade a total steal for the Rays, especially given contracts worth similar amounts for guys like Kelly, Familia, and Lynn? Of that group Morton had the best K/9, BB/9, xFIP, not to mention versatility, etc.

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: It’s all about how much injury risk you’re comfortable with. Morton probably isn’t available to the Rays at that price had he not suffered late-season shoulder discomfort

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: Healthy Charlie Morton would be amazing for them, but they don’t know for sure whether they’ll be getting healthy Charlie Morton

9:14

Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Where do you think my namesake lands?  Where would he fit?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: For so many reasons, the best fit is probably just returning to Atlanta

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: And with Michael Brantley off the board, that’s a more realistic scenario now

9:16

Red: Hello, Jeff – want something way out of left field?

I’m looking at the 2006 draft right now because no life, and I noticed that the Diamondbacks picked two consecutive Cuban players in rounds 31 and 32, Osmany Masso (Pick #957, draft age 25) and Osbek Castillo (Pick #987, draft age 25).

I was under the impression that Cuban defectors are not draft eligible. What happened?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: I’m reading about this right now

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: This got interesting fast!

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: “SPORTS AGENT ACCUSED OF PAYING FOR SMUGGLING OF CUBAN PLAYERS”

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: “For the same reason, pitcher Francisely Bueno was bumped from the Cuban Olympic team that summer. He and Turino had been teammates on Havana’s powerful Industriales — the Cuban version of the Yankees.

They joined other suspended defection risks — Allen Guevara, Osmany Masso and Osbek Castillo — boarding Medina’s boat in the darkness off Matanzas.”

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe this could explain the answer?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: “Take for example the cases of Angels slugger Kendry Morales and highly regarded Atlanta Braves player Yunel Escobar — both smuggled from Cuba around the same time.

Morales landed an agent and obtained Dominican residency — approved by the baseball commissioner’s office — then negotiated a $10-million contract with a $3-million signing bonus. Escobar’s agent, however, made no effort to gain foreign residency for his client, who wound up relegated to the 2005 draft and signed for about $475,000.”

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: That’s probably as much time as I should spend on this today

9:22

T: What is the age where you say, “no thanks” to a free agent reliever? I’ll admit it. I’m an ageist with this Andrew Miller situation.

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a cutoff and neither should you

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Fernando Rodney is 41 years old and he still throws 94 miles per hour

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: It’s always always always a case-by-case basis

9:24

Jack: So the Jays gave Tulo all of the money that was left on his contract to go away so he wouldn’t be taking playing time away from Gurriel next year. Do you think they may do the same thing with Martin and/or Morales, whose presence on the team is blocking guys like Jansen, McGuire and Tellez? There’ve already been reports this offseason that they’d be willing to eat a lot of the money Martin’s owed in the final year of his contract to trade him

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: I think that Martin is a pretty obvious trade candidate, and he’ll end up somewhere in a semi-regular role

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: And then Smoak and Morales are of course also available, and moving either one would clear space for Tellez. Although it’s worth understanding Tellez wouldn’t be hurt by another few months in Triple-A

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Tulowitzki case was particular, in that Tulowitzki didn’t want to be a backup. The Jays finally just threw up their hands and cut bait

9:28

Roger: Seems like the Cardinals and Rays would match up well on something around Jose Martinez for Joey Wendle. Who’d need to add what to get it done?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re far off from fair as a one-for-one, but the Cardinals already have Kolten Wong, and the more I look at Martinez the more I see he’s a major defensive liability

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: As such I’m no longer convinced either team would be all that motivated

9:31

Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Is Brian Dozier cooked, or was that just an injury issue?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think he’s cooked, but he’s cooking

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I believe that the bone bruise made it more difficult for him to maintain his normal swing, but even at the best of times, Dozier needed to maximize his skillset to be an above-average hitter. It doesn’t take much to knock 5-10 homers back to the track

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: He’s declined a few straight seasons in terms of pulling balls in the air. I think he can be a league-average player in 2019, but it’s all coming to a close

9:34

Ross: How do the White Sox expect to get Harper or Machado to agree to come play for them if they don’t blow everyone else’s offer out of the water, which they apparently aren’t willing to do? Do they really think the opportunity to play the first four months of a 10-year contract with his brother-in-law is going to sway Machado?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: For all I know, it might come down to the White Sox maybe being the only team willing to go to, say, ten years

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I agree with you that it seems like the White Sox would have to come in over the top of everyone else. But this is at least an opportunity for them to feel things out with two premium free agents. I doubt they’d be Harper or Machado’s first choice, but the market might push one of them in Chicago’s direction, for any number of reasons

