Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/3/15

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live baseball chat

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Approximately nothing has happened in baseball for a couple of weeks, so this ought to be gripping

9:04	Comment From Tony G. Are you surprised that Shields still hasn’t signed?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I think everybody is. I usually don’t worry about these things when they drag out, but there’s something about the calendar flipping to February

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s in some way an encouraging reflection of the baseball market — teams are less willing to pay for what a player has already done. With Shields, you sell the durability, the innings totals, but teams now are genuinely afraid of what all that durability might mean now

9:06	Comment From Ozzie Guillen Who is your starting 2B for the White Sox on Opening Day? Micah? Sanchez? Bonifacio? Beckham? Roberto Alomar?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Miserably, it might very well be Beckham

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I think Bonifacio is going to be most valuable moving around, so I don’t like tying him to one position like that

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I do see the faint upsides in Johnson and Sanchez, but, for example, Sanchez just swung at 41% of pitches out of the strike zone in his debut

9:08	Comment From TommieAgees Does Grandal get regular duty over Ellis?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, as long as he’s not broken

9:09	Comment From Corn on the Cobb Does Alex Cobb have what it takes to be a Top-5 SP?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but he wont’ be one

9:09	Comment From Ozzie Guillen Who wins the AL Central?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Tigers by a game or two over the Indians

9:09	Comment From Haddaway What is love?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: the reason for being

9:09	Comment From guest After Matthew recovers from the soul crushing defeat will you guys do a Ussm podcast?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Getting back into it Thursday. We got knocked off course by the holidays

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: But, FWIW, no one can ever recover from a loss like that. Not in full. One becomes a changed person.

9:10	Comment From Dejablu2 What do you foresee as Dayan Viciedo’s team and role?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know the team but the role won’t be significant. He shouldn’t be on your radar

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I could see the Phillies, just because, yeah, why not?

9:11	Comment From AL Pitching Coach What do you think of young pitchers like Odorizzi and McHugh in 2015? Do they take the next step forward?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I dont’ think McHugh could take another step forward. Guy was 20% better than average. He achieved his peak — that’s incredible enough

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I think Odorizzi will be better, but I dont’ think he’s going to be the best starter on the staff

9:12	Comment From Andy The baseball equivalent of To Kill A Mockingbird suddenly and unexpectedly getting a sequel is __________

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: footage from ten different angles of the called shot?

9:13	Comment From kris hi jeff why not run the ball with marshawn

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: defense expected run the ball with marshawn

9:13	Comment From guest Will Shields sign a 1yr deal or wait it out?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get multiple years. I don’t think he can afford to bet on himself gaining more valuable between now and next offseason

9:14	Comment From Also Jeff What are your thoughts on the outlook of the Tigers bullpen

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Soria could be that bad again, so I think we’re looking at a roughly average bullpen, decent enough to work but with just enough blowups that it doesn’t shake the reputation totally

9:15	Comment From Dave The Miami Marlins- finishing right around .500 or finishing in a Wild Card spot?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: .500

9:17	Comment From EL ASHABAN Thoughts on Tony Cingrani? Is there any chance he is trying to develop additional pitches?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty clear evidence, right? Last year he was a three-pitch pitcher with an extremely occasional curveball as well

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he trusts his secondary stuff enough to go to when he’s behind in the count. Which is a problem, because he doesn’t have particularly awesome fastball command. Seems like he’ll continue to be a No. 4 starter or so with promise he doesn’t tap into often enough

9:20	Comment From cobinson ramo who do i talk to about getting Seattle to play Sade’s Smooth Operator every time Robinson Cano does something cool?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Kevin Martinez?

9:20	Comment From Curtis Papelbon opens the season in _______________________

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Milwaukee seems appropriate to me

9:21	Comment From Allen R. At what price point do you think Rickie Weeks could be had?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Almost any? A few million dollars. He has like no market

9:21	Comment From Seff Jullivan Which total will be higher, the number of Shields questions asked this offseason, or the number of Shield’s pitches thrown this coming season?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Are people actually that interested in James Shields? I’ve gotten the opposite vibe.

