Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/16/18

February 16, 2018

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:02	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:02	Fredrick: Hi Jeff! Do you know when the pre-season Depth Chart prjections will be updated to include ZiPS? Also, do you know if steamer or ZiPS has taken into account the new humidor at chase field? Thanks

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine the projections will adjust themselves for the humidor

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: As for when ZiPS will arrive, I don’t have a specific date, but the last few years everything has been folded in by the beginning of March, and I think this year ZiPS is slightly ahead of schedule

9:03

Jack: Toronto’s chances of keeping Stroman past his team control years don’t seem very good, given they’ve already had to go to arbitration in both years he’s been eligible so far and he tweeted he’ll “never forget” the things they said about him at the hearing. He’s also apparently on bad terms with Aaron Sanchez for whatever reason now, who used to a very close friend of his, and how thin skinned he is and how he’s constantly taking everything as a slight against him sounds like it’s starting to wear on some people with the team. If the Jays aren’t contending this year, do you think they look to move him? He’s a good pitcher, but he doesn’t seem likely to stick around long term, and he also seems like a bit of a headache

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: First things first — I don’t think these situations really end up having long-term impacts, most of the time. Arbitration can be ugly, but when Ben Lindbergh has looked into this in the past, he hasn’t found that players who go through arbitration are more likely to leave

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Players and teams have relationships for a while. Relationships involve disputes. It happens; Stroman would still feel some kind of internal loyalty toward the club and his teammates

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Now that all being said, it’s not hard at all to see Stroman becoming available in July if the Jays are out of it. Of course, that depends on how badly they’re out of it, and on how Stroman has performed, but he could be their own version of Chris Archer or whatever

9:06	Vargas, baby, Vargas: who is the odd man out in nym rotation? Matz, Wheeler or too early to tell?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Too early to tell for now, but, very obviously, the Mets are going to need more than five starters anyway

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Matz is coming back from surgery. Wheeler is coming back from his own health problems, which followed surgery. The Mets’ actual opening-day rotation doesn’t mean much of anything to me beyond Syndergaard and deGrom

9:08	Old Man Manny: Anything the Dodgers, Astros, or Cubs can do before Opening Day that would significantly increase their odds of winning the World Series?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs are presumably finished with the big stuff after Darvish. The Astros could go get, say, Realmuto. Or the Dodgers could get someone like Archer. Wouldn’t move the odds more than a percentage point or two, but those are impact moves that remain possible

9:11	Tater: With the Vargas and Cashner signings, can we say that ~180 average-ish, low upside innings is worth roughly 8M in free agency? That definitely seems cheaper than in years past…

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Vargas is coming off a 112 xFIP-. Cashner, 121. I know that Vargas had a great April and Cashner had a low ERA, but I don’t think either one of these guys can rightly be considered average-ish. They’re fringe starters

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: A year ago, Travis Wood got 2/$12m

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Jason Hammel got 2/$16m

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Hammel and Vargas presented similar cases, so they’ve received similar contracts

9:14	Ben: Jaime Garcia, Vargas or Cashner? Do you like any of these deals more or less then the others?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Somehow Garcia got the smallest contract of the three while being the best pitcher

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I know he has a bumpy health history, but so do the other two

9:17	Matt: hey Jeff. Thoughts on the Jason Vargas deal?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: At least Andrew Cashner is analytically interesting

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: The value in Vargas isn’t really about Vargas, in a way; it’s about the reliability of innings. Having him around means fewer innings might have to go to zeros, even if Vargas is just a one or a two

9:18	Bork: Will Cashner save the O’s?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll actually cost the O’s! Sixteen million dollars!

9:20

Ross: Why has Sergio Romo had to settle for small one-year deals in back-to-back offseasons? He has a long history of being an effective reliever, a 2.69 ERA and 2.88 FIP over a 10-year career, lots of postseason experience and success if you care about that sort of thing. He was going through a rough stretch as a Dodger with balls flying out at an insane rate against him, but that corrected itself after he was traded to the Rays and then he got back to being very good. Seems like someone the Nationals, or even the Giants, should’ve signed at that price, no? They’re probably just gonna end up looking to trade for a guy like that at the deadline