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Yankees don’t want to give a big enough guarantee. Maybe the Dodgers aren’t able to clear their outfield. Maybe the Phillies draw a line in the sand, and the White Sox go one or two years longer

9:37

Matt : Why do I have an impending sense of doom about the Phillies’ offseason plans not working at all?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Impatience, mostly

9:37

Tim: The Phillies can’t not come away with Harper or Machado after their owner’s “stupid money” comment, right?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Sure they can

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Now, they’d hear about it for months, obviously

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: But everything will ultimately be settled on the field, one way or another, and you can’t let angry sports fans drive front-office behavior

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: Guess what! Philadelphia’s default is angry, regardless of whether you try to appease them

9:40

JKD: Anibal Sanchez – you buy his 2018? If that’s who he is now, hard not to see this as a huge value for the Nats.

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t buy the ERA at all, but it’s easy for me to figure his new cutter allowed him to alleviate his home-run problem. His K-BB% has stayed pretty consistent. Fine contract, but not a *great* one, since he’ll be pitching at 35 years old

9:42

frank in massapequa: Jeff – big fan, love the chats.  With Andrew Miller signed, who should my Mets be targeting as an additional lefty bullpen piece?  I’ll hang up and listen.

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: You’re going to laugh, but, know who was really amazing last season?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Oliver Perez!

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Usually in these chats I insert some numbers to back up what I’m talking about. But in this instance I’m going to have all of you go to the trouble of looking up Perez yourselves

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’ll open your collective eyes

9:44

John: Was Emilio Pagan and the 38th pick of next year’s draft really worth giving up Brock Burke, Kyle Bird and Yoel Espinal for?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Bird is a relief prospect with some walk trouble. Espinal is a relief prospect with some walk trouble. The Rays also got Rollie Lacy, a starter with some strikeouts and a big-time grounder rate

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: Lacy doesn’t yet have to go on the 40-man roster

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: I like Burke as a prospect, but from a cold asset-value perspective, what’s he worth? $10 million? The draft pick would return a lot of that, and Pagan is already a big-league pitcher with a high-spin fastball

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know enough about all of the prospects — Eric Longenhagen is writing about this trade — but it doesn’t seem like the Rays did anything especially good or especially bad. They cleared a 40-man spot

9:50

Dmitry: Hi Jeff! Why do so many writers believe Harper would be a better fit for the Yanks? With his suddenly crappy defense (whats up with that??), he would need to RAKE to be as good as Manny, and he’s only done that once or twice in his career

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: People have been envisioning Harper as a Yankee for years. A lot to ask to expect them to stop

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Gigantic market. Team with more resources than anyone else. Lefty-friendly ballpark. The fit is pretty obvious

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: As far as the defense goes, I’d recommend the following article by Mike Petriello https://www.mlb.com/news/bryce-harpers-defense-a-free-agent-question/c…

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Either one of Harper or Machado would work. Andujar is just not a good third baseman

9:53

JKD: Who are the 2B that get left holding the bag?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve been easy to say Ian Kinsler, but here we are!

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll pick Brian Dozier as the guy who has to settle for less than he wants, somewhere other than where he wants. LeMahieu is too interesting, Lowrie is too good, Harrison is too versatile

9:56

Questions Abound: What would it take to pry Vlad Jr away from Toronto? Trout+Simmons?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: Trout would probably get you most of the way there by himself, and I don’t want to have to write about this

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: Dear baseball: Please do not trade Mike Trout for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the next week and a half

9:58

Red: Anibal Sanchez was worth 2.4 WAR in 2018, which is more than the 2.2 WAR he was worth across 2015-2017 combined. He ran the lowest BABIP of his career last year (.255). The previous year (2017), his ERA was 6.41 and had risen for four consecutive seasons. Why was this a multiyear candidate when guys like Harvey and Cahill were available for 1yr? Do you take Anibal over Tanner Roark, who was traded to clear room for him, in a vacuum?

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez has been healthier lately, and health mostly determines length of commitment

10:00

Purple Mays Haze: Is there any data to support the idea that a prospect loses development time if he’s on the MLB bench (vs another year in AAA). Asking for Barreto…

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not certain it’s ever been exhaustively studied, but then in Barreto’s specific case, it’s worth observing he’s gotten some winter-league time in the outfield. I think the A’s are starting to envision him as a versatile sort

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: One should also observe that Barreto last year had one walk and 29 strikeouts

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: It wouldn’t be the worst thing for Barreto to return to Triple-A, and then it wouldn’t be the worst thing if a more developed Barreto were promoted to be a multi-positional backup

10:03

Jim: Will we ever see a day when the Mets operate like a big market team again?