9:21	Comment From Ozzie Guillen Any chance Samardzija doesn’t reach FA?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Some chance; is very small chance

9:22	Comment From Wrens Bleeding Hart Less likely to finish the 2015 season in a Braves uniform: Mike Minor, BJ Upton or Chris Johnson?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Upton. If he doesn’t show something in April or May, I think he’s just cut

9:22	Comment From Ozzie Guillen Rookie of the Year favorites?

9:22	Comment From George is Curious Care to offer your early AL/NL predictions for 2015 ROY, MVP and Cy Young?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Well I’m going to have to look up the rookie eligibilities here in a minute but my other picks are satisfactorily boring

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Felix, Trout, Kershaw…

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: yeah, no, still gotta say McCutchen

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I guess Bryant and Castillo for Rookies of the Year

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I would take Bryant narrowly over Yasmany Tomas

9:25	Comment From Curtis Other than the current era, what is your favorite baseball era/decade? Why?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Well I’ve only really been alive and paying attention for this era and for the previous era

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: And I like this era a lot more than the previous era

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: So I guess my answer to your question is “nope”

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care much about baseball history. I probably will at some point, but the present is so damn interesting.

9:27	Comment From keeper Thanks for having us. Did the cubs sign Motte as some shaky insurance for Rondon? Or is Motte a lottery ticket because he’s coming back from TJS?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They signed Motte because, before he was hurt, he was really super good

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It helps that he’s closer insurance, but it’s really just a flier on a guy with talented and a depressed market because of the operation

9:29

Comment From Jack
Would it make sense for both parties for the Nats to offer Stras a 4 year (5th option/30 mil) deal at around 100 mil. Allows Stras to hit free agency before 30 so he can get another huge deal. Removes the risk of being hurt over the next 2 years. Nats get the prime years and can maximize scherzer/Stras front end to basically a decade of playoffs.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I can see the argument, but you’re always contending against the Boras factor — as is, Strasburg is lined up to be a free agent going into his age-28 season, so there’s the potential there for a historic contract in terms of total value

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He’s already signed for more than $7 million this year, meaning he’s already basically guaranteed to get at least that much next year, so this isn’t a life-security concern. Strasburg could exceed a Scherzer contract down the road, and that’s the draw for him

9:33	Comment From candres What do you think the future holds for Elvis Andrus? He hasn’t become the player it looks like he was turning into when TEX signed him to that big deal, and now they’ve got Profar on the way and Odor looking pretty good.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be surprised if Odor got traded. Obviously, any of them could get traded, but Andrus kind of has some of that heart-and-soul thing going on, and he’s still just 26. Proven everyday player. The other two, not so much

9:34	Comment From Wrens Bleeding Hart rate 0-100 Braves offseason.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: 70?

9:35	Comment From Curtis If Zach Walters turned into Super-Flexible “Zobrist” and somehow got 450 PAs, could he hit 30 hrs? 25?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Bet heavily against

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The following players, last year, batted at least 300 times, and had a 450-PA pace of at least 25 home runs:

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Chris Carter Edwin Encarnacion Nelson Cruz David Ortiz Giancarlo Stanton George Springer Jose Abreu Devin Mesoraco Troy Tulowitzki

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: By the way, chat reminder!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: If you find that the questions and answers are getting out of order, you can simply refresh the window

9:38	Comment From Dave If Morse gets injured (as he is wont to do) do the Marlins try Stanton or Yelich at 1B and give Ichiro an outfield spot? Redmond isn’t smart enough to do a Baker/Bour platoon, right?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: No, they’re not going to mess around with Stanton or Yelich like that

9:38	Comment From AA True or False: Norris wins AL ROY?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: False

9:39	Comment From semperty Is there something about Grandal’s profile that explains his 2014 struggles, or was that mostly just bad luck?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Did he struggle? He finished up with a 111 wRC+

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Started hitting the ball in the air more often, started making less contact. It actually seems a little like he tried to do the Devin Mesoraco thing, only with sub-Mesoraco-level results

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty strong second half, if that’s the kind of thing you care about

9:41	Comment From gump Should boston wait until midseason to trade for an ace? Only need one during the postseason…

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t really need one during the postseason. They’re just helpful is all.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: At this point I think it’s worth Boston’s time to see how this rotation shakes out, and then come June or July they can re-evaluate the market while also looking toward guys like Owens and Rodriguez

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: The slate of position players is so strong they can afford a somewhat substandard rotation

9:42	Comment From Terrible Ted Steamer projects only a 2 HR increase for Arenado over an extra ~150 PA. What about his profile indicates that his power wont increase?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: The previous year, where he homered 10 times

9:43	Comment From Scott Does Dillon Gee ever get traded? If so, what is his trade value?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, quite low!