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I like Romo enough because he still misses bats, but these days he tops out in the mid-80s and teams feel like they have to be careful not to show him too many lefties. He’s unusual and he’s kind of a specialist, so teams just aren’t willing to give him multiple years at a time

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: This is where Steve Cishek will end up in a couple of seasons

9:23	Lou : The Dodgers value depth and probably don’t like the idea of spending $20 mil for zero return on the field, are the chances Matt Kemp makes the Opening Day roster getting better?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: I think what’s changed here is the urgency. The Dodgers are like $17 million under the luxury tax. Before Darvish signed with the Cubs, you could easily see why the Dodgers would want to shed Kemp’s salary. But now — what would they be clearing for? They’re not going to sign Arrieta or Hosmer. They don’t seem to need that flexibility

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Dodgers actually like or want Matt Kemp, in particular. But now they have even less reason to package a good young player along with him in a salary dump. They just don’t need it like they might’ve before. So for that reason alone, Kemp’s chances of making the roster are higher than they were, since they were about 0%

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Even if Kemp does make the team, though, I don’t think he lasts very long

9:27

manse gray: There is talk that a team desperately! needs! a power hitter, yet that team won 90+ games with its particular combination of pre-game preparation, pitching, defense, offense, baserunning, in-game management, and luck and despite the below average overall players’ performance by offensive statistics and advanced metrics and, by some accounts, despite clubhouse dysfunction. Wouldn’t the expected current year win total be similar, given: all players return; positive and negative regression (including factors for age and injury) of those players and of their current season scheduled opponents (who may have added or subtracted players) while controlling for the difference in inter-league opponents and luck?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox are very good

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re quite as good as the Yankees, but this is an excellent baseball team. There’s a fair offer out there for J.D. Martinez, but if it’s not good enough for him, the Sox can survive. They’ll be great for three and a half months, then they can try to trade for whatever else they might need

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: David Price is the huge question mark. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if, in a few months, they need a pitcher more than they need a hitter

9:29	Tater: Landing spot for Greg Holland? I’ve felt like it was STL from the start even after stories came out about them being not too hot on him.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I honestly don’t know. It’s a complete mystery to me

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s where the Nationals go if they don’t go for Arrieta, but in that case Holland wouldn’t be closing, so is that something he’d really want?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Random dark horse: the A’s have budget room left to spend, and no one to spend it on

9:32	Hunky Dory: How should Mets fans feel about their offseason, now that a reasonable amount of money has been spent, if mostly on middling players like Vargas, Bruce, and Frazier?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: The Mets have been in the right position to tinker and try to add. But their season is also probably going to come down to Conforto, deGrom, Syndergaard, and a few of the other starters. Not a whole lot you can do about health, during the winter — it’ll either be there or it won’t. The real impact players were already on the roster. They’re the question marks. Everything else has just lifted the team’s floor

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Like, it feels a little strange to take at-bats away from Wilmer Flores, but on the other hand, now that’s a good hitter who’s available off the bench as a multi-position reserve. Pretty neat

9:34	Tim: Have you had a moment yet this year where you’ve seen a picture of a guy at spring training and been like “Oh yeah, this guy’s with this team now”? For me, I had totally forgotten that Ron Gardenhire is managing the Tigers now

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I had too until your comment

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: My job is to be aware of everything, but out of the 30 teams this season, I expect to pay attention to the Tigers the least

9:35	Hannah Hochevar: Given he still throws hard, is it possible Cashner can get his k’s back?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Some of them, yeah. It might not be a coincidence that he, Hamels, and Darvish all lost a bunch of strikeouts while pitching for the Rangers last season

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Cashner’s bat-missing slider kind of disappeared as it turned more into a cutter. Can probably be at least partially recovered

9:37

Philosoraptor: Jeff, you are a Very Smart Baseballman. Today, you would almost certainly be a terrible GM, because that is a really specific and hard job. If you were transported 20 years back in time, say, with a secret Fangraphs/Statcast/modern baseball stats machine, how awesome would you be? The knowledge would make you really good right

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: 20 years ago most of us here, including the readers, would’ve been able to build an MLB juggernaut

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I mean that in all sincerity!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe we wouldn’t have the necessary people skills, I don’t know, but just in terms of analysis and roster-building, we would’ve been so far ahead of the curve