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Sure

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: But our concept of a big-market team is also going to change, as free agency changes

10:03

RK: What % of questions come from names you recognize?  Am I one of them?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: I try not to pay much attention to the names

10:05

Cathedral_of_Beisbol: 2/25 for Miller seems like an overpay unless Miller is his old self which, given his injury history, seems unlikely.  Thoughts?

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: In last year’s first month, Miller allowed zero runs in ten innings, with 17 strikeouts

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: His season was ultimately derailed, mostly because of a bad knee. And this gets into the fun of the market: No one actually knows if 2019 Miller will be recovered. Everyone interested has looked at the data, and they’ve looked at the medicals, but either Miller will be fine, or he won’t be. The Cardinals don’t know. The Indians don’t know

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Before the knee stuff, Miller was one of the very best relievers in all of baseball. He’s a year removed from being that guy, but it’s not like he needed elbow or shoulder surgery. If healthy, Miller could’ve gotten like $60 million. How much do you knock that down? The Cardinals knocked it down by $35 million

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: Necessarily, because the Cardinals won the bidding here, they’ve assumed the most generous position. They’ve priced in the least risk. But it’s not hard at all to see how this could work out very well for them

10:10

Alec: Where does the Cleveland baseball club go from here? Are there any moves they can make that would make them legitimate threats to the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox?

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: Those projections are imperfect, I understand, but they’re already a threat. And that’s with an incomplete outfield and an incomplete bullpen

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: Headed into next year, it feels like the Indians will actually be underrated. That is a very good baseball team. It’s a team with Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, and Clevinger

10:12

Onlydegoodcyyoung: Best move from yesterday’s spate of signings?

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: I’m a Cahill guy

10:13

Mr. F: What contract is Trout looking at in 2020?

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see what Machado and Harper do first

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s also see what Trout does first

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: But Trout would be going into his age-29 season. If no one gets to $400 million this winter, then he will down the road

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: At least now, we can look at Harper and Machado and identify negatives. For the moment, Trout doesn’t have any negatives

10:16

KJ: Is it possible when considering trades for fans to not overvalue their favorite team’s prospects, while simultaneously undervaluing the MLB player projected in return? It’s exhausting to hear how a team should go out and get a top 5 player while only giving up their 7-15 prospects and utility players…

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: You can do it, as long as you’re trading for a rental!

10:17

Dan: Is the Yankees apparent new strategy of “let’s hope free agents are willing to take less $ to play for us” viable in the long-term?  It apparently worked for Happ, but obviously not Corbin, and it just seems to be a strange way to approach free agency for a team that has the highest revenues in the sport.

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees understand you don’t build a good team through free agency. They didn’t get Severino as a free agent. They didn’t get Paxton as a free agent. They didn’t get Judge or Stanton or Hicks or Sanchez or Andujar or Gregorius or Torres as a free agent

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: Free agency gets a lot of attention during the winter because it’s the most obvious market out there of available players. But free agency is there to offer roster tweaks. It’s not where you want to find all your best players, because free agents are almost always going to be players entering decline

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: This is among the many reasons why more money has to find its way toward the start of players’ careers

10:20

Jake: What chance would you give Harper not being signed by the time players start reporting to spring training?

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: 1%

10:20

Ben: Please tell me good things about the Cubs right now. Seems like there is a lot of risk and with their unwillingness to spend, I am getting concerned. HELP!

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: There is no unwillingness to spend. They’ve just already spent. Last year’s opening-day payroll was $182 million. Now they’re projected at $209 million. They’re north of the competitive-balance-tax threshold

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs remain a good team, and I don’t consider them worse than the Brewers or Cardinals. They just don’t have much in the way of pitching-staff depth

10:23

Jack: Is there any team less afraid of trading within their division than the A’s?

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: Historically, probably not, but I think moving forward, teams are going to worry about it less and less often. It’s just not a real actual problem

10:24

Jay: Speaking of the 3 team trade, what does the future hold for Profar. Will the pitcher park in OAK, dampen his emergence?

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: There’s already evidence to believe Profar was a slight overachiever last year at the plate

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: Now, he crushed a few homers and he has a good understanding of the strike zone, so of course he could still get better

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: But he might just end up a slightly better version of Marcus Semien

10:27

What is nothing: Evan Gattis seems like he could be a fit in CLE: righthanded bat to dh 80-100 games, pinch hit the rest. Gives Bauers time off against some lefties and time in the outfield. Could be what Napoli was for ’16 CLE for ’19! How much do you see him signing for, money and years?