9:43	Comment From TommieAgees Is Byron Buxton on the verge of being labeled “injury -prone?”

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, but it’s not like that’s the final word. A label doesn’t mean anything in terms of actual health.

9:44	Comment From Coco Crisps Breakfast Bits Who has the best performance for the 2015 A’s – Phegley, Nolin, or Davis?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Davis

9:45	Comment From Bubba Starling % chance that Eric Hosmer “breaks out” this year? Moose? % chance that the playoff run was an aberration and they both go back to pre-AS break form?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think Hosmer gets back to what he already was, before last season

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Moustakas, I’ve seen enough. He’s not good. I don’t think he’ll become good.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a really interesting Steamer case. Career 82 wRC+, last year 76. Steamer projects 102. I think that’s crazy.

9:46	Comment From RJ Hi Jeff, in your “So you’re about to pitch to Pablo Sandoval” piece, you quote figures on Pablo’s slugging percentage on pitches in the strike zone, using Baseball Savant’s pitch fx tool. How did you retrieve this numbers? Is it only on balls hit in play or all balls swung at or…?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pitches that end at-bats, so it’s going to include strikeouts

9:47	Comment From Ozzie Guillen Best rotation in the AL?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll start with the Indians

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: it becomes the White Sox if Rodon shows up and is effective

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: or it’s the Mariners if either Walker or Paxton takes a step forward

9:48	Comment From Brian Thought: implement pace-of-game changes, but only on weekdays, when it matters how late I am out. Friday-Saturday-Sunday games, who cares if they go long? But a Tuesday game that doesn’t wrap until 10:30 makes it much harder given most folks work the next day.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Well, there are still families with kids in attendance most games

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: and I dont’ think you want to implement something with deliberate inconsistency. If you end up with quicker games during the week, and you leave the weekends alone, for one thing that’s weird for the players and the umpires, and for another, fans will start to notice how much longer the weekend games are, and they’ll begin to demand changes anyway

9:50	Comment From Dan Duquette I am sure this has been asked/answered in prior chats but when does James Shields become a seemingly good value? 3 years/$42 million? I can’t find what Dave Cameron pegged him for but I know he crowd sourced at 5 years for $90 million.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Let me run some quick numbers!

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Figure Shields will be worth, what, 3 – 3.5 wins next year?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Kudos to anyone who could get him for like 3/50 or 4/60

9:51	Comment From guest will Cobb be the best pitcher on that staff?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Best starter

9:51	Comment From Jordan Can ZIPS be just released in full yet?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: It’s close

9:51	Comment From Billy Beane Do you see Clippard running away with the A’s closing gig, or is he simply keeping the seat warm until Doolittle returns?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Keeping warm. Really handy insurance though, obviously

9:52	Comment From _David_ Over/under career WAR, Patrick Kivlehan, 1

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Over by a few

9:53	Comment From guest Off hand do you know the last time the M’s opened up at home? seems like its a while

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: 2008. Erik Bedard threw 106 pitches over 5 innings

9:54	Comment From Prich Life Superiority Guy checking in: I’m as big of a sports fan as they come, and I gotta say: If a sporting event over which you have no control changes who you are as a person, time to reevaluate life

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Literally everything you experiences changes who you are as a person

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Sports don’t dramatically change who you are as a person, but it would be silly to pretend like that Super Bowl isn’t going to have small effects on hundreds of thousands or millions of people

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Those same people are going to think about different things from this point forward

9:56	Comment From Bert Why have the A’s not traded Eric O’Flaherty yet? Cutting his salary helps get you a lot closer to Olivera, and you’ve got Abad/Nolin around to work out of the pen.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really think they even need to cut salary

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: If they did, I suspect they’ve already considered the O’Flaherty angle. This is Billy Beane we’re talking about

9:58	Comment From Terrible Ted Do you know any of the specifics of why the Rogers Centre is getting new turf in Toronto?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Beyond what’s already known?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: The previous turf was getting old, and stiff, and players hated it. Toronto is transitioning toward actual grass, and this is a stopgap