9:40	Kareem Hunt: Has there been any news on Sano? Good bet for suspension?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t seen an update, but I know a month or so ago the team said that ideally they’d have an answer by the start of spring training. Something will probably come out soon, and I would expect that Sano will be suspended

9:40	lagniappe: Jeff, are you going to continue KATOH or is that lost forever? What if Pecota had been lost when Nate left?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: KATOH belongs to Chris, and Chris has been hired by somebody else

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Eventually someone new might come along who does statistical prospect analysis, but for the time being, I guess it’s just up to Carson’s fringe five

9:42	Zonk: Gerardo Parra is out 4-6 weeks…even if the Rockies are kind of broke, why not get some cheap depth? Thinking something Seth Smith or Cameron Maybin-esque

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably focusing instead on a resolution at first base, since that could affect their outfield depth on account of Ian Desmond

9:45	Sean R: Jeff, I need your breakdown of Nick Franklin rejoining the Brewers

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Technically, between 2016 and 2017, Franklin’s wRC+ dropped from 109 to 48

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: But in 2017, he actually posted the higher expected wOBA!

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He’s still not actually good, but since he turns only 27 in a couple of weeks, whatever, there’s worse depth to have in Triple-A

9:46	Charlie: Why aren’t types of outs considered in calculating wOBA and similar stats? Don’t strikeouts have different base-out implications than flyouts and groundouts?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: All the outs are similar. Strikeouts present basically no advancement opportunities, but ball-in-play outs can turn into double plays

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The benefit, in other words, is statistically negligible

9:48	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How cocky is too cocky? Asking for Brent Honeyw…er, a friend.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19990324&slug…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: On Ryan Anderson:

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: “”Typical” may not be the most apt description for the storkish kid, now 19, who showed equal parts precociousness and braggadocio. Struggling to find his place among the veterans, the man-child misspoke badly when he stated that he had “pretty much dominated” the hitters one day in batting practice early last spring.

Those hitters, including Alex Rodriguez, Jay Buhner and Ken Griffey Jr., the latter leaving after a handful of pitches, were taking the first swings at live pitching after a winter off. Anderson had been throwing in the bullpen for 10 days.

His comment was not received well by the Mariners, who quickly showed the raw pitcher a rookie’s place was one of quiet observation. They rode him hard. One day, they left a case of baseballs next to his locker in mock expectation of getting him to autograph them. “The Dominator,” they called him.”

9:50	Zach: so the Blue Jays offseason consists of Granderson, Grichuk, Solarte, Diaz, now Jaime Garcia…..how much more blah can that get?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The Blue Jays are trying to transition to an imminent younger phase and instead of bottoming out they currently project to be in the thick of the AL wild-card hunt

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: They could probably use, say, another good reliever or something, but given that the Jays weren’t going to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox, this isn’t so bad

9:51	Davy: You’re still here!

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The Athletic hasn’t even sent me an email!

9:52	Zonk: Do you hate offseason grades? Drop us one on the Cubs offseason if you please

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Probably A-, maybe B+, but the only real negativity is that I’m not a Tyler Chatwood believer like they are

9:53	Old Man Manny: Has this off-season been slow enough to make you excited for the first two innings of the first spring training game? I hate spring training games generally, but this year I’m pumped up enough to start my own spring training fantasy league.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really care about spring-training games at all, but I am excited to have stuff to read that isn’t just about the free-agent market

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Give me fluff!

9:54	Hunky Dory: Yankees fans should be ecstatic that the Jays signed a soft-tossing lefty to face the all-righty Murderer’s Row multiple times this year, right?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: That would be an over-the-top response

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I envy anyone who could feel genuine ecstasy about something like that

9:56	Tater: Who do you think is the best pitcher in the BAL pen and why is it Mychal Givens?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I love Mychal Givens

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Although at the same time I’ve had to laugh at rumors that have suggested he’s “untouchable”

9:57	TC: If i’m watching 2 guys sitting at a table, squabbling about how they are going to divvy up my money, why am I supposed to care which guy gets more of it? Where does this narrative come from that if I’m not “on the players side” then I am :on the owners side”?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Like everything else in America, baseball is proving incapable of avoiding polarization

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: That being said, those interested in true fairness would give less of a shit about those two guys and more of a shit about the third guy, sitting at a nearby table, eating a quarter of a peanut-butter sandwich