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Very cheap. CJ Cron was designated for assignment and he signed for $4.8 million, and compared to Gattis, Cron is younger and better

10:28

Batflips for BB: Can anything stop Jerry DiPoto from making a trade?

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:28

THE Average Sports Fan: I don’t understand the Reds-Kluber thing.  Unless he is a 25 win pitcher, why would Reds be buying short term asset like Kluber?

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, Corey Kluber is very good

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: For another thing, the Reds are gradually coming out of their ditch

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: For a third thing, I think Reds’ ownership is impatient

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: The NL Central is already crowded with good baseball teams, so it doesn’t seem like this is really the Reds’ best time to strike, but I can’t be mad at a team for trying

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s revisit if something here actually happens

10:30

Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Harper in LA seems like a terrible fit for the team, right? They already have a gazillion outfielders and too many lefties to count

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: It would only come after a series of moves that trade the outfield depth away

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: This is why the Indians and Marlins remain good trade fits

10:32

Flo: Twins still in on Cruz? If they sign him, does Tyler Austin get DFA’d?

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: Or Cron gets moved again

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: No reason for them to worry too much about either one

10:33

Cashman: What do I do if Manny takes the Philly money and why will it be dumb?

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: Why would you assume Brian Cashman would do something dumb?

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t get nearly the credit he deserves for running that organization

10:34

klof: what happens to asdrubal cabrera in philly?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: Well, he’s a free agent, so probably nothing, unless he’s planning a visit

10:36

here goes nothing: How much of my perception of a light return for Profar is based on a) limited team control, b) injury record, c) high variance, d) Emilio Pagan is good, e) Eli White is good, f) other factors

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: What is DJ LeMahieu going to find as a free-agent second baseman? 2/$25 million? Something like that? Profar has two years of control, for which he’ll get paid something like $10 million. He might be a better hitter than LeMahieu, but he’s a worse defender. The value here is lower than you’d think

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Of course the possibility exists that Profar will improve, since he’s not even 26, but the Rangers weren’t going to be able to spin him for a blockbuster. He’s just not that kind of player

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Burke is pretty cool. White is interesting

10:39

Grant: Will the Cubs be the next team in the NL Central to play seller?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: No

10:42

Cardno: Fill int he blank challenge! Stroman + _____ for Kyle Tucker.

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: Danny Jansen is too steep, but by less than you’d think!

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s combine Reese McGuire and Nate Pearson…?

10:44

Rays: Should we be happy with the deal we made?

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: This is a trade where it would be super helpful to have access to minor-league Trackman. I can see all the surface numbers, but I’d like to know what guys like Burke and Lacy actually throw

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: I certainly don’t think the trade is bad, and the Rays get to kick some 40-man decisions on down the road. The draft pick is valuable

10:46

Bob: How much more do the Phillies have to offer machado to get him over the Yankees?

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: Could well be as little as $1 million

10:46

Rox Fan: Daniel Murphy in Colorado means Desmond to the OF and McMahon /Hampson in a 2B timeshare?

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: Sure seems that way for now. Desmond will probably split(ish) time with Tapia

10:47

Nathan: Oakland has finally started to make some news. Is a SP on a 2 year deal next?

10:47

Jeff Sullivan: They should just go in on Clay Buchholz and Shelby Miller. Really lean into the risk

10:48

Jerry Dipoto: What do you figure the surplus value on Haniger is? Or put another way, do you think the industry views him as a 3, 4 or 5 WAR player, in the near future?

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s probably seen as about a 3.5 WAR player for the short-term. A bit of upside beyond that

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: It seems like he should be a better outfielder than he is. Good athlete

10:50

Barbados_slim: Who will most likely play 3rd base for the padres?

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: Right now, I think the bulk of the time ends up going to Urias, but I’m not ruling out a big move or two that change the roster picture

10:51

SeagerTurnerHarper: To make room for Harper, is Joc Pederson someone the Dodgers might look to move? What could they get for him?

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: Yes; not that much

10:51

Onlydegoodcyyoung: Derek Jeter suddenly remembers where he put the extra $5 billion he’d stashed away for emergencies. would signing Harper AND Machado make Miami a contender?

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: No, but it would be awesome

10:52

Casual fan: Grandal to the Angels a foregone conclusion now? They have the money left in the budget and that is the last glaring hole they have that has not been addressed. One could say “proven closer” but based on Eppler’s comments, that is not something he is looking for or really wants to pay any kind of money for

10:52

Jeff Sullivan: Grandal would be an excellent fit there, but I don’t know what his demands might be, so there’s a chance the Angels stick with the one-year idea and go get Cervelli instead

10:53

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: NYY spent 90 min with Manny. Phillies 4 hours plus dinner.  Does this mean anything?

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: If it means anything, it might mean the Phillies feel like they have more convincing to do

10:54

2-D: Safeco to T-Mobile, any opinion on that?

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: No, although the magenta lighting isn’t really in keeping with the team’s familiar brand

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how you keep saying “true to the blue” when your stadium is a lit-up pink

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: T-Mobile is a company I don’t give a shit about. On the other hand, Safeco is also a company I don’t give a shit about

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Hooray for companies

10:56

Peter: Any panic on Harper/Boaras’ part?  Reports are that the Phils prefer Machado.  Conventional wisdom is that the Yankees do, too (and no real scuttlebutt on Harper to the Yanks) and the White Sox have historically not given out uber-deals.  Or will Boras get bailed out, like he always does?

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: No panic

10:56

Tanner^2: Will the Nationals add another starter? Even with Sanchez they seem very short on depth

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: I think Ross and Fedde are interesting enough as 5/6 options. If need be, they can always go get a back-of-the-rotation starter in the middle of the year. Come playoff time, they’d be leaning on Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin anyway

10:57

Yisus: Who do you think is going to win the NL East?

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: Right now, Nationals

10:57

Jeff: Why do the Rockies continue to sink money into first basemen when they just got an .839 OPS out of an NRI in Mark Reynolds 2 years ago and have a viable controlled option there in Ryan McMahon? A 1B playing 81 games at Coors should not be an a major area of investment, right?

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: McMahon can also take time at second. It’s not like Hampson is some sure thing

10:58

Casual fan: Will Eppler’s new staff be able to get Harvey’s spin rate up on his FB? IF they can, he would be a steal

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: I am virtually certain they will try. I am less certain they will succeed

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Going to be a very interesting thing to keep an eye on, and we should get meaningful results very early in the year

10:58

Old Timer: What are the A’s doing regarding SP?  They can’t expect to sign all dirt cheap 5th starters and have lightning strike in the same place twice, can they?

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: They sure can!

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: Plus, don’t forget about Luzardo and Puk

10:59

Casual fan: How well do Cahill and Harvey need to pitch for Angels to give each of them a QO that they would not take?

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: In Cahill’s case, unbelievably well

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: In Harvey’s case, more believably well

11:00

Thanos’ Pinky Promise: What do you make out of all the recent Mike Minor rumblings?

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: That Mike Minor is left-handed and on a bad team

11:00

Christian: Are you surprised that the Cubs haven’t even gone as far as to make a statement after the additional details of Russell’s abuse have come out?

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: I am not surprised

11:02

Lunar verLander: In light of Joe Smith’s ruptured Achilles tendon, what’s the worst sounding (non-fatal) injury you’ve heard a baseball player getting?

11:03

Jason N: Preller/Padres have made zero crazy deals this offseason (think: Hosmer or Galvis).  They haven’t made any trades to fill needs when the prospect returns ended up being something they could easily afford (think:  Paxton or Profar).  Do you think this means Dave Cameron’s analytics dept has AJ’s ear and guiding the restraint?  Or something different like overvaluing their own prospects?

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: Eric Hosmer didn’t sign until the middle of February

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t take surface-level inactivity as a sign of actual inaction

11:04

Billy’s Beanes: What position do you think Profar plays the most in next year?  The obvious one is 2B, which blocks Barretto a bit, but do you think there’s any chance he does a tour of the outfield or fills in for Semien here and there?

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: Definitely 2B. Barreto would be the guy moving around

11:05

AJ: Has boras priced Harper out of the market? Is that why he has virtually no suitors?

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: Bryce Harper has suitors

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: And anyone who’s going to cost that much will have a limited pool of candidate teams

11:06

Cito’s Mustache: Royals Review stated in a recent article that minor league wRC+ at FanGraphs adjusts for league but not ballpark factors. Is this true? Considering how extreme some MiLB parks lean towards the hitter/pitcher side, any plans to account for this in the future? Thanks!

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: It’s true that minor-league wRC+ is not park-adjusted. It is something we’ve talked about working on

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. Next week, no chat! Holiday week. We’ll do it again in the new year, and until then, be well and have great days

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Alby

“Philadelphia’s default is angry, regardless of whether you try to appease them.”

I’ve lived in the Philly metro area all my life. Truer words were never written. Naturally, I’m ticked off about it.